Conference Finals

Impartial conjecture and estimation as to the outcomes of the National Basketball Association’s initial round of postseason matchups.

Eastern Conference

Miami Heat (66-16) vs Indiana Pacers (49-32)

During the LeBron James era in Miami, every time that the Heat has gone 1-0 down in a playoff series, they have gone on to win in five games. They maintained this outstanding record of resilience in euthanizing a damaged Chicago Bulls unit, despite the best efforts of Nate Robinson, Carlos Boozer and especially Joakim Noah. As this unfolded Indiana were busy grinding Carmelo Anthony and his Knicks into submission. Chicago can be consoled by the knowledge that things will be better next year with a hopefully fit and healthy Derrick Rose. New York will lament missed opportunities.

Undoubtedly this will be a physical battle. Both teams thrive in tight, gritty matches, though there aren’t many who can challenge Miami enough for such a game to transpire. These Pacers can, however. They were the most efficient defensive team in the league this season. Guarding LeBron James will likely be Paul George, with Roy Hibbert and David West covering the paint. There is no more difficult task in basketball, but George is more capable than most. Indiana doesn’t always score a lot of points – granted they don’t always have to – and they lack a clear lead scorer. If they are forced to play catchup against Miami’s big three, things may get messy. If they can take LeBron out of the game, or in the very least minimise his regularly enormous influence, maybe things turn out different.

This is a very good matchup. The Indiana Pacers are one of the few teams who can give Miami a real challenge. Miami will always be favourites, but at least there is the semblance of a possibility of an upset here (unlike the Milwaukee series). Indiana is 6-0 at home this postseason, and Miami is unbeaten away from home. Something has to give. The Heat eliminated Indiana in six games last year, helped by an injury to Chris Bosh. Both teams have improved other the ensuing twelve months. Injuries have influenced many a team’s playoff chances this year, and Miami are sweating on how Dwayne Wade’s knee holds up. Wade is the second most important player on this roster. He is LeBron’s right hand man and could be a franchise player on any team. His influence cannot be overstated. LeBron James cannot win the title on his own. He may get the headlines, but his supporting cast are invaluable. Chris ‘Birdman’ Andersen is becoming quite the cult hero in southern Florida.

I’d love to pick the upset but it wouldn’t be right. This is so clearly Miami’s year. They simple have to win. The amateur sports historian in me wants nothing more than to see it happen just so I can say that I witnessed history. I wrote about LeBron James’ dominance and the emerging legacy of this Heat team a few weeks back which covered these ideas (check it out, it was one of my better ones), but the sentiment deserves repeating: This is one of the great team seasons in NBA history.

Wildcard’s Pick: Miami in 6

Western Conference

San Antonio Spurs (58-24) vs Memphis Grizzlies (56-26)

One can’t help but wonder how whether this admittedly strong Memphis team would have been able to topple the defending Western Conference champion Oklahoma City if Russell Westbrook had been fit. Nonetheless, you cannot argue that Memphis have not earned this. They outplayed the Thunder pretty comprehensively in the end, after a strong comeback in their first round series with the LA Clippers. When they traded away Rudy Gay earlier in the season, it never looked like they could be competing for a conference title so imminently but that just goes to show how unpredictable these things can be.

San Antonio meanwhile held off a confident Golden State team to make it back to the Western finals in back to back years. That Golden State team may not be the finished article yet, but they certainly look like they’ll be a force in years to come. Coach Mark Jackson has done an outstanding job in assembling this young team of sharp shooters and they can hold their heads high despite their elimination. I mentioned in my first round preview that Golden State was a team without a star, but in the past month we have witnessed the emergence of Steph Curry as a premier guard in this league. Although I do wonder: Why Steph and not Steve? Kinda odd. A quick google search reveals that his full name is actually Wardell Stephen Curry II, so maybe that gives some insight into the situation. At least he spells Stephen correctly. Let’s get back to the matter at hand.

San Antonio will have to overcome their third distinctive challenge of the postseason. The Lakers were a complete bust. Golden State was a young, fast paced offensive team. Memphis is a big, clinical, defensive powerhouse. The case against the Spurs for a couple of years has been their age. Tim Duncan and Manu Ginobli may be playing out the latter acts of their storied careers, but the former especially is almost as productive as ever. Tony Parker is the key player for Gregg Popovich’s boys in the way that he controls this offense. The former Mr Eva Longoria has struggled with injuries most of this season, and his health may prove crucial in the outcome of this one.

These are unchartered grounds for Memphis. Never has this team gone progressed so far in a playoff series. San Antonio, meanwhile, has been here eight times in the past fifteen years. History means little once the game gets underway though. The season series was split two games apiece, and this one looks sure to go down to the wire also. Marc Gasol and Tim Duncan will be arm wrestling for control of the rebounds in a mouth-watering clash between two of the NBA’s best big men.

Memphis tamed Chris Paul and Kevin Durant on their path to here, but San Antonio is a better rounded team. They have the depth of talent and the experience to overcome Memphis’ stifling defensive pressure. I am tempted to tip the Grizzlies, but so long as the Spurs’ stars stay fit, I think they will be heading for another shot at the title.

Wildcard’s Pick: San Antonio in 7