NBA Finals - The Final Countdown with Laker Eight
So here we are. After around 9 months, dozens of guys ejected for hating on Steven Adams and hundreds of games we’ve finally reached the business end of the business end of the season. More than any other time of the NBA season it’s the point when you’ll find yourself passionately supporting a team that for the other 95% of the time you’ll hate, because you hate the team they’re playing 96% of the time. Facebook timelines become clogged with people’s opinions, forums become overloaded with dissections of every minute detail of every game, and of course The Niche Cache is going to present you with a handy dandy guide to it all. Settle in, chuck a few cheeky bets on at the TAB and prepare for the magic that will be the 2014 NBA Finals.
Road to the Finals
Miami: No matter what way you look at it, the Heat had a relatively straight-forward run to the finals. For starters, they’re playing in the woefully un-competitive Eastern conference, where there are only really a handful of teams who aren’t complete garbage – but nonetheless, they seemed content to conserve their energy and let Indiana nab the 1 seed. The Bobcats weren’t much of a challenge (surprise surprise), being dispatched 4-0, before the experiment that was the Nets finally fell apart for good and they too fell in a gentleman’s sweep, 4-1. Finally, the team that was designed to beat Miami, the team that had been prepping for this moment all season, the team that was looking for revenge for last year’s game 7 loss... well, I’m sure we all know about the complete implosion that happened to the Pacers. So after beating Indiana in 6, Miami return to their 4th straight finals, joining the Lakers and Celtics as the only team to reach that illustrious milestone.
Spurs: Over in the West, San Antonio faced a fairly tricky run to reach their 6th NBA Finals. After somehow steam-rolling the conference despite playing their stars for limited minutes in the regular season, it was a monumental battle against their old Texas rivals the Mavericks in the first round – a battle that went to game 7 – and after that the 4-1 second round drubbing of the Blazers felt pretty underwhelming. The loss (and eventual return...) of Serge Ibaka was the main storyline against the Thunder in the Western finals, and his impact meant that the series turned out to be a lot closer than the first 2 games suggested it would be – still a relatively routine 4-2 series victory for the Spurs though.
Storyline
This is the matchup that most NBA fans have been clamouring for all season, and it’s looking to be an absolute beauty. Last year’s Finals were the most dramatic since the Lakers-Celtics in 2010, with many moments sure to linger long in the memories of all that watched – Ray Allen’s insane 3 in the corner to tie it up in game 6 after the game was all but over and Tim Duncan missing a layup with time running out in game 7 are things I certainly won’t forget anytime soon. The stakes this time certainly aren’t any lower; there are serious consequences for each team should they win. For Miami, it would be the first three-peat since the Lakers of the early 2000s, and they’d join the Lakers, Celtics and Bulls as the only franchises in NBA history to achieve it – only MJ’s Bulls and the Shaq/Kobe Lakers have done it since the 60’s - and LeBron and co would be doing something that even guys like Magic Johnson and Larry Bird could never pull off. For the Spurs, it would be title number 5 (allowing Duncan to match Kobe for number of championships) and bringing them within one title of matching the Bulls for 4th most all time – plus, it would give them some sweet, sweet revenge against the team that denied them last year.
Match ups
Note: I’m assuming that these are the starting units for each team. The Spurs may choose to match Miami’s small-ball like they did last year and start Parker/Green/Ginobili/Leonard/Duncan, or they may stick with the tried and true. Will Rashard Lewis keep starting? Either way, don’t sue me.
PG: Mario Chalmers v. Tony Parker.
This is probably the biggest disparity out of any of the matchups. Tony Parker is criminally underrated in this era of guys like Chris Paul and Steph Curry, and if you need any evidence of that look how he destroyed the Thunder before Ibaka came back. The Heat lack an effective rim protector, so Parker could run rampant if the lanes open up for his drives – but look to see LeBron guarding him if he starts heating up. There’s not much to say about Mario – he makes open 3’s, plays a little bit of defence, but this is hugely in favour of the Spurs.
SG: Dwayne Wade v. Manu Ginobili.
Before any complaints, yes I know that Danny Green is the starter but it’s really Manu that this spot truly belongs to, hence his inclusion here. These two have both lost a step in recent years and are both hugely streaky, meaning that the advantage could go to whoever manages to put in a solid series rather than alternating between brilliance and mediocrity. There’s no doubt that Wade will be testing his creaky knees out and pushing them to the absolute limit after taking it easy all season, so we could be in for a glimpse of the old form that propelled him to 2006 Finals MVP. Ginobili’s peak isn’t quite as good as Wade’s but he’s also a little more consistent and can bring a lot to the table without scoring. It really could go either way, but I think the Heat have the edge at the 2 guard.
SF: LeBron James v. Kawhi Leonard.
What happens when an unstoppable force meets an immovable object? This matchup is a perfect example of that. There’s no way to really stop LeBron other than getting him in foul trouble (just ask the Pacers...) and he’ll always put up 20+ points along with a bunch of boards and assists, but Kawhi might just force him into a few nights where he shoots less than his customary 50%+. The Heat are based around LeBron and his unparalleled ability to drive and dish to open shooters, so if those lanes are suddenly shut down then they might find themselves up the proverbial creek without a paddle. Of course, shutting down LeBron is easier said than done. Kawhi might be one of the best perimeter defenders in the league, but when you’re facing LBJ you’re always going to come up second best.
F1: Chris Bosh v. Tim Duncan.
These two probably won’t be guarding each other often, but they’re both the premier big men for their respective teams and neither is a true power forward or centre. Bosh was once one of the better post scorers in the league but has abandoned the rough and rugged play of the post in favour of jacking up a bunch of 3s (questionable how efficient this switch was...), and has a habit of completely disappearing if he isn’t being spoon-fed wide open jumpers. Duncan on the other hand remains a great back to the basket guy and an elite defender and although he did struggle somewhat against Ibaka at times, the Heat don’t really have anyone who can effectively guard him for the entire game - Birdman, Haslem and Bosh will probably form a tag-team. Bosh isn’t the 25 ppg guy he was in Toronto and Duncan isn’t the juggernaut of his youth, but this matchup will be the new style big-man shooting endless 3s vs the old-timer who keeps putting in his time doing the dirty work. Bosh has his moments if his team is playing well, but because of his lack of desire to actually try and create looks for himself and the fact that Tim Duncan appears to have defeated Father Time, I’m saying advantage Spurs.
F2: Shane Battier/Chris Andersen/Udonis Haslem/Rashard Lewis v Tiago Splitter.
Miami hasn’t really nailed anyone down into the 5th starting spot, at times preferring Battier or Lewis if the other team lacks a scoring big and at others liking either Birdman or Haslem to try and ease the defensive load on Bosh and provide a little muscle down low. Against Splitter/Duncan I’d expect them to probably go with Haslem so that Andersen can provide a bench spark, but it’s entirely possible they’ll go small-ball and run some whacky defensive schemes to make up for their lack of size. After all, Splitter may be pretty good at cleaning up offensive boards and hitting wide open shots, but he’s definitely not giving defenders headaches. It’s tricky to say who comes out on top due to the Heat’s revolving cast of starters, but I think because the Spurs starting 5 is so established you’d have to say Splitter is pretty good at what he’s asked to do.
Bench
The starters may be nearly exactly the same as last year but the benches... well, actually they’re nearly exactly the same too except for a few ‘notable’ changes like the additions of Greg Oden and Michael Beasley. Boris Diaw (this guy is weirdly talented for an un-athletic and undersized forward...) and Patty Mills provide the spark from the Spurs bench, and often end up logging pretty serious minutes – Mills in particular might be called upon a lot if Parkers ankle plays up. As mentioned before the Heat have a bit of a rotating cast depending on match-ups, but Ray Allen and Chris Andersen are usually fairly prominent. The Heat do have a bunch of pretty effective (but verrrrry limited) players they can call upon, but the Spurs bench seems to have much greater overall depth.
Keys to Victory
Heat: LeBron. As simple as that sounds, they’ll need him to go HAM nearly every game if they want to emulate the greats and achieve their three-peat. Their entire offense relies upon him driving and kicking (or finishing), so if he’s struggling to get it going, the Heat may well grind to a halt. He’s also their best defender, so does he have enough in the tank to both be the focal point of their offence nearly every possession and try to lockdown whoever is hot for the Spurs?
Spurs: Balance. The Spurs have never been constructed around any one particular guy, instead relying on their “Big Three” of Timmy, Manu and Tony that’s been around for over a decade now. None of them are going to drop 40 or 50, but they all might put up 20, and that’s what’ll need to happen, along with steady production from the bench. Miami can basically rely on LeBron to do the heavy lifting and make things happen, but if the Spurs are to get their revenge it’ll be a team effort.
Prediction
I can talk about the series for hours, but at the end of the day all anyone really cares about is who is going to win and by how many. I think it’ll be remarkably similar to last year’s Finals, with no blowouts and a lot of very close games decided by a few key buckets and a few key performances. Achieving a three-peat requires an absolutely legendary team, not just one or two legendary players, and as good as LeBron is (and Wade/Bosh are capable of being), I don’t think they’re going to be able to mentioned in the same breath as the Bulls big three of Jordan/Pippen/Rodman or the ridiculously talented duo of Shaq/Kobe. If you ever listen to Steve Kerr commentating he frequently mentions how hard a three-peat is (he was on MJ’s Bulls), so I think due to that and the fact the Spurs have been playing at an unbelievable level all year it’ll be....
Spurs in 7.