The Wildcard’s Guide to the NFL - Week 4
(Rich Schultz/Getty Images)
Last Week: 12-4
New York Giants (1-2) at Washington Pro Football Team (1-2)
Last week I finally earned my stripes with a quality round of NFL picking. Even then it should have been better – as soon as the KC-Miami game kicked off I realised I’d made a horrible, horrible mistake in picking the Dolphins. Then again, I got lucky with Philly over Washington and the Cowboys over St Louis. Any old way the wind blows, eh?
Regular readers of this column will probably have realised that my affinity for the New York Giants stretches about as far as a frozen rubber band. In that it doesn’t.
But despite my prejudices, the Giants had a decent game against the Texans last week. The G-Men were actually catching Eli Manning’s passes for once… hell, they even caught a few of Ryan Fitzpatrick’s! Take away those Texan mistakes and maybe it would have been a different story, but this team is better than they showed in the first few weeks.
Washington meanwhile have a unique factor working to their disadvantage: The South Park factor. The cartoon just aired an episode in the States lambasting/satirising the R**skins name debate, and even if I’m more of a Simpsons guy myself (clearly, there’s at least one reference here every week), I can appreciate the humour here.
Of course that situation is balanced out by two other factors. One being what I’ll tentatively call the Ray Rice & The Ravens Factor, where a team binds together and plays better in the wake of a major scandal (call it a siege mentality or whatever). The Ray Rice Vid was released on the opening Monday of the season. The Ravens lost that day, but in the coming days the scandal spread like wildfire. You’d assume that would take a toll on the team, yet since then they’re unbeaten.
A more tangible factor is that home teams have a massive advantage on Thursday Night Football. The quick turnaround is gonna be rough for everyone, but the home side gets that added level of comfort. Last season was a bit of a scheduling anomaly (very strong visiting teams, unexpectedly weak home side) leading to a 7-7 split. In 2012 it was 8-5, 2011 6-2 and 2010 6-2. And so far this year it’s 3-0 with home sides outscoring their TNF visitors by 118 points to 36.
I s’pose you can add a third factor in too: Kirk Cousins.
Wildcard’s Pick: WPFT by 10
Buffalo Bills (2-1) at Houston Texans (2-1)
I’m sorry but I just have so much trouble picking a team that reminds me of an ice-block.
Wildcard’s Pick: Texans by 4
Green Bay Packers (1-2) at Chicago Bears (2-1)
NFL culture seems to have this trend. Everyone thinks that a certain thing is true, except for an underground murmuring from some beatnik experts. Then these big media minds catch on and start selling the alternative. Then it becomes an Opinion. Therefore most learned NFL scholars will tell you right now that they “just aren’t convinced by the Packers”.
Maybe they’re right. Still, they lost to Seattle away week one, that’s a write off. They beat the Jets week two, meh. Then they fluffed against the Lions. Do we write them off after one bad game? Or do we trust a Superbowl winning coach/quarterback combo and assume they’ve, as that bloke in the crowd at the witches trial in Monty Python and the Holy Grail says, “got better”?
Wildcard’s Pick: Packers by 2
Carolina Panthers (2-1) at Baltimore Ravens (2-1)
I think it’s time I get a start on The Wire season 4.
Wildcard’s Pick: Ravens by 3
Detroit Lions (2-1) at New York Jets (1-2)
It’s a nice little piece of symmetry that these two would meet after this happened last week:
There are only two teams in which a guy might tear his ACL and be ruled out for the season celebrating a sack. These two. One a team that’s made the playoffs once in the past 14 seasons, with more 0-16 seasons than playoff wins since 1991. And the last postseason win before that came in 1957. And the other the proponents of the infamous Butt Fumble.
This is shaping up as a real Home Team Picks week, but this game should buck the trend.
Wildcard’s Pick: Lions by 10
Tennessee Titans (1-2) at Indianapolis Colts (1-2)
How good was Andrew Luck last week!? We’ve seen him do the late-game heroics before but in this game we got a clinical masterclass, basically winning that game by half-time. The Colts don’t seem to be in any place for a deep playoff run yet, not unless there’s some Luck-y Magic. Still, with a schedule like this they should do enough to give themselves a chance.
Wildcard’s Pick: Colts oughta do it easy
Miami Dolphins (1-2) at Oakland Raiders (0-3)
Rule #1 for picking 2014 NFL Results: Home teams have a big advantage on TNF
Rule #2 for picking 2014 NFL Results: Always double-take when picking Dallas, San Francisco, the NY Giants, Washington, Detroit or Carolina… not sure if I trust these guys yet. They come with the inherent chance that they’ll lose in an upset (or win in an even bigger upset).
Rule #3 for picking 2014 NFL Results: Check and see if the starting running back is fit any time I pick a below-average QB for the win (case and point, the Dolphins last week).
Rule #4 for picking 2014 NFL Results: Never pick Oakland.
Wildcard’s Pick: Dolphins by 6
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (0-3) at Pittsburgh Steelers (2-1)
Phew. That was a close one, eh Buccs fans? I have the feeling that Lovie Smith is the only man in the world who actually thinks Josh McCown is better than Mike Glennon. I get that Glennon is raw, but three weeks in and Big Mac C is at the very bottom of the league in Adjusted Yards/Pass Attempt. This stat is a pretty handy one: it measures in passing yards, but also TDs and INTs thrown to weight things. It ain’t pretty for McClown (or Ryan Tannehill, tbh, who should be much better than this).
Wildcard’s Pick: Steelers by 17
Jacksonville Jaguars (0-3) at San Diego Chargers (2-1)
This one’s interesting solely for the fact that Blake Bortles will be starting. He doesn’t need to be good or anything yet, he’s getting crunched this week either way. Maybe just avoid the interceptions and take the experience as a learning curve. There's no way that the Chargers lose this. It's a lock, people.
Wildcard’s Pick: Chargers by more than I can count on my fingers
Atlanta Falcons (2-1) at Minnesota Vikings (1-2)
Dammit, this is not a fun week to pick. Where are the great matchups? Even the ones that look decent on paper are blighted by poor form and injuries and whatever new NFL scandal comes out between now and Monday morning to stop the presses for. Better load up on witty tweets, there’s bound to be something.
This game would have been Adrian Peterson taking it to the Atlanta defence, which lately likes to think of itself as being much tougher than in recent years. Except… he beat his son with a stick, so… nah. Hopefully we’ll see Teddy Bridgewater (at the time of writing it seems likely), cos he’s a guy with plenty to love about him. We got a glimpse last week, just as we did of a few other young QB lads waiting to make their mark. This wasn’t supposed to be a year where too many rookie QBs broke through, yet we saw Austin Davis, Blake Bortles, Teddy Bridgewater and to a lesser extent Johnny Manziel, all see varying degrees of playing time which must have been inconceivable a few weeks back.
(Plus Derek Carr is taking snaps for the Raiders, not that anyone watches Raiders games anymore.)
It’s only in the last half decade or so that starting rookie QBs has come into fashion. It’s too hard for too many teams to avoid the impatient fanbases of the internet. Not that it’s such a bad thing to throw guys in at the deep end. Not if they’re better than what you’ve got.
Bridgewater > Cassel, but Either of Them < Matty Ice
Wildcard’s Pick: Falcons by 6
Philadelphia Eagles (3-0) at San Francisco 49ers (1-2)
The San Fran 49ers have scored 59 points in first halves this season. The best in the NFL. In their second halves? Just 3. It’s true, Grantland did a feature on it.
It really feels like this won’t be the 49ers year. I don’t like harping on about it cos I actually kinda like them, even as a Cowboys fan. In the very least I respect them. Looking at this team though, Colin Kaepernick has obvious issues in that he’s a rich man’s Geno Smith, while Frank Gore hasn’t been nearly the guy he was the last few seasons. And when the QB and RB are both struggling, you can usually draw some middle ground with the offensive line. And let’s not get to talking about the fellas MIA on defence.
Now contrast that with the second half team that Philly is. They take a while to get into games but once it matters, that’s when they shine. Down 17 at the half week one vs Jacksonville they outscored them 34-0 in the second stanza. They took the Colts 24-10 in the 2H week two as well. Washington seem like strong finishers too (though so are the Colts to be fair), yet the Eagles held on to win that one. And Foles made some clutch plays, man! I didn’t buy him last year when he jumped on the scene with that massive no interception streak, but I do now. You can’t judge a QB until you see them in a bad game. Not their worst, but those tough grinds where the attitude’s there but the mechanics are a little off or whatever. If a quarterback still looks decent on an off day like that then you’ve got a keeper. Tom Brady: I rest my case.
P.S. Kaep – I love the guy, but he’s failed this test so far.
Wildcard’s Pick: Eagles by 3 – if you can’t score consistently against the Eagles then you’re asking them to lose the game for you. Too big of a risk for mine.
New Orleans Saints (1-2) at Dallas Cowboys (2-1)
Please don’t make me do this…
Wildcard’s Pick: Saints by 9
New England Patriots (2-1) at Kansas City Chiefs (1-2)
I’m not gonna go overboard trying to justify this one, cos I’ll probably just say some things that I’ll regret when they don’t pan out. So, here goes:
- I think that Kansas City are better than they showed in the first couple weeks. Nothing of Alex Smith’s career suggests he’ll become a turnover machine long term.
- I think that New England are struggling to gel early on this season and they are definitely a candidate for a few complacent losses. Even last week against the Raiders, if they were playing any of around 20 other teams that would have been a loss for them.
Wildcard’s Pick: Chiefs by 6
BYE: Arizona Cardinals, Cincinnati Bengals, Cleveland Browns, Denver Broncos, St. Louis Rams, Seattle Seahawks
Two unbeaten teams, two defending Conference champs, Johnny Manziel and, uh… The Rams. All with their feet up on the recliner this week. This must be the week that Greedy Goodell had booked for a holiday in the Swiss Alps or something. Wouldn’t be a bad idea for that guy to take some time out of the public eye, to be honest (it’s OK, I’m not employed by ESPN, I can say these things).
The Wildcard is a staff writer for The Niche Cache. And that is all. He never smuggled cocaine out of Colombia, he never got shot on the streets of Harlem, he never fought Muhammad Ali and he never wrote a best-selling series of sci-fi novels. There was that thing with the monkey and the crowbar… but that’s not important.