The Wildcard’s NFL Predictions - Week 17
Last Week: 14-2
Season: 162-78
Green Bay Packers (7-8) at Detroit Lions (8-7)
Monday 7.00am NZT
So here we are. The last bend in the road has been turned and we’re onto the final straight. The final game of the season for 20 of these 32 teams. And, kinda sadly, last week spoiled a few of what would’ve been some magnificent all or nothing playoff playoffs, including this one. The Lions had a damn good chance of making the postseason, as good as they could hope for based on a couple of the stumbles they’ve made along the way. But then Giovanni Bernard ran all over them and, coupled with Aaron Rodgers’ injury, now we’ve got a relatively meaningless game here.
In defence of the Lions, they turned out to have a brutal schedule. There’s a good chance that every team who beat them this season, other than the Bengals (and the Packers if they win here), will be in the playoffs. The Vikings, Ravens, Saints, Steelers, Panthers, Falcons… all teams that have made a habit of winning games. The issue for the Lions above everything else is that they weren’t able to beat better teams (other than week three vs Minnesota, though that was in the early Age of Keenum). Their eight victories have a combined 42 wins, their seven defeats have a combined 70 wins. Can’t really complain when the better team keeps winning… although I can’t help but wonder what might have been if they’d gone to 3-0 with that controversial late defeat against the Falcons. If It gets them rid of Jim Caldwell then at least there’ll be one positive.
As for the Packers, they know exactly what went wrong and that suspect collarbone is being very carefully treated as we speak. Hey, maybe next time.
Wildcard’s Pick: Lions by 7
Chicago Bears (5-10) at Minnesota Vikings (12-3)
Monday 7.00am NZT
The Bears did the business last week. Mitch Trubisky threw under 200 yards again with no touchdown passes while Jordan Howard averaged 2.0 yards per carry on 22 carries but they were playing the Browns and you’ll get away with that as long as you don’t make mistakes. Sweet as, that’s about all we’ll get to learn from the Bears this season. Pretty clearly a team that needs new talent but they’ve got a quarterback that they’re invested in (for better or worse) and that’s the first step. Doesn’t look like a team that’ll be in the playoffs anytime soon but at least the process is underway.
Meanwhile the Year of Case Keenum will extend into the next turn of the calendar page… onto the next calendar in fact. The Vikings will have the bye if they beat Chicago, which they should, though the Eagles have home-field advantage all locked up already with the tiebreaker.
It’s a bit of a riddle trying to guess how far the Vikings might go in the playoffs. We’ve all seen plenty of teams that storm through the regular season only for it all to end in tears with the old one and done when it matters most. Generally I lean towards the teams that can generate mass offence, which is why the Rams feel like such a dangerous team. The Saints as well. The Eagles are obviously a much weaker prospect without their star quarterback, they’ll still pose a threat with Nick Foles but it’s not quite the same, Foles can hit the passes but he doesn’t move like Carson Wentz.
The Vikings? I dunno, they’re not even working with their best weapons. Sam Bradford didn’t last two games as the starting QB and Dalvin Cook’s been on IR for months now. Yet here they are, all poised. Not a team that dominates the yardage (well, they do but that’s down to their defence) but a team that knows how to make it count. Remarkably consistent, don’t make a lot of mistakes… yet can they keep it up when these other teams move up gears? Not sure, to be honest. But I kinda hope so.
Wildcard’s Pick: Vikings by 14
Houston Texans (4-11) at Indianapolis Colts (3-12)
Monday 7.00am NZT
Of all the teams with losing records but hopes of massive improvements in 2018, these are the two that actually have serious cases of being able to Do A Rams. The Texans especially, who suffered so many cruel injuries along the way but you get a healthy Deshaun Watson throwing to DeAndre Hopkins and Will Fuller, then hope that defence can stay on the park, possibly with an addition or two among the backs, and that’s a team that can win ten games. Watson only teased what he can do for a few games and there’s a good chance of a sophomore slump there, as we’ve seen with Dak Prescott a bit, but what we saw suggests he’s legit enough to last a long time in this league, health permitting.
The Colts aren’t nearly as stacked and you can only expect so much from Frank Gore as each season goes on. But chuck Andrew Luck back in there at full capacity and everything changes. Chances are they have a new head coach, chances are they’ll be back in with a chance. This division has gotten bloody tough while they’ve been chilling on the outside of contention, though.
Catch of the season right here too, it’s got my vote. DeAndre of course.
Wildcard’s Pick: Colts by 6
Cleveland Browns (0-15) at Pittsburgh Steelers (12-3)
Monday 7.00am NZT
Ben Roethlisberger with 4251 passing yards 28 touchdowns, LeVeon Bell with 1291 rush yards and another 655 through the air, Antonio Brown injured but still able to call upon more than 1200 combined receiving yards from JuJu Smith-Schuster and Martavis Bryant… yeah, so prepare yourselves for the second 0-16 team in the history of the NFL.
It didn’t start this terribly. They looked like a scrappy kinda team for a few weeks… but then came the botched handling of DeShone Kizer’s benching, the numerous interceptions that he threw on either side of that benching, the mostly irrelevant Isaiah Crowell, the injury that ended the streak for Joe Thomas, the general manager that got the flick, the two overtime defeats, the numerous field goal defeats, the continued humiliation of fans… it’s only fair that the Cleveland Browns go winless. Not only for the travesties of this season but for several others in the past. This is the ultimate culmination of Browns Football. It has to happen.
And it will.
Wildcard’s Pick: Steelers by 45
New York Jets (5-10) at New England Patriots (12-3)
Monday 7.00am NZT
Once again, here are Tom Brady’s MVP Credentials. Now with just one game to go:
15 GM | 12-3 REC | 67.5% COMP | 4387 YDS | 30 TD | 8 INT | 104.2 RATE
He’s more than a hundred yards clear of Ben Roethlisberger (although he’s playing the Browns so he might go for 500, you never know). His completion percentage is better than everyone except Alex Smith and Drew Brees, who have each also thrown 4000+ but with fewer wins and touchdowns. Carson Wentz and Russell Wilson still have more TD passes but Brady’s only three behind Wentz and could catch him this week since Carson’s out for the season and only Alex Smith’s QB rating exceeds him. But Smithy’s team fell off a cliff midseason so his stakes are buried. Todd Gurley should be second in the standings but Tom Brady is MVP. 40 year old Tom Brady. He’d better make sure he says thanks to the witchdoctors and voodoo priests who are keeping him so young.
You know what? The Jets have lost five of their last six, soon to be six of seven, but I reckon they’ve done a decent job of this thing. Ask me before the season and I’d have said they’d be lucky to win four games, probably only two or three. Yet they’ve been competitive in most games, particularly while Josh McCown was playing. Since his injury they’ve been outscored 26-64 in three games with Bryce Petty, hence why Christian Hackenberg might get a game here, but that happens when you run out of things to play for. The real story is that the Jets were once 4-5 and beating teams like the Jaguars, Dolphins and Bills.
Which is why I get so annoyed with the way some coaches are treated by fans. There are so many dudes who get ripped as bad coaches because they don’t know what to do in the final two minutes of games, buggering up timeouts and playcalling or whatever. As if that isn’t like 0.1% of what goes into being a head coach in the NFL. You know how many game-winning drives Tom Brady’s made this season? Two. Because the Patriots are so well coached that everyone’s in on the same vision, everyone’s doing their jobs and setting up victories with time to spare. Todd Bowles doesn’t strike anyone as a master tactician just yet (but give him time + talent and see) but look at the feel of this team in 2017. Look at the confidence and dedication out there. They’ve got a culture brewing.
Jordan Jenkins to NY Daily News: “This team's just different, man. We get along well. We don't sell each other out. We don't throw nobody under the bus. We all come together and we work together toward a common goal, and we might not have gotten the wins and have shot ourselves in the foot a couple times, but this isn't the team that branches out and separates when times get hard.”
Wildcard’s Pick: Patriots by 13
Washington R*dskins (7-8) at New York Giants (2-13)
Monday 7.00am NZT
The NFC East is gonna look quite different next season when Eli Manning’s playing for the Jaguars and Kirk Cousins is throwing touchdowns in San Fran… okay maybe not San Francisco. Let’s chuck him on the… well, I’d love to see him playing for the Ravens but more likely is he’s on the Cardinals or Jets or Dolphins. Either way, there’s a good chance neither’s back on their current team next time and it’s rather hard to imagine either team getting better without them. Which is gonna be weird, seeing the Skins and G-Men losing games, missing the playoffs, getting beaten by the Cowboys and Eagles all the time… oh yeah. That already happens. Never mind then.
Wildcard’s Pick: Bleepskins by 11
Dallas Cowboys (8-7) at Philadelphia Eagles (13-2)
Monday 7.00am NZT
The saving grace for the Eagles is that when their defence is on song, they can carry the team despite whatever’s going on with the other side of the team. Nick Foles only hit at 50% completion last week against Oakland and they were 1/14 on third down conversions. That’s awful and it wasn’t like they were playing a fully fit Seahawks team either. Most of these NFC playoff teams are gonna boast funky defences that can take away the first option and based on last week it’s not so clear that Foles will be able to adapt to that. He’ll be productive as long as he can stick to the script, otherwise it might be trouble. Frankly if it’s a matter of Eagles or Vikings at this point, you’d rather play Philly.
Not that the Cowboys will get that option, they blew their season last week against Seattle. Bloody idiots needed to ride Zeke into the endzone but nah. A missed field goal, a pick-six and plenty other stupid errors all added up – looking at you, Dez - and it’ll have to wait until next season now. I’m expecting Dak Prescott to make big strides in 2018 after the ol’ sophomore slump. Ezekiel Elliott with a full season too. Get a couple more defensive playmakers, a cornerback would be nice, yeah I’m not too bummed about this. I gave up on the Cowboys season when they first got smashed by Philly and now they get to do it again.
Although… the Eagles are all sorted in terms of seeding and they barely managed to beat the Raiders while the Cowboys may be out of things but they’re back near full strength and looking to finish the year on a high note. It’s small consolation after what happened last week but I kinda reckon they might just sneak this.
Wildcard’s Pick: Cowboys by 1, because I never learn
Jacksonville Jaguars (10-5) at Tennessee Titans (8-7)
Monday 10.25am NZT
Slowly but surely the Titans have slipped out of what looked like a dead set playoff spot. And fair enough too, these guys just haven’t been able to figure it out offensively and though they gave it a good punt against the Rams last week it’s not really worth much when you get stomped all over by Todd Gurley and Jared Goff. Three losses in a row at the most important time of the season and still all they need to do is win here to make the knockout stuff. Lucky bastards. Lucky, lucky, lucky, lucky…
But that’s only if they win against the Jags. Otherwise they’d need both the Bills and Chargers to lose, with Buffalo away in Miami and LAC home to the Raiders both at the same kickoff time. The Bills might cock that one up but I don’t see the Chargers doing the same, not against a Raiders team that have a lot more enthusiasm than belief these days. Nah, the Titans probably need to win this thing. The Jaguars have already won the division and can’t earn a bye, they’re where they’re gonna be. So it’s up to Mike Mularkey and his mates to figure out how to kickstart a dodgy offence against one of the better defensive units in the league, who are coming off a stink one against San Francisco and probably won’t make the same mistakes again twice.
Yeah, umm… that running game appears to be beyond salvation at this stage so that means relying on Marcus Mariota, a quarterback with more interceptions than every other player in the league that doesn’t take snaps for the Cleveland Browns. A dude with only 12 score, the same as Trevor Siemian and fewer than Jay Cutler, Tyrod Taylor, Joe Flacco or even Aaron ‘I Only Played Seven Games!’ Rodgers. Against a defence that’s made 21 interceptions, short only of the Baltimore Ravens with 22. These are not things that fill me with belief. I still rate Mariota as a quarterback but he needs a new coach. Maybe a new team.
By the way, Bort threw three picks in the loss to the 49ers. They probably would’ve won if he’d protected the ball better. But then I s’pose he wouldn’t be Bort if he didn’t throw 382 yards with three picks every few weeks. It was weird those three weeks prior where he was pickles and controlled. Nah, gotta throw fifty times against a team that lost its first nine games and see what happens. And now if Bort throws 230 yards he’ll become only the fourth QB ever with 15,000 passing yards in his first four seasons. Peyton Manning, Dan Marino and Ryan Tannehill.
I like me some Keelan Cole though. That lad’s come on great the last few weeks, back to back 100+ yard receiving games after 99 yards the game before. The rookie made six catches (on 18 targets) for 47 yards in his first six games. He has 16 catches (25 targets) for 393 yards and a couple scores in his last three. Fantasy waiver prospect for those playoffs for sure.
Wildcard’s Pick: Jaguars by 4
Buffalo Bills (8-7) at Miami Dolphins (6-9)
Monday 10.25am NZT
Nothing much to get excited about here. The Bills are still in the playoff hunt and will be in with a win here coupled with either a Ravens loss or both the Titans and Chargers losing. I’ve got neither of those combinations happening and that’s fine by my future viewing self. Both these seasons need to be ended in a hurry. Hey, remember when Tyrod Taylor was dropped for no reason then Nathan Peterman threw five picks? Hey, remember when Ryan Tannehill never took a snap this season and Miami had to sack a dude from their coaching staff for having a taste for the Colombian marching powder? Yeah, nothing to mourn for either team.
Wildcard’s Pick: Dolphins by 2
Cincinnati Bengals (6-9) at Baltimore Ravens (9-6)
Monday 10.25am NZT
It’s time for one more reminder that these 2017 Baltimore Ravens are going to the playoffs as long as they either win here or the Bills or Titans lose. It’s very, very likely to happen. These Baltimore Ravens. Believe it, quoth the Raven.
Wildcard’s Pick: Ravens by 5
Oakland Raiders (6-9) at Los Angeles Chargers (8-7)
Monday 10.25am NZT
Most Touchdown Catches in NFL History:
- Jerry Rice – 197
- Randy Moss – 156
- Terrell Owens – 153
- Cris Carter – 130
- Marvin Harrison – 128
- Antonio Gates – 114
- Tony Gonzalez – 111
- Larry Fitzgerald – 110
- Tim Brown – 100
- Steve Largent – 100
How good is Antonio Gates, aye? Still reeling them in at age 37. Here’s hoping he gets the opportunity for a few more too. If not and the Chargers are eliminated from playoff contention at the final hurdle then there’s a good chance that he retires so it’ll take some handy results for him to extend that magical career another week.
Regardless, the Chargers need the Titans to lose. They also need either the Ravens or Bills to lose as well. Far from impossible, which isn’t far from what the odds looked like when they were 0-4 – a start so bad that only the 1992 Chargers have ever made the postseason from there. Then again, most 0-4 teams are 0-4 because they’re terrible, hence why 112 of the 113 teams before this season that began 0-4 in the 16-game era didn’t recover. And if the Chargers don’t get things breaking their own way then I’ll repeat what I said last week: don’t start 0-4 and you might be better off.
Speaking of milestones…
Wildcard’s Pick: Chargers by 10
Arizona Cardinals (7-8) at Seattle Seahawks (9-6)
Monday 10.25am NZT
Say what you will about the Seahawks but they’re nothing if not resilient and for all the deserved chatter about Russell Wilson and how well he’s played, surely we’ve gotta spare some love for Bobby Wagner’s DPOY candidacy and what a stunning job Pete Carroll has been able to do despite all the injuries and a crappy offensive line, culminating in a crappy run game. They all did what they had to do last week in beating the Cowboys in Dallas despite having more penalty yardage than offensive yardage, coming up with some funky ways to pressurise Dak Prescott in the process. Can’t argue with a team that can win with it all against them. Still need the Falcons to lose combined with a win here to make the playoffs but unlike Dallas and Green Bay and Detroit at least they’re in with a shot.
Wildcard’s Pick: Seahawks by 6
San Francisco 49ers (5-10) at Los Angeles Rams (11-4)
Monday 10.25am NZT
And still it continues for Jimmy G. He’s now throwing at around 69% completion with the Niners for 1268 yards and five scores (with a trio of picks) and, most importantly, a 4-0 winning record. He did a lot of that against weaker teams but putting 44 points in the Jaguars is no mean feat, the most any team has scored on the Jags in 2017. The only thing with him is that he still ends up settling for field goals a few too many times (Robbie Gould’s kicked 16 of them in the four wins), plus he got picked off in the endzone against Jacksonville. Still of the mind that if the Niners add more talent around him that that’ll take care of itself though, and if they wrap up Jimmy G for the long term then they’ll be able to turn their focus towards all that jazz.
Say, what do ya know?
Pretty much a no-brainer here. Garoppolo’s done everything you could ask of him and I’d imagine that franchise tag gets a good working out in these negotiations unless San Fran are ready to offer something substantial. The old ‘bet on yourself’ idea, imagine what he could get after a whole season of this.
Jimmy G’s contract will get plenty of chatter but keep an eye on how the Carlos Hyde talks go as well. Don’t wanna fix one area only to get worse in another and Hyde has done so much for this team while they’ve been slumming it in the loss column. He’s been a bit crap this season although you try running behind CJ Beathard and see how many yards you get. Hyde’s got 850 yards at 3.8 per carry. It’s the first time he’s dropped under 4.0 in a season. I’d like to see how he goes with a couple improved offensive linemen and a full offseason working on that combo with Jimmy G. Mike Shanahan is a known offensive genius and you wanna give a guy like that weapons to work with. Look what he did with the Falcons. Looks what the Falcons have done without him.
One more time for Todd Gurley, please. He deserves it. His entire season is like a massive middle finger to any remaining value that Jeff Fisher may have as an NFL head coach.
Wildcard’s Pick: Rams by 7… ohgodwhathaveidone…
Carolina Panthers (11-4) at Atlanta Falcons (9-6)
Monday 10.25am NZT
The Falcons made the Super Bowl
And blew a massive lead
Still haven’t head the end of that
‘twas Twenty-Seven Three
The Panthers know the feeling too
From only one year prior
Denver sculled ‘em good and true
Like Peyton’s free Budweiser
The hangover is tough to cure
There’s really just one way
Gotta get back into Bowl
And make the jokers pay
But easier it’s said than done
When Super Cam ain’t flying
When Matty Ice has lost his cool
When defences aren’t trying
When Julio gets double teamed
When Riverboat is sinking
When Shanahan’s gone to San Fran
When Johnny Stew’s been stinking
Yet here we are, week seventeen
The Panthers still are breathing
They find a way on any day
No matter how they’re feeling
Atlanta too can join them through
If they can win right here
That title choked it won’t undo
But at least…
… well, at least they’re not playing the Patriots
Wildcard’s Pick: Falcons by 3
Kansas City Chiefs (9-6) at Denver Broncos (5-10)
Monday 10.25am NZT
After all that the Chiefs came back and won the AFC West anyway. They’re the exact opposite of the Chargers. You start 5-0 and you can make all the damn mistakes you want, it’s genuinely hard to miss the playoffs from there. They don’t even need this game, the Chiefs have already won the division.
Wildcard’s Pick: Chiefs by 3
New Orleans Saints (11-4) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4-11)
Monday 10.25am NZT
This week in classic NFL Moments… it’s the Buttception:
The Saints should win this one and with it they’ll take this division, lose and the Panthers can catch them. They’re too good for the Buccs though, I know TB pushed the Panthers a long way last week but the Panthers do that against weaker teams. The Saints score too many points, make too many yards. That’ll do for that.
Which, ladies and gents, completes the season of NFL predictions. It’s been fun, mates. It’s been real fun. Last week I went 14-2 and that was the best single week all damned season, so here’s to finishing on a high note. Takes me to 162 correctos which is better than three of the four previous years I’ve done this thing (I thought it was only 160 but turns out I’d miscounted) and so if I go 9-7 or better then I’ve set a new personal best. Yippee.
So the way I’ve picked it this week gives New England (1) and Pittsburgh (2) the top seeds in the AFC and Philadelphia (1) and Minnesota (2) the top seeds on the other side. First round playoff games will be as such:
Los Angeles Chargers (6) at Jacksonville Jaguars (3)
Baltimore Ravens (5) at Kansas City Chiefs (4)
Atlanta Falcons (6) at Los Angeles Rams (3)
Carolina Panthers (5) at New Orleans Saints (4)
Those are four insane games, even the Ravens vs Chiefs would get interesting because of the clash of those two particular styles. Safe to say I’m just a little bit excited. BRING IT ON! AHHHHHH!
Wildcard’s Pick: Saints by 9
The Wildcard is a staff writer for The Niche Cache. His team did not make the playoffs. Please don’t mention it to him in person, he’s lying when he says he’s over it.
Mate, smack an ad as always and do TNC a proper solid, plus maybe jump in on that Patreon stuff, be a Generous George/Georgina and flip a buck or two our way and keep them eyes peeled in case there’s some bonus NFL stuff through the playoffs.