The Wildcard’s NFL Picks - Week 14
Last Week: 9-7
Season: 121-70-1
Dallas Cowboys (6-6) at Chicago Bears (6-6)
Friday 2.20pm NZT
“In my opinion, Jason Garrett will be coaching in the NFL next year.”
That was Jerry Jones talking. On the radio. Putting his support behind Jason Garrett to continue as the Dallas Cowboys coach by saying there are lots of great coaches who haven’t won Super Bowls before landing the yarn with this kicker. A reminder that Garrett is out of contract after 2019. A reminder that Jerry Jones is the man responsible for offering him a new one or not. He says that like he has distance from the matter, in his opinion and all that, which really doesn’t sound like he’s gonna keep the bloke around... so that’s cool. As the head coach he’s responsible for the fact that the Cowboys have bottled game after game and failed to beat a single team with a winning record yet. Somebody’s gotta pay for that, it’s been a goddamn disaster the way this team fails to play up to its potential when it matters.
And guess what? A great replacement just became available all of a sudden...
Luckily the Bears are not a winning team so it’s safe for the Cowboys to beat them. Also lucky is that the Philadelphia Eagles are even more of a scrambled psychological mess than the Cowboys are and somehow the Boys have six legit terrible defeats to their name (maaaybe only five, the Saints loss wasn’t that bad) and are still in first place and likely to make the playoffs. It makes zero sense, no matter how much the Cowboys try to ruin their season it keeps not working. Tell you what though, if they make the playoffs and get rid of Jason Garrett in the same year then that’s me sorted. Bloody hell. Talk about a perfect season.
The Bears have won three of four to keep their own slim hopes alive but two of those wins came against the Lions (with backup QBs) and the other was against the Giants. They also lost to the Rams in that time. Basically nothing of note has been learned of this team since about week five because there’s nothing left to know, their achilles heel of an offence is just too much to ever properly overcome. 6th last in points scored, 4th last in yardage, 5th last in yards per pass attempt, 3rd last in yards per rush attempt. It’s a disaster. If the Cowboys only had a head coach who hadn’t lost the dressing room (and entire organisation) and if the Bears only had a quarterback worth a damn then this could be an NFC Championship game. The saddest thing is that there’s no guarantee at all that either franchise will address their one overwhelming weakness in the offseason.
Wildcard’s Pick: Cowboys by 3
Indianapolis Colts (6-6) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (5-7)
Monday 7.00am NZT
We’re now fully three quarters through the season and we’re at that stage where teams begin to fall into two distinct categories: playing for this year and playing for next year. The Panthers have lost their last four in a row and thus fired Riverboat Ron as they basically give up on making anything out of the rest of 2019. Hey their franchise QB hasn’t been healthy at all this year so gotta be realistic.
As it stands, only the New Orleans Saints have clinched a playoff spot, having already hoarded a five game lead in the NFC South. There’s more sense being made at the other end as several teams have already been eliminated from contention. The Bengals were the first to go. Now the Giants, Cardinals, Dolphins, Falcons, and Lions have joined them.
Both these teams are still technically in the race though. The Buccs have a less than 1% chance according to FiveThirtyEight as they can only make it with a wildcard and are three games out on that one with four to go. A single defeat ends it and nobody would be shocked by that. Bruce Arians isn’t committing to Jameis Winston beyond this year and I’ve already said all I need to say on that matter. The highs aren’t worth the lows.
The Colts meanwhile have about a 10% chance but likely need to win out with three away games out of four to close including away to New Orleans. When you think that they’ve lost four out of the last five though... this season has been such missed opportunity – they were right in this at the halfway point. Losing to the Steelers by two. Losing to the Dolphins by four (also losing to the Dolphins full stop). Losing to the Texans by three. And then last week’s 31-17 defeat at home versus the Titans... in which Adam Vinatieri missed three field goals and is now apparently injured and might well be cut after they claimed another kicked on waivers. The chat coming into the season was that they were going to be a genuine threat even without Andrew Luck but while Jacoby Brissett has put together a fine season, it hasn’t been enough amidst a pile-up of injuries. And TY Hilton is probably done for the season too. Few teams can handle more than a handful of injuries to starting players. Sometimes that’s just the way the dice fall.
Wildcard’s Pick: Buccs by 3
Baltimore Ravens (10-2) at Buffalo Bills (9-3)
Monday 7.00am NZT
What do you know? Even the Pope’s on the Lamar Bandwagon. Woulda thought he’d be more of a Saints fan personally but okay, whatever. It’s funny aye, they said that Lamar Jackson had a bad arm and ought to be playing wide receiver if he wanted to make it in the NFL and they said the Pope should take decisive action in stopping the Catholic Church from protecting child molesters... but just look at them both now!
Safe to say that defensive linemen are gonna have their work cut out in this one, these two QBs have 1407 combined rushing yards which is the most ever in a single game. And it’s only week 14 as well. Jackson had another 101 of those last week in the win over the Niners and is now just 23 yards from being the second quarterback in NFL history to have a 1000 yard rushing season after Michael Vick in 2006 and at the rate he’s going he’ll beat that all time record of 1039 this week too. Unprecedented. And you have to go back to 1950 to find another QB with four 100+ yard rush games in a single season.
What’s more is the Ravens at one stage went 21 straight possessions without a punt and are on pace for the fewest punts in NFL history – 34 is the record for a 16-game season by the Houston Oilers in 1990 and the Ravens have punted just 24 times in 12 games to date. The Ravens are on an 8-game winning streak during which they’ve beaten the Seahawks, Patriots, Texans, and Niners... I mean you can talk about the MVP race all you want but it’s getting boring at this stage. The real question is can anybody find an answer to the question of how you stop this team. It’s not only Lamar. This defence hasn’t conceded more than 20 points in a game since the start of October and have a turnover in every one of these wins and multiple turnovers six out of eight of them. Plus they have the best kicker in the sport who is 22/23 for the season on field goals. That’s basically all the cliched criteria for playoff success right there. The only one they’re missing is home field advantage and with a remaining schedule of Bills (A), Jets, Browns (A) & Steelers... they’re already a 95% chance to get a first round bye and they have the tiebreaker over the only other team in the conference with more than eight wins currently, the New England Patriots.
Wildcard’s Pick: Ravens by 9
Detroit Lions (3-8-1) at Minnesota Vikings (8-4)
Monday 7.00am NZT
The Vikings are the only non-Patriots team to still have a perfect winning record in home games and that’s not about to change against a Lions team that seems to have absolutely no idea of how to win games of gridiron football. Shout out to David Blough though. No idea who he is but he started last week and did okay, I s’pose. Threw a 75-yard touchdown on his first ever drive though which is nice.
Wildcard’s Pick: Vikings by 4
Washington R*dskins (3-9) at Green Bay Packers (9-3)
Monday 7.00am NZT
This bloke’s really growing on me, aye? For all the manufactured hype over the New York Giants and Daniel Jones, Haskins has stepped in all of a sudden and won a couple games and what do you know the R*dskins are somehow still in playoff contention after the Giants have already been eliminated. I mean, it won’t last much longer but it just goes to show that New York is cursed and the intense media spectacle up there is completely undeserved. Haskins moves great, which we already knew about him, but he’s also got good poise and a pretty decent arm too.
The biggest problem there is clearly the minimal talent around him – get him some legit protection next season (which all teams seem to be quickly realising, in a post Andrew Luck NFL, is the most important thing you can do to protect your franchise quarterback aka the most valuable person in your organisation) and then see what happens, I promise that much. This guy’s in my team’s division too so I’m not saying this lightly. The numbers are still ugly for Haskins but he’s making timely plays and winning some games.
22 year old running back Derrius Guice had 129 rushing yards with two touchdowns last week against the Panthers too. 23 year old linebacker Montez Sweat has a sack in three of his last four games and a quarterback hit in six of his last seven. There’s the makings of something in there.
Aaron Rodgers has sneakily on pace for 4000+ passing yards with something like 29/30 touchdown passes to about 3 interceptions. Incredibly in his last 28 games, going back to the start of teh 2018 season, he has thrown 47 touchdowns to just 4 interceptions. That’s four interceptions from 1010 pass attempts. And they’re winning games too so it’s not like he’s just gone way back within his shell all of a sudden.
Wildcard’s Pick: Packers by 14
Denver Broncos (4-8) at Houston Texans (8-4)
Monday 7.00am NZT
Six yard touchdown pass. DeAndre Hopkins to Deshaun Watson. And the best part about it is that the players actually designed the play themselves during the week and Bill O’Brien, shout out to that guy, had no dramas with embracing the old player power thing. In fairness it was actually extremely similar to a play the Bears ran a while back but hey as long as it works that’s all that matters. O’Brien got one over Bill Belichick too so he got his reward regardless.
Obviously any time you beat the Patriots is a huge win but that was big for many other reasons for the Texans too. Most specifically is that they’re kind of in a scrap for the playoffs and claiming the W against a team like that is like being able to play a bonus game more than anyone else. You don’t expect to beat the Patriots, not even at home, and the difference between being 8-4 and 7-5 right now is immeasurable. And they did it pretty comfortably too.
The Texans have a one game lead over the Titans in the AFC South, that’s a Titans team on a big surge lately as well. Those two get to play each other twice over the last four weeks so winning that Pats game effectively means they can afford to split that two-game series as long as they match what the Titans do elsewhere.
Also...
Wildcard’s Pick: Texans by 7
San Francisco 49ers (10-2) at New Orleans Saints (10-2)
Monday 5.00am NZT
Wildcard’s Pick: Saints by 3
Cincinnati Bengals (1-11) at Cleveland Browns (5-7)
Monday 7.00am NZT
Dude. I mean, fair play for celebrating a win, that’s cool. Celebrating the quarterback you dropped a couple weeks ago makes it kinda weird there but gotta feel happy for the players for getting that one since this is a brutal sport to play at the best of times and losing eleven straight ain’t fun. But they had a bloody gatorade shower on the field as the clock ran down, they drenched the coach for getting to 1-11. Different teams, different priorities... but this was pretty hilarious. One win. At least they can get back to the tank now with that one taken care of.
Wildcard’s Pick: Browns by 10
Carolina Panthers (5-7) at Atlanta Falcons (3-9)
Monday 7.00am NZT
This is one of those ones where it all falls away. The Panthers have a backup quarterback and just sacked their coach while the Falcons season was busted ages ago but they’ve been better in the last month as players, and especially their coach, scrap for their futures. This might be a pretty enthralling game but it won’t count for anything.
Wildcard’s Pick: Falcons by 7
Miami Dolphins (3-9) at New York Jets (4-8)
Monday 7.00am NZT
You know, I was just thinking the other day about Le’Veon Bell. Remember that guy? Used to be such an unstoppable force and then he ran into Adam Gase and now he might as well jsut be any other guy. 589 rush yards on 183 attempts at 3.2 per rush. Only three touchdowns on the ground (and one through the air). You can’t divorce him from the issues the Jets have had all season on offence but healthy superstar running backs shouldn’t all of a sudden be held to a full yard below their career Y/R average like this. Bell hasn’t had a single game with more than 70 rush yards.
We’re talking about one of the finest talents of his generation here, a guy who has three separate seasons with 1250+ rush yards. He should be the focal point of this offence... otherwise why are you paying him superstar dollars if you’re just gonna use him like a walk-on rookie? Nah, this is Adam Gase’s fault. He never wanted Bell in the first place and he doesn’t want an offence built around the run game. Le’Veon sat out the entire 2018 season to prepare himself for free agency and this is what he got for it. What a waste.
Wildcard’s Pick: Jets by 7
Los Angeles Chargers (4-8) at Jacksonville Jaguars (4-8)
Monday 10.05am NZT
A decision has been made. Probably the right decision, not a decision that should come as a surprise, but a messy one with tricky consequences. Garnder Minshew will replace Nick Foles on a permanent basis for the rest of the season as starting quarterback. The Jags did the right thing in giving Foles the chance to show what he can do but in three starts since he returned from injury they were blown out in all of them. There’s an element that Gardner Minshew brings to this offence that Foles can’t replicate, a mobility most of all, and to put it bluntly he’s just plain been better. So now, with Doug Marrone likely to be sacked at the end of the season, Minshew has four weeks to stake his claim for starting dibs next season (which surely you do, right? Why dump Foles if not for Minshew, otherwise you’re risking just making the same problem of overpaying for a free agent who might not fit – at least with Minshew you both know what you’ve got to some degree and also he’s super cheap).
Nick Foles: 65.8% COMP | 2.6 TD% | 1.7 INT% | 7.4 AY/A | 91.1 RATE | 4-4 W/L
Garnder Minshew: 61.1% COMP | 4.2 TD% | 1.5 INT% | 6.0 AY/A | 84.6 RATE | 0-4 W/L
And in case there was any lingering doubt, Minshew clearly outplayed Foles in the second half after subbing in for him last week against the Buccs. Not that he could do much worse than Foles losing two fumbles and throwing an interception on the first three possessions of the game and then going three and out the next three.
Problem for the Jags is that Foles signed a 4yr/$88m contract which is going to be tough to get rid of. If they wait until after June 1 to cut him then the dead cap hit is only $21m... though they can lower than to a mere $6m of wasted cash if they can trade him after that date instead. A mere six millions dollars... imagine if that money actually went to people that needed it... but yeah it’s likely to take a tasty draft pick to move that contract, even though Foles is more than capable of playing extremely well in an offence that better suits him. Which makes you wonder why a Super Bowl MVP is looking so warped in this team... there’s the injury obviously but his accuracy is way down and that was the basis of his success in Philly, and the Jacksonville coaching staff have to cop an equal amount of heat as Foles will. Though Foles also has the track record of being mud outside of Philadelphia.
Speaking of quarterback changes... I wonder if Philip Rivers is still with the Chargers next season, hmm.
And speaking of the Chargers, they unveiled their latest masterpiece last week. Down by three just outside the two minute warning and faced with a fourth and one in their own half. Anthony Lynn wanted to go for it. They took a false start flag. He still wanted to go for it. They took another false start. It’s now fourth and eleven... and Mike Williams somehow does this under immense pressure with the game basically on the line...
The Chargers knocked over a field goal to tie the game with nine seconds left. The Broncos then lobbed the ball up the sideline, drew a pass interference call, and knocked over a 53 yard field goal. They had nine seconds on the clock, a single play. It probably would have been better to let the fella catch it. Really, only the Chargers could lose from there. No team has lost more single possession games since 2006 than the Chargers.... yet only nine teams have a better overall record in that time. This is what they do. It’s truly an artform.
Wildcard’s Pick: Chargers by 3, God help me
Kansas City Chiefs (8-4) at New England Patriots (10-2)
Monday 10.25am NZT
PATRIOTS’ OFFENCE HAS STRUGGLED, BUT IS TOM BRADY RESPONSIBLE?
WHY TOM BRADY DESERVES BLAME FOR STRUGGLING PATRIOTS OFFENCE
WHAT’S WRONG WITH TOM BRADY? LET’S START WITH HIS RECEIVERS
OPINION: TOM BRADY IS FRUSTRATED WITH THE PATRIOTS OFFENCE
LACK OF OFFENCE LEAVES BRADY, PATRIOTS FANS CONCERNED
For the love of God, people! Why am I reading these headlines yet again? Do we not realise what happens when we write off the New England Patriots? Has Tom Brady not come back from the dead enough times already for us to stop jumping to drastic conclusions like this? And even while the Pats offence is struggling... is that not the best secondary in the league? Are they not 10-2 and heading for a first round bye? Did they not win three of the last five Super Bowls? This is the NFL media equivalent of a rain dance and it’s one hundred percent guaranteed to bring a torrential downpour upon us the likes of which we’ve never seen before except for all the other times we’ve done this same rain dance. The Patriots get a level of benefit of the doubt that nobody else gets, I’m sorry but those are the rules and we must abide by them. Or else face the wrath of the demons unleashed.
Wildcard’s Pick: Patriots by 5
Tennessee Titans (7-5) at Oakland Raiders (6-6)
Monday 10.25am NZT
Good times for Ryan Tannehill. I always kinda liked him at the Dolphins where I think injuries were the biggest reason he never kicked on... but yeah clearly it was time for a change for both sides there. But while the Fins have moved on to full on tank mode, Tanny’s got himself a great situation at the Titans where apparently he’s just genuinely good now. Like, this lot could still make the playoffs now after going 5-1 since Tannehill took over. They’re only one game behind the division-leading Texans and are tied with the Steelers for the second wildcard spot. These Raiders are very much in that race, as are the 6-6 Indy Colts... so this game’s rather massive right here.
But forget about about that guy for a sec and focus on Derrick Henry. These are his last three games, all wins...
23 rushes for 188 yards (8.17 yards per rush) with 2 touchdowns against the Chiefs
19 rushes for 159 yards (8.37 yards per rush) with 2 touchdowns against the Jaguars
26 rushes for 149 yards (5.73 yards per rush) with 1 touchdown against the Colts
He only had one 100 yard rushing game in the first nine weeks and that was 100 yards exactly against the Falcons and it took him 27 rushes to get there. This little rushing boom has launched him all the way up into the rushing title race, which Nick Chubb leads with 1175 yards, Christian McCaffrey is next with 1167, and Derrick Henry is third with 1140 yards. Coming in fourth is some guy called Josh Jacobs with 1061 and who does he play for? Oh look, the Oakland Raiders. Right on.
Nah jokes I’ve been all over the rookie season that Jacobs is having so the head to head between running backs here is going to be insane. Especially since the Raiders really need to push their dude Jacobs since not only have they been outscored 74-12 over the last two weeks but a large reason for that has been Derek Carr suddenly plunging into terribleness. Over his first ten games he was completing at 72.3% with 249.4 yards per game and 15 TDs to 5 INTs, a rating of 105.2. Over the last two weeks those numeros plummet to 61.4% completion for 174.5 yards per game with 1 TD and 3 INTs and a rating of 62.7. This team’s not strong enough to overcome that kind of quarterback performance. Their season depends on a whole lot more and establishing a serious run game early would help. But, yeah, I’ve been burned by picking road teams a lot lately but when the Titans are on a hot streak and the Raiders have been blown out twice in a row, including to the Jets, then it’s hard to see things going any other way.
Wildcard’s Pick: Titans by 10
Pittsburgh Steelers (7-5) at Arizona Cardinals (3-8-1)
Monday 10.25am NZT
Apparently Delvin Hodges is nicknamed Duck Hodges because when he was younger he won some kind of national duck calling contest. So that’s a completely true fact to comprehend. He looked alright last week too, better than Mason Rudolph for what it’s worth and this Steelers team does have a genuinely good defence to work with so a mediocre quarterback should be enough to keep them in the mix for the playoffs.... whether this guy has what it takes to get them up over the top is another question but they weren’t going anywhere with the other backup guy.
Man, I like this guy. And you know what else? Considering all the injuries on this Steelers team and losing Antonio Brown (back when he was semi-sane) and Le’Veon Bell in the same free agency and the growth they’ve had on defence and the way they’ve been able to get production despite not having their long time franchise QB... Mike Tomlin’s coach of the year case is extremely good. Just look at what this man is doing!
Wildcard’s Pick: Steelers by 9
Seattle Seahawks (10-2) at Los Angeles Rams (7-5)
Monday 2.20pm NZT
Damn, so much for the MVP race then. Oh well.
Nice to see the Rams bounce back to usefulness by actually remembering that Todd Gurley is a player who is good at the football thing. 19 carries for 95 yards with a score is nothing special and he still doesn’t have a single 100 yard rushing game but he was a functioning member of a functioning offence so that’s a relief. He also had 25 rushes for 97 yards two weeks ago in a win over Cincinnati. The Rams might be 7-5 with some very concerning defeats in there but they’re 2-0 when Todd Gurley has 20 or more rushes plus receptions in a game.
Sean McVay on why Gurley’s touches have increased: “Me not being an idiot.”
Wildcard’s Pick: Prediction
New York Giants (2-10) at Philadelphia Eagles (5-7)
Tuesday 2.15pm NZT
Oh you lost to the Miami Dolphins. Right. Okay then.
Wildcard’s Pick: Eagles by 7
The Wildcard is a staff writer for The Niche Cache. Every morning he showers in a waterfall of pure gatorade because it’s important to celebrate your own achievements.
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