The Wildcard’s NFL Picks - Week 1
Last Season: 164-91-1
Houston Texans at Kansas City Chiefs
Friday 12.20pm NZT
Welcome back friends. Welcome back Romans. Welcome back countrymen. The strangest NFL season in living memory is upon us, a pandemic is ravaging the United States while city streets all around the nation are full of protesters and counterprotesters and a whole lot of mindless police robots, California is literally on fire, the scrappiest election campaign the nation has ever seen is on the horizon and no doubt the NFL will be dragged into the rhetoric one way or another, bland statements racial injustice are becoming the corporate capitalist version of tasteless insta-postings, there has been no preseason whatsoever and there’ll be minimal fans in stadiums for the time being. Somehow, amidst all that, the National Football League is going to proceed.
Whether they should or not is irrelevant at this point, they can’t afford not to and other leagues around the world have already set a precedent. One thing that’s worth mentioning is that even without the bubble systems that are as effective as it can realistically get, these sports leagues still seem to have an ability to stay covid-free that puts the rest of society to shame. The NFL is testing like mad ahead of the 2020 season and the results have been extremely promising. It’s almost like sportsfolk are naturally more inclined to make personal sacrifices for the benefit of the wider team in a way that the selfish morons in wider society can’t seem to get a hang of. Anyway, shout out to NFL players for leading that approach and allowing the season to go ahead.
We begin this week with an absolute belter of a game with two of the very best quarterbacks in the league going head to head, one of those teams being the defending champions and the other a genuine contender. The Chiefs there’s nothing to worry about. They’ve paid Patrick Mahomes all his money and then some and have done a surprisingly steady job of keeping the band together for another crack at it. Usually when a quarterback gets paid it squeezes the pockets elsewhere and after a championship you tend to get folks whose value shoots up beyond what you can afford to pay... but the Chiefs haven’t really lost anyone who they can’t replace. In fact I wouldn’t even be shocked if that defence improves a fair bit. I think I heard 20 out of 22 starters are returning from the Super Bowl team... and there’s a chance they even made an upgrade at running back with rookie Clyde Edwards-Helaire.
As for the Texans, they’ve gone even further in the direction of sacrificing everything else to build a great offensive line to protect the sack-magnet Deshaun Watson. Which makes sense, he’s an elite guy who you can’t afford to see getting hit 8-10 times a game. You know what though? While trading away DeAndre Hopkins is a weird look for a team with title aspirations... they’ve reinvested the money they would have had to pay him in building a deeper group of receivers in his place. Will Fuller, Kenny Stills, Brandin Cooks, Randall Cobb, DeAndre Carter, and Keke Coutee. Lots of options there. Should be a banger of a season opener.
Wildcard’s Pick: Chiefs by 6
Seattle Seahawks at Atlanta Falcons
Monday 5.00am NZT
Not really sure how I’m supposed to do this without a preseason and with the NBA playoffs swallowing up the media focus... I’m coming at this week one with, like, zero context about any of it. Bloody gotta try remember what happened last season and check all the wikis to remind myself who signed where and who got traded and... it’s a weird one. This whole season is gonna take two months before things start making competitive sense, I reckon.
But anyway...
Speaking of Stefon Diggs... the Vikings traded him to Buffalo so that’ll be fun. Dude got annoyed, rightfully, because Kirk Cousins couldn’t get him the ball often enough and now he plays for Josh ‘Fourth Quarter Only’ Allen.
The Falcons have been a bit of a mess in recent years but when teams underachieve it’s because they’re capable of being that much better. The Falcons still have that supreme Matt Ryan to Julio Jones combo going, and they’ve added in Todd Gurley which is a weird one because the talent is immense there but there’s a reason he got released by the Rams. He was shocking last year, didn’t have a single 100 yard rush game... though one thing he’s never struggled with is getting into the endzone and that’s something this team hasn’t always been the best at (Jones had only 6 TDs last year). Plus they’ve addressed their biggest weakness – pass rush – by getting Dante Fowler Jr in free agency.
Quite like what the Falcons have done... and the Seahawks are definitely not the team they’ve been. The Legion of Boom has been decommissioned. Still, there’s the Russell Wilson factor to consider. Also the home field disadvantage thing in empty/mostly-empty stadiums in other sports has been weird, taking the pressure off travelling teams. Hmm... this is one of those picks that might feel dumb in a month but right now, without any evidence from either side, I’m gonna back the A-Towners.
Wildcard’s Pick: Falcons by 3
New York Jets at Buffalo Bills
Monday 5.00am NZT
If you haven’t already done so, have a geeze at my annual quarterback rankings...
Safe to say neither of these two starters are in the top twenty. Having had 24 hours to assess things, I reckon I did a pretty good job. Happy with how things turned out. No rankings I wanna change.
Having said that, there are quite a few blokes whose positions there are very much of the moment and could be in for big changes in twelve months. All the older guys are on retirement watch... it’s kinda mental that guys from the early 00s are still battling away and at a pretty high level too. Tom Brady is the oldest and I feel like he’s the least likely to retire after this season. Philip Rivers is the one I think has the most to prove, his Indianapolis trip could be amazing or terrible.
Aaron Rodgers is a guy I maybe gave more credit to than others would have based on similar rankings I’ve looked at but I dunno I think people are overrating the decline there. More on that later. I’m very interested in what Matt Stafford does this year. I’m curious about whether Jared Goff has a resurgence in him. And younger guys like Kyler Murray, Joe Burrow, and whichever of the New Yorkers can hang have the potential to rise sharply. Probably not the New Yorkers, actually. And yeah I’ve been a tad harsh on Ryan Fitzpatrick and Tyrod Taylor down the bottom there but that’s because their situations are pretty lame, just keeping the seat warm for the rookies coming through.
Wildcard’s Pick: Buffalo by 9
Chicago Bears at Detroit Lions
Monday 5.00am NZT
Did Mitch Trubisky win the QB battle in Chicago because he’s made genuine strides over the offseason? Is it more because of his more pliable style compared to Nick Foles who is a little harder to rein in? Is it more about continuity? Is it because Foles is continuing to be awful at any team not named the Philadelphia Eagles? Is it because they’re expecting a turnstile at QB regardless so who cares? So many questions and no answers. This context-less NFL picking is a tough business. I kinda just wanna wait and see with everyone.
Wildcard’s Pick: Lions by 3
Green Bay Packers at Minnesota Vikings
Monday 5.00am NZT
The level of disrespect coming towards Aaron Rodgers, I swear to god. He’s only 36 years old in a league where there are multiple 40+ year olds starting for playoff calibre teams. Last year he had his lower passer rating since 2015 but he was hardly in Mitch Trubisky or Sam Darnold territory. 26 touchdowns is a tad low but so is only 4 interceptions... if 4002 yards, 26 TDs, 4 INTs, and a passer rating of 95.4 is your dud season then you’re doing alright... which we know Aaron Rodgers certainly is. Let me also remind you that the Packers went 13-3 and made the Conference Championship game.
And that was in the first year of a rather significantly changed offence under Matt LaFleur. In their second year together things should click even more, with Rodgers also having been served a wakeup call by the drafting of Jordan Love. For a guy like Rodgers who can be pretty prickly at times (just ask his family) reading quotes like this are pretty promising...
Aaron Rodgers: “I think last year did a lot for Matt and I, just understanding each other. It was going to be a work in progress when you have guys from different types of backgrounds and systems, but I really felt like the communication with us was so strong, and it was really nonstop. We would have conversations early in the morning and a lot of conversations late at night about things we were thinking about, him asking my opinion about things, me kind of bouncing things off of him and trying to see where he was coming from. Those moments, and really like I said, the desert rose of all it being the Zoom meetings this offseason, I think really helped our relationship to progress to where we’re hashtag #FriendGoals.”
So people trying to write him off after all that... I honestly don’t get it. The only worry I have about him is that the Packers haven’t really done anything to improve his already gentle collection of wide receiver targets... bit odd, that. But lock it in that Aaron Rodgers is gonna be immense in 2020.
(Mostly I put that video in because it’s the first time I’ve actually seen that meme in video form)
I do like a lot of what the Vikings have done though. Kirk Cousins is coming off his first ever playoff win but really this is all about what they've done with their new defence. Free agency zapped them of a lot of guys but they traded for Yannick Ngakoue which is huge, and even their young cornerbacks are exciting. It’s a quality group that should be a top ten defence... then chuck in rookie WR Justin Jefferson, who replaces Steffon Diggs, and they should be competing for the playoffs. This’ll be a good game.
Wildcard’s Pick: Packers by 2
Miami Dolphins at New England Patriots
Monday 5.00am NZT
Rate that very highly from the Fins.
How about this NFC East, aye? For two decades, literally two decades, it’s been dominated by the New England Patriots and the Bill Belichick/Tom Brady combination. The Patriots have won this division ELEVEN times in a row. The Miami Dolphins snuck in there in 2008 but the Patriots got it the five years before that. The Jets got there in 2002. The Pats won the AFC East the year before that (as well as their first of six Super Bowls in this reign). These are Tom Brady’s records as a starter against each of the other AFC East teams...
Buffalo Bills: 32 wins and 3 defeats
New York Jets: 29 wins and 7 defeats
Miami Dolphins: 23 wins and 12 defeats
We’re at the point where we’re talking about PTSD, fans of those three teams probably still wake up in cold sweats in the middle of the night screaming about Tom Brady-enforced losses. But Tom Brady is gone now. The division is as open as it’s ever been. I don’t know that the Pats will actually be any worse with Cam Newton there, they’ll have to adjust the scheme a bit but it kinda fits with the kind of personnel that Belichick usually hoards... maybe need a proper deep threat for Newton’s release valve but he dealt with worse for the Panthers. But it’s just that psychic refresher of not having to see Tom Brady that perhaps opens up the belief that these other jokers can actually win some games.
Except... the Miami Dolphins in 2019 were one of the worst teams in recent memory. They were so goddamn bad and yeah that was mostly deliberate but there’s not a lot of scope of going from there to a winning record all at once. Ryan Fitzpatrick has been alright these last couple years but they’re preparing the team for Tai Tagovailoa down the road.
Then you’ve got the New York Jets who have felt like they should be better than they are the last couple years, wouldn’t count them out this early at all, but they absolutely need Sam Darnold to do more. They need Le’Veon Bell to be himself again... which I’m not sure is gonna happen. The Jets did win six of eight to finish last season and that defence should be alright. Pretty hard to believe in the Jets though.
Then there’s Buffalo who should really be the team most poised to take it to the next level. They’re a well-coached team with some huge talent, particularly on the defensive side of the ball. They’ve made the playoffs in two of the last three seasons, losing in the wildcard round to the Houston Texans in overtime last year. If anyone can claim the vacant throne in this division then it’s the Buffalo Bills. And yet... something compels me into disbelief.
Wildcard’s Pick: Patriots by 10
Philadelphia Eagles at Washington Professional Football Team
Monday 5.00am NZT
Interesting. Cleveland, Indianapolis, Jacksonville, Kansas City, and Miami are the teams letting in fans at this stage, with Dallas probably gonna allow a few too when time comes around. Jerry Jones is a dirty capitalist so of course they will but they’re away this week so have delayed the call. I’m not too bothered about who allows fans in and who doesn’t, there are ways to do it safely if you’re willing to go through all the tricky details, but it boggles the mind how people who matter can’t see the correlations between where the second waves have struck worst and the opening up of states post-lockdown. Two of the Florida teams are allowing in fans. People are so stupid sometimes.
These two teams are both confusing (one for on-field reasons and one for off-field reasons) so I’m just gonna treat them like an ancient artefact discovered deep in the woods on Friday the 13th with a full moon out and leave them the hell alone until I can get more information.
Wildcard’s Pick: Eagles by 12
Las Vegas Raiders at Carolina Panthers
Monday 5.00am NZT
I feel kinda bad for Derek Carr, you know? This is a guy who once kicked up a fuss on twitter that he’d been quoted as saying “damn” when he assured the world he’d actually said “darn”. That’s some Ned Flanders level of goodieness... and now the fella is literally plying his trade in a town they call Sin City. It’s surely just a matter of time before he’s got himself one of those ‘mom’ tattoos on a bleeding heart. Then the next step is his first puff of a cigarette. Soon after that he’ll be making single dollar bets at the roulette table. And after that it’s probably mafia hitman recruitment, crushing skulls in the vice like in Casino and hoovering cocaine off his desk like Scarface. Scarface was Miami but you get the idea. Jon Gruden won’t be able to contain him, the corruption potential is through the roof. Neon lights flashing and the chinking echo of tumbling coins at the pokies. Derek Carr stands no chance. We can only pray for his soul.
Wildcard’s Pick: Raiders by 3
Indianapolis Colts at Jacksonville Jaguars
Monday 5.00am NZT
Oh buddy. Oh mate. That’s just... yeah.
On the plus side, there’s no quarterback more prepared to play in an empty stadium than Philip Rivers who has been doing this the last couple years in Los Angeles.
Speaking of quarterbacks...
Love it.
The Colts have a strong team. Those levels of talent are not sustainable in this league long term, player turnover is huge in the NFL, and you have to be able to go all in when the opportunity arises which is why the Colts have bet this year on Philip Rivers, bringing him in for $25m on a one year contract. Rivers was poor last year but there’s not a lot of better options that they could have had, gambling on an injured Cam Newton at the time they signed Rivers would have been too risky, there’s a reason it took Cam a long time to get signed. He needed more time to prove his fitness first. Rivers is a gamble too, personally I reckon there’s a very decent chance he’s kinda washed and terrible. But I don’t blame them for trying and it’ll be a lark to watch it unfold.
As for the Jags... they’ll be fun too but in a different kind of way. Gardner Minshew is gonna get a free rein to do whatever he wants with very minimal help as he tries to prove he belongs at this level. As I mentioned in the QB Ranks, it’s a win-win for the Jaguars. Either they end up with a quarterback work persevering with or they suck and lose heaps and draft a better one. Not expecting a lot of wins for Jacksonville this year but fingers crossed, I do really want to see Minshew Mania 2020.
Wildcard’s Pick: Colts by 7
Cleveland Browns at Baltimore Ravens
Monday 5.00am NZT
Wildcard’s Pick: Ravens by 6
Los Angeles Chargers at Cincinnati Bengals
Monday 8.05am NZT
Must be NFL time when I have to re-learn how to spell ‘Cincinnati’. Is it two Ts and one N? Two Ts and two Ns? Two Ns and one T? Yeah that’s the one. Shout out to spell check for the save.
I suspect this game might be a bit terrible. Defs keep an eye on the ol’ Redzone to see how Joe Burrow goes because that fella’s got all the skills to be an instant positive in the NFL but there’s nothing there for him to work with. Even AJ Green, he’s still coming back from injury. This is a team that were 2-14 last year with the third worst offence in terms of points scored and they gave up the fourth most yards on defence. Awful on both sides. The Chargers are a little better, they should be a functioning team with Tyrod Taylor there, though they’re also clearly transitioning into a new era as they part ways with Philip Rivers who had started EVERY SINGLE GAME FOR THE CHARGERS FOR THE LAST FOURTEEN YEARS. That’s not a transition that’ll come easy for them.
Wildcard’s Pick: Chargers by 5
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at New Orleans Saints
Monday 8.25am NZT
Yep. Must be the mystical TB12 concoctions, this dude is like six months away from shilling crystals and moon rocks and to be honest if he gets it going for the Buccs I’ll probably be tempted to get amongst it too. He still looks whack as hell in a Buccs uniform though. Not sure if I’ll ever get used to that.
Tampa Bay are nicely poised to make a playoff run with Brady in town but I suspect it’ll take a month or so to settle in. Brady’s style of play is very different to Jameis Winston, Bruce Arians needs to get in on the adjustments too, it’ll take some time. Also I’m just not really sure Rob Gronkowski can get anywhere near the player he once was... I was all in on him becoming a Steven Segall type action movie hero and the fact that never happened is odd. Maybe Gronk couldn’t memorise his lines like he memorises playbooks.
The Buccs should still grind plenty of wins out in the meantime but the Saints are a team that’s already good to go. They’re stacked. They have one of the three or four tastiest offences out there and Drew Brees tends to start the season in peak form before he gets tired as it goes along... relatively confident in this pick.
Wildcard’s Pick: Saints by 7
Arizona Cardinals at San Francisco 49ers
Monday 8.25am NZT
Top dollar wide-receivers are often a little unnecessary. This is one of those sports where the ratio of value to performance is constantly under scrutiny and the Texans for example are all good going with a stronger group rather than a standout individual (since Hopkins was due an extension). But I absolutely love this from the Cardinals, getting one of if not the best wideouts in the game, paying him properly to entice him in, and thus giving your second year quarterback the best possible positional support you can offer him. That’s how you do it.
But they’re up against the defending NFC Champs so chill on the immediate flips. The Cardinals are still on the way up while the Niners are already there. I reckon we could be in for a huge Kyler Murray year though.
Wildcard’s Pick: 49ers by 9
Dallas Cowboys at Los Angeles Rams
Monday 12.20pm NZT
Dak Prescott is a hero and a scholar and a leader. Apparently one of the yankee shock jocks had a crack at him for admitting he’d dealt with some demons (in the aftermath of his brother’s death, no less) which is exactly the kind of idiocy that pervades those areas of the media. It’s a formula, say controversial things to wind people up, and sometimes they overstep the mark. Dak’s vulnerability makes him an even greater leader for this Cowboys team and I’m proud as hell of the dude as I’m convinced will be each and every one of his teammates.
And what teammates he’s got! Amari Cooper and Michael Gallup are already a dangerous WR pairing but there are folks that reckon the rookie CeeDee Lamb might be the best of the lot of them. Jason Witten is gone, he’s a Raider now, which is sad for sentimental reasons but he was just too slow last year to fit in this offence and now Blake Jarwin gets the chance to step up. Ezekiel Elliott remains one of the finest running backs out there and this offensive line is always a strength. And they’ve gotten rid of the deadwood that was Jason Garrett’s offensive influence. Shout out Mike McCarthy.
This after Dak’s best ever season (until this season)... the Cowboys could have a Chiefs level offence this season, I’m not even joking. Oh and on the defensive side of things they’ve added Everson Griffen and Dontari Poe to the line for some pressure up front and DeMarcus Lawrence and Jaylon Smith haven’t gone anywhere. This roster is amazing. I’m salivating right now. Excuse me while I take a cold shower.
Wildcard’s Pick: Cowboys by 10
Pittsburgh Steelers at New York Giants
Tuesday 11.15am NZT
Joe Judge is the new head coach for the G-Men. Spent eight years with the Pats under Belichick, now he’s gotten the gig in New York and mate this dude is an absolute savage. It’s great. Yesterday he tore into his entire team over a poor start to practice and made them start all over again. Shredded them in front of the media and everything, who then had to leave. Not even lying, that happened...
Plenty more where that came from too. He’s also a big fan of the old high school sports movie tactic of running laps. Laps and laps and laps, keeping the lads accountable or whatever – it’s a Belichick staple coaching technique apparently. He also made a point of wanting to see his quarterback get knocked around in training so he gets used to the hits. Some of the contact in general has been hefty. And training jerseys don’t have names so that star players can learn to carry themselves like leaders without relying on reputation and the lesser-names get that blank slate.
This here from Newsday: “He’s the coach who sees things happening on the field (such as his defensive backs holding a little too much) and adjusts to it (in this case by taping tennis balls to their hands so they cannot grab anything). He’s the coach who had the team go through a game-simulating scrimmage that saw them mimic every aspect of what a regular season Sunday or Monday night will include, right down to his own pausing for a mock halftime interview on his way off the field. Before every practice, the team begins its stretching routine by clapping in unison... and then stopping in unison like an orchestra being cut off by the conductor. There is a precision to it all that hasn’t been seen in these parts in a long time. They say the devil is in the details. The Giants may need an exorcism once Judge is through with them.”
An extremely detail-orientated bloke who holds enormous standards for his team, a team which is mostly just the same Giants fellas all coming back hoping a bit of competency from their structures will make the difference particularly as they ease Daniel Jones into his first full season as a starter. I get the feeling there’ll be a few more restarted trainings as the season goes along. Strangely though, for a guy as detail-orientated as Joe Judge is... Jason Garrett is calling plays as offensive coordinators and I can tell you first hand as a Cowboys fan what that’ll look like.
Meanwhile...
I reckon the Steelers have some mad potential here. Ben Roethlisberger is back with a young and speedy wideout group and in the time he spent out this team developed a genuine defensive identity that we haven’t seen from them in years. They won’t need to win games 40-38 this year. Which, in the AFC, is kinda essential if you wanna hang around in the playoffs because nobody’s outgunning the Chiefs (or maybe Texans and Ravens too).
Wildcard’s Pick: Steelers by 5
Tennessee Titans at Denver Broncos
Monday 2.10pm NZT
Wildcard’s Pick: Titans by 3
Chip in for the TNC cause on our Patreon if you appreciate the yarns we’re serving up
Also sign up to our email banger and whack an ad to say cheers for the words
Keep cool but care