The Wildcard’s NFL Picks - Week 2
Last Week: 10-6
Last Season: 164-91-1
Cincinnati Bengals (0-1) at Cleveland Browns (0-1)
Friday 12.20pm NZT
Hmm okay. Cincy and Cleveland... a curious way to start a new week. Thursday Night Football was fantastic last week so I s’pose they had to balance it out with this oddity. For the Bengals there’s no pressure, they’ve already got their dude in Joe Burrow and this year is all about easing him and beginning to build a unit around him. Burrow was pretty average on debut but that’s to be expected. Remember it’s not just his own learning curve, he’s also playing for a team that was utterly terribly last season so the talent around him ain’t fantastic. To say the least.
Burrow’s gonna be really good, don’t worry about it... you only have to look at that final possession to see it as he lead the Bengals down the field with great tempo and accuracy, taking the situation out of his mind and just going play by positive play, culminating in what looked like the winning touchdown to AJ Green. Except that Greenie had pushed off so out came a flag and then Randy Bullock missed a 31 yard field goal that woulda sent the game into overtime.
The Browns on the other hand... they got whalloped 38-6 by the Ravens and one game into the season they’re already feeling the pressure. Jeez, this league is ruthless. But that’s residual pressure from underachieving last year – when many had them as favourites for the division. Those people were counting out the Baltimore Ravens and I’ll toot my own horn for a second here and say I never believed in the Browns anywhere near that level... but still, only going 6-10 was a big disappointment. So to then come out week one and get shown exactly how far they really are off the pace in the AFC North doesn’t help things on the calmness scale.
But in fairness the Ravens were like that last year too... you either know how to limit Lamar Jackson or you don’t and if you don’t then you tend not to lose by single digits – they won eight separate games by at least 14 points last year. This game against Cincinnati and then next week against Washington will be much better indications of where Cleveland is at. And Baker Mayfield in particular, who only connected with Odell Beckham Jr on three of ten attempts.
Wildcard’s Pick: Browns by 9
New York Giants (0-1) at Chicago Bears (1-0)
Monday 5.00am NZT
Shout out to this guy...
Monday mornings are the best. If you know you know.
Mitch Trubisky in the 4Q vs DET:
8/10 completions for 89 yards with two touchdowns (and also a 20 yard rush)
He did that leading his team from 23-3 down at the end of three quarters to win it 27-23, admittedly with Detroit butchering a late winning touchdown but still. They got themselves into a winning position largely through their quarterback and the luck followed. Granted, that does leave you wondering... where was that level of play for the first three quarters? Fella completed only 12 of 26 pass attempts prior to the fourth. And even amidst that final Q comeback he took a massive sack and fumbled the ball (to be recovered for a 28 yard loss, leading to a punt).
You can see what the Bears still see in Trubisky. The highs are pretty bloody high to be honest, much more than his reputation suggests. But the lows are equally low and there doesn’t seem to be a lot in between which is the strangest thing. Kinda similar to what the Giants have though. Daniel Jones, admittedly less experienced, has the ability to look fantastic for entire drives and then completely shank a throw that leaves you scratching your head how the same guy could be responsible for consecutive plays. Probably exhausted from running laps and doing press ups under the Joe Judge regime, to be fair.
And now... Jason Garrett jokes!
It’s nice to be in on the laughs now. Although it did start to get uncomfortable just how much of a focus the telly crew gave on Jason Garrett considering Joe Judge is the head coach of the team, not Garrett. But since everyone wants to focus on Garrett’s play-calling, this doesn’t feel like a good start...
Saquon Barkley: 15 rush attempts, 6 rush yards
There is another common denominator though... the NYG offensive line looked aaaawful. Could be a long season for those fellas, can’t see them winning too many games.
Wildcard’s Pick: Bears by 8
Atlanta Falcons (0-1) at Dallas Cowboys (0-1)
Monday 5.00am NZT
It’s a funky one but even though the Cowboys lost last week to the Rams, I’m feeling even better about their chances of winning the division than I did before. The Giants looked straight up awful so nothing to worry about there. Washington had a wonderful comeback win but that was equally a rotten Philadelphia collapse which... yeah more on that later. The Cowboys might have lost game one under Mike McCarthy but the Rams offence was an absolute handful, they played really well, and the Cowboys only lost by a small margin. Why they didn’t kick the field goal to tie the game up late in the third quarter I have no idea – plus obviously there was a dud call on the offensive pass interference at the end there. Pretty frustrating.
And yet Dak Prescott was excellent, Ezekiel Elliott looked as good as he’s looked for a full year or two, and the defence made some plays when needed. The secondary is gonna be the big pivot point for them one way or the other... although some of these linebacker injuries are concerning with both Sean Lee and Leighton Vander Esch both now on IR, to miss at least the next month. CeeDee Lamb looks as good as they said he would though. An annoying loss first up but the lads are in a good place.
Unlike this FEED ME tattoo on Zeke’s stomach...
Wildcard’s Pick: Cowboys by 7
Detroit Lions (0-1) at Green Bay Packers (1-0)
Monday 5.00am NZT
That insanely long NFL offseason, made worse by a bloody pandemic, all that time spent trying your hardest despite the barriers to mould the strongest possible grid iron team you can and then through all the zoom calls and the individual workouts and the player signings and every other damn drama they had to go through... and this is the difference between a week one win and loss. A 21 year old rookie running back dropping an absolute sitter of a touchdown costing the team the late comeback victory. This is a brutal sport sometimes, aye.
By the way, Week One of the Aaron Rodgers Resurgence Year:
32/44 COMP | 364 YDS | 4 TD | 0 INT | 10.09 AY/A | 127.5 RATE
As I wrote last week, the slander has been immense but the talent remains. Still an absolute no doubt top five quarterback in the league. Count him out at your own jeopardy.
Wildcard’s Pick: Packers by 3
Jacksonville Jaguars (1-0) at Tennessee Titans (1-0)
Monday 5.00am NZT
How good, mate!? 19/20 passing for 173 yards with 3 scores and no picks. He did take four sacks so maybe he coulda taken the hit on that completion percentage to save some yardage but no dramas the Jags were surprisingly great against Indy. A team that was meant to be tanking got the W over a team that was trying to go all in. The Colts throw $25mill at Philip Rivers and Gardner Minshew is comfortably the best quarterback in that game. The best laid plans of mice and men...
“That just shows what we can do right there. That’s just a fucking glimpse. We ain’t even scratching the fucking surface yet. Do not be satisfied with 1-0. We got another division game coming up so bring it this week in practice. Iron sharpens iron.”
God I love that guy. I’m cheering for him to succeed so hard. Iron sharpens iron? I don’t even know what that means, is that like how only diamond can cut diamond? I’ve never heard that phrase before but I tell you what it’s evocative and that’s what matters. Especially in a huddle. The lads aren’t standing there waiting for pure Shakespearean verse... and Shakespeare made up his own words and phrases anyway so... where was I going with this? Great week one from Gardner Minshew.
Doubt they beat the Titans though. Lovely to see Stephen Gostkowski get the game winner at the end there to redeem himself after a shocking game up until then – missing three field goals and an extra point. Bill Belichick once again always knows when to move them on. But up against a legitimate Broncos defence and with points left on the table like that... I thought the Titans rallied pretty nicely to win that game despite all that and I expect them to do the same here, only more comfortably.
(Dunno about you but I always love these uber technical player breakdown type vids, it’s just fascinating the insight you get into top athletes, both from a tactical perspective but also getting a glimpse at the personalities and how they affect plays... like I said Iove them)
Wildcard’s Pick: Titans by 10
Minnesota Vikings (0-1) at Indianapolis Colts (0-1)
Monday 5.00am NZT
Kirk Cousins versus Philip Rivers.
One thing I wanna keep an eye on is whether we see similar trends to what we’ve seen in European football where the lack of crowds have really cancelled out home field advantage. You wouldn’t think it would entirely but that just goes to show how much teams draw from their fans. In the NFL there are a few extra variables to consider, like covered stadiums and artificial turf and all that, maybe that still adds some extra advantage through familiarity. Home and away teams were split in week one with eight wins for home teams and eight for away teams. Way too soon to tell if it’s worth considering or not... it’d be nice to have some sorta way to split these teams because I’m not sure I can otherwise. At least the Vikings lost to a strong team last game.
I’m also all sorts of curious about the fake crowd noise situation... but I might save that for next week.
Wildcard’s Pick: Vikings by 3
Buffalo Bills (1-0) at Miami Dolphins (0-1)
Monday 5.00am NZT
Interesting. Reminds me of how the NRL sometimes tweak a rule or two in their interpretation to make a statement at the start of the season... then halfway through they relax the rulings again and it’s back to normal. We’ll see how long this lasts but to be honest I reckon we’re all pretty happy seeing fewer penalties at the line of scrimmage. Let the big dogs get to work.
Then fix pass interference next, please.
This shouldn’t be much of a contest. The Bills are a strange team because Josh Allen lowers the ceiling kinda drastically with his poor arm... but he also keeps the floor fairly high with his timely playmaking. It’s a weird one. But the Dolphins are awful, they were awful last year, they will remain awful this year. Case and point...
Wildcard’s Pick: Bills by 10
San Francisco 49ers (0-1) at New York Jets (0-1)
Monday 5.00am NZT
Frank Gore against his old team! A team whose logo is still in his profile pic on Twitter! He’ll get plenty of carries too as Le’Veon Bell is out injured for the next few weeks. Seriously, Gore is 37 years old in the single most difficult position in the sport to find longevity in. Many, if not most, running backs are washed by the time they turn 30... Frank Gore is 37 and has only missed two regular season games in THE PAST DECADE.
That’s about all there is to be excited for here. The Niners were disappointing in week one. The Jets were abysmal. That Jets team might be the worst roster in the NFL in 2020.
Wildcard’s Pick: Niners by 10
Los Angeles Rams (1-0) at Philadelphia Eagles (0-1)
Monday 5.00am NZT
Right so let’s talk about Carson Wentz. Got the best receiving group he’s probably ever had and it’s week one so he’s healthy and late in the second quarter his team was 17-0 up and looking sweet as. Next thing you know...
24-17 win for Washington. They were outscored 20-0 in the second half. But it wasn’t Dwayne Haskins and the WFT offence that got them back in the game, they had five scoring drives in that game and none of them were for more than fifty yards while three of them were less than thirty yards. Philly’s defence actually played pretty well despite the poor situations they were put in – Washington had 2.2 yards per rush and were only around 30% success on third down. The fifth biggest blown lead in Eagles history was entirely down to their terrible offensive meltdown.
Carson Wentz First 27 Mins: 14/18 COMP | 174 YDS | 2 TD
Carson Wentz Last 33 Mins: 8/21 COMP | 71 YDS | 2 INT | 1 FUM
He was also sacked eight times in this game, as the shift in momentum began from Washington’s defensive line (a resurgent Ryan Kerrigan!), feasting out upon a weakened Philly O-Line. Consider that mismatch right there... then consider Wentz’ injury history (including being knocked out of his first playoff game with concussion last season)... then consider that Wentz continually held onto the ball way too long trying to manufacture plays that weren’t gonna happen. It’s a thing Philly fans seem to be pretty pissed about and something he’s continually made clear his whole career that he’s gonna keep doing because in his mind the reward outweighs the risk. But... damn, dude. Pick your moments.
Orlovsky’s sipping the slurpee here, Wentz is no way even a top ten quarterback (I had him at 12 in my rankings last week)... but the overall point about decision making stands…
Wentz was awful against Washington in a game they should have won easy and now they’re in serious danger of dropping to 0-2 against a Rams team that impressed the hell out of me against the Cowboys. Sean McVay has his mojo back! (Without Todd Gurley, no coincidence).
Doesn’t understand how to wear a mask though, bit odd. Like if only there were some other piece of equipment, a clothing appendage for example, that he could have used to cover his mouth with to shield his calls instead of his playbook notes. If only...
Wildcard’s Pick: Rams by 6
Denver Broncos (0-1) at Pittsburgh Steelers (1-0)
Monday 5.00am NZT
Wildcard’s Pick: Steelers by 7
Carolina Panthers (0-1) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (0-1)
Monday 5.00am NZT
I don’t know why there are mascots in empty stadiums? Cheerleaders too for that matter, if there aren’t any proper fans allowed in half these grounds and only minimal fans in the other half then why are we going ahead with the fan service stuff? I s’pose there’s a jerry in that Sir Purr costume trying to get paid, to be fair. Not trying to take away their employment or anything... it’s just weird. Lots about this season is weird. I’ll stop.
It’s like clockwork, Tom Brady loses his first game away from New England and the vultures come out. Some very valuable things to remember about that game...
It was Brady’s first game with a new set of teammates and there was no preseason
The New Orleans Saints are going to win A LOT of games this year, same as last year
He still put up 23 points with 243 passing yards and a couple scores (plus a rush TD)
Jameis Winston was the TBB QB last year and Brady would need to keep up this interception rate all season to match the picks that fella threw in 2019
The pick six was pretty bad but the first interception was just miscommunication with Mike Evans, two new teammates having to figure it out on the fly
The Buccs also fumbled a kickoff and had a field goal blocked and blew a defensive fourth down when a fella jumped offside not to mention a few missed tackles in there
It was only week one
Wildcard’s Pick: Buccaneers by 7
Washington Football Team (1-0) at Arizona Cardinals (1-0)
Monday 8.05am NZT
14 catches for 151 yards? Yeah that’s about right. Only Julio Jones (157) and Davante Adams (156) had more receiving yards in week one and both those guys are established stars for veteran quarterbacks... whereas Hopkins was catching passes for a second year dude in his first game for the team. It was a curious trade when it happened from the Texans point of view even if avoiding the cash was understandable but this was immediately brilliant for the Cardinals and we’re already seeing that.
The best story of all the stories from week one was Ron Rivera. Riverboat Ron’s been diagnosed with cancer and while he’s continuing to do his job throughout it, there are a few things he’s gotta deal with. One is that in order to be sure he had the energy for the full game he arranged for an IV at half-time. His team were down 17-7 at that point, and unable to make the stirring speech to inspire the comeback it was his quarterback Dwayne Haskins who stepped up and offered the words that helped lead to an amazing 24-17 comeback victory. Rivera’s made a priority of bringing the leader out in Haskins and so far so good on that front. This was his first game in charge of the WFT, his first win too. Genuinely happy for the guy.
Wildcard’s Pick: Cardinals by 9
Kansas City Chiefs (1-0) at Los Angeles Chargers (1-0)
Monday 8.25am NZT
Note where they chose to edit the clip, paying close attention to what you hear through your speakers. At first I thought they’d filled it with fake crowd noise for the clapping since it sounded so oddly vivid but I think that’s just because of the small crowd in a huge stadium. But the sound of their booing in the first clip is unmistakable. Maybe they were booing at the pointlessness of inept platitudes which make no meaningful action yet pull those who could make such action off the hook for doing otherwise nothing. Maybe that was the case. Or maybe Missouri (and America in general) just has a lot of racists.
Anyway, can’t blame the players for that. How about that debut from Clyde Edwards-Helaire? 138 yards at 5.5 per carry with a touchdown, looking great on his feet to fit in with the rest of that speedy Chiefs offence but also with a strength and power running ability that gives them a different option... which is just what the rest of the NFL was hoping for, no doubt. One more problem to have to solve against Kansas City. CEH carried the ball 25 times against the Texans and was Offensive Rookie of the Week. Interesting to see if they start to utilise him in the passing game too because they didn’t at all in game one yet word is he’s a more than handy receiver too.
And it wasn’t only that from the Chiefs either, they also did a bit of this too...
Which is rather frightening to consider for the LA Chargers after their offence already looked pretty rank first up. Like, they’re just not a good team right now. They did get the win against Cincinnati but only just, a missed field goal at the end and an overturned touchdown saving them. Ironic, really. Usually the Chargers are the ones who find unique ways to lose... and don’t say it was a Philip Rivers thing either because they lost plenty of crazy late ones in which Rivers played great too. Basically, either Joey Bosa has the game of his life or this game could very quickly get ugly. Pat Mahomes absolutely cruised in week one and that was against a playoff calibre Texans team.
Also, congrats to the NFL itself on the incredible feat of never being able to do anything quite right...
Wildcard’s Pick: Chiefs by 20
Baltimore Ravens (1-0) at Houston Texans (0-1)
Monday 8.25am NZT
Good laughs.
This game and the next one are the two marquee match-ups of week two and by far the two hardest games to predict. But while the prospect of the Texans falling to 0-2 is a strange one... I just don’t see where they can find an advantage against the Ravens. Based on last week it’s gonna take a little while to get the Hopkins-less offence all in sync... which is why I don’t think they’re in anywhere as much trouble as other playoff hopeful teams facing the prospect of 0-2 if they lose this week (Eagles, Lions, Colts & Buccaneers feel like the most on-the-precipice of them). The Texans also have a really tough first half of the season. They just lost to the Chiefs, now they’ve got the Ravens, Steelers, Vikings all in a row. If they’re 1-3 after that month then they should still be okay considering the back half is much easier. They’ll pick up steam and get a roll on down the line. Lots of train metaphors there.
Wildcard’s Pick: Ravens by 7
New England Patriots (1-0) at Seattle Seahawks (1-0)
Monday 12.20pm NZT
Pete Carroll: “First time out it went fine. Seven and six carries wasn't enough for our guys and we need to get more. We were at 20 (runs). We want to get more than that in general. But when Russ was completing every pass we weren't discouraged about moving the football. But we love running the ball, we always have, and those guys will get more carries as we move down through the schedule.”
No. Shut your mouth Pete. Let Russ Cook.
Especially when these fellas just looked great in dropping 38 points in a win over the Falcons. Chris Carson only had six carries but he also had six receptions including two scores. Nothing wrong with that, Carson’s decent and I like the addition of Carlos Hyde to the running back group too but Russell Wilson is by far the best player on this roster and you want your best player determining the outcome. Last year Seattle called the third most run plays in the whole league. Week one they had the highest pass to run disparity of any winning teams (there were five teams that had higher pass percentages but they all lost – losing teams tend to pass more because it saves time on the clock). It worked! Let Russ Cook!
Cam Newton with the Patriots Early Report Card: Very, very good
Cam Newton Fit of the Week: Jim Carrey in The Mask
Wildcard’s Pick: Seahawks by 3
New Orleans Saints (1-0) at Las Vegas Raiders (1-0)
Monday 12.15pm NZT
Michael Thomas is injured...
Nah no worries. That’s what having the deepest roster in the NFL is for. Drew Brees is going to find open receivers regardless of what their names are. Alvin Kamara is a weapon through the air or on the ground. Latavius Murray can handle a heavy workload of runs. Jared Cook gives you yards from tight end. Emmanuel Sanders. Deonte Harris. Tre-Quan Smith. They’ll be fine. They just beat Tampa Bay fairly handily despite Thomas only having three catches for 17 yards... his least effective game for about three years.
It doesn’t sound like Thomas will miss too much time but I have an inkling this could be a blessing in disguise anyway... it’s not serious most of all and it also gives the WR depth a chance to work on their connections with the fella that broke the single season receptions record last year not playing... plus it hammers home that important point that this team can’t lose focus that the peak needs to come at the other end of the season, not this one.
Wildcard’s Pick: Saints by 14
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