It’s Mid-Season Shuffle Time As The Breakers Try To Salvage Their Season
At this stage last season the Breakers were 3-9, soon to be 4-10, just getting themselves out from the self-inflicted wound that was Glen Rice Jr and with RJ Hampton nearing his fifteenth and final appearance for the club. Corey Webster was about to take up a contract in China (and get a first hand experience of being in that country as the coronavirus emerged) while Scotty Hopson was just coming back from injury and about to absolutely dominate the back half of the campaign. Yet thanks to the brilliance of Hopson and their streamlined focus, the Breakers would incredibly go 11-3 over the rest of the term and only just miss out on the post-season by tiebreaker.
That’s an important example to remember right now because at the conclusion of the NBL Cup the Breakers are 4-9 and a long way out of the top four. They have improved from the rubbish that saw them start 1-6 but none of those four wins have come against teams currently in the top quartet and two of them were against the Cairns Taipans, the only team below them on the ladder. The club overcame all that chaos in the first half of last campaign (much of it, like Glen Rice, their own fault... much of it, like injuries and a World Cup interfering with preseason, not their fault) but the fantastic form that followed was supposed to flow on into the new season and put simply: it hasn’t.
There has been no Tall Blacks stuff to disrupt them. No trip overseas to play NBA teams. No Next Star distractions. They had a roster that the experts claimed was good enough to compete for a title. Dan Shamir was coming into his second season much more settled, having had a full year to impress his ideas upon the lads. On the flipside they do have to live full-time in Australia playing all their games away from home so as far as excuses go that’s a major one, as was the NBL’s confusion/indecision regarding what the season would look like and when it would start. Plus once again injuries have plagued this team. Corey Webster’s had to deal with a couple of them already, not to mention the Lamar Patterson and Rob Loe situations.
Assessing the scales, there’s probably just enough there to think that maybe there’s still a candle burning in the window for this campaign. But if they can turn things around from here then it’ll be even more of a comeback story than last time – and don’t forget they didn’t actually make the playoffs then. Under this management, the Breakers have balanced enormous ambitions with impetuous reactions. Dropping Glen Rice Jr into the pot last season was a bit of both of those things – this is the third time that name’s been mentioned here but that’s only because it was such an unforgivably bad decision. Well, the same decision makers are still in charge... and the reactionary calls came hard and fast this week.
With Corey Webster out for 3-4 weeks and Rob Loe back in Aotearoa for the rest of the season, the club has brought in William McDowell-White and Jeremy Kendle as injury replacement players as well as cutting Lamar Patterson and swapping him with Levi Randolph. Drastic changes emerging out of the NBL Cup. Going absolutely all out to try and chase the top four despite, you know... everything.
A quick diversion to talk about The Lamar Patterson Experience...
6 games. 10.8 points per game. 22/60 for 36.7% field goal shooting, including 4/18 for 22.2% from threes. 17/29 for 58.6% from the free throw line. His defensive rating was okay at 111.1 points allowed per hundred possessions but his offensive rating plummets to a disgusting 84.9 – Jarrad Weeks is shooting 18% from deep, he’s got the next worst ORat and it’s still almost 10 points better off.
We all know what happened. Lamar Patterson, a two-time All-NBA starting five selection, came back from playing in Puerto Rico and was out of shape. He was late to join the team having to get through a couple weeks of quarantine and when he got there he couldn’t keep up. There was that one thrilling fourth quarter in a win over Cairns (the team’s first win of the season, Patterson scoring 13 points in the final frame) but other than that he was a heavy anchor dragging the team down. Next thing you know he got injured, no surprises there, and the Breakers got considerably better without him so even fewer surprises that they’ve now cut and replaced him, thus putting a cap on a disastrous situation.
Patterson has landed on his feet, returning to the Brisbane Bullets where he put up numbers of 19.7pts/6.2rebs/4.1ast per game over the last two seasons. Patty himself claimed that the problem was that he never got a rhythm or a routine going with all the moving about. Not sure that fully explains how he was so damn outta shape in first place though. Dan Shamir, in typical form, was a little more ruthless:
“The circumstances with Lamar have been difficult from day one. When we signed Lamar, we knew it was going to be quite some time before we could get him with the team because of COVID border restrictions entering New Zealand... We don't have a home base and there are a lot of external reasons which led to this unsuccessful situation with Lamar and, obviously, it didn't work. Lamar got to us 12 days before game one and unfortunately he was not in top shape to play and it was a difficult situation. It influenced how he played and it influenced the whole team. He was getting in shape and getting better, then he got hurt.”
Lamar Jackson 2020-21 Breakers Shot Chart (via Spacial Jam)
You do have to respect the ambition. This is a team that is desperate to win games, desperate to be successful. But the dumb aspect of this is that McDowell-White, an Aussie dude who has been doing nice things in the G-League lately (and who will stay with the team the rest of the way), was still in America when his signing was announced. Levi Randolph, a 28yo American guard with creative potential (which is massive for Shamir’s system which relies quite a lot on individual talent), is also in America. So they’ve both gotta go through immigration and then quarantine meaning that it’ll be at least three weeks before either is ready to play. Three more weeks of what we’ve been seeing... not quite the immediate relief that injury replacements are supposed to provide, is it?
Dan Shamir estimated it could be another 6-7 games before the new boys can play. At which stage this team could be 6-14 or something and the chances of turning that into a winning season by the time they get to game number 36 is... slim. They’d most likely have to win 13 of 16 games from there. Thankfully Jeremy Kendle will be ready pretty imminently, he’s an American import coming off a quick stint with Adelaide where he was let loose once Brandon Paul rocked up. He’ll only be a temporary addition to the club until Randolph is available but considering Shamir only seems to have about six healthy players that he trusts right now (Finn Delany played ALL FORTY MINUTES last game) that temporary addition will be a crucial one.
Alternatively, you know, they could have picked up a readily-available kiwi or two to fill things out? Ethan Rusbatch did a tidy job for them last time, Hyrum Harris is too good to be without an NBL contract these days. Jack Salt’s probably not fit yet but Alex Pledger is. The Breakers like Colton Iverson because he’s a nice guy who rebounds well and sets heavy screens but damn he doesn’t do much else. He has bad hands and he moves like his shoelaces are tied together. A handy player no doubt but ‘handy’ isn’t the quality you want from your imports. We’re yet to see Iverson do anything that a peak Alex Pledger couldn’t do, that’s for sure.
The criticism of abandoning the kiwi heart of the club has been periodically tossed at the club since its current ownership took over. It’s obviously more complicated than that but let’s just say certain decisions look kinda silly right now. Jordan Ngatai and Tom Vodanovich both excelled at the NBL Showdown in NZ last year. Both had only just been released by the Breakers. Both are now playing really nice role player minutes with other franchises at a time when really nice role players are desperately needed for an exhausted Breakers side.
It didn’t make sense to ignore them then, it makes less sense now watching Dan Trist and Kyrin Galloway do next to nothing of value. And while Rasmus Bach has proved a useful energy player... the team’s defensive rating leaps by 18 points when he’s on the court versus when he’s off. Let alone someone like Yanni Wetzell who literally trained with the Breakers after returning from college yet there never seemed to be any feeling that he’d sign there, instead joining South East Melbourne via Germany via South East Melbourne. Whether that was the Breakers snubbing Wetzell or Wetzell snubbing the Breakers doesn’t actually matter... it’s a bad look either way.
Especially when the three fit kiwis in the squad are literally holding this team together right now. Tai Webster’s usage rate is through the roof as he’s been tasked with amplifying the entire offence. Finn Delany, well he just played forty tireless minutes doing whatever he’s asked to do. And Tom Abercrombie is responsible for the undeniable thrilling knockout moment of the season...
(Do however have to mention that the Breakers blew a 19 point lead to need that buzzer beater to win that game and it’s not like that was how they drew it up in the timeout. Abercrombie’s a gun shooter but he was bloody lucky that ball found its way back to him... also Abercrombie could knock down four of those a game if people ever only bloody passed the ball to him but that’s another issue)
There’s still a decent chunk of the season remaining, we’re not even halfway through (and it’s eight games longer than last time which helps the cause immensely), but this has been a clumsy operation so far. Bad vibes abound. And bad vibes don’t tend to lead to dramatic turnarounds. Especially when they’ve gotta deal with no home court advantage, with key players being run into the ground, without the MVP calibre player who did most of the damage last time, and with depth players that the coach doesn’t even seem to trust. Drastic changes to the roster might even have been necessary... but they’re risky and more than a little desperate. As well as being tacit admissions that the roster they formed at the start of things didn’t cut the mustard.
Then there are the small things. Like how the Breakers’ social media accounts are just meme factories now, as if someone gave the keys to the ferrari to a 14 year old redditor. With a follower base overstocked with the Barstool Sports jerries that they keep appealing to (despite a strong backlash when they put the Barstool logo on the jersey way back when). Matt Walsh is constantly tweeting subtle complaints about refs which is never a classy look (yes, there are dodgy calls... but also bad teams concede more fouls, that’s how it goes). And can’t overlook the stinkiness of their statement when Rob Loe opted out of the season to be with his wife and newborn child. The whole “no further comment” thing is what politicians say when they’ve been snapped sleeping with their secretary, not what clubs say when a player is absent for personal reasons. This is the definition of bad vibes...
That is the impression of the club that they’re putting out into the world. Speaking of which, assistant coach Chanel Pompallier has also returned to Aotearoa and the only mention on the Breakers website of that was a single sentence in the middle of a piece about Corey Webster’s injury. Apparently she’s still doing her job remotely, like many folks choosing the ‘work from home’ option, but maybe a little more focus and some thanks and well-wishes wouldn’t go astray? It’s so stupid, the Breakers seem to have this media policy of pumping up their own hype at every opportunity but absolutely burying anything remotely negative.
Considering they made a big song and dance about hiring a female assistant coach at the time, this also doesn’t exactly quieten those who’d suggest that she’s the odd one out on that coaching staff. It’s Shamir and two of his bros... with Pompallier now not even gonna be there on matchdays any more. A strange working environment made even stranger. Pompallier’s specific role isn’t entirely clear (nothing is with this franchise) but she’s a massively respected basketball mind who has earned that role and she shouldn’t be treated like a token. Not suggesting she is or anything... but remember when Dillon Boucher got squeezed out and then resigned as general manager and they replaced him with lifelong fan Simon Edwards? Who won the Clubman of the Year for last season but who otherwise has been quoted, referred to, mentioned or even alluded to zero times in relation to the team/roster since getting that job? The general manager’s role has plenty more to it than merely signing players... but let’s be honest, we know who calls each and every one of the shots here.
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