There Goes Another Disappointing Breakers Season
You could be forgiven for not even realising that the Breakers season ended when it did. If you’ve already muted the meme factory official social accounts and long since tuned out of the latest procession of defeats then it would’ve been hard to keep up. Couldn’t blame you either. That’s why there hasn’t been much writing on this website about them jokers (outside of a few Substack email notes): there’s been nothing fresh to say.
The pattern was set early and very little changed from then on. A losing streak of six games to begin the campaign and then a losing streak of ten games to end it. To be fair they were okay in between those stretches but there was no consistency. Never won back to back games at any point. They’d produce a thrilling performance in one fixture then lose by 20+ in the very next one.
By the end of things they were releasing players early and kinda just going through the motions on the way to an inevitable wooden spoon, particularly after losing consecutive games to the Cairns Taipans in what felt like their last chance to get off the bottom of the ladder. Final record: 5-23. Four fewer wins than the club has ever mustered before in its history. Even those first few years when they were still figuring things out as an expansion team the Breakers still churned out better yarns than the pitiful 17.9% winning rate of 2021-22.
It’s very hard to blame the players for zoning out over the final couple months. It was a long season spent away from home, going from hotel to hotel, away from friends and family in many cases. And sure they’re all professional athletes and to some extent that’s part of the gig but okay then from a professional athlete perspective... that meant no home-court advantage whatsoever. Every game was either neutral or away and that’s quite obviously a huge disadvantage. The second season in a row spent under such circumstances (excluding a nice run of homers last term after their playoff hopes had already effectively been extinguished).
That sacrifice (as it tends to be described) was presumably at the heart of Breakers General Manager Simon Edwards being rewarded with the NBL’s Executive of the Year award. A very deserved reward for a bloke who has very much had his work cut out for him arranging everything for this team, and who by all accounts is also a lovely human being. Do gotta draw a line here between Breakers GM and, say, the role that Sean Marks does with the Brooklyn Nets in the NBA though. Because Edwards isn’t exactly calling the shots on the player recruitment side of things. We’re talking literal ‘general managing’ here. Its widely understood that owner/CEO Matt Walsh puts the roster together working with coach Dan Shamir.
That’s an important distinction to make since as much as the NBL establishment very much wanted to throw a bone the Breakers way with some sort of acknowledgement of the last two years of heavy lifting (doing so in the form of a ceremonial gesture... compared to, say, giving them a majority of home games over the next two years to make up for it which only seems fair), there’s just no way that award could’ve been justified had the roster construction been a part of consideration. Because, yet again, that’s where it all started to go awry.
Same old dramas. Since the Breakers changed ownership there’s been a pattern of signing players based on talent rather than fit. As in: get the best possible players and trust the coaching staff to whip them into basketball shape. At the same time there’s also been a seemingly contradictory tendency towards Next Star talent. Future NBA prospects. Both of those things were as evident as ever this term in a baffling have-your-cake-and-eat-it-to kinda way.
Next Star players are nice but they don’t contribute to winning basketball. How could they? Extremely young pros still honing their craft. Potential over production. Plus they’ve understandably got two wide eyes staring towards the NBA Draft. None of which meshes with a Win Now mentality, especially if they’re going to be getting big minutes... and the Breakers had two of them. Ousmane Dieng as the official Next Star but they liked his French compatriot Hugo Besson so much that they used a precious import spot on him as an effective second Next Star.
Regardless, we were still promised a “championship caliber” roster...
You don’t need the ins and outs of the roster again. Even with the Webster Bros released they still found themselves with an abundance of ball-handers who didn’t necessarily gel together naturally. Plus the two young fellas. Plus a bunch of early season injuries and some covid cases. The covid stuff was unfortunate. The injury stuff seems to be a recurring pattern with this team under Coach Shamir for some reason. When it happens every season, eventually you have to think that’s not a coincidence for a coach who does tend to ride his main guys for big minutes (a covid/travel disrupted preseason certainly didn’t help in this instance either).
All of these feel like legit reasons for a season to go to the pits... until you look at the Wellington Phoenix who have also had covid outbreaks in the squad, who have had an even worse injury crisis (which also includes the club captain missing half the season), have had the same issue with the lack of home games, and yet they’re on the brink of making the playoffs. Even the much maligned Warriors, one Anzac Day game aside (against a team that thrashes most teams tbf), currently have a 4-4 record eight weeks in. Almost matched the Breakers win total already.
How come those teams are at least able to stay competitive despite the same hurdles? Because they’re better run organisations, to be blunt about it. And certainly in the Welly Nix’s case a much better coached team. Ufuk Talay is as good as any manager in the A-League and what he’s achieved with that team this year despite it all has been incredible. Including the mental fortitude to respond to tough days at the office. The Nix have been thrashed a few times themselves but four of the six times they’ve lost by 4+ goals this term they’ve won the very next match.
The Breakers have not shown that resilience. The Breakers have given the impression of a team that has allowed themselves to be victims of their own circumstances. That isn’t a critique of the players, it’s merely human nature for doubts to emerge when you can’t see the light at the end of the tunnel. Ultimately that falls back upon a lack of confidence, a lack of tactical foundations, and a lack of motivation. All of which stem from the coaching staff, to be honest. They can in turn pass at least some of that blame up the ladder towards roster construction but this roster was far from terrible. It’s just that the Talent > Fit strategy falls to pieces when your coach is unable to get the Fit part working.
In Dan Shamir’s first season as coach, the Breakers finished 15-13 and missed the playoffs
In Dan Shamir’s second season as coach, the Breakers finished 12-24 and missed the playoffs
In Dan Shamir’s third season as coach, the Breakers finished 5-23 and missed the playoffs
Dan Shamir is contracted as Breakers coach for two further seasons and has already had one contract option picked up and received another extension during his time at the club. Effectively that’s two extensions despite a 32-60 record. What the actual fuck is going on, bruh? You can make a loose case that there are enough mitigating factors that let Shamir off the hook but all that means is we don’t know how good and successful he can be. You don’t give out multiple extensions to Maybes.
The Breaks were also 12-16 in the Kevin Braswell season which means that they are 44-76 all up since the change in ownership and have whiffed on the playoffs four straight times... having made the semis in the immediate previous term with Paul Henare in charge. The accidental dismantling of what was once the case study franchise for Trans-Tasman sporting success though repeated poor decision-making has been so sad to witness.
In that case let’s talk about a rare positive, of which there was none brighter than Yanni Wetzell. Nominated for Most Improved Player across the NBL, he might well have even won that title had his rookie season not also been pretty great with SEM Phoenix. His signing was a great boost for the Breakers. They inexplicably missed out on him a year ago despite him training with the team in the offseason (Wetzell is from Auckland so it was all local) but this time they scooped him up and he delivered reliably outstanding performance after reliably outstanding performance. Almost always in losing cases but that was less his fault than anyone else - Wetzell top scored in three of the team’s five wins.
Wetzell averaged 17.7 points per game shooting a spectacular 59.4% from the field. Not a three point shooter at all but he doesn’t mind a pop from the mid-range and is a really good finisher around the rim. Chuck in some lovely rebounding to the tune of 8.4 per game (3.0 of them offensive, another huge aspect of his game) plus better than an assist (1.3), steal (1.6), and block (1.1) per game. He’s got great feet defensively and great strength too. A fantastic campaign from him... aptly rewarded with an early departure a couple of games before the end in order to take up a deal with Spanish EuroLeague club Saski Baskonia.
Gotta say, it’s a pity to see him leave considering he still had two years (and a couple games) remaining on his Breakers contract. But it was the fair thing to do to allow him that opportunity... plus the Breakers did do some fine business themselves from that transaction. Wetzell had an out-clause to chase a EuroLeague deal when he signed with South East Melbourne last season that he initially took up but then returned to the Phoenix when passport issues spoiled his move to Germany. Dunno if there was anything similar in his Breakers contract, would be surprised if there wasn’t tbh, but can’t argue with these numbers...
We’re talking around NZ$290k right there, friends. For a club whose gate receipts have been absolutely wrecked the last two years that’s a pretty handy profit (assuming it’s accurate, of course – never quite know for sure with these things).
Which, by the way, leaves them with only three contracted players for next season: Tom Abercrombie, Sam Timmins, and Rob Loe. And Rob Loe spent large portions of this season iced out of the rotation entirely despite his long history of efficient production in this league. Such a useful player and yet Rasmus Bach ended up playing more minutes than him this season. It’s not like the stats were terrible either. Loe’s Net Rating (per SpatialJam) was -9.5. A long way from being good but considerably better than the likes of Finn Delany, Hugo Besson, Chasson Randle... most of the team for that matter. Yanni Wetzell was on an island in that one, by the way. 125.6 Offensive Rating and 109.6 Defensive Rating for a +16.0 Net Rating. The only Breakers player in the positives and he was miles ahead. Pretty remarkable.
Not sure what happened with Finn Delany. He didn’t look like a happy chappy and he seemed to suffer as much as anyone from the changing offence. With Wetzell dominating down low, Delany had less room for his own post touches while his jump shot seemed to abandon him. Last season he shot 34.5% from 200 three-point attempts. This season he shot 29.7% from 118 attempts.
Speaking of shooting percentages, some of these get rather ugly...
Chasson Randle: 36.4 FG% | 31.1 3P% | 79.3 FT%
Peyton Siva: 36.6 FG% | 33.1 3P% | 82.2 FT%
Tom Abercrombie: 37.9 FG% | 32.7 3P% | 75.0 FT%
Hugo Besson: 38.6 FG% | 30.8 3P% | 79.5 FT%
Jeremiah Martin: 39.2 FG% | 22.6 3P% | 71.0 FT%
Finn Delany: 39.4 FG% | 29.7 3P% | 72.7 FT%
Ousmane Dieng: 39.8 FG% | 27.1 3P% | 66.7 FT%
William McDowell-White: 41.0 FG% | 36.9 3P% | 92.9 FT%
Yanni Wetzell: 59.4 FG% | 0.00 3P% | 72.0 FT%
Those are the ten leaders in minutes played. Shocking three point shooting in particular, even from guys who are usually really good in that area. Hugo Besson attempted the most threes with 156 of them. Peyton Siva was next with 142, then Delany’s 118, then Ousmane Dieng’s 96. Siva is the only one of that quartet who shot better than league average.
Shout out to William McDowell-White. He was another rare positive, a guy who took a lovely step forward as a shooter to go with some already impressive passing abilities. Don’t rate the idea that he only shot 14 free throws in 573 minutes of action though – needs a little more penetration in his game and he’ll be in a fantastic place. Nevertheless, it was good from that fella who should have been given far more opportunity to shoot in that offensive system than he was.
Another lesson from those numbers was that Peyton Siva, whose wonky jump shot was supposedly such a weakness in his game, was actually way more reliable than most. Plus he was one of the team’s best defenders and it’s not like there was a lot of defence to go around. The Breakers, after all, just logged one of the worst team defensive seasons that you’re likely to see. Let’s list a few numbers...
The Breakers allowed opponents to shoot at a 54.1% effective field goal percentage (NBL worst)
The Breakers allowed opponents a true shooting percentage of 57.4% (NBL worst)
The Breakers allowed opponents to shoot 35.9% from three point range (NBL worst)
The Breakers opponents logged an offensive rating of 115.8 for the season (NBL worst)
The Breakers allowed opponents to grab 79.7% of available defensive rebounds (NBL worst)
To be fair they were only second worst in terms of points allowed per game (88.5)... but they were also third worst in terms of points scored per game (79.8)
Here’s a convenient graphic from Spatial Jam. The darker the blue areas are, the higher above league average shots from those areas were against NZB (while red/orange = below league average).
That three point defence is just abysmal and when you combine that with the Breaks also being the second worst three point shooting team in the competition and it’s safe to say that was a rather defining weakness. Absolutely torched at the perimeter night after night and at both ends... jeepers.
Ah but that’s just the way it is with the Breakers these days. You can wonder how much a fully fit Tom Abercrombie would have helped them. You can wonder what benefit a full slate of home games might have had. You can wonder about some of their recruitment. You can wonder about injuries. You can wonder about the covid outbreak early on and the damage that did to their preparations. You can wonder about the dual Next Star strategy. You can wonder about specifics in Dan Shamir’s in-game strategies. There are all sorts of excuses, same as every other year with this team. But the bottom line is that they’ve disappointed once again.
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