Previewing The Tall Ferns Quest For 2024 Olympic Qualification
It’s been a long time since Aotearoa last had a basketballing presence at the Olympics. You’ve got to go all the way back to the 2008 Olympic Games in Beijing for the last appearance. There was a time when it was a much more common occurrence: the Tall Blacks and Tall Ferns both qualified for Sydney 2000 and Athens 2004... but that was back when Oceania’s runners-up got an automatic spot. The folks who make those decisions have since redistributed that place elsewhere and now we don’t qualify any more.
The problem is those pesky Aussies. In order to go through automatically, the Tall Blacks/Tall Ferns have tended to need to either outperform or straight-up defeat Australia. When they predictably don’t manage to do so, there are usually still qualifying tournaments to follow but those are really hard too. The Tall Blacks head to another of those tourneys in July where they’ll play Slovenia and Croatia, needing to win at least one of those games to progress to the semis where Egypt, Greece, or the Dominican Republic will await from the other group in their section (hosted in Greece). Only the winner of this six-team competition will make it to Paris 2024 so don’t hold your breath with Luka Doncic and Giannis Antetokounmpo potentially lining up to face the haka.
The Tall Ferns have lived through similar experiences of not being able to beat Australia, then not being able to win those qualifying tournaments. Last time they didn’t even attend their tournament as pandemic problems left BBNZ too poor to bother. But the women’s team are still the most recent Olympians. They made the cut back in 2008 thanks to the stroke of fortune that was Australia winning the 2006 World Cup. That meant the Opals got direct entry to the next Olympics, thus New Zealand made it through as Oceania’s nominee despite losing heavily to the Aussies twice in qualifying.
At those 2008 Games, things began nicely with a 76-72 win over Mali (Angela Marino top-scoring with 19 points). But the Tall Ferns then lost all four of their remaining games and didn’t qualify for the quarter-finals, unable to repeat what they’d done in the 2004 Olympics. Those four defeats came against Spain, China, Czech Republic, and USA - with three of them by 20+ points margins. In light of the decade and a half that followed, though, it was a blessing simply to be there. Keep in mind that the Tall Ferns have only ever been to one World Cup and that was in 1994 (Leanne Walker was part of that roster).
That’s your history lesson for today. The Tall Ferns did something brilliant at the Asia Cup last year, making the semi-finals for the first time despite integrating a bunch of new players in the process. Here’s a round-up of all that. That top four finish was important for its own merit but it also had a further reward: a place in the Olympic qualifying tournaments. Oceania’s been swallowed up into Asia now so anything less than top four and the Olympic dream would have vanished upon waking.
Instead they’ve earned their way into the last sixteen remaining teams, and to make it into the actual event they’ll need to finish in the top three of a group alongside: France, China, and Puerto Rico. No easy task there as Aotearoa are comfortably the lowest ranked team in that group. France have already qualified as hosts so they’re just going through the motions. NZ’s mini-tournament is being held in China starting on Feb 8 local time. Effectively, they need to win one of three games to advance and it’ll almost certainly need to be against Puerto Rico in the second game since China smashed us 80-46 in that Asia Cup and France aren’t much worse.
All things considered, this might be the best chance to qualify that the Tall Ferns have had for years upon years. Yet there’s one slight, minor, teensy issue... we’ve been cursed. At least it seems that way with a horrendous run of key injuries happening at exactly the wrong time for Guy Molloy’s team. None worse than Charlisse Leger-Walker, who tore her ACL playing for Washington State University just hours before the squad was made public.
CLW’s injury has ramifications way beyond these qualifiers. For starters, if the team does progress onwards to Paris 2024 without her then, unlike some of the other injured players, Charlisse won’t be fit in time to partake in the Games themselves in July/August. She’s also going to miss the end of her college career, unable to lead her Cougars team at the National Tournament for the fourth year in a row. There are a few school records that she would have broken which now won’t be the case (although she has already set a new NZ record for points in NCAA Division 1 basketball).
Most importantly, this will affect her upcoming WNBA Draft stocks. Yet perhaps not in the same way. She might drop down the board due to concerns about the injury, but then again she might not because these days players are coming back from long-term injuries all the time and simply picking up where they left off. It’s actually disturbingly common (particularly ACLs in women’s sports). And CLW has given three-and-a-half years of evidence as to what she can offer a WNBA team – several media outlets were forecasting her as a top ten pick prior to this injury. If teams wanted her before, they’ll still want her after (even though probably she’ll miss her entire rookie season, which runs from May until October).
There’s only ever been one New Zealander to play WNBA and that was Megan Compain who signed with the Utah Starzz as an undrafted free agent in 1997... so from top-10 predictions, Leger-Walker still has a lot of room to fall and still do something unprecedented. Anyway, the fit matters way more than the draft number when it comes to these things. A team that’ll draft her while injured is a team that genuinely sees the vision.
Although... there is one other possibility: she could cash her extra year of eligibility and return to WSU. All players who were around during the covid-affected seasons have the option of an additional year, her sister Krystal already took hers up in order to have another crack with a winning team last season. The calendars don’t align between college and the pros. If CLW is going to miss most/all of her rookie WNBA campaign then maybe she’d prefer to delay declaring for the draft and play the NCAA season leading up to next year’s edition instead. She should be available for at least the second half of the college season. Charlisse had made it clear that she planned to enter the draft this year but this injury obviously changes matters. Staying back for a fifth year would mean delaying that clarity about her future and sacrificing a professional team’s medical assistance (and salary), but it’d also mean getting to recover in a familiar and supportive environment with the chance to return to the court and prove her fitness prior to the 2025 Draft. Something to ponder on.
Except none of that is going to help the Tall Ferns beat Puerto Rico, who qualified for the last Olympics and last two World Cups. Arella Guirantes is on their roster, born and raised in American but with Puerto Rican heritage. Guirantes was drafted 22nd overall in 2021 and has played WNBA for LA Sparks and Seattle Storm. She’s one of two Puerto Rican internationals to have played WNBA.
Can the Tall Ferns win that game without Charlisse Leger-Walker? Yeah sure. But can they win it without CLW or Penina Davidson? That’s harder to envisage. Davidson is one of the few proper pros in our ranks, currently with the Melbourne Boomers in the Aussie WNBL where she won a championship in 2022. It was Davidson who made the All-Tournament team at the Asia Cup last year where she was the second-leading rebounder across all teams. Her presence as a rebounder, a screener, and a finisher in close has been massive for the Tall Ferns in recent years, arguably their defining stratagem, but Davidson picked up a groin strain a few weeks out from this tour. The word out of the Melbourne Boomers was that “she will be assessed for return to play” after this FIBA break... and sure enough she hasn’t recovered in time.
Oh but that’s not all. Tahlia Tupaea has had a nasty run of injuries in recent years – including struggling with a shoulder issue during the Asia Cup – and remains on the sidelines, keeping her out of the WNBL season where she was going to play for UC Capitals. Tuapea was actually drafted by Minnesota Lynx at 36 overall a few years back, though was never signed (and also was still affiliated with Australia at the time - she has dual-heritage but was born and raised in Sydney). Tupaea has looked like she could be a genuine second-scorer for the Ferns when she’s been available but that availability hasn’t often happened, sadly.
Then, yeah, just in case Coach Molloy was hoping to replace CLW and Davidson with WNBL-experienced options like Krystal Leger-Walker and Kalani Purcell... nope, that’s not happening either. KLW is unavilable for personal reasons and Purcell, who was named in the extended squad, isn’t quite ready yet having given birth last May (she’s married to Tall Blacks centre Tyrell Harrison). Might as well add that that Mary Goulding would have been here in the alternate universe where she never had that car accident. Hope MG’s doing well these days.
Here is that 16-player extended squad which Coach Molloy named back in November:
Stella Beck, McKenna Dale, Tayla Dalton, Penina Davidson, Kendell Heremaia, Lauryn Hippolite, Charlisse Leger-Walker, Krystal Leger-Walker, Esra McGoldrick, Tera Reed, Zoe Richards, Sharne Robati, Ritorya Tamilo, Kalani Purcell, Tahlia Tupaea & Lauren Whittaker
From that group there are five players who’ve had to withdraw – including their two very best (possibly even three best, depending on where you split it between Tupaea and Tera Reed). So they’ve actually had to dip beyond this extended squad just to fill out a 12-woman roster for the trip to China. At least they were able to negotiate a release for Tayla Dalton from St Mary’s college. They negotiated Charlisse’s availability too but alas the fates had other ideas.
CLW was still named in the squad since it would have been picked before the injury happened. At some stage soon they’ll surely name a replacement and perhaps this article will get updated to reflect that. Eva Langton is going along as a training player – she’s 24 years old and has been with the Tokomanawa Queens for the last two seasons. She only played a total of 20 minutes in 2023 though was a regular starter as the Queens won the Tauihi title in 2022 (averaging 8.6 points and 5.4 rebounds per game). They might simply elevate her to the squad, dunno.
(UPDATE: A few days after the squad was announced, BBNZ did indeed announced a CLW replacement and the winner was… drum roll… Pahlyss Hokianga! Hokianga is a guard from out of the Hawke’s Bay who played for the Mid-North Whai in the last Tauihi season. She’s got a solid reputation at age grade level, having played U15s and U16s for NZ... but not much else because Pahlyss Hokianga is still only 16 years of age. In fact, if she takes the court she will become the youngest ever Tall Fern, breaking the current record which is held by the player she’s replacing in this squad: Charlisse Leger-Walker.
It’s a brave call within a roster that was already desperately short on experience. Probably a baffling one to a few other guards around the motu. If Hokianga ends up being as good as CLW then you’d also have to call it an inspired piece of scouting, though it’s hard to see how a 16 year old is going to help this team qualify for the Olympics right now. They must have felt they already had the firepower to get the job done, leaving them room to offer a developmental opportunity to one of the nation’s most promising up-and-comers. It’s always exciting to see which players the folks in the know handpick as the special ones).
Given the limitations, there was no choice but to lean on youth and inexperience. But given the growth of kiwi basketball lately the flipside is that there’s never been a better time to have to do so. In particular there’s a serious focus on size with this group. One of those is Amy West who was not initially part of that wider squad but Davidson and Purcell’s situations have opened the door. West recently graduated from St Mary’s where she was a teammate of Tayla Dalton. She’s 24 years old and stands at 6’4.
Also standing at that same height is 18yo Ritorya Tamilo, who was at the Asia Cup and is currently a development player with Bendigo Spirit in the WNBL, while the big bolter is Lauren Whittaker who’s only 17 years old and 6’2. Her presence in the extended squad initially felt like a developmental move but now here she is potentially going to get minutes against China, France, and Puerto Rico. Plus we’ve got a recall for Zoe Richards who, at 26 years of age, is a little more experienced than those others and will probably be the woman most relied upon to do those Nina Davidson things.
As for the scoring and play-making, lots of that will have to be taken up by McKenna Dale (24yo) and Sharne Robati (23yo), a pair of excellent Tauihi level players who are each in line for international debuts. Robati is the niece of Steven and Valerie Adams and kiwi sporting pedigree doesn’t come much greater than that. Dale has been playing a bit of WNBL this season with Bendigo Spirit, she’s a former NZ age grade international though spent much of her formative basketball years growing up in the USA. If there’s going to be a breakout player for the Tall Ferns on this tour, McKenna Dale should be the betting favourite.
Plenty more talent where that came from. Esra McGoldrick is also with Bendigo Spirit and her shooting range is going to be helpful, while Tayla Dalton’s unstoppable energy is a benefit to any team. Good to see Lauryn Hippolite back in the mix too. She’s been a development player with the Melbourne Boomers in the past and the 23yo’s role just got a whole lot bigger with the absence of any Leger-Walkers (although there is technically one as Leanne Walker is one of the assistant coaches, along with Jody Cameron and Mel Downer).
Which brings us to the two key players. Stella Beck is the captain and she’s by far the most experienced international here. Not playing WNBL this season but has done so in the past. Every Aotearoa basketball team needs a player like Stella Beck who does a little bit of everything with a whole lot of heart. A leader who sets the example for those around her. This team needs that presence more than ever with so many youngsters involved.
Then there’s Akiene-Tera Reed, who had an excellent Asia Cup and has continued that form into not only a Melbourne Boomers contract but a starting role for the best team in Australia (although she’s come off the bench in the last couple). Reed’s offensive game is built around her slashing to the basket yet for Melbourne she’s also suddenly been draining threes at a remarkable rate. She led the entire league for 3P% after the first few rounds. Naturally that’s slowed down since but she’s still affecting games – winning the team’s player of the day nod in her most recent game after scoring 21 points on 7/14 shooting in a loss to Bendigo (none of the Bendigo Kiwis got minutes that day).
Tera Reed is a rangy defender, a strong rebounder, and she’s now begun scoring from multiple levels. In a team with Charlisse LW and Penina Davidson that would give the Tall Ferns offensive variety like they’ve never known before. That’s not how things have worked out... but we’re damn lucky to still have ATR around. In a squad stacked with all these painful instances of brutally bad timing, Tera Reed has picked a fantastic moment to uncover her career-best form.
Beyond all that, well, it wouldn’t be Aotearoa basketball if there wasn’t adversity to overcome upon the journey. Might as well just shrug it off and go qualify for the Olympics.
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