Previewing The Tall Blacks’ 2024 Olympic Qualifying Campaign
A few months ago, the Tall Ferns set out to qualify for the Paris 2024 Olympics. They did not make it. Despite it being their best chance for nearly two decades, they received absolutely no luck as injuries ravaged their squad – including to key players like Charlisse Leger-Walker and Penina Davidson – and simply did not have the juice to overcome some tough opponents. That’s how it goes sometimes. There’s a recap of their exploits over here if you need a refresher.
Aotearoa has not had a presence at an Olympic basketball tournament, male or female, since 2008 when the Tall Ferns last made it. Both teams were there in 2000 and 2004 but then they stopped giving Oceania two qualification spots and that changed the game. The only reason the Ferns made it in 2008 is because Australia were the current World Cup champions which gave them an automatic spot and left Oceania’s one open to be claimed. That Tall Ferns series in February shaped as the best chance we’ve had to get back there since and it was cursed from the outset by injuries. So can the Tall Blacks end the drought instead?
Probably not. Like, realistically speaking, this quest is about as tricky as it gets. The Tall Blacks were once again the second ranked team in Oceania after Australia outperformed them at the World Cup. That meant a spot in the second-chance Qualifying Tournaments which is what this squad has been picked for. The OQTs see four tournaments spread around the globe pitting the last 24 remaining teams in contention against each other for the final four spots in Paris. One from each tourney.
New Zealand were seeded in the fourth of six pots for the draw, and have been sent to Greece to seek their opportunity. In the preliminary round, the Tall Blacks will play Croatia and Slovenia (on back to back nights) and they need to win at least one of those games in order to progress to the semi-finals, where they would meet either Egypt, Dominican Republic, or hosts Greece. Obviously from there they’d need to win that semi-final. Then they’d also need to win the final because only one team from all of these nations ultimately gets to qualify. The Tall Blacks actually played against a couple of them at the World Cup last year. They lost 83-74 to Greece in pool play and then beat Egypt 88-86 in the classifications. Naturally we’ve got a Tall Blacks x 2023 FIBA World Cup round-up in the archives too.
Luka Doncic plays for Slovenia. Giannis Antetokounmpo plays for Greece (and wasn’t there at the World Cup). Karl-Anthony Towns plays for the Dominican Republic. Croatia will have several NBA players themselves, while Egypt gave the Tall Blacks a mighty difficult game at the World Cup. Hopefully those heroes aren’t all available but even without them we can still expect a plethora of EuroBall geezers. Rankings suggest that Croatia and Egypt might be beatable... but that’s not enough. The Tall Blacks have to top the lot of them in order to make the Olympics. It’s not exactly a wide open pathway for the lads.
You’ll never find a quitter in an Aotearoa basketball singlet though. Other areas, perhaps, considering how they pulled out of this tournament phase last time for financial/pandemic reasons. But on the court? Never. We saw that clearly enough at the World Cup when they were without roughly half of their ideal squad due to injuries, retirements, and unavailabilities (Steven Adams injured, Rob Loe & Tom Abercrombie retired, The Webster Bros & Sam Waardenburg unavailable) and never once was the heart or mana in question.
Coach Cameron has picked a 14-man squad for the OQTs with five more bros held aside as non-travelling reserves. That quintet will be the designated replacements in the probability that any of the fourteen get injured or become unavailable.
The Squad: Flynn Cameron, Finn Delany, Ben Gold, Hyrum Harris, Tyrell Harrison, Shea Ili, Izayah Le’Afa, Jordan Ngatai, Ethan Rusbatch, Reuben Te Rangi, Tom Vodanovich, Sam Waardenburg, Corey Webster & Yanni Wetzell.
Non-Travelling Reserves: Taylor Britt, Dan Fotu, Sam Timmins, Taine Murray & Sam Mennenga
That 14-man group will travel to Europe in about a month’s time with friendlies in place against Finland (26 June) and Poland (29 June) – both of those being higher-ranked opponents. After those two games the squad will be cut to 12 for the OQT itself.
Eight of these players were also at the World Cup so there’s plenty of continuity. Delany, Te Rangi, Le’Afa, Ili, Wetzell, Ngatai, Cameron, and Harris. Also Taylor Britt who is amongst the reserves. The biggest absentee is definitely Isaac Fotu, who played a little less than expected at the World Cup (seventh-most minutes in the squad despite playing every game) but he still remained very effective and has been one of the key players in this team for a long time. So where’s Isaac Fotu? His Japanese team just ended their season with a quarter-final series defeat within the past week and even if they’d advanced all the way (which they’d have expected to do as the number one seed) he still would have been free in time to participate.
Nope, this one’s a personal withdrawal, same with Tohi Smith-Milner from that World Cup squad, same with Tai Webster who was also absent from the World Cup. To be fair to each of these fellas, they’ve all been through several World Cup and Olympic cycles in the past and all are based overseas (Japan for Fotu, Australia for the other two) for most of the year and between training camps, friendlies, and the qualifiers themselves that’s getting rather close to a 12-month season on top of their existing club commitments (both T-Web & TSM are currently playing NZ NBL). Folks got families too, ya know? In fact, Tai Webster is expecting the birth of his first child soon so that’ll be why he’s stepped aside. Fair enough.
But Corey Webster is back. CW withdrew from consideration for the World Cup after having initially been in the wider training camp squad but the Olympic dream remains so he’s returning to add to his 93 international caps. Sam Waardenburg was never in contention for the World Cup as he prioritised the start of his professional career. NBA Summer League, Cairns Taipans duties, and a few injuries took precedence at the time but he’s ready to go again now, having recently signed an extension with the Taipans. Tyrell Harrison’s breakthrough season with Brisbane Bullets – for which he was shortlisted for the NBL’s Most Improved Player award – has seen him surge into the mix as a sturdy old fashioned big. Ethan Rusbatch will offer some wing depth and shooting. Tom Vodanovich is in having missed the cut for the World Cup. Two experienced and established depth blokes. And Ben Gold is the prerequisite prospect pick.
Not suggesting that Ben Gold, the only college player in the group (although Taine Murray is one of the ressies), is here purely for development. A sophomore season at Marquette University in which he averaged 5.0 points and 3.0 rebounds (44.7% from the field and 35.9% from deep) might suggest as much, but he did double his minutes from year one to year two and those numbers are likely to catch a further boost next season, with Marquette’s starting power forward Oso Ighodaro having declared for the NBA Draft thus opening up a prospective starting spot for the Wellingtonian.
Gold is 6’11 and has a propensity for highlight dunks, as well as a more than passable jump shot. Yes there are fellas who are probably ahead of him in the here-and-now but that’s still a dude who can make an impact. Thing is, BBNZ squads often seem to find room for a hot prospect or two these days, letting them jump the queue in order to further advance their careers. Last time the Tall Blacks were in action, for Asia Cup qualifiers, we saw Julius Halaifonua and Hayden Jones given debuts as teenagers. The Tall Ferns took 16yo Pahlyss Hokianga to their OQTs. You could argue Walter Brown filled that role at the World Cup. It’s an encouraging trend – not in the least because it helps us fans, from a distance, see who’s been identified as the top emerging prospects. Once again though, Ben Gold is here to play. He’s 21 years old and has already made six apps for the TBs. Size and shooting from the power forward position never go astray.
The main issue that the team had at the World Cup was a lack of top-level depth. Nobody reflected that more than Izayah Le’Afa who was superb in the team’s two wins and pretty awful in the team’s three defeats. Averaged 25 points with 38.9% three-point shooting in those two wins. Averaged 4.7 points on 19% three-point shooting in the defeats. This squad looks better poised to absorb those fluctuations with Corey Webster in there as an additional legitimate scorer plus guys like Flynn Cameron and Hyrum Harris having improved significantly over their subsequent NBL campaigns.
We haven’t really seen much of Sam Waardenburg at this level so his integration is an unknown factor – a big man with good shooting and sneakily decent passing as well. SW’s scoring actually dropped in his second swing with the Taipans, partly due to a shooting slump, though there’s no doubt he’s got something fresh to offer this team. As does Tyrell Harrison who gives the TBs a rebounding, down low centre presence such as they haven’t really had for a few years. At least not at a 9.6 points, 6.2 rebounds per NBL game kinda level. That was in only 21 mins per night as well. Several of these players have made huge strides in their careers since that World Cup, arguably none more than Tyrell Harrison.
The preferred starting five at the FIBA WC was: Shea Ili, Reuben Te Rangi, Jordan Ngatai, Finn Delany & Yanni Wetzell. Sometimes Izayah Le’Afa swapping in for Ngatai. All six of those blokes are back so there’s no need to change that dynamic, though Webster, Waardenburg, and Harrison will all be challenging to do so. Let’s have a guess as a depth chart...
PG – Ili | Cameron | (Britt)
SG – Le’Afa | Webster | (Murray)
SF – Te Rangi | Ngatai | Rusbatch | (D.Fotu)
PF – Delany | Harris | Gold | Vodanovich | (Mennenga)
C – Wetzell | Harrison | Waardenburg | (Timmins)
Obviously some of them fellas will cover multiple positions so don’t read too much into those guesses but hopefully it does put the squad into some deeper perspective.
Eight of these hombres are currently playing NZ NBL. Needless to say, this stuff takes priority over that stuff... which will shake up the domestic competition because those guys will all miss at least three rounds of action. Touch and go whether they’ll be back in time for the final round of the season though they should all be available when the finals roll around. The Auckland Tuatara shape to lose three of their starting five (Webster/Te Rangi/Vodanovich) when that happens – they’re top of the table with an 8-2 record, as this is being written, so they’d better hope they keep on winning to buy themselves some wiggle room. Wellington Saints are also looking like one of the championship contenders but will lose two key players over this stretch (Le’Afa/Harris). Taranaki (Cameron), Hawke’s Bay (Ngatai), and Franklin (Rusbatch) are the other teams that’ll be affected.
One last idea: Is there any chance that Steven Adams would be available if the Tall Blacks qualify? Well, he was supposedly going to make himself an option for the World Cup until he got injured so the door is more open now than it’s ever been before. Pero Cameron certainly has the sway to at least get him interested. It’s also fair to say that the Olympics could have a sentimental value to Adams given how sister Valerie is a legend of the games while he was there to support fellow sister Lisa in winning Paralympic gold during the last ones. Unfortunately though... he’s still injured. Blame the Memphis Grizzlies medical staff for that. His new Houston Rockets crew have been pretty consistent in saying they expect him to be entirely healthy by the start of training camp. That’ll be September/October range, about a month after the Olympics... so it’s not impossible. But that timeframe makes it very unlikely. Plus, you know, we’d have to qualify first and that’s arguably even more unlikely. This lot will give it their best crack though, of that we can be sure.
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