While the Golden State Warriors and San Antonio Spurs are cruising towards history at the top of the NBA’s Western Conference, and the likes of the Los Angeles Lakers and Phoenix Suns are readily preparing for next year and have been for months now, there’s a heated battle going on in the middle for the last few playoff spots.

A glance at the standings and the first four seeds are more or less locked in even with a couple weeks to play. The Warriors will end top, it’s just a matter of whether they get to 73 wins or not. As it stands they need to win seven of their last nine games and given that they have six of those games at home and are unbeaten all season at home… it’s not a bad bet to make that they do just that.

Second place will be the Spurs, they already can’t finish any lower than that. The Oklahoma City Thunder should nab third and the LA Clippers ought to be good for fourth. Looking at the Memphis Grizzlies and some of the line-ups they’re playing they should be hovering around the lottery spots and yet somehow coach Dave Joerger and company have masterminded a probable fifth seed. They’ll be the first team in NBA history to make the playoffs while using 27 different players. The Grizz did lose to the Lakers the other day, so maybe it ain’t too late for them to slip but for all they’ve battled through this season, surely not.

And then we have the filthy four. The Portland Trailblazers, Utah Jazz, Houston Rockets and Dallas Mavericks. There are three places in the playoffs available and four don’t go into three. Over in the East there was a similar looking scrap for playoff places shaping up but three straight losses for the Chicago Bulls and a few good results for the Indiana Pacers and Detroit Pistons has opened up some daylight. The Washington Wizards are also still poised for a late run but while 2.5 games back doesn’t seem like a lot, with nine games left it really is. Especially when your next game is away to Golden State. That’s a huge blow to John Wall and company. On ability they should be playing for a top four seed and here they are in tenth. That ain’t good at all. As for the Bulls, well we may be watching a team in transition there. They were hit hard by injuries to Jimmy Butler and Joakim Noah and with a rookie head coach and the question of Derrick Rose still hovering, they could be in line for major changes this coming offseason.

But here’s the thing: in the East it is Cleveland and then everyone else. The Atlanta Hawks, the Boston Celtics, the Toronto Raptors, the Miami Heat… all quality teams but all teams that the Pacers and Pistons will have plans to play against. The Raptors are especially underrated by a lot of people but you can guarantee that Paul George and his lads will still back themselves. Take a look at the West, however, and that ain’t the case.

In the Warriors and Spurs we’re looking at two of the finest regular season teams we’ve ever seen. Even the Thunder are good enough to have been playing for the one-seed in years gone by, while the Clippers are hardly gonna get worse when Blake Griffin returns. With a single game currently separating the Jazz, Rockets and Mavericks and the Blazers only 1.5 games ahead of that, pretty much every result has seen a shifting in the seedings. The four of them are all in unique situations and all getting desperate in the late season surge but… it’s a poisoned chalice.

Which of those four is beating the Warriors? Which is beating the Spurs? Which, even, is beating the Thunder? Chances are the three that make the playoffs are going to get thoroughly pasted on (inter)national television. Like, twenty point losses for the side that stumbles into the eighth seed. It will be humiliating, make no mistake about it. Pants down in front of everyone. Standing naked on the stage while they all point and laugh. It almost makes you wonder if the team that slips into ninth might be the secret winner of the whole debacle.

Funny story, of the seven teams that have beaten the Golden State Warriors so far this season, two of them are the Dallas Mavericks and Portland Trailblazers. To be fair, each also has multiple losses of 15+ points to GSW as well. The Warriors aren’t resting starters in the playoffs. Dame Lillard can’t drop 51 in four straight games (although try telling him that).

But if you aren’t playing to win then why are you playing at all? The playoffs have to be the goal, especially once you find yourself in range. Nobody’s getting that franchise changing player in the last spot of the lottery. Or at least the chances aren’t any different from that dude slipping down to 18 or whatever. That’s what this is all about right now. There are four teams playing for the privilege of being crushed into a tiny paper ball and flipped into a garbage can from thirty feet by Steph Curry and it’s going to suck for them and their fans as that goes down but by some measure of athletic dignity that’s a prize that they need to strive for. Maybe Steph Curry will snap his ankle. Hey, until the fat lady sings, ya know? It’s better to live in false hope than it is to wallow in futility.

Portland Trailblazers

Lost four of five starters in free agency and were supposed to be rubbish as a result. Instead Damian Lillard is playing wonderfully, C.J. McCollum is right in the conversation for most improved player and the Blazers are 27-15 since the turn of the year. Six of their last eight games are at home and they still have a chance of catching the Grizzlies for fifth – meaning a matchup with the Clippers which is way better than any alternative. While everyone else was courting the A-List free agents, the Blazers pried Al-Farouq Aminu early on and he’s been superb this season. Losing Meyers Leonard for the season is a blow but this is a team built upon the next-man-up mentality. Of the 370 starts dished out by coach Terry Stotts this season, a grand total of 2 of them have been given to players older than the age of 25. Both were Chris Kaman.

Utah Jazz

The unlikeliest of the quartet and possibly the best of them. The fate of the Utah Jazz switched early last season when Enes Kanter was dropped from the starting five for Rudy Gobert and suddenly the Jazz became one of the league’s best defensive teams. They still are, and Kanter plays for the Thunder now. Gobert is a monster centre and Gordon Hayward might be the most underrated player in the NBA the way he’s playing. Dante Exum’s pre-season injury has meant a little shuffling at point guard but PF Derrick Favors has been wonderful. They’re a team that likes to play slow and steady, which could be a frustration for those top seeds.

Houston Rockets

Began disastrously but slowly got back into the groove as James Harden got back to peak fitness. Sacked coach Kevin McHale for J.B. Bickerstaff sort of unreasonably but Bicks has been pretty good for them all the same – at least the players seem to like him. As has the irrepressible Harden, but he can’t do it all himself and he can’t really do any of it on defence, hence the team is leaking 106 points per game – fifth worst in the NBA. That they’re even still in the convo is surprising based on that number. Dwight Howard’s offerings are being slept on but the Ty Lawson thing could not have been a bigger bust. Their last four games (possibly five depending on Dallas) are all against teams outside the playoffs so there’s a late sprint there in the offering.

Dallas Mavericks

Chandler Parsons was playing injured for most of the season, briefly started playing the best basketball of his career and then promptly was ruled out for the season. Somehow 37 year old Dirk Nowitzki is still incredible and coach Rick Carlisle is as good as it gets. But even they can’t quite carry a team that was left scrambling for players after the DeAndre Jordan thing. In the long run, there’s an argument that not getting DAJ might be good for the team, he might not have been a great fit but for this season at least it’s been a disaster. Zaza Pachulia has reverted to the mean and they’re currently starting 29 year old Tunisian rookie Salah Mejri instead. Wes Matthews is coming back from an Achilles tear and hasn’t been near his best. They’re barely hanging in there, but since they don’t have a draft pick there’s nothing else to play for.