The Wildcard’s NFL Predictions - Week 11
Last Week: 7-7
Season: 85-60-2
New Orleans Saints (4-5) at Carolina Panthers (3-6)
Nah sorry. If you’re starting from 1-5 then your margins for error are super minimal to begin with so when you go and blow a 17 point lead to lose at home then you can kiss the playoffs goodbye. They can still get to 10-6 but, like, will that even be enough? The Falcons are 6-4 at the mo, leading the division and you’ve gotta pick that there’ll be an NFC East team that gets to that mark or better without winning it. The Cowboys already have 8 wins. The Giants, R**skins and Eagles all have winning records. So say they only take one wildcard spot, then the Panthers not only have to overhaul a couple division rivals but they also have to outsprint the Vikings and Packers, as things stand (I’m relatively high on the Lions winning that division now). Oh and the Cardinals too. Lots of traffic there.
And you can’t go excusing Cam Newton anymore either. Those two sacks he copped to lose field goal position in the third quarter and then that bloody stupid interception in the fourth. Mate. Terrible. Of course it does help if you have a running game when trying to kill a game and Jonathan Stewart’s 39 total yards sure didn’t do that. But on the whole, way too many mistakes. Kelvin Benjamin fumbled before the winning field goal too. These are their best offensive players letting them down.
When these two played a month ago, the Saints snuck it 41-38. The Panthers scored 21 points in the fourth quarter but the Saints struck a late field goal and that was that. At this stage both are desperate for a win, neither of them are making the playoffs but it’s easier to play when there’s still an outside chance. The Saints will get their yards through the air, that’s not in doubt. This Panthers secondary haven’t been the same without Josh Norman, as has been well publicised, and Drew Brees tosses three hundy every week it seems. I’ll put it this way, if it’s another shootout then that leans towards the Saints. Playing on Thursday night, there tends to be a few high scorers too. Ooh, I think I’m going in strong with the first off underdog here, folks.
Hey and how about the way the Saints went and lost last week? Yeeeow, that’ll sting.
Wildcard’s Pick: Saints by 3
Arizona Cardinals (4-4-1) at Minnesota Vikings (5-4)
Ah we have another casualty at the Vikes. Gone is kicker Blair Walsh, who you may know from his 10/10 rookie season in 2012 kicking from 50+ yards or perhaps you remember him more for the four PATs he’s missed this season. Nah, who am I kidding, you all know him for this howler:
Yeah, one of the worst ones in memory. He’s pretty much this generation’s Ray Finkle now. LACES OUT, LACES OUT, LACES OUT!!! Has anyone seen Dan Marino? Somebody keep an eye out just in case.
Kai Forbath is his replacement, apparently.
ESPN: ‘When asked a week ago why the team decided to try other options, Zimmer said, "You haven't been watching all year?"’
I’ve a sneaky feeling that not being able to win that game against Seattle is gonna be crucial for them, had they won that then they’d be 5-4 and a game behind the Seahawks, instead they’re dead even while the Hawks sit at 6-2-1, beating the bloody Patriots while they’re at it. The Cardinals are still well in the race though, even if it does end up being the wildcard race. I still like them, since coming back from injury Carson Palmer has been a little safer, though he threw a couple dumb picks against the 49ers last week. It looked like the Cards got complacent against a bad team.
As it happens, the Vikings deal in turnovers. However they’re also plain awful at the moment on the other side of the ball. It’s officially a crisis now for Minny and I’m really not sure how they do this. Get Bradford throwing deeper… but to who? Steffon Diggs is carrying the weight all by himself out wide. Also, 69.6% completion for Sammy B is great but maybe not as great as it sounds when you’ve only thrown 283 times. 23rd in the league, although he did miss one game. That’s what happens when you don’t sustain drives. He’s also 23rd in passing yards. They really don’t have a choice but to get Adrian Peterson back amongst the starters the second he’s fit.
NFL Career Leaders for Receptions:
- Jerry Rice – 1549
- Tony Gonzalez – 1325
- Marvin Harrison – 1102
- Cris Carter – 1101
- Tim Brown – 1094
- Larry Fitzgerald – 1086
- Terrell Owens – 1078
- Reggie Wayne – 1070
- Jason Witten – 1064
- Andre Johnson – 1062
Wildcard’s Pick: Cardinals by 3
Buffalo Bills (4-5) at Cincinnati Bengals (3-5-1)
Here’s to the 2016 Bills and Bengals.
Wildcard’s Pick: Bills by 3
Chicago Bears (2-7) at New York Giants (6-3)
Jay Cutler in 2016:
- @ Houston (L 14-23): 16/29 | 216 YDS | 1 TD | 1 INT | 76.2 RATE
- vs Philadelphia (L 14-29): 12/17 | 157 YDS | 0 TD | 1 INT | 74.9 RATE
- vs Minnesota (W 20-10): 21/31 | 252 YDS | 1 TD | 1 INT | 100.5 RATE
- @ Tampa Bay (L 10-36): 16/30 | 182 YDS | 1 TD | 2 INT | 55.1 RATE
He’s also been sacked 13 times in those four starts. I’m usually pretty sympathetic to Mr Cutbags but honestly it looks like his time is up in Chicago, Brian Hoyer has been pure and simply better than him and a good one against the Vikings was thoroughly destroyed by a terrible performance against the Buccs last week. He really was bad.
Meanwhile the New York Giants are shaping up for a good old push at this thing. Obviously far from a complete team, the Giants started really well, beating the Cowboys and Saints (still the only team to beat Dallas this season) but then they suffered three straight losses and a lot of people forgot about them. Since then, wins over the Ravens, Rams, Eagles and Bengals have set them up plenty and with the Bears and Browns to follow – possibly the easiest possible double header in the 2016 NFL – they should soon be 8-3. It gets tougher from there but they’ve already beaten Dallas and Philly so they’ll be confident of at least 10 wins in there. This season, that might be enough.
They’re not quite the Giants of old and yet in other ways they’re the most Giants team in years. They don’t score a lot of points, not hitting the 30 point barrier once this season, but then Eli Manning still has that knack for coming through in the clutch. And it’s Steve Spagnuolo’s defence that’s leading the way. Tricky bastards.
Wildcard’s Pick: Giants by 13
Pittsburgh Steelers (4-5) at Cleveland Browns (0-10)
Wow, what a game that Steelers vs Cowboys one was. From the big plays from the big players, Ezekiel Elliott and Le’Veon Bell both going big, to Big Ben’s fake spike touchdown pass and Dez Bryant and Antonio Brown each getting a few highlights too. Oh and Dak Prescott. Oh and a whole bunch of lead changes – three of them within the two-minute warning. Great game, exactly what the NFL was begging for after their moanings at the ratings.
Slightly related note, there was a theory in Mike Freeman’s Bleacher Report column from an insider he spoke to about how a Trump Presidency is gonna work out nicely for the NFL. And no it’s nothing to do with tax cuts or immigration crackdowns or the general resurgence in patriarchal oppression that it all represents. Although… it is kind of about the last one.
Unnamed Team Executive: “Under President [Barack] Obama, the country was intellectual and looked at facts. I think that's why our ratings fell. People read a lot about our scandals or CTE and didn't like what they saw. Under Trump, the country will care less about truth or facts. It'll be [more raw] and brutal. Football will be more of an outlet. We'll go back to liking our violent sports.”
Okay then, blame the smart people. Blame the people who don’t blindly follow. That phrase “the country will care less about truth or facts” is a scary one ain’t it? Feck off, America. Leave us your sports but please evacuate the building by the nearest exit. The worst part is that I sorta agree with this dude, and I don’t think when he says this that he says it as an advocate either. Just calling it as he sees it.
Speaking of, here’s where I do the same. This is a crucial little time for the Steelers who now fall to a losing record. Best they can get is 11 wins. That’ll put them in the playoffs, surely, but will 9 wins do it? 8-8 even? Nothing less than that’ll be safe. There are teams out there for whom missing the playoffs isn’t a disaster and the Steelers… they’re not one of them. Pittsburgh has this legendarily talented offence and anything less than a playoff appearance would be a travesty. With three teams nursing seven wins already in the AFC West and the Dolphins and Bills each showing a few glimpses, that likely means that the Steelers need to win the AFC West. They should do exactly that, the Ravens and Bengals aren’t all that flash themselves.
Yet the Steelers have now dropped four in a row. Roethlisberger’s injury was part of that, sure. As were tough games away to the Cowboys and Patriots. Whatever, that’s all done. Now we need to see Roethlisberger and Bell and Brown all doing the business for a sustained period of time and resulting in peeling off a bunch of wins in a row. Away to the Browns, away to the Colts, home to the Giants and away to the Bills are their next four, before they close the season with games against each of their AFC North rivals. I don’t see why they can’t win all four.
Wildcard’s Pick: Steelers by… hmm, 30?
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4-5) at Kansas City Chiefs (7-2)
AFC Defensive Player of the Week: Eric Berry, KCC Safety.
Yup, that’d be why. Berry is such a good player, one of the absolute best on a 7-2 Chiefs team. Look at that brilliant run back, the twists and turns. Stunning play. And, ah, here’s the thing about Eric Berry… HE HAD CANCER 24 MONTHS AGO. What an unbelievably inspirational story, he had Hodgkins-Lymphoma diagnosed in December 2014 and returned to make the Pro-Bowl in 2015 and he’s not let up at all.
Shout out to Jameis Winston too. Not because of any heroic life story in this case, more about him playing one of his better ones against the Bears last week. Now, the phrase ‘against the Bears’ is a bit of a diluting one though JW’s 312 yards and 2 TD/1 INT effort still looked sharp. That’s consecutive games with a 100+ QB Rating now, something he’d only done once before in his career. That win keeps the Buccs in outside contention for those playoffs too, but with a really difficult schedule to come it’s unlikely they cling to that one – instead that makes the back half of this season all about how Jameis emerges. I’m optimistic for the lad, though if he’s gonna bugger this up then it’ll be across these next two weeks: at Kansas City and home to Seattle. No repeats of that four-picker against the Cardinals, alright bro?
Wildcard’s Pick: Chiefs by 10
Baltimore Ravens (5-4) at Dallas Cowboys (8-1)
God, I love Tony Romo.
Glazer is right, who else have you ever heard dropping pearls of wistful wisdom like Antonio?
“Seasons are fleeting. Games become more precious. Chances for success diminish.”
It’s like he’s written his speech after binging on haiku books, gotta love an NFL renaissance man – they need a few more of those now that Arian Foster is retired. I had this thought trying to balance the Romo thing the other day, I still think there’s a very good chance that he performs better in this offence but I can understand the hesitancy to go all in on him, have him get injured, and then have to go back to the confused rookie again.
“We all know something magical is happening to our team. I'm not going to allow this situation to negatively affect Dak or this football team by becoming a constant distraction. I think Dak knows that I have his back. And I think I know that he has mine. Ultimately, it's about the team. It's what we've preached our entire lives.”
The thought was this: what’s wrong with Romo just being a backup? Most QBs in his situation go about trying to find a starter’s role somewhere else but Romo is a Cowboys lifer, he’s injury prone and he’s also a brilliant teammate. He’s signed for three more seasons with pretty substantial cap hits so there’d be some juggling to do there (especially with offensive linemen coming up for new deals), but why not just stay around as a backup? He’ll probably get a Super Bowl ring if he does… nah, no jinx. Forget I ever wrote that.
Surprisingly the Ravens are still top of the AFC North. They’re better than the Browns, clearly, but for the Steelers and Bengals both to be slumping is a shocker. That might not last much longer though, not sure that a team which doesn’t score a huge amount of points will stick with the Cowboys. Who… if they win this they set the franchise record for consecutive wins.
Wildcard’s Pick: Cowboys by 7
Jacksonville Jaguars (2-7) at Detroit Lions (5-4)
Sometimes it’s a good week to have a bye. Last week was a good week for the Lions to have a bye. Without playing at all they had the blessings of watching the Vikings, Packers and Bears (for what that last one’s worth) all lose, meaning that Detroit moves up into first place in the NFC North. Count ‘em up, Motor City.
They should win it too, what with the cliffs that the Packers and Vikings have fallen off of. They definitely should win this game. The Jaguars haven’t forced a turnover since before their bye in week five and they’ve coughed up 12 in the five games since. That’s nothing short of atrocious, hell the Lions might even be able to win their first one all season without a fourth quarter comeback. Yeah, both of those facts are true. I know that America doesn’t really deal in facts anymore but, phwoar.
Wildcard’s Pick: Lions by 9
Tennessee Titans (5-5) at Indianapolis Colts (4-5)
Another 123 yards for DeMarco Murray last week, with a touchdown and a couple catches for 33 additional yards. All good stuff adding to a really strong season for the 2014 NFL Rush Leader. He’s got 930 yards with 8 TDs on the ground, only Ezekiel Elliott has more yardage than that (and he’s a legit freak who’s done that in one fewer game – although with more total attempts). Murray is almost 100 yards clear of Melvin Gordon in third for yardage. He’s also third in total yards from scrimmage. The guy isn’t gonna be MVP because Zeke the Freak is doing the same thing to a greater volume… but Zeke doesn’t have a TD pass to his name:
The Colts have won the last 10 games against the Titans and 15 of their last 16. Both of these teams are hugely slippery and there are fifty reasons to go back and forth on this pick. This doesn’t feel like a streak busting week though, it feels like a week where favourites are gonna do what favourites do so I’ll give the Colts the jump.
Marcus Mariota’s Movember effort. On a scale from Michael Jordan that time to Ron Swanson, I’d put him roughly at… Adam Morrison.
Wildcard’s Pick: Colts by 2
Miami Dolphins (5-4) at Los Angeles Rams (4-5)
Well now.
I seem to recall a time when the Dolphins were 1-4 and now they have the third longest active win streak behind the Cowboys (8 games) and Chiefs (5 games). Tied with the Giants, of course. Adam Gase, my bro. Getting it done all of a sudden! Cool man, I liked that appointment when they made it. He did good things with Jay Cutler as the Chi-Town offensive coordinator and this season is showing that such a task is very much harder than it might look. Cutler’s been baaaad.
And Ryan Tannehill’s been in a similar place, to where Miami must have had the conversation in-house plenty of times as to whether he’s the QB they can take the next step forward with. He made some genuine plays last week as they beat the Chargers. 70.8% completion with 240 yards, 2 TDs and 0 interceptions. QB rating of 130.6. Just when it looks like he’s on the out he goes and pulls himself back in there, aye?
The LA Rams are suddenly watchable if only to see Jared Goff play. Thing is, they’ve got a really strong defence that always keeps things close despite an utterly anaemic offence. Can Goff fix that? Mate, if I knew that then they’d be paying me a lot more than they are. Aaron Donald is a top player but the Rams’ MVP so far has been their punter John Hekker. That dude pumped one EIGHTY THREE YARDS last game. A big reason as to why the Rams have twice won games this season scoring single figures. In fact they’re 2-5 when they score more than 10 points, 2-0 when they score less.
Wildcard’s Pick: Dolphins by 6
New England Patriots (7-2) at San Francisco 49ers (1-8)
Here you go Tommy, exactly what you wanted. A nice sitter to bounce back from last week’s defeat. Look, mate, you shouldn’t have fumbled the ball on the goal-line. And the PI call on Gronk at the end? Good no-call. If anything it was Gronk initiated all the contact.
Colin Kaepernick is showing he’s got a future as a QB, playing better now than he ever did last season. Not good, but better. Except he’s playing the Patriots now and the Patriots don’t lose to one-win teams in week 11. I mean, without ever checking the stats I’d assume that’s never ever happened. If I were to list a bunch of reasons as to how the Niners might win this game, it’d read as thus:
…
…
…
There are none. They have no hope at all. Here’s an actual stat, the Patriots since the start of 2003 are 38-6 in games following a loss.
Haha, Tom Brady threw an interception. Which means that the player with the most passing yards without a pick now is Brian Hoyer. Actually, it already was, Brady only passed him last week but then he’s thrown twice as many TDs so there’s that. Hoyer has 6 TD Passes without a pick. Next up after him is… argh Jimmy Garoppolo, bloody hell. Four of them.
Wildcard’s Pick: Patriots by 17
Philadelphia Eagles (5-4) at Seattle Seahawks (6-2-1)
If the Eagles are gonna fail this season, it’ll have an enormous amount to do with losing all three divisional games so far. Outside of the NFC East they’ve been superb, thrashing the Steelers and beating the Vikings and Falcons too. This feels like a competitive game but the Seahawks are still undefeated at home this season while the Eagles are 1-4 on the road with that lone win coming against the Chicago Bears, who are fully useless. All three of those listed good wins for Philly? At home. All three of those divisional defeats? Away from home.
Russell Wilson in 2016: 66.8% COMP | 2,442 YDS | 10 TDs | 2 INTs | 99.4 RATE
There was a time when people didn’t think he could exist as a pocket passer. Turns out that’s exactly what he is, Wilson vs Brady last week was the battle of the two best quarterbacks in the NFL… and Wilson won. So there ya go.
Wildcard’s Pick: Seahawks by 6
Green Bay Packers (4-5) at Washington R**skins (5-3-1)
Yikes, that’s now three games dropped in a row for the Pack. The good news is that Clay Matthews is back in training now, even if only in a limited capacity. Look you can blame Aaron Rodgers if you want but he’s about the only playmaker they’ve got. Matthews last played in week seven in the win over Chicago – it’s since then that the losses have piled up. Also no Sam Shields. That’s a big factor too. And the lack of a running game. God, they might just not be good. Huh.
Like giving up 47 points to the Tennessee Titans, falling behind early once again. They made Marcus Mariota look like the man himself and even Mariota was saying all he did was dink and dunk. For 47 points? DeMarco Murray threw a touchdown pass against them. That’s awful.
Sounds like the Packers have snapped up Christine Michael on waivers though.
Okay so the Skins. This is a huge game for them, a team that could really use a statement win and here they have the potential to do exactly that against a team that’s way beneath their reputation. But… nah, not gonna pick ‘em.
Wildcard’s Pick: Packers by 6
Houston Texans (6-3) at Oakland Raiders (7-2)
Hola amigos! Vamonos a Mexico City por este uno. Es va a ser un juga bueno, los Raiders son en fuego pero los Texans tienen un calidad defensa. Mira hacia Derek Carr para hacer el diferenció, esta bloke es jugando bloody bien. Quiero mira mas. Magnifico. Mientras tanto Brock Osweiler? Olvidalo. Ahora sus propio fans son en contra el.
Yeah so this game is in Mexico City which is bound to be fun. I wonder if any players do like refugees and run away never to return to the US of A. Rather, the S of A. It’d be a nice life though. Andy Dufresne mixed with a little Cormac McCarthy, sipping tequila on the creaking deck, shielded from the heat by a dusty straw hat. Time passes slowly in that small Mexican town. Los caballos wander freely through the acres, the birds of prey hover distantly towards the mountains. The people in town are genuine and honest, the police play soccer in the streets with the local children and everyone has a smile. Every now and then you take to throwing and catching a football on your own but most of the time you don’t even think about the life you left behind.
Umm, where was I? Right, the Texans suck away from home and here they aren’t even in their own country. The Raiders are perfect on the road so far, and this one is technically a home game. So this is nothing to them.
Closing the column for the week, best chuck in some Lenny for the road.
Sorry, wrong Lenny. This is the one:
Wildcard’s Pick: Raiders by 10
BYE: Atlanta Falcons (6-4), Denver Broncos (7-3), New York Jets (3-7), San Diego Chargers (4-6)
The Wildcard is a staff writer for The Niche Cache. He would happily swap jobs with Tony Romo if that’ll make everyone happy.