The Wildcard’s NFL Predictions - Week 14
Last Week: 11-4
Season: 117-73-2
Oakland Raiders (10-2) at Kansas City Chiefs (9-3)
The Chiefs, turns out they’re a legit team then aye? All that teasing like they might just be riding the schedule to their benefit or whatever, beating the Colts and the Saints and the Jags and the Panthers and a couple others. But then BOOM they beat the Broncos and BOOM they beat the Falcons. Not by very much and not without more than a little luck but come on that’s what you’ve gotta do.
Travis Kelce, what a dude. He’s had three straight 100+ yard receiving games including 140 yards on eight catches against the Falcons last week. The Falcons pass defence ain’t the best but he had 101 against Denver the week before so no snickering. Kelce’s a champ. That guy gets it done.
Once upon a time this was an iconic rivalry. It’s been two decades since they were both good at the same time. Here’s Hall of Famer Bobby Bell, once a top linebacker for the Chiefs:
“You can go back to the year we won the Super Bowl [1969]. People don’t realize this, but the Raiders beat us twice that year. When they came to Kansas City they beat us and when we went out there they beat us. We had to go back to Oakland and play them a third time. It used to be like this every time we played them. Every year, we’d be fighting with them for who’s going to be the No. 1 team.”
The Chiefs won that third game and went on to beat the Vikings in the Super Bowl. Here, read the rest of all that on this ESPN piece. Good read.
This one’s gonna be freezing and it’s gonna be fun, the first thing falls in the Chiefs favour and the second in the Raiders favour. The Chiefs have already beaten Oakland once and with this they’ll all but book their playoff ticket.
Wildcard’s Pick: Chiefs by 3
Washington R**skins (6-5-1) at Philadelphia Eagles (5-7)
Whisper it now but the Eagles are 2-7 since their bye in week four. They’re really not very good – the second that Carson Wentz started throwing interceptions was the second the bubble burst, remember when people were talking about him in the same breath as Dak Prescott? To be fair after three weeks that was a very reasonable thing. Not so much any longer, shall we take a glance at the numbers?
Wentz thru week 3: 64.7% COMP | 769 YDS | 5 TD | 0 INT | 103.8 RATE
Prescott thru week 3: 66.7% COMP | 767 YDS | 1 TD | 0 INT | 93.3 RATE
Wentz ever since: 62.6% COMP | 2132 YDS | 7 TD | 11 INT | 73.2 RATE
Prescott ever since: 68.3% COMP | 2207 YDS | 18 TD | 2 INT | 114.5 RATE
Yeeowza. Those are three game and nine game splits, they played each other in week nine. BUT WAIT… this is a R**skins game not a Cowboys game so it’s time to talk about them. In the best spirit of the Washington Pro Football Team… here’s a clip of the celebrations at Standing Rock. Absolutely beautiful, power to the people man! Unless Donald Trump ruins it, of course. What’s the bet Dan Snyder voted for the Orange Man? Actually, come on, we all know every owner voted for him and most of the coaches too, probably.
Wildcard’s Pick: R**skins by 6
Houston Texans (6-6) at Indianapolis Colts (6-6)
What a bloody nutcase division this is. For a few years it’s more or less been the worst one in football, this season we’ve got these two tied at 6-6 with the Titans also joining the dead even party. 8-8 is gonna win this sucker, probably. There are quality teams in the AFC outside of divisional leads and as it stands the Dolphins, Bills and Steelers would all miss out to make room for an AFC South bugger. That’s footy though, everyone knew the story coming in.
The Texans have lost three in a row now. They had this thing under control and losing to the Raiders, Chargers and Packers (all decent teams) now has them in that three-way tie where once they had clear air in their wake. Sucks bro, maybe find a quarterback and a coach and see if things change. Funny that, coz a quarterback is about the only thing that the Colts have but they’re equal – someone merge the buggers and it’ll be problem solved. Otherwise I kinda think the Titans are better than each and right now I’d have Tennessee to get that playoff spot. Probably depends how they go against Indy in week 17.
Both sides are using the words: “must win” and “biggest game of the season”. They’re not wrong either, this is huge. Last time they played back in October the Colts were up 23-9 with a shade over seven minutes remaining in the fourth quarter when they somehow conspired to lost in OT, dropping to 2-4 which they’ve done pretty well to recover from. An improvement on defence and some general Andrew Luck have been the reasons for that, though if they drop this one they probably won’t have time to haul themselves back up a second time.
It’s probably best not to overestimate a win over the Jets but the Colts cannot have done more in wrapping that thing up by half-time. Luck had 4 TDs without a pick and now Indy are 3-0 in his last three starts. Osweiler’s finest moments of a terrible season came in that Colts game back in week six. Ahh but when it comes down to desperation I like the quarterback who can throw the ball in a straight line and make plays for more than one quarter a year.
Wildcard’s Pick: Colts by 4
Cincinnati Bengals (4-7-1) at Cleveland Browns (0-12)
Don’t really need to apply anything to a Browns game. As hugely disappointing as the Bengals’ season has been, losing to Cleveland would make every defeat feel like a playoff win… although they wouldn’t know what that feels like either. Hehe. No worries, they beat the Giants in a decent effort last time and should completely annihilate the Worst Team in the NFL this one.
One thing, now that I see it: Robert Griffin III is expected to start for the Browns. That’s all I have to say about that.
Wildcard’s Pick: Bengals by heaps
Denver Broncos (8-4) at Tennessee Titans (6-6)
Marcus Mariota continues to play decent footy, he’s not only throwing the little ones but he’s freeing up the downfield stuff a shade as well while looking to play out of the pocket more often too. Never gonna be Russell Wilson but I like what I see. He’s the future in Tennessee.
However this game will be decided in a different area. Mariota won’t be the difference, same as Paxton Lynch won’t be the difference either (or Trevor Siemian if he’s fit). The difference will be this contest right here:
DeMarco Murray:
1043 RUSH YDS (2nd in NFL) | 8 TDs (7th) | 4.6 Y/A (7th) |86.9 Y/G (3rd)
Denver Rush Defence:
1474 RUSH YDS (28th in NFL) | 11 TDs (21st) | 4.2 Y/A (20th) | 122.8 Y/G (28th)
Good as Von Miller has been and the guy’s been so good they’re talking about possible MVP votes for him as a linebacker… the Denver defence clearly does its best work against the pass, from Miller’s rush to Aqib Talib at the back and all that. Opposition QBs are completing at 55.3% against Denver, which is the best mark in the NFL by a distance and they’re one of only two defences, the other being the Cardinals one, that have more interceptions than touchdown passes against.
That’s not great for Mariota, however he’s not the bulk of their offence, DeMarco Murray is. This is a game where it could be unexpectedly suited to him and he’ll need to reel off 100+ yards on the ground for them to get it done. Seriously, the Titans are good enough to beat the defending champs. Cliché alert: it’s all a matter of whether they believe it’s possible. Say cheeeeeese.
Wildcard’s Pick: Titans by 3
Arizona Cardinals (5-6-1) at Miami Dolphins (7-5)
Last chance for the Cardinals to save this thing, might be the last chance for the Dolphins too who still have to play the Bills and Patriots again as well and anything less than 10 wins gives them next to no hope of getting to the playoffs. I didn’t see much of their game last week and I’d picked them to win against the Ravens so to fall to defeat by 32 points? That was something different, all right.
The Dolphins couldn’t cover over the top. They’ve got size on defence but their linebackers looked like piss against the pass, allowing Joe Flacco to drag them around and pick his passes for 32 completions on the day. Not sure if that means they’ll be happy to see Carson Palmer or not. I guess everyone’s happy to see Carson Palmer this season.
It ain‘t only that the Dolphins lost, the manner of the loss and Ryan Tannehill undoing so much of his fine form… that’s the kinda stuff that can derail a season. Definite momentum killers, that’s for sure. The Cards won last week. They beat the WPFT and Palmer hit on a few deepies too, well then. This might even be a dead level contest but in those cases it’s the team on the up that gets the better of it, usually.
Look for the running back duel between David Johnson and Jay Ajayi to captivate. Ajayi has a couple 200+ rushing games in this his breakout season while Johnson is on the fringes of the MVP chat, with more yards from scrimmage than any other player in the league – he caught a ran for 14 yards last week to convert on fourth down.
Should be good.
Wildcard’s Pick: Cardinals by 3
Chicago Bears (3-9) at Detroit Lions (8-4)
Hey look, I ran the rest of the season through the ESPN predictor thing and this is what I came up with:
Good news for the Lions if this all comes true, same for the Chiefs although they’d get wasted by the Steelers on the road in the playoffs. No surprises at all with the four bye teams who are comfortably the four best so far (though how the inexperience of the Cowboys and Raiders go in the postseason is a real question). Also see the Giants squeeze in there while the Vikings fall out, same with the Ravens and Dolphins missing out for the quality in the AFC West.
Shout out to the feisty, vengeful social media team at Lions HQ. Can’t cop one without making a song and dance, though as somebody who picked the Lions to win I will admit I sat back and laughed at this.
Detroit needs this one, with the Giants, Cowboys and Packers to follow. Should do it easy, but they’ll need a win in the final three to get back into the playoffs. I’m leaning towards that happening in the final one, though it ain’t impossible they could beat any of that trio.
Wildcard’s Pick: Lions by 10
Pittsburgh Steelers (7-5) at Buffalo Bills (6-6)
Le’Veon Bell vs LeSean McCoy should be outstanding (supposing both injury prone lads are feeling all goods), that’s 817 rush yards at 4.5 per attempt versus 949 at 5.5 per attempt, three TDs against nine – Bell’s numbers are a little weaker with a worse offensive line and coming off that knee injury and all. That’ll be a beauty, two top five running backs by plenty of measures (add in Ezekiel Elliott, DeMarco Murray and David Johnson to fill out the numbers).
Roethlisberger versus Taylor maybe not so much, just being honest here.
Here’s Le’Veon Bell talking about his O-Line: “I'm glad I got my guys. I call them my goons up front. They are down to ride with me whenever.”
Across their last three games the Steelers have been much better on defence, granted there’s a game against the Browns in there. But they made the Giants look sloppy and took down the dangerous Colts too (not so dangerous without Mr Luck but so it goes). Just 30 points conceded in three games after leaking 35 to the Cowboys the week before. They were great against Dallas, problem was like everybody else they had to answer to the Dallas run game (or 4Q Dak) but against most teams a showing like that would be an easy W. So fair play to them for cashing in since. Pittsburgh has a huge came at home to the Ravens on Christmas Day which will determine their fate – but only if they cash in on this two game road trip vs Buffalo and Cincinnati.
The Bills are more than decent but I’ve got them missing the playoffs and that’s not a huge shock, really. They’re good but not good enough, apart from the win over the Patriots (with Jacoby Brissett starting at QB) their wins have come against the Cardinals, Rams, 49ers, Bengals and Jaguars. That’s a combined 16 wins between five teams.
Wildcard’s Pick: Steelers by 8
San Diego Chargers (5-7) at Carolina Panthers (4-8)
Okay then, Cam Newton does something silly and gets punished with a benching for the first offensive possession of the game last week. A wardrobe issue was the problem, they said. A wardrobe issue? From Cam Newton? How could a man who wears shoes like this possibly have broken any kind of dress protocol…?
Oh now that I think about it, I guess it’s not so hard to imagine. Haha but when Derek Anderson has one play and he throws an interception maybe it’s better just to let silly tie rules slide. That’s what it was, he didn’t wear a tie and he knew he was gonna be in trouble for not wearing a tie but when offered spare ties to wear and presumably spare himself the punishment he declined because it wouldn’t match his outfit.
Cam Newton: “There were a lot of ties I was given, but I can’t wear a tie with this. We discussed it internally, me and coach, we got on the same page. I feel as if I wore a similar outfit like this before and nothing was done. But he has rules in place and we have to abide by them. No person is greater than the next person and it is what it is.”
Tell you one thing, you won’t catch Philip Rivers stepping over his fashion boundaries. Great quarterback but he’s as square as they come.
Wildcard’s Pick: Panthers by 6
Minnesota Vikings (6-6) at Jacksonville Jaguars (2-10)
Obviously the Browns make up the cellar of the NFL (and the two teams in the next game are down there with them) but don’t sleep on the Jags having lost 7 in a row now and while the Vikes haven’t been doing too damn well lately, they showed enough against Dallas that if they play like that they’ll ease on to a W here. The extended break helps too, they really desperately need the victory.
Adrian Peterson: “I'm thinking that we're going to make the playoffs, so that's what I'm keeping my mindset on. So, if that's not the case a week or two from now, we can settle back around.”
Rightio, so All Day Son will be back soon if they’re in the playoff picture, if they ain’t then no point. Fair enough but after starting 5-0, the fact that he’s even considering the chance of them missing the playoffs shows you what’s been up.
I thought Sam Bradford looked much better the last few weeks but he still only threw one touchdown, his team scoring 28 points in two defeats by a combined margin of five points. 63 completed passes against Dallas and Detroit… at 5.74 yards per attempts. I mean, good thing he's completing three of every four passes when that’s all he’s getting. Holy crap dude, throw the thing downfield for once. The one time he’s played the Jaguars before he threw three TDs although that was back in 2013.
Other things that have contributed to one of the league’s premier defences being half of a very average team include just a single 100 yard rushing game all season (Ezekiel Elliott has five all on his lonesome, plus four in the 90s), having a turnover in each of the last four games after only coughing it up once in the first five and I’ve gotta imagine some of the coaching things haven’t helped either. Shout out to Mike Zimmer, hear he’s feeling better after emergency eye surgery meant he listened to the Dallas game on the radio in bed.
Wildcard’s Pick: Vikings by 9
New York Jets (3-9) at San Francisco 49ers (1-11)
About sums it up for the Jets, right? Poor bastards haven’t had a decent quarterback since Joe Namath while the 49ers have at least a half decent one but they don’t wanna play him because he’s a bit of a distraction and he’s making mistakes. Meh, who cares.
Did you catch the first quarter of the Niners-Bears game last week? Not a single pass completed, no kidding either. It’s been 28 years since neither team completed a first quarter pass in a game.
Wildcard’s Pick: Jets by 6
Atlanta Falcons (7-5) at Los Angeles Rams (4-8)
Jeff Fisher fumbling in his pockets for a lost challenge flag is the most fitting metaphor for the Rams season so far:
And yet inexplicably he’s been given a two year contract extension. Why? What? How? Who? When? Are they drunk or what’s going on? Defeat to the Pats last week makes it six straight seasons without a winning record. Apparently the extension’s been in the works since preseason which makes you wonder why it’s taken so damn long although this is a team that started Case Keenum for half the season ahead of the number one pick. I’ve said this before, I’ve got no issue with holding the rookie back, the issue is that they had nobody better than him. Goddamn, what a mess.
Oh, cheers Scheff. So the Rams sign their coach to an extension but they still might sack him. They never should have moved the team to LA, the Hollywood lifestyle is clearly messing with them.
The Falcons are facing a sprint to the finish with the Buccs and how they’re playing, not to mention dropping a close one to the Chiefs last week. Good thing they go good with that passing game then, should bag them a handy win and keep the Buccs at arm’s length with the tiebreaker for another week.
Wildcard’s Pick: Falcons by 10
New Orleans Saints (5-7) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (7-5)
Wildcard’s Pick: Buccaneers by 7
Seattle Seahawks (8-3-1) at Green Bay Packers (6-6)
It’s hard to underestimate the loss of Earl Thomas for this Seahawks team. He’s the best player on their superb defence. He’s the leader by name and action. Now he’s out for the season, placed on injured reserve and even talking about retiring now.
Keep in mind what a difference it make with and without Kam Chancellor at the start of the season and consider what might happen now. More than ever they need Russell Wilson at his MVP quality best. Wilson’s never won an MVP award but he’s worth one in the next few seasons. If he’d tossed a few more than 12 touchdowns to go with his 65% completion and 3142 passing yards then he might even be in the running for 2016 – hey there’s still time, the Packers are known to leak a few here and there.
This is the fixture that gave us the Fail Mary, that gave us Green Bay’s embarrassing meltdown in the playoffs a couple years ago where the Packers blew a 19-7 lead with less than three minutes to play. Mate, this week is absolutely stacked. I’m almost expecting to get slammed with the picks.
Wildcard’s Pick: Seahawks by 3
Dallas Cowboys (11-1) at New York Giants (8-4)
Cowboys win and they clinch the division. They’re already booked for the playoffs but home field advantage really matters (even if Dallas are unbeaten on the road). As for the Giants they win this and they’ve swept the Cowboys after beating them in week one – it’d keep their chances alive and give their season a massive kick in the arse after stumbling against the Steelers. They’d won six straight before then, but like the Bills there weren’t too many sexy wins in there. There was the win over Baltimore, legit win, then five in a row against… wait for it… the Rams, Eagles, Bengals, Bears and Browns. After this they have the Lions. Yeah, this is a very important game.
It sounds like Odell wasn’t too happy with the refs last week…
Odell Beckham Jr: “Like I said, everybody knows what is going on on the field. Everybody can see it. Stevie Wonder can see it. It is what it is. You can't do anything about it. There is no point.”
Ezekiel Elliott has 871 more rushing yards than Rashad Jennings, the leading rushers on each of these teams. 871 yards is enough for tenth in the league in terms of yardage. That’s more than Le’Veon Bell has, more than Matt Forte or Jordan Howard or Devonta Freeman. Jennings is averaging 3.4 yards per rush. The rushing duels have been a bit of a theme this week, this one is as one-sided as they come. The Cowboys are much better these days than they were in the first few weeks when they were still feeling this new offence back. There were questions over Dez Bryant’s health back then and Dak Prescott’s place in the team. They had suspensions on defence. And the Giants only won that game by one point with Terrance Williams not stepping out of bounds on the last play which woulda given them a chance at a very long field goal.
Kinda weird that the top three teams in the NFL, the three with double figure wins already (Cowboys, Raiders, Patriots) are 17-0 on the road, their five combined losses all coming in home games.
Wildcard’s Pick: Cowboys by 7
Baltimore Ravens (7-5) at New England Patriots (10-2)
Congrats to you then Tommy, yet another damn record.
Here’s a thing stumbled upon from the NFL website:
“Joe Flacco isn't your typical star quarterback. Remember, this is the dude that once celebrated a $120 million contract with a trip to the McDonald's drive-thru.
Here's another example: For an extended stretch following his first and second seasons in the NFL, Flacco lived in his parents' suburban New Jersey home, sharing a bedroom with his younger brother. This led to the rather surreal scenario of Flacco -- an extremely famous professional quarterback -- sleeping in a room that had pictures of Tom Brady hanging from the wall.”
First thing’s first, there’s an unacknowledged point in that first sentence where they appear to finish it short without the second clause which goes: “… because he isn’t a star quarterback at all.” Like, at what point do you draw the line between star and no? If it’s a Super Bowl ring then sure, though keep in mind that he beat Colin Kaepernick that day. If it’s any other mark of a QB then Flacco is well outta the top ten, even after a fine one last week.
Okay now, Rob Gronkowski is done for the season. Does that weaken the Patriots’ chances of winning? Hell yeah. But it doesn’t completely hurt them. They played well without him in the first couple weeks and Belichick knows how to crease and fold this offence in all the right ways. Probably a good thing for LeGarrette Blount fantasy owners coming into the playoffs (although not this week, the Ravens have the best rush defence in the league). Losing Gronk, the Patriots are still the best team in the AFC… but they’re no longer untouchable at their best. Sucks for Gronk, sucks for Brady and it sucks for Bill Simmons but it’s a good thing for everyone else. As far as competition goes, anyway. Never gonna wish harm on a pro of course.
Almost for got to play us out. Here's one from the devious sexual potency that was The Cramps. Lux and Ivy, rocking and rolling as we were all intended:
Wildcard’s Pick: Ravens by 3… whoa!
The Wildcard is a staff writer for The Niche Cache. Even Stevie Wonder can see that.