The Wildcard’s NFL Predictions - Week 4
Last Week: 9-7
Season: 26-22
Miami Dolphins (1-2) at Cincinnati Bengals (1-2)
Hmm okay the pressure is definitely on now. I know the picks aren’t really the main focus of this column, I sorta just use them as throwaways/punchlines sometimes, but there’s no excuse for the trash being served up so far. Mate, I’m barely a shade over 50% - I feel like the Rams, headed for yet another 7-9 season.
The problem is that I’m 0-3 on TNF games and starting things off on a negative every week, although to be fair last week was a ruthless week to pick, what with the Steelers, Cardinals, Bengals and Panthers all losing – not to mention a win for the LA bloody Rams. Just quietly, none of the jokers on the CBS Sports prediction panel did better than 8-8 and they’re paid specialists.
Anyway so to get this one off to a flying start, gotta think that the Bengals are too good to be starting 1-3. These are two similar teams though. Each top ten in passing offence, each bottom ten in rushing offence. The Bengals D is a shade better than the Dolphins but each should be performing better than it has been – the one excuse being a tough schedule for each of them.
What could swing this one is the return of Vontaze Burfict and Tyler Eifert, both hugely influential players for the Bengals. Burfict is coming off a suspension for nearly decapitating Antonio Brown in last year’s playoffs while Eifert is back to questionable after offseason surgery. This early game might be a shade too soon for them but should they get that pair back at 2-2 then they’re still well placed.
Jarvis Landry vs A.J. Green should be fun.
Wildcard’s Pick: Bengals by 4
Indianapolis Colts (1-2) at Jacksonville Jaguars (0-3)
Don’t you think Blake Bortles kinda sorta looks like John C. Reilly?
Well, I do anyway – yes that explains the header image. And Walk Hard is a supremely underrated comedy as well. So expect to see copious WH references in this column from now on. Definitely gonna watch that one again now.
“Dewey Cox needs to think about his entire life before he plays!”
Maybe Bort oughta take that approach too. Maybe the Colts oughta try winning a game with a hint of comfort. Well, this game’s in London so small chance of that. The Jaguars have played Wembley three times already – which is as many times as Queen played the great stadium (only counting when Freddie was fronting, of course) – while the Colts have never been to London.
Both these teams are committing way too many turnovers but the Colts seem to at least be able to still score some points despite that. Big shame for the Jags, they looked like they might make some real steps forward this season but they can’t get out of their own way. Being in a strange country and given the shared tendency for self-destruction, this could go either way but my general rule is to side with the better QB in that case.
One more thing: Robin Thicke is playing the pre-game show. You may know him best as the singer of that rape song he did but you’ll never hear that tune in the same light again once you’ve been witness to his first stint with fame as a long-haired dancing bike messenger. Hoooly crap.
For some reason that vid doesn’t seem to be available on youtube…
Wildcard’s Pick: Colts by 7
Buffalo Bills (1-2) at New England Patriots (3-0)
So… now what? The Patriots can start a third string rookie against a very decent Texans defence and they still win? Are we past the point of ever being able to doubt Bill Belichick again? Dammit, I’m sick of these buggers always winning.
To be fair, the offensive side of the ball went about as expected – Jacoby Brissett completed at 57.9% for 103 yards, which is standard garden variety compost for most QBs. The thing is, he made a few valuable yards (including a TD) on his feet and most importantly he didn’t turn the ball over. That was all he had to do and the Pats defence did the rest. I mean, if that’s the blueprint for a win then any quarterback in the league could have stood under centre and won that game (except for Brandon Weeden – let’s not be unrealistic here). The Texans didn’t run a play in the Pats side of the field in the entire first half.
Now why might that be? Probably because: A) Brock Osweiler is still a limited player in only his second season and playing in a new offence. But also B) Texans head coach Bill O’Brien used to be the offensive coordinator at the Patriots and Belichick knew all his moves. He gave him a few unusual formations to look at and they kept on hounding lil Brock. It was brutal to watch.
The master does not lose to the apprentice.
Rex Ryan: “I can sit back and say I don’t care who plays quarterback, because Brady ain’t. I don’t care who plays quarterback. Steve Grogan can play quarterback. If Belichick’s playing quarterback, we’re coming after him, I promise you that.”
Or maybe Julian Edelman will play quarterback? Only one way to find out… press conference prank call:
Ah, what a man. And he’s coming off a massive 33-18 win over the Cardinals as well which few would’ve seen coming (myself among the unseeing there). After a frankly pathetic effort in TNF against the Jets, the Bills defence finally showed up and did what they’re supposed to do in leading this team, allowing the running game to take them the rest of the way and having Tyrod Taylor playing as a game manager and play-action runner like he should be. That’s the blueprint for how they’re gonna win games – add in a couple deep passes just to spice things up. Four interceptions and a fumble returned for a touchdown. Much more like it.
By the way this game marks a full season’s worth of Rex vs Bill clashes. Belichick currently leads 11-4, so yeah. The thing is, the Cardinals are prone to compounding errors – their rare bad days quickly become nightmares – while the Patriots simply don’t make a lot of errors. You know, errors like I did in not picking them last week. A good gambler knows when to fold ‘em.
Wildcard’s Pick: Patriots by 7
Tennessee Titans (1-2) at Houston Texans (2-1)
Oh hey speaking of the Texans. The good news is that they play the Titans, the bad news is that JJ Watt, who didn’t look 100% to begin with, might be out for the rest of the season with a back injury.
Wildcard’s Pick: Texans by 3
Detroit Lions (1-2) at Chicago Bears (0-3)
Lions vs Bears, there’s an almighty animal kingdom scrap for ya. Probably doesn’t translate to gridiron though, what with that mess of a Chicago football team and all. Honestly, I don’t think they lose a lot if Brian Hoyer is playing in place of Jay Cutler, granted he did nothing against Dallas until garbage time, but there’s such a severe lack of talent across the board there. They can’t seem to block on either side, their run game is a mess and that defence is littered with injuries and inexperience. Their one are of positivity is when Cutler/Hoyer can get the ball to Alshon Jeffery – 271 receiving yards already but the poor lad’s made only 14 catches (never more than five in a game) and is without a touchdown for his efforts. Being an unrestricted free agent in 2017, I almost wonder if the Bears will trade him if things don’t improve. Plenty of teams could use him and have assets to offer (Panthers, R**skins, Vikings, etc.) and he’s only there on the franchise tag anyway.
Odd thing is the Lions are the opposite. They lost their all-time finest WR to retirement and are probably a better offence for it. Now they spread things around more democratically and the run game is blossoming because of it – particularly the hybrid attack with Theo Riddick. I mean, throwing the ball well downfield opens up the run game too… but you’d still rather just throw to Calvin Johnson again. That run game took a hit with only 50 yards against the Packers – some of that was down to Ameer Abdullah’s injury (which they’d better get used to, he’s not eligible to return until late November) and part down to the early GBP blitz that left them chasing the game. And they damn near caught it too.
As far as 1-2 teams go, the Lions are in decent shape as a team. They’ll miss Ziggy Ansah again but they still haven’t conceded a rush TD this season and probably won’t against the Bears. Gotta win this one too. A blown game vs Tennessee has already left them behind the eight ball in this division so a game against the whipping boys is well-timed.
Wildcard’s Pick: Lions by 10
Carolina Panthers (1-2) at Atlanta Falcons (2-1)
There were a number of quarterbacks who had unseasonably poor showings in week three, from Ben Roethlisberger to Blake Bortles, and perhaps chief among them (comparatively speaking at least) was Cam Newton. He threw three picks against the Vikings and looked constantly in a hurry. If you were to look at that team and spot a weakness, the offensive line is probably it and when your QB is getting sacked eight times and hit 12 times then you have an issue there to deal with. Newton, playing on a sore ankle, didn’t really help things by trying to extend plays rather than just taking the L here and there but still.
That’s two tricky performances already from Newton and while he’s only 1/7 of the way to his TD total for 2015 he’s halfway there with interceptions, though if you’re gonna look at the bigger picture you’ll see that they came against the Broncos and Vikings – two of the very best defensive units in the NFL for 2016. Plenty of other teams are gonna have plenty more troubles against those two, that’s for sure. And next up the Panthers meet the Falcons, Buccs and Saints. Yeah, that ought to level things out a fair bit.
The Panthers lost their second game of the season in week three. They lost their second game of the 2016 season in the Super Bowl.
Nothing about the Falcons other than Julio Jones gives me any reason to trust them. They started 3-0 last season, remember. It’s in Atlanta and this fixture last season was the single regular season match that CAR lost. I’d rather not bet on history repeating, to be honest. Friggin’ division rivals though, mate, you never know.
Wildcard’s Pick: Panthers by 6
Seattle Seahawks (2-1) at New York Jets (1-2)
Man I never realised that Ryan Fitzpatrick was such a big Chilis fan, what a guy. He’ll get another chance to practice his new progressive philosophy of giving it away when he comes up against the notoriously greedy Legion this week.
The Jets are actually a very good team. Quality receivers, an impressive run game and a defence that is going to absolutely pummel that horrible Seahawks O-Line. Dudes, like, come on. Your quarterback is getting ravaged every week, sort it out. It’s almost enough to pick the Jets to squeeze this one but for the sake of my having to then watch another entirely floundering Seattle offensive show I’d rather not. Plus Fitzpatrick last week, ya dig?
Wildcard’s Pick: Seahawks by 3
Oakland Raiders (2-1) at Baltimore Ravens (3-0)
Yo, did you watch that debate! Donald Trump was sniffing harder than Tony Montana on a Friday night. I think he was lying (like always) when he said he didn’t prepare for that show – the old bastard had clearly done a few bumps on his way to the stage. How else do you explain all the water he drank too? The man made his name in the shifty world of 1980s property development – you can bet your ass he’s a coke fiend.
As for the rest of it, it’s clearly a good thing for humanity that Hillary Clinton shut him down a few times there but it’s hard to imagine the dumb Americans being swayed by all that. If you didn’t rule out the possibility of voting for Trump at the first chance then I doubt anything else is gonna be too influential. Oh, you don’t like Hillary? By all means then, vote for the pathological liar of an overgrown oompa loompa then. Ruin the world, why don’t you. Someone said something wise to me the other day and it went: If only closed minds came with closed mouths.
Yeah, piss off America, will ya?
Oh right, the game. Umm… there’s something about the way the Ravens keep winning ugly that makes them hard to pick against. The Raiders feel a little too inconsistent to be anything other than an 8-8 team. Next season they’ll be in the playoffs.
Wildcard’s Pick: Ravens by 2
Cleveland Browns (0-3) at Washington R**skins (1-2)
“We’re so close to getting over that hump. Once we get over that hump, I think we’re going to have a lot of success, even this year. … I think we can win all the rest of the games. It depends on our mindset. It depends on how we look at it. It’s just one week at a time.”
No, it wasn’t Kirk Cousins who said that… it was Terrelle Pryor. Of the Cleveland Browns.
To be fair to Pryor, he himself is playing really well. 244 receiving yards on 14 catches so far and 144 of them came last week – not bad for a converted quarterback. Although it quite hilarious that the only way for a QB to have success in Cleveland now seems to be by playing a complete other position. You’ve gotta respect a guy’s effort when he can first of all accept that he probably isn’t good enough to play in his preferred position and then second of all have the work ethic to learn a new one when already at the pro level. That’s quality. So is the fact that he lined up at QB and safety at times in that game too. His opinion however… is not as impressive.
The Skins got desperate last week and the Giants imploded as a result – it was weird to see. Endless penalties and crucial turnovers, most notably the redzone pick from Eli that woulda probably won the game, and Washington can’t say they weren’t a little lucky in winning their first of the season. Still, they set the tone there. More of that and they can be the team they promised before week one. It’s still ridiculous that they let Alfred Morris go though, especially to a division rival. Pure madness.
Wildcard’s Pick: WPFT by 8
Denver Broncos (3-0) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1-2)
Add Trevor Siemian to the list of people getting it done despite expectations. After guiding the team around and not being dumb in the first couple weeks, he took on the Bengals and threw 4 TDs at a QBR of 132.1. Brock Osweiler never had a performance like that last year, that’s for sure – which also puts some shade on the Texans’ current situation. Fair to say the Broncos might have traded up.
What Siemian did against Cincy is about as good as he can offer and even that is way more than they need. This is still a roster coming off a Super Bowl title. That defence is immense. Take a peek at this, what they’ve allowed opposition quarterbacks to do going back to the playoffs last term:
- AFC Divs – Ben Roethlisberger (Steelers): 339 yards / 0 TD / 0 INT / 3 sacks
- AFC Champs – Tom Brady (Patriots): 310 yards / 1 TD / 2 INT / 4 sacks
- Super Bowl – Cam Newton (Panthers): 265 yards / 0 TD / 1 INT / 6 sacks
- Week 1 – Cam Newton (Panthers): 195 yards / 1 TD / 1 INT / 3 sacks
- Week 2 – Andrew Luck (Colts): 197 yards / 1 TD / 1 INT / 5 sacks
- Week 3 – Andy Dalton (Bengals): 206 yards / 0 TD / 1 INT / 4 sacks
Sweet, so Jameis Winston is gonna be all good then…
Wildcard’s Pick: Broncos by 9
Los Angeles Rams (2-1) at Arizona Cardinals (1-2)
I’ll believe it from the Rams if they can do it once more time here. And if they do then the Cardinals are gonna need an exorcism because Palmer imploded vs Buffalo. If that happens again, at home, against the Rams, then there are serious problems. This is a team that should be targeting the Super Bowl.
Wildcard’s Pick: Cardinals by 5
Dallas Cowboys (2-1) at San Francisco 49ers (1-2)
Three quarterbacks have started all three games so far this season and not thrown an interception yet. Philip Rivers is one, the other two quarterbacks are each rookies in their first three games of their career. Riddle that, will ya?
- Dak Prescott – 66/99 passing / 767 yards / 1 TD / 0 INT
- Carson Wentz – 66/102 passing / 769 yards / 5 TD / 0 INT
Wentz is on his bye this week, so Prescott will have the chance to claim that rookie record back after Wentz nicked it off him with a few more passing attempts without an interception. Tom Brady has the overall record streak to begin a career with – 162 pass attempts before his first TD – though he made all but three of them in his second year. And hey, these two can still catch him. For damn sure the 49ers aren’t gonna offer an enormous amount of pressure, even if they won’t be quite as bad as the depleted Bears secondary he just played that had four rookies kitted up in those positions alone. Wentz has looked a little more in control so far but the touchdown margins are blown out by the fact that Dallas hasn’t been pushing the passes in the red zone – hence an NFL leading seven rushing TDs already.
You know who’s second on that list? The San Francisco 49ers and if they’re gonna threaten here it’ll have to be a big game for Carlos Hyde. He’s capable but, like, that’s a lot of expectation. Dallas really needs this one too because a 2-1 start is decent but with the Bengals, Packers (A), Bye and Eagles coming up in the following four weeks, well, that 2-1 start could soon be a 2-5 start if they get sloppy here. No reason to think they will though – the Niners are pretty awful. Run the ball well and keep Hyde off the park – Ezekiel Elliott’s no muppet himself.
Wildcard’s Pick: Cowboys by 10
New Orleans Saints (0-3) at San Diego Chargers (1-2)
Drew Brees doesn’t even care anymore, aye? As long as he gets his 300 yards and a couple TDs then the rest of these buggers can do whatever they want. Wins? Nah, he hasn’t looked at the scoreboard in years. He’s won his Super Bowl. Expect lots of points and not enough defence.
What’ll be fun though is this is Brees’ first game in San Diego since way back when he was playing for the Chargers. He’s played them three times but two were in New Orleans and one in London. But back to the point at hand, Drew Brees leads the league in passing yards (1062) and passing touchdowns (8) and his team is 0-3. How many years of rank horrible defence is it going to take before the Saints finally figure this thing out?
Wildcard’s Pick: Chargers by 7
Kansas City Chiefs (2-1) at Pittsburgh Steelers (2-1)
You’re not playing Ryan Fitzpatrick this week, lads. If there’s a glaring weakness on this Steelers team then it’s that secondary, allowing the second-most pass yards per game so far. But the Chiefs are not a downfield passing kinda team so cross that one out. What they are is a superb defence coming up against Big Ben and Antonio Brown. They’re also a powerful running team coming up against the third best rush defence in 2016 (although both Gio Bernard and Darren Sproles have had big success on them as recievers out of the backfield). It’s always fascinating when strengths and weaknesses match up in alignment.
Let’s take a second to recognise Marcus Peters – four interceptions in his last two games. Probably the form cornerback in the league and there are more than a couple playing on fire right now. He has 12 interceptions in 19 career games and his duel with Antonio Brown is legit the best one on one of the week. And it’s on telly for all to see, hooray.
But what swings this one in the Steelers’ direction is the return of Le’Veon Bell. DeAngelo Williams has been great in his absence with 258 rush yards in three games but all that really does is show you how they can be even better with Mr Bell reinstated.
Wildcard’s Pick: Steelers by 3
New York Giants (2-1) at Minnesota Vikings (3-0)
Lost in the Sam Bradford talk is that the Vikings don’t really need a quarterback that can do what Bradford couldn’t quite do in Philly or St Louis (who used to have an NFL team, if you recall). They’re fine with one that can be okay, as he was in both cities. The reason for that is simple: DEFENCE.
Through three games, the Vikes are:
- First in yards per play allowed (4.4)
- Second in defensive takeaways (9)
- First in sacks (15)
- Fifth in opposition QBR (69.5)
- Sixth in yardage allowed (885) despite oppositions running the 12th most scrimmage plays on them
- Second in percentage of drives ending in scores (20%)
- First in percentage of drives ending in a turnover (25.7%)
And if you wanna start arguing and saying ‘bleh but we’re only three week in bleh’ then here is my retort: the Vikings have played the Packers and Panthers in their last two games. Aaron Rodgers and Cam Newton, the last two league MVPs. If anything their schedule is only gonna get easier and they’re already 3-0.
Also, Captain Munnerlyn. What a name.
Skol, by the way, is a Scandinavian chant that sorta means ‘cheers’ or ‘good health’.
Eventually I’d imagine no Adrian Peterson and one Sam Bradford will cost them a game or few along the way. Eli’s efforts against the R**skins don’t really fill me with confidence though. If the G-Men are turning the ball over then the Vikings will grind them out – you’ve gotta put points on the board here. That’s something that NYG is capable of, definitely.
Both these teams have had trouble with conceding too many fouls as well, another one to watch out for. When they played last December, the Vikes annihilated the Giants 49-17. No way will this be a blowout quite like that but I’m feeling the Vikings, I really am.
So with that in mind, playing us out from possibly my favourite Led Zepp album, it’s Plant, Page and the fellas doing Viking impersonations:
Wildcard’s Pick: Vikings by 5
BYE: Green Bay Packers (2-1), Philadelphia Eagles (3-0)
The Wildcard is a staff writer for The Niche Cache. He’s heard of pick-sixes but six picks!? Bada-bish.