The Wildcard’s NFL Predictions - Week 6
Last Week: 8-6
Season: 42-35
Denver Broncos (4-1) at San Diego Chargers (1-4)
Look, you can dismiss the Chargers all you want but the fact remains that come the fourth quarter there is no more exciting (/hilarious) team to watch. How will they blow it this time? What outrageously unique manner of defeat will they pull from the bag this time?
Let’s ignore the Chargers losing 13 of their last 16 games going back to the start of last season by one score or less and only focus on the masterpiece of choking that they’re painting in 2016 alone:
Week 1 – Midway through the third quarter the Chargers were crushing the Chiefs 24-3. It was 27-10 with only ten minutes left in the game. The Chiefs tied it up with a little over a minute remaining and won it in overtime
Week 2 – They played the Jaguars and won, hooray! 38-14 too so the lead was too big for even the Chargers to blow.
Week 3 – Up 22-20 against the Colts as the two minute warning hit, Andrew Luck hit T.Y. Hilton for a 63 yard touchdown to win the game – with Hilton catching it nine yards downfield over the middle, busting the tackle of one defender and embarrassing the safety for speed.
Week 4 – A real abomination here. They were 34-21 up with less than seven on the clock vs the Saints. Melvin Gordon fumbled 13 yards off his own goal-line. Next offensive play they get, Gordon fumbles again, this time after a catch. The Saints score both times to take the lead and Philip Rivers throws an interception next possession to end it.
Week 5 – Leading by 8 points in the middle of the third, a Melvin Gordon fumble and a horribly wonked punt had them down 10 in the fourth. They fought back though, and in the shadow of the two minute warning they had a 36 yard field goal to tie the game… and they botched the hold.
It’s astounding. This is an art form. Here’s the Wall Street Journal getting all serious about the numbers:
“Prior to Week 5, the Chargers had already blown two games where their fourth-quarter odds of victory were 99.9% and another, against the Colts in Week 3, when they dropped a game despite an 84.7% win probability with just 2:05 left.
Collectively, the odds of losing all four games from those points of time works out to 0.0000034%. “So if you ran a computer simulation of these games from these points 30 million times, the Chargers would lose all four just once,” says Seth Bienstock, a financial analyst consulted by The Count. Bienstock adds that about two-thirds of the time, the simulations would have the Chargers at a perfect 5-0.”
After this latest one, the team are apparently pretty pissed off at their kicker for having a giggle with his opposite number – kicking legend Sebastian Janikowski.
Mike McCoy: “When a teammate sees you in a situation like this and you get caught, laughing it up, people take it differently. Everybody is different. Some players will look at it and say, ‘It’s not a big deal.’ Other players, it pisses you off. You were involved in a critical play in the game, and it wasn’t executed properly, and we lost. Just understand what it means. I think he’s handled it the right way, talking to his teammates, talking to different coaches on the staff, apologizing and what he’s learned from it.”
Yeah alright, son. Blame the kicker for not taking the loss seriously if you will but we’re all laughing at you muppets as well. It’s absolutely a joke at this stage. It’s a full-on piss take.
So with that in mind it’s very difficult to pick them in sound mind when they’re playing the Denver Broncos who specialise in opponent errors. Even after Paxton Lynch proved that maybe they cannot win with any old QB after all. Man… Philip Rivers deserves so much better.
Wildcard’s Pick: Broncos by 12
Philadelphia Eagles (3-1) at Washington R**skins (3-2)
Every year the NFC East is the most confounding division in the NFL. It take forever to figure out what’s going on each season and usually that’s because by the end of the year you realise that they were all crap and that’s why the sloppiness kept occurring. This season started with the Washington Team as the favourites once Tony Romo had gone down but it took one week before the Giants became the darlings. And then the Eagles smashed the Steelers and it was them except they then lost last week in Detroit and the Cowboys did what they did and now it’s Dallas sitting in first place by half a game. More on them later. But the R**skins started 0-2 and have won three on the trot and a fourth in a row might just put them back on top where we started this whole bloody thing!
That one goes out to Carson Wentz after his first career interception. Mate, it was fun while it lasted.
I think the Eagles are the better team here. It’s not just that offence that until last week couldn’t turn the ball over if they tried – it’s actually more the defence that’s sixth best in passing yardage and third best in rushing yardage. And the Washington team cannot rush so that puts it all on Kirk Cousins and that’s funny to me.
Wildcard’s Pick: Eagles by 9
Pittsburgh Steelers (4-1) at Miami Dolphins (1-4)
Sounds about right, to be honest. Where are all the competitive games this week?
Wildcard’s Pick: Steelers by 14
Jacksonville Jaguars (1-3) at Chicago Bears (1-4)
God, this is not what I meant. But in an attempt to keep things one-hunnit on the Bears here, I’ll let Martellus Bennett explain the problems that are happening in Chicago…
Marty: “We just had a bunch of bitches on the roster, That’s why we didn’t win games, and coaches liked the bitches.”
Mate but don’t be criticising Jason Witten again or else you’ll be blacklisted from my picks here. Jason Witten is one of the greatest tight ends to ever walk the planet, if you weren’t learning from him then maybe it’s because you’re an idiot. There, I said it.
The Jags coming off the bye and before that coming off a win in London vs Indy. This could obviously go either way because of the enormous potential for interceptions and fumbles here but assuming nothing stupid happens then I think the Jags are a little more deserving of a second win.
Wildcard’s Pick: Jaguars by 4
Cleveland Browns (0-5) at Tennessee Titans (2-3)
Dammit, how dumb’s it gonna be when NFL Redzone cuts away from one of the many watchable games to bring us an update from this abomination? This is one to focus on the lad Marcus Mariota because frankly there are some big question marks over him right now.
Still, that’s better than the Browns and their quarterback situation. I mean, you get a reputation for something and people are gonna go spotting reasons to keep bringing that up which may or not be fair but the Browns are not getting any smarter about this. What does it take to make an intelligent decision, how can this still be happening!?
Three starting quarterbacks already with Pryor and Whitehurst also lining up there and guess what? All four of the proper quarterbacks there (Pryor’s a trick play dude who these days is quite an effective WR) are currently injured. They’re anticipating at least a couple of them to be ready to return this week so that’ll spare them a sixth QB in six games. Small blessings, aye.
Wildcard’s Pick: Titans by 6
Cincinnati Bengals (2-3) at New England Patriots (4-1)
Tom Brady is back and predictably he tossed over 400 passing yards in a massive win over the Browns. It was only the Browns but no worries, he woulda done that against anyone. Then he took the high ground by going all ‘next week, one game at a time’ after his comprehensive revenge game performance. Again, no worries. Literally every person with a pulse and NFL Network access expected this to happen.
What’s more interesting to me is the efforts of one Robert Gronkowksi. Having sat out the first couple games, he returned against the Texans but was barely used, targeted only once for an incompletion and then the next week he had one catch on two targets for 11 yards. As soon as Brady came back though, suddenly Gronk was back to his usual dominance too with five catches for 109 yards. The Pats were already 3-1 without either of these two doing bugger all and you add them back into things and this is an entirely different prospect. Hmm.
Spoiler Alert: I’m taking the Patriots to win this one at home. Supposing that comes true then the Bengals will be 2-4 in a very tough division and the chances of finally winning a playoff game will be as slim as ever. But… losses to the Steelers, Broncos, Cowboys and Patriots wouldn’t be the worst. Those are all good teams. Counter point to that is losing to those guys, at least three should be in the playoffs this season, only goes to show that the Bengals are still a team that cannot beat better ones. They were thoroughly beaten by the Cowboys and Andy Dalton didn’t even play badly. It was their defensive line that got completely monstered. At least they have the Browns at home after this.
Wildcard’s Pick: Patriots by 6
San Francisco 49ers (1-4) at Buffalo Bills (3-2)
Oooooh! It’s time for THE KAP!
Just, ah, imagine the word Kap instead of Mac as you sing along. Which I know you will be, that song is undeniable.
Yes Colin Kaepernick can finally rise from his knee after the anthem and start throwing a ball around rather than sulking to the bench because Chip Kelly has seen what many others knew to be true from the start: that Blaine Gabbert might be a slightly better passer than The Kap but that Colin’s running ability makes him a far better fit for this offence. Ridiculous that it took this long, I wonder if there were other issues involved in the process. It won’t be the protest because he was already pegged as the backup before that began, but maybe his newfound activism had already made him a bit more of a distraction. I dunno, I hope not. Athletes deserve the stage to say what they wanna say so long as those opinions are, ya know, educated and considered. Which Kaepernick’s is, by the way. Whether you agree with the approach or not.
But the sad thing for the Niners is that they’re gonna lose either way. The Bills are going to pick a couple off and score just enough on the offensive end to make it all count. And suddenly the Buffalo side would then be right back in it having been on the brink of a coaching sack after two weeks – they’d already dumped an offensive coordinator by then.
Alright now everybody chuck them hands together for Lorenzo Alexander. Bills linebacker, 33 years old, on his fifth NFL team and before this season his best year for sacks was in 2007 when he had 2.5. He had three on the weekend alone, as well as three tackles for loss, four QB hurries and a pass defender. His seven sacks are most in the NFL.
Wildcard’s Pick: Bills by 7
Baltimore Ravens (3-2) at New York Giants (2-3)
The Ravens have set themselves up as a team that wins close games but can’t win ‘em any other way. So credit to them for making a shake-up this early in the season despite having a winning record. Gone is offensive coordinator Marc Trestman and if you’ve watched them you’ll no immediately why. The Ravens used to be able to kill ya with long balls and bruising you on the run and this season it’s been all dink and dunk and change the channel, Marge!
They probably won’t learnt to run this week but they can at least stretch out the passing game and test the Giants some. The Giants who are also on a losing streak and whose start wide receiver finally scored a touchdown last week and he immediately sparked a scandalous affair with a kicking net.
Ewww.
Hey I like the Ravens defence though. I like them to give the Giants what for as well. One thing you can bank on is that it should be close.
Wildcard’s Pick: Ravens by 3
Los Angeles Rams (3-2) at Detroit Lions (2-3)
Wildcard’s Pick: Lions by 5
Carolina Panthers (1-4) at New Orleans Saints (1-3)
I guess the Panthers are already at the win-out stage then. They won 14 on the trot last season so it ain’t impossible. But, ah… with Derek Anderson at the wheel it might be. The commentators kept saying that he was good enough to be a starter elsewhere, talking him up like that, and like, sure, at the Cleveland Browns he would be a starter. But not on a team that rates themselves to get back to the Super Bowl.
What I saw was a dude whose every fourth pass looked like it was gonna be picked and then eventually that came true in the worst fashion. That interception in the endzone, bro. What are you even thinking!? First and goal at the two yard line and he throws a fader into double coverage. That is genuine insanity. Someone stamp that man.
The Panthers are making mistakes all over the place too, their backup QB was hardly alone. Cam Newton is likely to return for them here and Jonathan Stewart’s a chance too but to be fair Cameron Artis-Payne was a fine replacement in that Buccs game. There’s a lot that they need to fix and this game against the Saints might only paper the cracks. By the way, the last team to make the Super Bowl and then start 1-4 was the 2004 Panthers. They ended 7-9 that year.
Throw one up for Katie Nolan while we’re at it. Sporting satire at its best.
Wildcard’s Pick: Panthers by 10
Kansas City Chiefs (2-2) at Oakland Raiders (4-1)
I’m just gonna make this point one more time before I assume it’s common knowledge once and for all:
Look at that pass. Just look at it. Would you look at it? So good, man. That’s just perfect and Derek Carr is playing absolutely great. He might be a top ten QB already.
But… I’m picking them to lose. Everyone drops one every now and then and the Chiefs need this win. They need it and they’re the kind of team that won’t let the Raiders pull off the fourth quarter finishes that they’ve been used to so far.
Wildcard’s Pick: Chiefs by 6
Dallas Cowboys (4-1) at Green Bay Packers (3-1)
Wow, did you see that offensive line go to work against the Bengals? No, you didn’t? Well here it is in all the crushing glory you’d imagine. Lemme hear ya say: “ZEEEEEEEEKEEEE!!!”
He fumbled one against the Bengals, however Dak’s now at 155 pass attempts without an interception and with Wentz falling by the wayside the rookie record is now his. Not only that but the overall record for attempts to begin a career belongs to Tom Brady and that number is only 162 (‘only’, ha!). He’s a very high chance of breaking that this week. Supposing that Romo is good to go after the bye though, there’s also a very high chance that it might be a while before he gets to touch Troy Aikman’s franchise record of 216. Again, I’m assuming he never ever throws an interception in his career.
Guys, come on though. There’s no way that Dak Prescott is still starting when Tony Romo is back to full health though. Prescott is incredible at what he does but that’s nothing compared to what Romo offers and Romo can hit that pass downfield that opens up the passing game in Dallas completely. Remember that as good as the running game has become, Dez Bryant has been injured/a nonfactor most of this season. Bring Romo back in and thus make Dez prominent again and see what happens. Given that they’re getting way better than expected contributions on defence from the likes of Mo Claiborne, this might actually be a really good Cowboys team.
Ahhh but the Packers have won five in a row against Dallas and I still sometimes have nightmares about the 45-7 loss in 2010. Them at Lambeau… that’s hard to pick against.
Wildcard’s Pick: Packers by 3
Atlanta Falcons (4-1) at Seattle Seahawks (3-1)
Tell ya what, this could be the match of the week. No team has scored more points than the Falcons through five weeks. They’ve had a 300 yard game from Julio Jones and then last week they won against the defending champs with Julio only making two catches for 29 yards. They did it there through their running backs, picking up 135 receiving yards from Tevin Coleman and it’s that kind of tactical tweak that’s made them as good as they are in 2016. A few weeks ago they had zero pass rush and then they go and sack Paxton Lynch six times. Vic Beasley with 3.5 of them.
Then there’s Matt Ryan:
- 4-1 W-L / 69.0% COMP / 1740 YDS / 12 TD / 2 INT / 121.6 RATE
That’s a huge lead in QB Rating and a huge lead in passing yards. Only Hoyer and Bradford top him for completion and they’ve thrown fewer passes and have half the TDs. Who has a better MVP case through to now than Matty Ice?
So yeah, the Falcons are legit. All hail the Falcons.
But the Seahawks. Since those first couple stuttering games they’ve been a lot better (against poor Niners and Jets teams, granted) particularly on offence and Russell Wilson will be in the best shape of his season coming off the bye. And they still have a ruthless defence. Not quite what it once was second in pass yards against so still rather bloody good. This is the test for the Falcons, their big chance to really make that statement.
Wildcard’s Pick: Falcons by 3
Indianapolis Colts (2-3) at Houston Texans (3-2)
One thing about the Texans and their wonky season: they’re 3-0 at home. One thing about the Colts is that Andrew Luck is playing really well despite it all but the Colts are simply terrible around him. What kind of luck is that? (hehe…). He doesn’t deserve this, Lucky.
It might not feel like it with both teams trying to figure out a dodgy start but these are the two teams most likely to go the distance in the AFC South and so this came is gonna have some serious implications. Playoff implications. And because of that I’ll side with the home team, the one that plays way better in front of their own fans.
Wildcard’s Pick: Texans by 6
New York Jets (1-4) at Arizona Cardinals (2-3)
This could definitely turn out to be a critical game in both of these teams’ seasons. Neither can really afford another loss and both are having ridiculous problems with interceptions which never helps. Drew Stanton doesn’t appear to be all that good of a player upon further review and Ryan Fitzpatrick is busy undoing a decent 2015 campaign himself. Jets are first with 10, Cardinals are fourth equal with seven – each have lost three fumbles as well.
I still rate the Cardinals as a lot better than they’ve shown and win this they’re back at 50%. Not ideal but something to build upon. And with some of the crap games that have been on in the MNF slots so far, I’d rather not dwell any further. Instead here’s a song that I like, hooray!
Wildcard’s Pick: Cardinals by 7
BYE: Minnesota Vikings (5-0), Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2-3)
The Wildcard is a staff writer for The Niche Cache. And he still thinks that Tony Romo can win a Super Bowl so shove it. (But Dak is the truth as well, no shade on Dak).