The Wildcard’s NFL Predictions - Week 8
Last Week: 10-3-1
Season: 61-45-1
Jacksonville Jaguars (2-4) at Tennessee Titans (3-4)
Well wouldn’t you know it? This game is actually happening. Titans vs Jaguars, HB WC. And they wonder why the NFL is losing viewership? You’re goddamned right I’ll be watching the NBA while this bad boy is taking place.
But hey I’ll flick the channel back now and then. That decline in telly watching is a funny one, because it’s no small thing. 12% down through the first seven weeks and it isn’t only the NFL as well because the English Premier League is down nearly 20%. And while the NFL is a bit down on quality this season the Premier League is as good as it’s ever been so whaddayaknow?
I know. People don’t watch on telly as much these days. Television is a bit stupid and with every single game available, which is great and how it needs to be, people don’t feel the need to watch every one of them. You watch your team, maybe watch the primetime and then just chuck it on Redzone for the rest or whatever. You can follow the stuff on twitter, you can stream the games free and slightly illegally. Once again, despite all the business experts jumping up like whack-a-moles to have their say about trends and oversaturated markets, the real underlying reason is that these figures are based on an outdated model that predates the internet.
The major focus here will be on the two quarterbacks with Blake Bortles trying not to throw interceptions and Marcus Mariota trying not to throw incompletions. Should be… fun? Probably not.
But keep an eye on DeMarco Murray who of course was the rushing leader a couple years ago with Dallas and then promptly had a disaster in Philadelphia. Now a Titan, he’s quietly gotten back towards what he was doing in 2014. Despite playing on a team with a negative record, and teams that lose tend to throw more to catch up, he’s third in rush yards this season. Bagging 90 per game at 4.6 a carry.
- Ezekiel Elliott (DAL) – 703
- David Johnson (ARI) – 681
- DeMarco Murray (TEN) – 633
- LeSean McCoy (BUF) – 598
- Lamar Miller (HOU) – 581
Bear in mind that with the bye last week, Zeke is top of the table having played a game less than these other four. Murray’s also got 192 receiving yards too with seven combined touchdowns. Good for him, he’s a top dude. And as a team when you can go in with a running game that’s going to get you yardage, that can be the difference in a game like this which is otherwise gonna be defined by mistakes.
Wildcard’s Pick: Titans by 6
Washington R**skins (4-3) at Cincinnati Bengals (3-4)
Believe it or not this is another London game. At Wembley though, back in those regular confines. In keeping with the NFL’s borderline-colonial approach, here they supply the first London outings for Washington and Cincinnati – giving the unsuspecting British a look at how America treats its indigenous peoples.
Given the records of these teams, it’s a fairly important one. Both are in strong divisions, both are nearing the point of the season where they run out of second chances. Actually, the R**skins might have been there since starting 0-2, though they shoulda had a win on the weekend to leave them 5-2, which could make all the difference. But there’s no accounting for The Staff in the fourth quarter with in a one-possession game. More later.
Things get hard for the WPFT now, by the way. Bengals in London, Vikings and Packers at home, then a three game road trip to face Dallas, Arizona and Philly. The Bengals are the weakest of that lost so this is a crucial one. Just to add a little more salt, the WPFT are also nursing injuries to Jordan Reed, Trent Williams and Josh Norman who you can make a case are their three best dudes.
In his last four games, Andy Dalton has thrown 1127 yards at 69.5% completion with 6 TDs and 0 INTs. Both he and Kirk Cousins are known to air that ball out now and then. However while Washington has three 300+ yard receivers, none have topped 400 and A.J. Green is second in the NFL with 775. Imagine if Norman isn’t fit enough to guard him? Mayhem.
Wildcard’s Pick: Bengals by 7
Arizona Cardinals (3-3-1) at Carolina Panthers (1-5)
I watched that Cardinals vs Seahawks game riveted like I might to the scene of a car crash. It was captivatingly bad offensive football. Only offensive, because we also got treated to two stunning defences out there desperately trying to win their team a game. Trench warfare and all that, you need a game like this every now and then to keep the balance. Of course, Americans are all about more more more so they just complain about it but I loved it (albeit in a kinda perverse way).
The Seahawks had five first downs in regulation time. They had six more in OT. Typical damn Seahawks, I bet they loved it too. The three games this season with fewer than ten points combined in the first three quarters have all involved the Seattle side. This was a game where a first down felt like a touchdown and there were still precious few of them. The Cardinals had a respectable 443 yards of offence but look they still only scored the same amount of points. There was not a turnover between them.
And then we have the kickers… both of them missing <30 yard field goals in overtime. Those are chip shots, they’re closer than extra points. Chandler Catanzaro has been a liability at times this season, also missing a game winner against the Patriots this season. He’s also missed a point after. Thing is, this great kicker. He was close to a 90% guy in his first two seasons – that was his first ever miss from under 30 yard, having been 20/20 ‘til then. It’s a panic issue when a two of a guy’s three misses in the season have come in the most crucial situations. You cannot do that. Luckily for him Steve Hauschka went and missed one of his own and we were treated to another tie between NFC West sides – the Niners and Rams drew in 2012, the first tie since the revamped OT rules.
This is a rematch of a rather famous NFC Championship game last season. You remember it. Carson Palmer was picked off four times in an absolute hiding.
Funny thing, the Panthers have fallen off a cliff since and the major difference has been their pass defence. They’ll be feisty, they almost have to win out already from here but I’m just saying that Palmer threw 49 passes without a pick against the Seahawks last week and if he wants some revenge then here’s an opportunity. I still think the Cards are playing for something and the Panthers, well… teams don’t make the playoffs from 1-5. They might win this one, absolutely they might, but they’re not an easy team to tip against a top passing offence. The Falcons put 571 yards on them. The Saints put on 523.
Wildcard’s Pick: Cardinals by 7
Detroit Lions (4-3) at Houston Texans (4-3)
Matthew Stafford, I’m surprised they ever doubted you, son. That drive he led to win that game last week was nothing short of top class. It was his 24th career game winning drive. In his 100th career game. Now how about that?
In his last 13 games his line reads:
232/461 @ 70.1% COMP / 3569 YDS / 32 TD / 5 INT / 111.3 RATE
Give him three more goes to turn that into a complete season and I’m not even lying that would be the stat line of an MVP. You wouldn’t think he lost the greatest wide receiver of his generation in there too, either. Then again, when you watch them there’s a clear trend. Staff isn’t hurling deep any longer, he’s not trying to break yardage records. Instead he’s protecting the ball a lot more, throwing shot and mid-rangers and bringing the running backs into the passing game. He was never a high percentage passer before. He used to hover around 60% with around 14 interceptions. He threw 20 as a rookie, and has never put up fewer than 12 in a full season (2014). He’s on target for 9 in 2016, completing at 68%. Yet he’s also on target to top his yardage totals for 2014 and 2015. This shift has been in the process for that time so no coincidence but now it’s really coming through, that’s three wins on the trot for the Lions now. Watch this space.
Shout out to offensive coordinator Jim Bob Cooter.
Stafford could probably offer a few words of encouragement to Brock Osweiler. He’s been written off unfairly for most of his career and Ossie surely needs to hear a bit of that these days. It’s different for him though, because he might actually be a bad quarterback whereas Staff was only ever underrated. Once again, you don’t pay a guy big cash based on a few games, especially when backed by a legendary defence… which he found all about last game. 41 pass attempts for 131 yards. Holy crap that’s awful.
Wildcard’s Pick: Lions by 7
Seattle Seahawks (4-1-1) at New Orleans Saints (2-4)
Forget about the Seahawks, I’ve already gone in deep on them and forget about the Saints who do what they do every week – with five minutes to go they’ll either be 14 points up or 14 points down and either way it’ll feel like the game’s still well on the line.
Instead I wanna highlight the outstanding person that is Marshawn Lynch. See, there was this profile on him in the Seattle Times the other day and some of the things mentioned there, some of the things people said about him… like, he was known as this brutal running back who was short with the media and pretty terse all-around but that’s only coz he played by his own rules. And when a dude doesn’t cooperate with the media, they have a tendency to take that personally in how he’s reflected. I mean, they’re trying to do their jobs too.
Even after he’s retired, Marshawn is still a lot of people’s favourite current NFL player. You bend the rules for guys this cool. He was on Bear Grylls’ new show a few weeks back. He popped up in The League a few times at the end of his career. He played video games with Conan O’Brien. Countless other things. This is still the closest I’ve ever come to discovering the meaning of life:
Remember when Ricardo Lockett got crushed in a game a while back and had to be stretchered off with a serious neck injury? He ended up having to retire because of it. Well Marshawn Lynch was one of the first guys there at the hospital to see him. Here’s Lockette’s dad Earl explaining it:
“We were in there with Ricardo and everything was in a sad mode. A nurse comes up and says, ‘We don’t know much about football, Mr. Lockette, but there’s a guy outside who says he needs to be in here. He says he plays with Ricardo, and his name is Marshawn Lynch’. I go to the lobby, and Marshawn has his bags. He said, ‘I knew it was more than what they told me when I saw him go down. I knew it was more severe than that and I could not leave him here’. What Ricardo didn’t know is that Marshawn peeked in the room and saw he was in there, in the bed, strapped down, couldn’t move, and he cried like a baby. Marshawn did. I won’t tell you everything he did, but he took a couple steps back and soaked those tears up, and he went in there and made my son feel like he could run and jump.”
“And then on top of that, we didn’t know nothing about nothing. He asked us, ‘How long are you guys going to be here?’ We said, ‘We don’t know. Until he gets up and walks again, we’re not leaving.’ He said, ‘I’ve got you guys. You don’t have to worry about anything.’ When I say he meant that, he really did. He took care of us for a period of time to make sure we didn’t have to worry about getting places, transportation, anything. He did that.”
Man, that almost makes me wanna cry too. Read the full thing here, complete with teammate stories about what a champ Marshawn is.
Wildcard’s Pick: Seahawks by 6
Kansas City Chiefs (4-2) at Indianapolis Colts (3-4)
I hate picking Colts games. What a bloody shambles. They have a top five quarterback (arguably) and every single player around him looks like they either walking in off the street of outta the retirement home. The Chiefs are too consistent. They’ll punish the errors, they’ll turn red zone visits into points.
Ah wait, wrong Chiefs.
Wildcard’s Pick: Chiefs by 3
New York Jets (2-5) at Cleveland Browns (0-7)
You know what I’m offended at myself for not noticing before? Ryan Fitzpatrick looks a lot like Stan Rizzo from Mad Men. Hahaha.
Todd Bowles: “If pissed off is going to stop the turnovers, then I’m happy, I’m more than happy to have him pissed off the whole time.”
Doesn’t look like Stan took the benching all that well but it didn’t matter because Geno Smith went and tore his ACL. Then Stan came in and led them to victory over the Ravens (picked it!). With the Dolphins, Rams, Pats and Colts coming up after this game, it isn’t impossible that the Jets win four of their next five and are 6-6 with a quarter of the season remaining. Beating the Dolphs in Miami is proving incredibly difficult but you never know. Most likely it’s too late but the Jets are better than they’ve shown.
Right, now it’s time to play…
CLEVELAND’S ROAD TO 0-16!!!
Seven losses from seven games, ranging from an OT defeat in Miami to a 20 point pummelling in Tom Brady’s return at home to the Pats. They lost by two to the Titans on the road and followed that up with a two TD defeat in Cincinnati. There are also losses to the Eagles, Ravens an R**skins in there somewhere. This is what’s up next:
- New York Jets
- Dallas Cowboys
- @ Baltimore Ravens
- Pittsburgh Steelers
- New York Giants
- BYE
- Cincinnati Bengals
- @ Buffalo Bills
- San Diego Chargers
- @ Pittsburgh Steelers
The good thing is that five of their next six are at home. Whether that makes too much difference or not it’s hard to say but they might get lucky if Ben Roethlisberger is still out for the Steelers in week 11. The Ravens have shown they’re beatable and the New York Giants are prone to the odd silly loss… though how exactly the Browns are meant to cover Odell Beckham is another matter entirely. They have zero chance against the Cowboys and the Bills and Bengals won’t exactly be fearing them either. The Chargers are way better than their record but they have a trend of choking so keep it close there, maybe. Then again, if you’re 0-14 at that stage, how hard can you really still try?
Oooh add Kevin Hogan to the list of people who’ve thrown passes for the Browns this season. Six quarterbacks already. Almost as many as they have losses. Can you even imagine them winning any of these remaining games? The only 0-16 season in history was the 2008 Lions. The Cavs win the NBA, the Indians are in the World Series… and then we have the Browns, aye?
Wildcard’s Pick: Jets by 3
New England Patriots (6-1) at Buffalo Bills (4-3)
An update on the Tom Brady is Not Human meter:
3 G / 75.2% COMP / 1004 YDS / 8 TD / 0 INT / 132.6 RATE
Soon he’s gonna start passing suckers on the yardage list despite having missed four entire games. He’s 30th for now but give him a couple more weeks and he’ll be rising fast.
This is a big game, the Bills needing to hit back after losing in Miami and here with the chance to make another big divisional statement. And if they don’t, it’s highly unlikely to see the Pats losing top spot. So no pressure, Mr Ryan.
I seem to recall the Bills spotting the Pats a few weeks back yet I also recall they had a rookie QB in there that day and this time Tom Brady will be there. What I saw then was the Bills building a game plan around making Jacoby Brissett uncomfortable and it worked a treat. It won’t against Brady. There is a slight worry about how hard it seemed for the Pats to put away a weakened Steelers side although they got there in the end, didn’t they.
Did you know in the 15 years that Tom Brady has been quarterbacking for New England, the Patriots have never been swept in the regular season by an AFC East rival? They tend to hot back pretty hard too when they do lose.
The Bills were torched by Jay Ajayi last week. That bloody guy, coming out of nowhere and dominating for the Miami Dolphins at RB. Back to back 200+ yard rush games, with 214 against the Bills. 53 carries in two games, granted, he’ll be stoked for the bye this week.
Anyway, the Bills have DT Marcell Dareus back this time so they shouldn’t be so awful there. Chances are LeSean McCoy is out too and frankly the Bills cannot survive without him against a top team. It’s a hamstring too so not the kind of thing you can afford to risk – those suckers linger, mate.
Wildcard’s Pick: Patriots by 10
Oakland Raiders (5-2) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (3-3)
A couple of touted breakout teams here, the Raiders are definitely living up to that tag while the Buccs are still in range and they’ve got a couple good wins over the Falcons and Panthers. Hmm but they did lose to the Rams, so that’s dumb.
Weird thing for the Buccs is that all three of their wins have come on the road and the Raiders are 4-0 on the road themselves. That about solves this one with time to spare doesn’t it?
Wildcard’s Pick: Raiders by 8
San Diego Chargers (3-4) at Denver Broncos (5-2)
Haha, nope. You’re not gonna trap me into talking about the Chargers and trying to put some sense on that whole thing.
Wildcard’s Pick: Broncos by 4
Green Bay Packers (4-2) at Atlanta Falcons (4-3)
Aaron Rodgers is still up and down with the old form and whatnot but he took a swing back towards favourability when he chatted on watching the game tape with a glass of whiskey last week. But then he went and did this and that was it. I’ll never doubt you again, dude…
THAT’S THE SAME CARDIGAN AS THE DUDE WEARS IN THE BIG LEBOWSKI! I LOVE THAT MOVIE!
Not gonna lie, I scouted out the internet to see where I could buy one of those beauts but they were like $250 online. And I doubt they’d be any cheaper anywhere else too. I’ll just have to make do with the DVD and the odd White Russian. Oh and my Credence. Gotta remember the Credence.
Sounds like the Packers coming up against the Falcons. I’m one of the loud crowd that thinks Dan Quinn needed to go for that fourth down in OT against the Chargers but I’m not one of those people that’s too worried about a two point loss in Seattle and an OT loss against San Diego. If the Falcons collapse like they did last season then I’ll be fairly stunned, they definitely look like a better team. Good enough to float a few out against the Packers, whose defence has actually been the better performing side of the ball for them.
This is a really close game, another in a super tough schedule for the Falcons this month. Seriously, they’ve played both Super Bowl teams from last time (asterisk on the 2016 Panthers) as well as the Seahawks, Chargers and now the Packers. It’s difficult for them and they’ll be wishing they hadn’t thrown that Buccs game away.
Problem for the Falcons is that they do leak a lot of points. 199 of them in fact, more than every team except for the 49ers, Browns and Colts – all terrible teams (though one has an All-Star QB). You can be good and give up points but it means the margin for turnover errors is crazy slim. The problem for the Packers is that they’ve been inconsistent with the ball themselves. Rodgers completed 39 passes last week, which is insane, but that was against the Bears.
Wildcard’s Pick: I’ll take the Falcons by 3
Philadelphia Eagles (4-2) at Dallas Cowboys (5-1)
Oh yes. Oh yes. Oh yes. This is what I’m talking about. This is what’ll drive the ratings back through the roof again. It’s two of the very best teams this season, both sides that weren’t expected to be this good either, going head to head in a primetime slot. Dallas coming off a bye on a five game win streak and Philly having just beaten the only undefeated team left. Oh, and they’re division rivals too.
The word is that Tony Romo has finally returned to practice, albeit in a limited role. They had been targeting this game to bring him back, which I thoroughly believe they should – Dak has been unbelievable but he’s a rookie and the rug could be pulled out at any moment. I think Romo’s abilities in the passing game overtakes the extra running capability of Dak, as well as bringing the best out in Dez Bryant when he’s good to go and you wanna bring him back into a heavy role if you’re gonna go deep this season. Anyway, the signs are that Romo will have to wait another week or two. Fair enough, that balance between quarterbacks is irrelevant if one is hurt.
And here Dak Prescott comes up against the other star rookie quarterback out there, Sir Carson Wentz. Their turnover-less back and forth was a fascinating storyline earlier in the campaign and now they get to go head to head directly for the first in presumably many, many opportunities they’ll have in the future.
- Dak: 125/182 @ 68.7% / 1486 YDS / 7 TD / 1 INT / 103.9 RATE
- Carson: 118/185 @ 63.8% / 1324 YDS / 8 TD / 3 INT / 92.7 RATE
It’s close stuff, Wentz suffering a bit from having played the Vikings last week. To be honest though, the situation with the Cowboys is not about Prescott, it’s about their other rookie: Ezekiel Elliott. I wouldn’t assume too many points in this one since the Cowboys are gonna look to control the ball and the clock and Philly’s defence is really good. As much as they don’t turn the ball over, neither of these teams do actually, the Eagles sure know how to make it happen the other way with 12 turnovers. Dallas tends not to be a team that wins the ball back much at all but they’ve had a couple big plays this time around. Their defence has been a pleasant surprise, though realistically that’s only the case because of what their offence does. Also because Rod Marinelli is a genius.
Tell you what, I’m really excited about this Cowboys team and when they’re able to do whatever they want with that offensive line, I’m not even sure how they lose. Ah Christ, I shouldn’t have said that…
Wildcard’s Pick: Screw it, Cowboys by 7
Minnesota Vikings (5-1) at Chicago Bears (1-6)
Yeah, okay then. When it rains it pours and when it rains on that Minny O-Line it suddenly gets porous. They have one turnover in five games before their bye and they come outta that with four against the Eagles. That was sharp from Philly, they sent crazy pressure at Sam Bradford and he wasn’t the same under that. No QB would be… but not every QB is protected by what has now been confirmed as a sloppy line. Then again, the Eagles have a pass rush that only the Vikings themselves (along with the Broncos, Bills and Seahawks) can really compare with. So that won’t be the most exploitable thing.
Great teams bounce back after defeats and any team would be happy enough to play the Bears in chasing that. Jay Cutler is back for Chicago which makes them better, not having to start Matt Barkley. The Cutlet can only do so much though and getting Alshon Jeffrey his first touchdown catch of the season would be a good start – I’d really like not to see him traded to Philly or wherever if that’s at all possible. Come on, help me out here, guys.
Here, I’ll even let one of Chicago’s finest play us out this week:
Wildcard’s Pick: Vikings by 12
BYE: Baltimore Ravens (3-4), Los Angeles Rams (3-4), Miami Dolphins (3-4), New York Giants (4-3), Pittsburgh Steelers (4-3), San Francisco 49ers (1-6)
The Wildcard is a staff writer for The Niche Cache. The reason he doesn't watch much NFL on TV anymore is that his telly was kidnapped by nihilists and he messed up the hand-off when the ringer got mistaken for the money and there was an uzi... long story.