The Wildcard’s NFL Predictions - Week 9
Last Week: 8-4-1
Season: 69-49-2
Atlanta Falcons (5-3) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (3-4)
Here we are now, roughly halfway through the 2016 NFL season. Every team has played either 7 or 8 of their 16 games and we’ve got a good idea of who’s who and who’s doing what. Except maybe for these Falcons. In my mind they’re legit though they did lose to these Buccs in the first week and this will not be an easy one at all. Especially not with the Eagles, a bye week, the Cardinals and the Chiefs to follow.
At this midway point, Matt Ryan is making a serious case for league MVP, even if he might have lost a bit of steam with those two losses they copped before beating the Packers last week. Maybe. It depends. Like, for one thing it depends on whether you consider Tom Brady to be in contention despite only playing four times. He’s on pace for 16 game numbers of 5276 yards with 48 TDs. That ranks up there with his best ever season, which also happen to be some of the best seasons any player has ever produced. Now, he won’t play 16 games this season, but the dominance he’s shown has been something special.
Midseason MVP Candidates:
- Matt Ryan (ATL) – 69.2% COMP | 2636 YDS | 19 TD | 4 INT | 115.8 RATE | 5-3 W/L
- Derek Carr (OAK) – 66.3% COMP | 2321 YDS | 17 TD | 3 INT | 100.9 RATE | 6-2 W/L
- Tom Brady (NEP) – 73.1% COMP | 1319 YDS | 12 TD | 0 INT | 133.9 RATE | 4-0 W/L
- Ezekiel Elliott (DAL) – 799 RUSH YDS | 5.0 Y/A | 5 TD | 150 REC YDS | 6-1 W/L
- David Johnson (ARI) – 705 RUSH YDS | 4.5 Y/A | 8 TD | 407 REC YDS | 3-4-1 W/L
I’d be leaning towards Zeke there, to be honest. Though the three quarterbacks have more upside across the rest of the season. Like, Elliott can only keep doing what he’s doing while those chaps can up the ante still. Hence why quarterbacks usually win this award. And at this pace Tom Brady is going to win it with 12 starts.
Might as well make a thing of this, here are my other mid-season picks for the awards:
- Coach of the (Half) Year – Mike Zimmer, Minnesota Vikings
- Defensive Player – Von Miller, Denver Broncos
- Rookie of the Year – Ezekiel Elliott, Dallas Cowboys
- Defensive Rookie – Jalen Ramsey, Jacksonville Jaguars
There ya go, all sorta speak for themselves.
The mid-season prediction form continues then, I bagged 8 ticks last week for a 19-7 record over the last couple weeks. After the trash I served up to start this thing, I’ll take that for sure. This week looks like a fairly simple one to pick as well… so that’s bound to mean the hot streak is over.
Wildcard’s Pick: Falcons by 6
Detroit Lions (4-4) at Minnesota Vikings (5-2)
Bit weird when a team that went into their bye week at 5-0 has now parted ways with their offensive coordinator. Norv Turner wasn’t sacked, he resigned due to creative differences or whatever but… you know it isn’t actually that weird. It’s actually kinda understandable, which is a decent reflection on how good that defensive unit is that they can win all those games and still have a fairly useless offence. They relied on the simple stuff, that’s the trick. Except now Sam Bradford is getting sacked every second breath and games are being lost.
The Vikings are staying calm about it all but two losses and a lost coordinator suggest that tensions are rising beneath the surface for the SKOLers as they should also be for the Lions who have a way of losing games they really shouldn’t. This could be a really desperate game and desperate games are fun games.
Did I mention that along with the 11 sacks, Sam Bradford has also been his 22 other times in the last two games? And that the Vikes have only scored 20 combined points in those games even though one of those teams was the Chicago Bears and they straight up suck? Tricky stuff.
After all the Falcons started 5-0 last season and only finished 8-8. As good as they were through the first five weeks, and they were without a doubt in the top three sides, the Vikings now face a difficult little spell where they have to right this ship in a hurry or waste it. Given how many injuries they’ve suffered, especially on offence, it isn’t a shocker in hindsight that they’d run out of steam and options eventually. That doesn’t mean they were a fraud in those first couple months, just that it wasn’t sustainable over a season. But we’ll find out in due course – these two teams play twice in November.
Wildcard’s Pick: Lions by 1
Pittsburgh Steelers (4-3) at Baltimore Ravens (3-4)
Guess who’s baaaaack?
Huh? Nah, not Peyton Manning. Not Brett Favre either (though I see shades of him in Derek Carr these days, which is amazing). It’s Big Ben. They said his knee injury would sideline him for 4-6 weeks and he’s apparently ready to go having only missed two weeks – AND ONE WAS A BYE. The man is borderline indestructible. You could cut off his arm and he’d be back within a week. Cut off his legs and he’d return within the month. The man is the Black Knight of the real world only he also wins stuff.
Which sucks for the Ravens, who really need to win this game or they’re just gonna fall off the back of the tractor. And the Ravens only win close games. The Steelers win blowouts with Big Ben and Le’Veon and Antonio and the rest of them.
Terrell Suggs on Big Ben: “Don't fall for that. I saw this movie before. He's going to act like, 'I'm not playing. I don't know. I did individual today and threw a little bit. I still don't know.' Then he's going to walk ... on out there. I'm going to be like, 'How you doin', Benjamin?'”
How you doin’ indeed.
Wildcard’s Pick: Steelers by 6
New York Jets (3-5) at Miami Dolphins (3-4)
Folks, I believe we have ourselves a Loser Goes Home game right over here. I mean, neither of them are gonna make the playoffs without a minor miracle but lose here and they’ll be last in a division that’s led by a 7-1 Patriots team. I happen to think that both of these teams are worthy of 8-8 but neither is likely to even get there either on account of the losses they’ll pile up against New England. Dolphs are 3-0 at home though, that’s the kicker.
Do I need to go into any more detail here? There are better games.
Wildcard’s Pick: Dolphins by 4
Dallas Cowboys (6-1) at Cleveland Browns (0-8)
The win over the Eagles must have really complicated things for Jerry Jones, you know. For the first time it sounds like he’s wavering a little on the Romo vs Prescott debate, although if anything that was the first time that Dak really didn’t have a good game. His 79.8 QB rating vs PHI was way down on his season average which had been over 100 and although he helped them down the field at the end there, showing great composure and patience to wait and find Jason Witten in the endzone for the win, he also was arguably the reason they needed extra time what with that dumb interception he threw and the wasted red zone opps.
You know me, I love this Prescott lad but I’ve never felt that bringing in Tony Romo’s superior arm wouldn’t be an improvement. It’s dumb that I have to say this every week, just gotta keep pushing back against the echo chamber that is commercialised American sports media. Romo won’t be fit for this game which is a shame as it’d be the ideal re-entry, I mean Tom Brady sure torched the Browns in his first game back. But word is he’s taking part in 11v11 scrimmage and throwing bombs too. Here’s what Dez has had to say:
Dez Bryant: “The way he been working. He been working, I’ll give him that. He lost some weight. I thought I seen a couple abs on him – one or two.”
Typical Dez. He’s the one who shapes as having the most to gain by Romo coming back, since he’s their gun receiver and despite returning with 113 yards and a touchdown against the Eagles, 53 came on one reception. He only had four catches. Romo will bring him more involved and he’ll be better at converting touchdowns inside the 20. Plus I know you lose something with the run game but when you have that offensive line and Ezekiel Elliott, I dunno that it matters all that much. They’ll still gorge on rush yardage.
But the debate goes on another week.
I can’t decide if the Indians losing the World Series makes the Browns’ futility more or less embarrassing. I guess nobody in Cleveland has been paying them any mind anyway so probably neither. I’m curious about this trend that’s been seen though. You know how those old chain emails used to warn you about curses and stuff if you don’t pass them on? Or that movie that I haven’t watched yet but sounds like a half decent scare:
Well how about this:
- GS Warriors down 3-1 to OKC and they come back to win
- Warriors then are up 3-1 against Cavs in NBA Finals and lose
- Cleveland’s baseball team then inherit it from the Cavs and blow a 3-1 World Series lead
So… good thing the Bears are on a bye, I s’pose.
Wildcard’s Pick: Cowboys by 14
Jacksonville Jaguars (2-5) at Kansas City Chiefs (5-2)
You’ve gotta give credit to the Chiefs really, after playing it safe with Alex Smith’s concussion. Although there was no proper confirmation that it was a concussion at all and not just a dazing, they took him out of the game against the Colts and he won’t be playing this one either. It would have meant more if they hadn’t put Smith back in to get hit against vs Indy but eventually they came around to the safe decision. Obviously things would be different in a playoff game. The game is never gonna be 100% safe. The point isn’t that they’re playing safe when it’s convenient, the point is that it’s convenient, so they’re playing safe. Applaud it, don’t be cynical.
Instead they’ll start Nick Foles, who looked next to flawless in his relief efforts. 223 yards at 72.7% completion with 2 TDs and no picks. Can’t ask for much more from a backup. It’s funny that Foles could have had a starting gig elsewhere in the offseason, or at least competed for one, but chose rather to go back-up in KCC so he could play with Andy Reid again. Respect the walrus, aye?
In other news Jamaal Charles is off to Injured Reserve and the Chiefs are working out Trent… haha, sorry. The Cheifs are working out Trenkfjvkjfsb… excuse me. The Chiefs are working out Trent Richardson.
Wildcard’s Pick: Chiefs by 10
Philadelphia Eagles (4-3) at New York Giants (4-3)
Moving on from the Carson Wentz stuff, ignoring the Darren Sproles is underrated argument, I’m going in on this debate: Is the Eagles Defence For Real?
The answer is yes. 13 turnovers are a big part of what they do but they earn those turnovers by taking players out of what they’re intended approach. Fifth best in overall yardage conceded. Just outside the top ten in yards per play against them. Only the Broncos and Bills have more sacks (and they’ve each played an extra game). They gave Roethlisberger, Prescott and Bradford their worst performances of the season. I’d have them top five, along with the Broncos, Vikings, Seahawks and either the Bills or Chiefs. They’re not so flash against the rush but, in this league, average is good enough if you can be great on the other side and their secondary is really great. Malcolm Jenkins, Rodney McLeod and Nolan Carroll all go bloody well. (Also the Giants are the worst rushing team in the league so no worries).
Not so much Nigel Bradham who got snapped with a loaded gun in his luggage at the airport back in the Philly bye week, which he’s pleaded not guilty. Silly bugger. He had a permit (goddammit, America…) but he also assaulted a hotelier at some stage and has a court case in January. But that’s not so bad as Josh Huff, their kick returner, who’s been cut after being pulled over for speeding in Jersey with a gun, a loaded magazine and a joint and is also in trouble for DUI and excessively tinted windows.
Wildcard’s Pick: Eagles by 5
Carolina Panthers (2-5) at Los Angeles Rams (3-4)
He’s not wrong, Cam Newton. That guy takes hits, big ones. He gets absolutely demolished several times a game and the amount of times that defenders get away with it is crazy. Of course he’s gonna get fired up about that – though if I’m being 100 then he should really have left the complaints to his coach so dumb people can’t tell him he’s whinging.
Part of the reason he gets targeted is that he’s a running QB. He leaves the pocket and that makes him easier to get to with a running start for a linebacker. He runs the ball so they treat him like a running back, which is stupid. He’s not one of those and he happens to be a major star in this league, which makes you wonder why the NFL doesn’t have his back for all the millions he helps them make. I’ve even seen written that referees don’t treat him like a superstar… which is a dumb claim. What, Tom Brady gets more flags or something? If he does it’s because he knows how to sell them but mostly I’d guess he just doesn’t get hit like Newton does because he gets the ball out of his hands quickly.
What do that lot have in common? Winston and Palmer are long ball hurlers, so they need to hold on longer in the pocket for receivers to get deep. Then there’s Luck, Bradford and Newton who all play behind terrible offensive lines. That’s where this one swings back from the refs and onto the team because even if they were flagging those hits more, there’s only so much they can do. Draft a couple guards and see if things improve.
Also another reason that Ron Rivera needed to be leading this fight: it’s hard to take a bloke seriously when he’s dressed like Forrest Gump inherited Willy Wonka’s Chocolate Factory and made it his life’s goal to thwart Adam West’s Batman from back in the 60s.
Wildcard’s Pick: Panthers by 7
New Orleans Saints (3-4) at San Francisco 49ers (1-6)
If you wanna make a quick buck, bet on Drew Brees to throw… say, three touchdown passes or more in this one. The Niners don’t leak too many pass yards, they’re sixth best in that regard, believe it or not (presumably coz they don't move the ball on offence so teams don't have far to go). But despite that they’re tied for sixth most passing TDs leaked. You’ll need to take a flutter on something to keep this one interesting, neither are much good but the Saints are a little better. The Niners are the worst team in the NFL that isn’t from Cleveland.
Wildcard’s Pick: Saints by 7
Tennessee Titans (4-4) at San Diego Chargers (3-5)
The Titans have won three of their last four, scoring points in the process and they’ve had an extended break after having the TNF game last week. That’s a solid formula coming up against a team like the Chargers who have this thing about losing dumb games and don’t really get too much of a home field advantage, what with openly trying to relocate and all.
Where this one will be decided is in the run game. The Titans are third in the NFL with 152.2 rush yards per game while the Chargers are sixth with only 86.0 rush yards conceded per game. DeMarco Murray up against Jatavis Brown who’s made 42 tackles this season. Although if we’re talking about the Chargers’ defence, gotta highlight first of all Melvin Ingram who has been a star for them for a couple years now, and also Joey Bosa.
Mate, Joey Bosa. There’s mafia stock running through his blood (no, seriously, there is) and in four games he has four sacks. The dude is rushing bastards off the edge far beyond a rookie capacity. No kidding, man, he’s already flashing something far beyond potential.
Wildcard’s Pick: Chargers by 6
Indianapolis Colts (3-5) at Green Bay Packers (4-3)
Chuck Pagano: “We've played some good football, we've played some not-so-good football. We're more than capable. There's plenty of video evidence there that shows that. Now, it's just a matter of playing four quarters and being more consistent. That's what we're back on the practice field trying to do.”
Pffft. Rodgers is gonna shred that Indy secondary to pieces, come on.
Wildcard’s Pick: Packers by 9
Denver Broncos (6-2) at Oakland Raiders (6-2)
Here’s the game where we find out which one of these teams will take the upper hand in the divisional race and who might have to settle for a wildcard spot – never ideal. Harsh that, but the AFC West is the best division in the NFL. You’ve got these two plus the 5-2 Kansas City Chiefs and then the San Diego Chargers at 3-5 are good enough to beat most teams on their day.
The Raiders hit the bye after this game, they’re the underdogs given they haven’t had a winning season since 2002. Goddamn… although the Cubs won the World Series the other day so what the hell is 14 years? Nothing at all. And the Raiders only have to win three of their last eight to make it happen. They’ll do that for sure, even with some very tough games left. They definitely got the easy games out of the way in the front half and given that all of their wins with the exception of the one in Jacksonville have come by a touchdown or less, that doesn’t bode too well.
But the reason I back them to get to 9-10 wins is that fella Carr that throws the ball for the Raiders. Oh my Lord he is a great player. Watch what he did last week. The Raiders broke the NFL record with 23 penalty flags – costing them 200 yards. For the record, Jameis Winston threw for 180 yards in that game. Nobody should be winning with kind of handicap, constantly shooting themselves in the foot like Plaxico Burress only with an uzi instead of a handgun.
Derek Carr threw 40/59 for 513 yards and there wasn’t a touchdown in the lot of them. He hit Seth Roberts for 41 yards on fourth & 4 for the winning TD with the clock quickly ticking down in overtime.
- Lesson #1: When you have a top level QB, as Carr will soon be, you are going to win a lot of close games.
- Lesson #2: When you can’t keep from conceding penalties then the better teams are gonna punish you.
Raiders remaining games: Broncos (H), Texans (H), Panthers (H), Bills (H), Chiefs (A), Chargers (A), Colts (H), Broncos (A)
The run of home games sounds nice but they’re actually 5-0 on the road. The Broncos have an easier run in and have shown they know how to win. They can frustrate the better teams, they can limit the better players. They ought to win this division by a game or two if all things carry on the same trajectory. The real battle might be the one between the Chiefs and the Raiders for second because the Bills are gonna have their eyes on a wildcard spot and it’d be rude to count out the Bengals just yet.
Wildcard’s Pick: Broncos by 8
Buffalo Bills (4-4) at Seattle Seahawks (4-2-1)
Buffalo fans are drunken weirdos, that’s for sure. But while fighting in the carpark is sorta dumb, throwing prosthetic phalluses onto the field is funny, I’ll give ‘em that.
Neither of these teams are what I’d call trustworthy on offence, though the Seahawks at home usually tips everything in their direction. Can’t see the Bills making the plays to stick with them, though you know with these two that it’ll be close. Also… haha, still laughing at the dildo on the field.
No, because of course he wouldn’t just pick it up.
Would you believe that Russell Wilson has only thrown 5 TD passes this season? Coz that’s the truth. So has Joe Flacco but nobody really cares about the Ravens at the moment. When they figure out the new offence then we’ll see. Tom Brady has a TD% of 9.0%, Roethlisberger of 7.1% and Matt Ryan 6.8%. Wilson’s is 2.1% and Flacco’s 1.6%. 31st and 32nd in the league.
Right now how do we play ourselves out after all that? Best wish Chuck Berry a happy 90th birthday for the other week and get to some strumming along…
Wildcard’s Pick: Seahawks by 3
BYE: Arizona Cardinals (3-4-1), Chicago Bears (2-6), Cincinnati Bengals (3-4-1), Houston Texans (5-3), New England Patriots (7-1), Washington R**skins (4-3-1)
The Wildcard is a staff writer for The Niche Cache. Usually the only swinging dick he sees in the broadcast of a Patriots game belongs to Rob Gronkowski.