The Wildcard’s Premier League Predictions - Week 14

Last Week: 5/10

Season: 65/130

Manchester City vs Chelsea

Sunday 1.30am (NZT)

Yeowwww, she’s a big one right here. It’s the form team of the first month and a half against the form team of the last month and a half. Should be good, aye bro.

So far no manager has figured out how to combat Chelsea’s wingbacks. Victor Moses has gone from a dude who couldn’t get a start on loan at West Ham to being one of the most dangerous wide men in the league, although I think had Danny Rose played for Spurs his pace would have meant Moses being pegged back deeper. City do some odd things with their wide defenders too, remember the tucking into midfield thing? Nobody’s been talking about that or Pep as much now that he’s gone about with some average results.

Guardiola isn’t a manager like Mourinho who’ll alter his team to fit the opposition (which need I remind you worked out about as well as an ejector seat on a helicopter when he played Chelsea), so don’t get overly excited about the tactical oversights. He might look to make a couple personnel changes to that degree though, perhaps Ilkay Gundogan getting a run. One bloke I don’t expect to see is Yaya Toure (ooh, who plays more games this season, Yaya or Bastian?). And as far as tackling the back three goes, I’d lean towards David Silva to pick holes and drag Luiz around with his innate genius for off-ball movement. He doesn’t sprint too often yet he’s always in space.

Patriotic Battle #1: Kevin De Bruyne vs Eden Hazard

Patriotic Battle #2: Fernandinho vs David Luiz

PL Top Scorers Battle: Sergio Aguero vs Diego Costa

Goddamn this is gonna be a bloody ripper of a match, ain’t it? Just because I said that I’m now leaning towards a goalless draw… but a good one. An exciting one.

My vote? I’m ashamed to utter these words but I can’t see past Diego Costa. Plus Conte should cruise to the manager’s award.

Wildcard’s Pick: 0-0

Sunderland vs Leicester City

Sunday 4.00am (NZT)

First it was Chelsea now it’s Leicester. No team has won back to back championships since Manchester United had Cristiano Ronaldo in their ranks but the degree to which the last couple have failed is massive.

We’re only a couple of weeks from the point where Mourinho was sacked last time. That came in mid-December after the 16th game of the campaign – a 2-1 defeat to Leicester in what turned out to be a metaphorical passing of the torch. At that stage their record was as such:

16 GM | 4 W | 3 D | 9 L | 18 GF | 26 GA | -8 GD | 15 PTS

Leicester currently have 13 points with a -6 goal difference so they’re on a similar trajectory but it’ll help when they pump Sunderland this weekend. Sunderland still suck, no amount of Victor Anichebe can change that. Also, 16 games only matters because they immediately got better when Jose left. By the end of things Chelsea had 50 points with a +6 GD and they finished in tenth place. If you ask Claudio Ranieri then he’s convinced that Leicester are in a relegation battle. That’s not true, but then he’s Mr 40 Points so of course he’s saying that. They were the most unconventional title winners ever so for their defence to be unconventional too is only fitting.

Wildcard’s Pick: Leicester 2-0

Tottenham Hotspur vs Swansea City

Sunday 4.00am (NZT)

I kinda said all I had to say on Spurs in a proper feature piece earlier in the week. Here, have a read of this and come back for more.

This is about a perfect follow-up match for Spurs after losing to Chelsea. Home to a team that hasn’t won back to back since May and as incredible as that Palace-Swans game was, it was also a bit of an anomaly. They’re not scoring five against Spurs and they damn sure won’t get away with conceding four against a better team. With that Champions League exit dwelling as well, the Tottenham lads really need a big result to get back on track.

This helps things too:

One thing that they teased in the defeat to Chelsea was Christian Eriksen the goal scorer. While he’s continued to be a star under Pochettino, his output from the left hasn’t been what it was when he was playing down the middle and getting all involved in the goals. Not that he’s worse out there, it’s more that he’s a facilitator instead of a direct creator. He scored 10 goals in 2014-15, only 6 last time but with 16 assists. Would be useful if he found a way to do both, aye? His goal against Chelsea was a beauty.

Wildcard’s Pick: Spurs 2-0

Crystal Palace vs Southampton

Sunday 4.00am (NZT)

Yeah alright then, Southampton were the team to finally beat Arsenal. Not exactly the Arsenal top team in a competition that Wenger’s not often given a proper damn about but still, that counts for something. Turned out to be a pretty handy week for the Saints after also giving Ronald Koeman what-for on the weekend. Two wins, zero goals conceded. That’s Southampton at their best right there.

Ask a Saints fan, they’ll tell you the best thing about beating Koeman was doing so with an academy grad the starring man/child. Josh Sims made his debut against Everton and if it wasn’t for a bit of classic striker poaching on the goal-line by Charlie Austin then he’d have had a goal after 41 seconds of Premier League footy. Instead he got an assist and I’d bet he was cool with that.

It was more than that though. Sims was all over the place, full of energy and constantly involved. Enough that they gave him the Man of the Match award and I wouldn’t even argue (wasn’t the flashiest game, to be fair). Quite the way to start, aye?

Ronald Koeman did great things steadying the Saints over the last two seasons but if there was one complaint it was that he continually overlooked the young guns. Aside from James Ward-Prowse and a spell of Matt Targett while there were injuries, there was hardly any time at all for the emerging academy grads. Harrison Reed had a promising run off the bench one time. Sam Gallagher made the bench but no further. Under Claude Puel we’ve seen Lloyd Isgrove, Olufela Olomola, Sam McQueen, Jake Hesketh and Jack Stephens all given opportunities at times and with Southampton arguably boasting the best English academy record of the last 10-15 seasons, that means plenty.

Crystal Palace are a mess and Alan Pardew is nearing the sack with every passing day. They’ve the makings of a decent team in there but Pards is doing nothing with them. He’s not a manager that seem like he can win back a demoralised dressing room. Hey, he’s done his bit – he’s both played for and managed Palace in FA Cup finals.

Wildcard’s Pick: Southampton 2-1

Stoke City vs Burnley

Sunday 4.00am (NZT)

Well this is hardly blockbuster. Stoke have been pretty crap at the Britannia this campaign with their only league wins coming against Sunderland and Swansea while they most recently went and lost 1-0 to Bournemouth (which they followed by beating Watford on the road by the same score). But Stoke’s home form is only bad. Burnley’s away for is genuinely abysmal. It ain’t helped that they’re the only team that’s yet to play their sixth game away (8 home and 5 away has worked out alright for them) but they have the worst away record in the Premier League with a single point, a single goal scored and 13 conceded. That draw was the 0-0 vs Man Utd where Tom Heaton grew a halo and they probably should have lost 5-0 on the run of play.

Anyway, here’s one for a Stoke hero who never gets to play anymore.

Wildcard’s Pick: Stoke 1-0

West Bromwich Albion vs Watford

Sunday 4.00am (NZT)

Erm, let’s move on shall we?

Wildcard’s Pick: 1-1

West Ham United vs Arsenal

Sunday 6.30am (NZT)

Ah, EFL Cup defeated quarterfinalists meeting up to trade sob stories at the bar. Or maybe not, I got the feeling from those games that neither team was overly devastated to exit at the quarters. West Ham picked most of their top guys but they rotated in a couple key places – specifically the midfield which was awful. The amount of times they lost the ball in bad places or were run clean through was really worrying. I happen to think Mark Noble is pretty overrated but he’s crucial to the Hammers for his defensive work in front of the backline… which, by the way, was the only reason United didn’t score more. Not often you praise a back three that’s on the wrong side of a 4-1 defeat but Reid, Ogbonna and Kouyate were mostly great despite zero protection.

As for the Gunners, a defensive pairing of Gabriel and Holding hardly strikes you as going all in for the win. Even down 2-0 they didn’t show the kind of hustle that suggested they were 100% invested in winning that comp. No worries, it was their first defeat in all competitions since the first day of the season and if Wenger could pick a perfect time to lose this would have been it. Not a meaningful cup and they can refocus now ahead of the Christmas rush.

West Ham are in the middle of a possibly season defining stretch of games. The cup was a giveaway but getting a point at Old Trafford in the league last weekend gives Slaven Bilic some breathing room. Now he hosts Arsenal, a team he beat last year in his first competitive game in charge, and then they’ve a trip to Anfield to play Liverpool. Sneak a win in there and he’ll be fine. Lose both and he might be going up against Burnley the following game with his job in the line.

The good news for the Gunners is that Danny Welbeck is back in training, the bad news is that Santi Cazorla needs surgery and will miss three months. Only the busiest three months of the season too. I know they’ve really improved the depth in their squad at CM but Cazorla is still their best guy. He ties them all together, the rest are mostly defensive minded fellas – I’ll be curious to see if Aaron Ramsey gets time deeper now. Personally, I think he’s a turnstile so I’d advise against it, Arsene.

Wildcard’s Pick: 1-1 (but if Arsenal win 4-0 I won’t be surprised)

Bournemouth vs Liverpool

Monday 2.30am (NZT)

Guys, I have some bad news. The scans are back and they aren’t good, you may want to sit down for this. Okay? Alright then. Philippe Coutinho’s ankle injury is worse than once feared. I know, take a moment if you need one. It’s not as bad as it could be but he won’t play again in 2016. Five weeks, they say. Please, dry your eyes, the most important thing is to carry on and make the most of this out of respect for Coutinho as much as anything. It’s what he would want.

Interesting it looks like we might see Wijnaldum playing in his place a bit more. Either that or Firmino drops deeper and in comes Origi or Sturridge. This is a major factor in my eyes. The scary thing about Liverpool these days is that it’s genuinely hard to see them slipping up against any team outside the top six or seven and when you’re taking maximum points from the others, you only really need to split those top of the table games and Liverpool… already they’ve beaten Arsenal and Chelsea and drawn with Man United and Spurs. However if the Reds’ attacking dynamism is covering their defensive frailties to save them from their biggest weakness, their second biggest weakness is a lack of depth in a couple key areas. How does their midfield fare without Jordan Henderson? What about if Clyne or Milner were injured? And most importantly can they handle losing Coutinho or Firmino? We’re about to find out, mate.

Bournemouth have hit the woodwork 13 times this season, more than any other team. And Jose Mourinho thinks his team is unlucky.

Wildcard’s Pick: Liverpool 2-0

Everton vs Manchester United

Monday 5.00am (NZT)

Always a good one here is the old Wayne Rooney Testimonial fixture – which was actually the real Wayne Rooney Testimonial once. Problem is the big fella is suspended after picking up another yellow midweek so he’s out. No biggie, Wazza may have played his best game in two years in that cup tie vs West Ham but Juan Mata does it week in and week out. Henrikh Mkhitaryan and Anthony Martial might have suggested that they ought to be considered for first XI duties now though Mata’s undroppable on form. Sorry Wayne. Enjoy the hospitality though, lad.

Everton once won six times in a row against Man United but that was between 1892 and 1906 so maybe not the most relevant stat. How about this one instead:

Romelu Lukaku has scored the last nine times he’s played West Ham. For West Brom he once scored a hat-trick off the bench against Manchester United (in Fergie’s Finale, aka 5-5). But playing against ManYoo for Everton he has a record of 0 goals in 7 starts with only a handful of shots on target. Radamel Falcao and Angel Di Maria have each scored more than that in this fixture during that time. Yeeouch.

This is an important game, Everton win and they go ahead of United. Meanwhile United are friggin’ desperate by this time to finally win back to back games again this season for the first time since September and that was a Northampton/Leicester/Zorya treble so yeah. Not really bragging material. They’re playing really good footy though, it’s weird. Gotta figure there’s a little too much firepower in there, especially if Romelu Lukaku really does have an allergic reaction to playing near Phil Jones.

Hey settle down on Bastian Schweinsteiger playing the other day. It was great to see the German getting back on the park but remember it was late in a midweek League Cup game and they were missing both Pogba and Fellaini. Mourinho clearly doesn’t rate Schneiderlin too much (I do, I think he’s a great defensive mid when he actually gets to play) and the fans love Schweiny. Give him a run and it’s an endearing move for all – plus being suspended he didn’t have to be the one to tap him on the shoulder either. And the reason he was on the bench at all? Well with the others missing it was either Bastian or a kid from the youth team and you know how Jose feels about children.

Wildcard’s Pick: Man Utd 2-1

Middlesbrough vs Hull City

Tuesday 9.00am (NZT)

Fun fact, courtesy of PremierLeague.com: “Hull have never won a PL match played on a Monday (W0 D3 L4); Boro have won five of their last seven PL home matches on Mondays (L2).”

Hull have, however, booked a place in the EFL Cup semis for the first ever time where they’ll presumably be annihilated by Man United across two legs. That’s still a fine achievement, though as far as this game goes they’ve played three times on the weekend backing up from EFL Cup games and lost them all. Hull are getting relegated. Boro probably won’t but only as long as they go winning games like this. These are a necessary three points for them.

Here are Hull’s strikers for the weekend:

Abel Hernandez – Probably Injured

Dieumerci Mbokani – Suspended

Will Keane – Long Term Injury

Adama Diomande – Fully Fit

Adama Diomande it is then. 26 years old, born in Norway, has one goal so far in the Premier League this season and tends to find himself switching between playing with concrete boots and the occasional moment of competent hold-up play.

Wildcard’s Pick: Boro 1-0

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Written by Nick Robinson On Tagged ,