Speculating On Anthony Hudson’s Top Secret Plans For Peru
So I was chilling at the airport the other day, trying to hunt down Winston Reid so I could lay a sword at his feet and pledge my eternal allegiances to him like something outta Game of Thrones or whatever… it doesn’t matter. But I rocked up to the lounge a little late and missed him. No worries, maybe next time. However as I slumped dejected into a vacant chair, wishing I could afford to drink literally anything on tap that wasn’t water, I noticed a black manila folder lying on a table. It had a white fern printed on the front and the inside cover read: PROPERTY OF ANTHONY ‘UNCLE TONY’ HUDSON – IF FOUND PLEASE DO NOT PUBLISH IN MAINSTREAM MEDIA.
Well, Huddo, we ain’t mainstream here at TNC, amigo. That’s why we have a Patreon page (and it’d be really cool if you got involved with so we can keep those pesky newspapers at an arm’s length). Thus when I opened it up to discover a selection of heavily annotated notes about the All Whites’ second leg of the World Cup playoff in Lima, the rules of morality stated that one must therefore share such things with the congregation.
No, obviously that’d be stupid. I don’t even own a sword and anyway we all know that Huddo keeps his notes in powerpoint presentations. Regardless, here are five keys to the game that should decide the final qualifier for the 2018 World Cup.
1 – WE DON’T EVEN HAVE TO WIN THIS, MATE
The All Whites don’t need to win this thing. Away goals are our friends and a scoring draw will do the trick. Winning in Lima was always gonna be a tough one, particularly with the All Whites’ horrific record against teams that don’t hail from Oceania. Just to bring that up once again, here it is:
Huddo’s All Whites vs non-OFC: 1 W | 4 D | 10 L | 8 GF | 24 GA | -16 GD
That Peru game in Wellington was only the second clean sheet against a non-OFC team and it continued the 15-game streak of never scoring more than once against such oppos. So that sucks. There are teams much better than Peru in that list (Mexico, Portugal…) but there are also teams much worse (Uzbekistan, Oman, Belarus…).
But there is one aspect of all that which perhaps alters things here: Winston Reid. Understandably Winnie hasn’t played against an Oceania opponent since Hudson took over – why the hell should he? No reason to bother. However he has played in six other games for Hudson and although he wasn’t there for the Oman win, he’s been there for all the other promising results. Scratch the Uzbekistan game which we lost 3-1 in Uncle Tony’s debut and since then Winston’s featured in a 1-1 away to Myanmar, that tour to the USA where NZ lost 2-1 to Mexico and drew 1-1 with America, then the 2-1 loss in Japan and the 0-0 vs Peru in Wellington. When he plays, the All Whites not only concede fewer goals, obviously, but they also seem to score more regularly.
The relevant games are the most recent ones: the USA tour and the last couple matches. Makes you wonder what might have changed if he’d been available for the Confederations Cup but then this playoff is more important than that. Point being that while the All Whites have shown nothing to suggest they know how to win in difficult conditions, they have at least been a very competitive team in the ones which Winston has played in.
Can the All Whites beat Peru in a penalty shootout? Sure, of course they can. Just not sure that it’s a better situation for them than what will have preceded it. Spotties aren’t as much of a lottery as they’re said to be and while Marinovic should be a handy one to have in such an occasion… who aside from Chris Wood do you trust to score? We had enough of a task getting past Papua New Guinea at the Nations Cup, man. Chuck in 50,000 Peru fans going wild and some superiorly skilled opponents and that seems like something best avoided unless the game really gets out of hand.
All of which comes back to the idea that if the AW’s can snatch a goal against a team that didn’t look like they could score a lot of them in the first leg then a 1-1 draw is the way to go. That’s the thing to target. That’s the best way into this sucker.
2 – THE WOODSMAN COMETH
There are a few things that the All Whites could do to alter things up in the second leg. Generally teams are a little more defensive in the away legs – Peru definitely were – although with the All Whites targeting this one they probably won’t change much. The 5-3-2 formation works for them. They used it through the whole Confeds tour and, other than a sneaky 4-4-2 shape in New Caledonia one time, it’s been the same story ever since it emerged as Hudson’s favoured tactic.
And anyway it works. The lack of wingers isn’t ideal for creating chances but in return we get to play with added fluidity up front. There’s a second striker playing off of Woody which allows the team to have a clear focal point to their attacks but also guys with pace and some skill that can drift around into those wide positions. Ideally the wingbacks are getting up there and overlapping too but they tend to have more important jobs to do first. Still, Rojas and Barbarouses are usually keen enough to find those pockets of space and Ryan Thomas is usually good enough to get the ball there.
5-3-2 allows for a solid midfield base with three guys working hard, one of them dropping deep when necessary and pushing forward when possible – that was Clayton Lewis in Wellington. Plus there are always three defenders behind the ball. The players are used to this, the players have trained for this. There’s no chance they switch things up in Lima… at least not to start with.
(Other than whoever makes way for Woody. Kosta is the obvious candidate though don’t be surprised if Lewis starts again and Rojas drops to the bench to come on later as an impact sub).
Good as they were in Welly, the All Whites do need to find another level in Lima if this thing’s gonna happen. Thankfully they already have that next level, his name is Chris Wood. He was too injured to say he was rested for the first 75 mins on the weekend but if that tie was do or die then he’d have played from the beginning. This one is, so he will.
And we’ve already seen from his 15 minutes against Peru (the first time Wood’s ever come off the bench under Huddo) that he’s something the Peruvian defence isn’t fully prepared for. It was a prime opportunity for him to come on in that situation, Ramos & Rodriguez were probably caught a little unawares by him coming into the game late like that. You can’t expect that kind of impact over ninety minutes against good defenders but there are certain things that The Woodsman does which these guys won’t be able to stop. He’s better in the air. He’s physical and he throws himself around. Three or four chances in this game are going to come along because of those advantages… we’ve just gotta hope that he/someone finishes them.
3 – HOW WILL PERU RESPOND?
There’s been talk that Ricardo Gareca might ditch the 4-2-3-1 to bring in a second striker but I don’t really know about that. Sure, he might. But nothing about Peru’s reaction to the draw in New Zealand, Gareca’s especially, suggested that they were getting desperate or that they were worried about their ability to break down the All Whites defence.
Home advantage will bring them a heap of confidence and confidence breeds success. It already sounds like New Zealand footballers have developed a bit of a reputation in Peru for being… well…
Yeah, a bit like tree trunks. Under-skilled, not a lot of movement. Planted in the ground like obstacles. Normally Peru are the team that sits deep against teams like Argentina and Brazil so they know a thing or two about how those tactics are overcome. We may not have seen it in the first leg but Cristian Cueva has immense creative ability and guys like Andre Carillo, Jefferson Farfan and Edison Flores can all play at pace. New Zealand needs to sit back to absorb the blows but sit too far back and they invite the kind of pressure that they won’t be able to deal with.
Raul Ruidiaz is the main candidate to come in either to replace Farfan up front or play alongside him. Yet it seems like with such a defined starting XI that Peru wouldn’t feel the need to get tinkering. More likely is we see the aggression levels rise instead. A few more shots from distance, that’s one thing they should’ve done more in Wellington, if only to show that they can. The All Whites shut down so many Peruvian attacks by pressuring the midfield duo of Yotun and Tapia but we also need to keep in mind that they were allowed to do that to some degree by the slow pace that Peru was playing at.
Gareca will have seen where the weaknesses are. Kip Covley deserves credit for his work down the right – a regular weak spot for the AW’s in big games – doing just enough to repel the advances. You’re kidding if you honestly think that he and Deklan Wynne can withstand the full onslaught though. The more help they require, the more space in the middle.
Plus Peru had a couple chances from set pieces that they know they can trust to repeat. That and the occasional miscommunication at the back for the kiwis. That Reid/Mari one was an anomaly but none of the back three are quite Leonardo Bonucci with the ball at their feet. Even Winston gets sloppy there. He’s immense under pressure (which the other two aren’t so much, naturally) but if Peru start pressuring them from the outside in (so… wingers cutting off the wide men) then that could spell trouble. Or a heap of hasty long balls which’ll come straight back into the danger zone.
Peru aren’t gonna do a lot different though. They’re just gonna do it all better.
4 – WHERE’S THE GOAL COMING FROM?
Fair question. Arguably a fair question for both team, in fact. As far as New Zealand goes it’s a matter of getting Chris Wood and Ryan Thomas on the ball as much as possible. The Peruvian defence is too good to break down by natural means. We don’t have the players for that. But rough them up a little bit, catch them out on the second-phase stuff and there’s the opportunity.
By which I mean the stuff immediately after the aerial contest… because there’s going to be some aerial contesting. That was certainly how the two clearest shots at goal came the other day, Kosta Barbarouses and Ryan Thomas with those long range drives. Chances will be minimal because Peru are going to dominate possession and the ball will therefore spend a long time in the wrong half of the pitch, so clinical finishing is a necessity. We had a couple half-chances in Wellington that didn’t go in. They had more and theirs also didn’t go in. There’s no run-of-play or fair-result going on here – if we can snatch a goal then it doesn’t matter if we only have 20% of the footy. So we just gotta snatch that goal.
Chris Wood’s speciality is to pop up with that one decisive moment in a game in which he’s otherwise frustrated. Yet on the whole he can also be a profligate fellow at times – he scored against Mexico at the Confeds but could have had two or three. That can be the margin between winning and losing and if luck has a lot to do with that then… well, luck has a lot to do with that. Just as it will in Lima. It’s about time one of those Ryan Thomas half-volleys landed in the top corner, right?
5 – THE LAST 10-15 MINUTES…
This is the most fascinating element. Hudson said before the first leg that if the All Whites can still be in the contest coming round the final bend in Lima then they have a plan. Whatever could that plan be? Hmm… there are a few ideas out there.
For one thing we saw a couple times in the Confeds tour that this team has been working on some late-game formational stuff. Chucking on that extra striker at the end and really targeting the penalty area, in particular. Think of Shane Smeltz coming on late against Russia and Portugal. Monty Patterson is another that’s come off the bench to try spark something in other games. Perhaps that means taking off a defender, likely Colvey, and slipping into a back four with Boxall out on the right and a more defensive midfielder like Bill Tuiloma on the pitch to slip back in there when possible.
It’d also mean getting the best headers of a footy forward for set pieces, hence more need for Tui off the bench and you can anticipate he’ll be one of the three subs for sure. Tui is the one midfielder who can genuinely play as a central defender too (sorry Themi, you’re a bit slow mate) and both he and Boxall also possess a mighty long throw… which is almost a better option than a corner when you can hit someone like Smith or Reid at the near post with Chris Wood lingering in the middle for the flick on. Hey, scrappy is fine. Scrappy scores goals.
Other than that we’re probably just talking about dirty long balls. Mourinho-subs-on-Fellaini style of football. They did advertise Hudson as a ‘Young Mourinho’. It’d definitely be in character… just as it would be for what Peru are expecting of us. However ‘expecting’ and ‘being able to deal with’ are two different beasts, my friend. That’s not a sustainable way of playing, which is why we can only afford to go for it at the end, but Desperation Ball does happen to suit a few kiwi football players. Whatever gets us to the World Cup is fine right here.
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