The Wildcard’s Premier League Predictions - Week 37
Last Week: 4/11
Overall: 182/355
Everton v Watford
Saturday 6.45am (NZT)
After a day off following Arsenal’s rather important 2-0 win over Southampton, we now enter some kind of Twilight Zone of football. It’s like stumbling into some eerie fantasy world where everything is just a little too perfect to be true. There are seven consecutive days of Premier League football commencing with this match right here… what strange paradise is this and what’s the catch? Where do the monsters dwell…?
One point in three games for Everton, zero points in three games for Watford. But only Wally Mazzarri is in danger of losing his job. Toffees fans will be happy to know that the Holland gig went to Dick Advocaat too, despite Koeman once saying he’d never be able to turn that one down. Everton are usually quite decent at home too, they’ve gotta be looking at this as a winnable game, meanwhile if Watford sack another manager after a comfortable mid-table finish then they’re idiots.
Ross Barkley is entering a good old fashioned Mexican standoff with the club over his future. With the way he’s been wobbled about by Koeman, whose style he doesn’t really fit, you couldn’t blame him for leaving – it’d more be a matter of how good the suitors would be. Would Chelsea be interested, particularly if Hazard leaves? What about Spurs as an understudy for Eriksen and Alli? Man United as a straight swap for Wayne Rooney even? Or would he have to look at a Southampton or West Brom?
One thing’s for sure, Everton have no worries in the young player stakes. A few academy grads/under 23s to have played Premier League minutes this season:
- Mason Holgate (20)
- Tom Davies (18)
- Matthew Pennington (22)
- Ademola Lookman (19)
- Dominic Calvert-Lewin (20)
- Jonjoe Kenny (20)
Wildcard’s Pick: 2-1 Everton
West Bromwich Albion vs Chelsea
Saturday 7.00am (NZT)
In which Chelsea wins the Premier League, officially, at The Hawthorns. There are prettier places to do the business but Antonio Conte isn’t really the procrastinating type. A win locks it in, book the bus-top parade, although even a draw would only delay the inevitable. Lose to West Brom and they’ll still guarantee the silverware if Spurs do anything but beat Manchester United at White Hart Lane later in the week. That’ll be a Man United team coming off the Europa semis but it’s hard to see Jose tanking two Premier League games in a row, no matter what he says. Also, United’s ‘reserves’ are still outrageously good compared to most other teams.
Chelsea host Watford in their next game. The expected victory here (against a team that just scored its first two goals for five matches in a 2-2 draw last week) means they can lift the trophy at the Bridge, what a day that’ll be. On a Monday night but, you know, the performance means nothing once you’ve already won the damn thing. And let us not overlook that the sooner they confirm the title, the sooner they can turn their focus towards the FA Cup final and joining Man United and Arsenal as the only teams to have multiple League/FA Cup double-winning seasons in their history. That, amigos, is a big flippin’ deal.
League/FA Cup Doubles in English Football:
- Preston North End – 1888-89
- Aston Villa – 1896-97
- Tottenham Hotspur – 1960-61
- Arsenal – 1970-71
- Liverpool – 1985-86
- Manchester United – 1993-94
- Manchester United – 1995-96
- Arsenal – 1997-98
- Manchester United – 1998-99
- Arsenal – 2001-02
- Chelsea – 2009-10
Wildcard’s Pick: 2-0 Chelsea, let’s get it over with
Manchester City vs Leicester City
Saturday 11.30pm (NZT)
Tell you what, that City vs Palace game was immense. Got blown out in the second half and City were in front after like 90 seconds but late in that firstie, for about ten minutes, there was a period where both teams just counter-attacked on top of counter-attacks. It was such a fast-paced game and so of course David Silva was the best player on the park. He’s never not a step ahead, that guy. I’ve said it once, I’ve said it a hundred times, but when City have a genuine central midfield and a new defence next season they’ll be terrifying. Gotta wait to see who they get before making judgements, however even now it’s starting to look like this season wasn’t such a disaster after all. The turning point was probably Kevin De Bruyne hitting the bar with an open goal against Chelsea, woulda put MCI 2-0 up and instead they go on to lose 2-1. A real tear in the time-space continuum there.
As for Leicester, they currently sit ninth and could finish as high as eighth. That’s about how they were projected to do before the season, wasn’t it? Funny how the table never quite tells the full story. Be sure to enjoy the last couple of games for the Foxes of Riyad Mahrez too.
Wildcard’s Pick: 3-1 to Man City
Sunderland vs Swansea City
Sunday 2.00am (NZT)
Technically Watford can still be relegated. They’ve got 40 points, Swansea have 34. But realistically they have an 18 goals better GD and a game in had so we’ll dump them from consideration here. Tough games, they might not get that last point that saves them with trips to Everton and Chelsea this week followed by a hosting of Man City in the last game but it’s just as unlikely that Swansea and Hull also each win out so who cares.
Crystal Palace also need one more win and they play Hull this week before going to Manchester United in the last game. Who… might be playing a reserve team based on reports. Like, an actual reserve team as well, not Phil Jones and Chris Smalling, who would make most other starting XIs in the league, including Man United’s were they less injury-prone (one of them would, anyway, Eric Bailly is pretty superb). Palace are on 38 points and have an even better goal difference than Watford, so even after getting pasted 5-0 by a rampant Man City they still look good.
Which leaves us with Swansea vs Hull, as we figured all along.
- SWANSEA CITY – 35 PTS | 41 GF | 69 GA | -28 GD
- HULL CITY – 34 PTS | 36 GF | 69 GA | -33 GD
Swansea play away to relegated Sunderland and then home to West Brom. Hull are away to Palace and then home to Spurs. Most importantly, Swansea just beat Everton 1-0 with a fantastic backs-to-the-wall performance and Hull fell 2-0 at home to Sunderland. Marco Silva’s unbeaten home record with the club destroyed in one horrific result, Sunderland of all teams! It’s enough to let the Swans climb up out of the relegation zone and with an easier couple games to go, they’ve all the advantage suddenly. It’d be a shame to see either team go down after they’ve shown so much fight to make a run at this but the season doesn’t start in January. You can’t make those early mistakes. At a guess, I’d say Hull are gonna be better positioned to come straight back up but there are no guarantees in the notorious Championship division.
Or Sunderland and Davie Moyes could repeat the dose and cancel out the blow they cast last week by landing an equal one to the chops of Paul Clement. It’s still distantly possible that Swansea and Hull finish on exactly equal levels, goals for and all, which would mean a 39th game playoff. But don’t bother working it out.
Wildcard’s Pick: 1-0 to the Swans
Bournemouth vs Burnley
Sunday 2.00am (NZT)
The other day TNC published this thingamajig about the New Zealand team that’s going to the FIFA U-20 World Cup later this month. We hosted the last one and made the knockouts. It’s a cool tourney to follow full of future, and a few established, pros. Stacked with talent. Well, England made it this time around and here’s the squad:
The FA: “AFC Bournemouth midfielder Lewis Cook and Middlesbrough defender Dael Fry will join the squad in Korea after next weekend's Premier League games. Meanwhile, Patrick Roberts, Axel Tuanzebe and Izzy Brown have been declared unavailable for the trip due to first-team commitments with Celtic, Manchester United and Huddersfield Town respectively.”
Shout out to AFC Bournemouth’s Lewis Cook then. Having one player in that squad is equal to what Manchester United can boast, while it’s more than Manchester City. Everton leads the way with five players while Chelsea have three. Curious stuff.
No Burnley players though. They still need another point for safety but, again, realistically they won’t need to win it themselves, they can wait for Hull or Swansea to drop them instead. Bournemouth also need one more point… to beat their total of 42 points which they achieved last season. Eddie Howe’s got them taking seven points from their last three games and wants them finishing in the top half. I like that motivation. This is also Burnley’s last away game and they’ve taken seven points from 18 away games so far.
Wildcard’s Pick: Bourney 2-0
Middlesbrough vs Southampton
Sunday 2.00am (NZT)
No wins in five for the Saints now, only West Brom’s six without a win is a longer active streak. Talk about stumbling towards the finish line, both those teams were sitting happily in the top half a month ago and now they’ve slipped right back into the murk. It doesn’t really matter other than some bragging rights and a bit of extra cash but it’s still a little concerning.
Then again, you’d rather be Southampton than Middlesbrough. Sunderland have roughly three players worth signing, as decided last week. Boro have a few more. Local hero (and nephew of the chairman) Ben Gibson is easily PL quality, he’d fit right in on Southampton actually. George Friend and Adam Clayton are a bit older but would be handy cheap squad blokes. Adam Forshaw can play. Martin de Roon, Victor Valdes and Gaston Ramirez are all worth a home somewhere. But with Boro’s disappointing campaign almost completely failing to showcase the players that got them up into the top division, there might not be too many takers. Oh well.
Wildcard’s Pick: 0-0
Stoke City v Arsenal
Sunday 4.30am (NZT)
You cannot watch that goal back and not gasp just a little bit too loud. It’s perfect. That right there, like the best moments of the Beautiful Game, is art. How good was Bergkamp? This good…
Alexis Sanchez is pretty good too though and his fine lookin’ goal against Southampton immediately shut down the criticism that he might’ve otherwise gotten (had Arsenal not won) for being entirely shut down by a rookie in Axel Tuanzebe against ManU. Of course the man-marking deal that Jose set up on Sanchez and Ozil (why bother?) was a tactical mishap beyond that because it meant their wide forwards (Mkhi and Mata) had to do so much defending against the Gunners wingbacks.
That formation, it’s starting to flourish beyond just suiting the three guys at the back. It suits them obviously because other than Koscielny (and maybe Mustafi) they don’t really have the discipline to play in a duo and they don’t have the midfield to cover them. That was the reason Francis Coquelin kept playing when he offers nothing more than hard defensive work. But with the extra CB their midfield is more freed. Aaron Ramsey can play there and his turnstile defending is irrelevant. He can make those late runs forward and be an option there, which he did great against Man Utd, and Granit Xhaka still looked good playing next to him despite the lack of defence that Ramsey offers. That could be a problem against other teams, Chelsea and Liverpool being obvious midfield hounds, but it killed Jose Mourinho.
Plus Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain might finally have found a place as a wingback. Or not, Hector Bellerin is better and The Ox probably still wants to play further forward and it sounds like he’s willing to risk playing for a weaker team to get it done on the regular. Fair play to him. Find those greener pastures, bro.
The main thing here is that Arsenal, despite the hell-hole they found themselves in a few weeks ago, are suddenly a major player in the battle for fourth again. Surely not, not again another year in a row. Please don’t let this happen. At this rate even some Arsenal fans must be kinda hoping they miss out for that shakeup they need. Is a change in formation really enough?
Three points behind City, four behind Liverpool but with a game in hand. Their last three games are here at Stoke then home to Sunderland and Everton. All winnable, which means that Liverpool and City better win out themselves or else yikes. As for Man United, they’re probably done now but if they win the Europa League then they don’t even have to qualify for the Champions League like fourth place does. Straight into the group stage with a trophy and a game against either Real Madrid or Juventus. That’s waaay better than fourth place.
Wildcard’s Pick: Gunners 2-1
Crystal Palace v Hull City
Sunday 11.00pm (NZT)
Already talked about the relegation stuff. This game is gonna be massively dependant on what happens between Sunderland and Swansea the day before, mental focus and everything. Instead, here are some thoughts about the Champions League final…
PLEASE GOD, IF YOU’RE LISTENING, DON’T LET REAL MADRID WIN IT AGAIN. PLEASE, PLEASE, PLEASE, PRETTY PLEASE!
Wildcard’s Pick: 1-1
West Ham United vs Liverpool
Monday 1.15am (NZT)
They beat Spurs, so West Ham presumably now reckon they’ll never lose again. That’s what they normally do after a big result. Three clean sheets in a row and Liverpool haven’t exactly been the highest scoring team the last few games. One goal in their last 180 minutes. But… this is West Ham. And Liverpool know they cannot afford another slip up, two more games in their season and a pair of wins gets them into the Champions League. Arsenal are hot on their heels. Another dry pitch fiasco like against Southampton (oh man was that boring) and the whole season could be ruined.
Jurgen Klopp: “The pitch was really dry today. We gave it all the water we had but after 15 minutes it was really dry again with the wind. It was difficult.”
As is usually the case here, that quotes taken out of context a bit, he didn’t use it like an excuse for the performance or anything. But it’s funny so it stays. Shot, Jurgen.
The Reds also play Middlesbrough in their final game so they shouldn’t concede another goal this season, at least. Although they also might not score another one. Gotta treat ‘em both like Cup Finals now and that could mean risking Adam Lallana or even potentially Jordan Henderson (who hasn’t played since February). It’s exciting stuff because one of Man City, Liverpool or Arsenal is gonna miss out on Champions League football and frankly none of them are in a position to accept that.
James Milner missed a penalty. That is all.
Wildcard’s Pick: 1-0 Liverpool
Tottenham Hotspur vs Manchester United
Monday 3.30am (NZT)
Amidst the Mourinho Depression at Man United what they really need is this guy to come back, even if just as a motivational speaker. He makes you wanna smile as opposed to Mourinho who is now saying if his team fails to make the UCL then it’s because they aren’t good enough to be there. I get what he’s saying, effectively the message is: the table don’t lie. But those poor results aren’t the players fault. It’s the fault of the manager, the one who sets them up to draw ten home games in a single Premier League season (at Old Trafford!) and also, to be fair, the two before him who put them in this position to start with.
Anyway, here’s Patrice Evra being completely magnificent and ebullient.
This game might not matter for Spurs and it already doesn’t matter for Man United. Dunno what to think of that, really, but when Spurs are saying goodbye to White Hart Lane then I’ve gotta lean on the side of emotion. Manchester United played the final home game at a historic ground last season too and it didn’t exactly go as planned. And that was with fourth place still a relevant thing to play for. Winston Reid with the late winner there.
Ah the memories. So many memories. In particular, I’m definitely gonna miss the memories. At least Spurs are sort of returning to the same place after their stint at Wembley, West Ham found themselves in a large echo chamber and then they sold the only player loud enough to make the place, y’know, echo.
Spurs are better than United and they have way more reason to finish strongly. People forget they came third last season, not second. Get points here or if City don’t win against Leicester and that’s second place guaranteed with two games to spare. If United turn up unfocussed or excessively defensive like Mourinho had them against Arsenal then they could roll them with ease. That’d be a helluva way to go out, aye?
Wildcard’s Pick: 2-0 to Spurs
Chelsea vs Watford
Tuesday 7.00am (NZT)
I might not bother with a full prediction column next week if most of the things that clubs are fighting for are already decided, I might just squeeze the picks into another piece instead. I wrote a West Ham thing the other day, was gonna do a St Totteringham’s Day thing but it almost came as an anti-climax. We’ll see how it goes. The temptation is to pick Chelsea to immediately lose after securing the title but I think they’ll give a good enough one for the home fans before they hand out the medals and lift the trophy. There are a few players for Chelsea who could be leaving after the season, lucky they’ve got the FA Cup Final to say their farewells at.
Wildcard’s Pick: 1-0 to Chelsea
Arsenal vs Sunderland
Wednesday 6.45am (NZT)
Anyone rather just watch more Dennis Bergkamp goals than read any more words about Arsenal or Sunderland? Yeah, me too.
Wildcard’s Pick: Arsenal 3-0
Manchester City vs West Bromwich Albion
Wednesday 7.00am (NZT)
Southampton v Manchester United
Thursday 6.45am (NZT)
Come on, mate. We’re already in extra time here and I ain’t got the patience to keep coming up with stuff to say when three of these four teams have already checked out of the Premier League hotel for the season. Fare thee well, faithful squires. Domestic and European Cup Finals await us!
Wildcard’s Pick: 1-0 to City and 0-0 in the other one
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