Two games into the Mark Rudan era and the Welly Nix are still undefeated… as long as you ignore the FFA Cup debacle. But the FFA Cup game came too early for a new coach and largely a new squad. Rudan even said himself that they hadn’t gotten deep enough into preseason to work on how they planned to score goals and all that. They’d only gotten as far as defensive shape, which to be fair was pretty solid in that game.

Two proper games in now, a 2-1 win at home against Newcastle and a 0-0 draw away to Brisbane, and we’re getting a much better idea of what Mark Rudan wants this side to look like. We’ve already had a look at the first game and that’s the initial outline of the picture that’s being painted. And I’m not talking about the tough bastards thing. The Nix played hard and picked up four yellows, clinging on to the win at the end there, sure. Sweet as. But those are things to do with attitude and commitment, two major focuses for Mark Rudan as Nix gaffer but also kinda independent of what the team is actually trying to play like. Roy Krishna dashing back like forty metres to chop a guy down and earn a booking but end a dangerous counter attack… that’s something your on-field leaders are going to do regardless of whether you’ve had 20% of possession or 80%. What I’m getting at here is the tactical approach.

Against the Jets, the Nix had 40% of possession at home. Not unexpected against a Newcastle team that likes the ball (nor is it unexpected in a league in which most teams love to hog possession, it’s basically only the Nix and the Mariners who prefer to stand back – not coincidentally the two worst teams of last season). The Nix also had a pretty shocking 59.4% passing accuracy… which dropped to 51.3% in the Newcastle half… but that’s all part of the process. This is a team that wants to exploit its pace up top which means quick releases from midfield and long balls and crosses tend to shrink those numbers. Plus, you know, they’re not playing against the computer here, there’s an opposition team trying to take that ball off them at any opportunity. Hence why that game was only an outline.

Against the Roar we saw a remarkably similar possession stat, also around 40%, however with much better passing accuracy (68.0% all up, 58.6% in the oppo half). Still not ideal but then lesson number one is that this team is not one that’ll settle for the simple pass to hold possession. They want to look for the quick strike if they can, get Roy Krishna on the ball before the defence can get set.

One reason for the improved accuracy in Brizzy though was Alex Rufer, who was much better looking to keep things simple in game two. His personal passing accuracy went from 55.6% to 80.8%, which is crazy. Must’ve been Matty Ridenton’s attention throwing him off before. If/when Michal Kopczynski supersedes him in that second CM role you’d figure he’ll bring more clinical distribution to the role… but if Rufer keeps up this level of improvement then Kopa might have to get used to playing with the WeeNix.

Steven Taylor missed a sitter a couple minutes into the game at Suncorp which ended up being kinda crucial. Wide open at the far post after a Tom Doyle shot had been parried into his path, he shaved it off his ankle and into the post. The thing about early chances is they don’t seem to matter as much in the moment because you just assume another one will come along in no time. They don’t always do that. The Nix struggled to create much during the game but a comprehensive defensive effort earned a point away from home, a point that’s very valuable. Brisbane have had issues turning possession into goals at the start of this season and the Nix held them out for the clean sheet that they should’ve had a week earlier.

But they’ve also only scored twice and they were an own goal and the remains of a missed penalty. If the four-point start to life under Mark Rudan has been mostly pleasing, it’s also shielding the fact that this team looks like it doesn’t know how to score goals.

Eleven shots in each game, three of those shots on target in each game. Sarpreet Singh has six of them and not one on target, which is weird for a bloke whose wand of a left foot is what earned him his permanent spot in the first team. David Williams is an absolute workhorse but he didn’t even have a shot against Brisbane. Roy Krishna is the bloke the Nix very clearly rely on for basically all their goals and he’s been sharp so far, four shots on target from five attempts (that presumably includes the penalty miss though, I’m taking this from A-League.com.au). Pure shots on target can be misleading, a whack off the crossbar is a lot closer to being a goal than a tame header straight at the keeper, but read that as Roy getting into dangerous positions more than anything. He looks likely. Nobody else really has.

Is that a trend or just a blip though? Well, Sarpreet Singh you can trust to curl one into the top corner soon enough, that’s what he does. But they’re also not set up to do massive damage even at the best of times. They’ve been playing in a 5-2-1-2 formation which puts huge pressure on three players to provide the bulk of the creativity so that the rest can ensure they keep their structure at the back, always ready for the counter. Alex Rufer and Mandi have done pretty well in midfield so far but they probably aren’t providing many assists from where they are (other than maybe Roof’s corner kicks). These are the average positions from the Newcastle game; Nix in light blue, Rufer is #14 and Mandi is #4.

They’re immaculately placed to repel the Jets, Mandi doing a job on Ronnie Vargas (#10) while the back three kept things tight with the Jets attackers. Yet they’re set pretty deep there. I s’pose they have to be, to a degree, if they’re going drag the oppo defence forward and give Krishna space to run into behind. As for that attacking trio, the whole average position idea is silly when you’ve got guys drifting wide and swapping positions. They’re all represented in the middle because they were all everywhere. Everywhere except the middle.

Only 20.9% of the Nix’s attacks came through the central passage in the Jets game and that number was a minimal 16.1% against the Roar, with a huge trend towards the wings – either from Krishna/Williams/Singh dashing out there looking for the ball or from the wingbacks gassing it up there. Libby Cacace’s left flank has been responsible for nearly half the Nix’s attacking moves in both games.

This screenshot from the Brisbane game is quite a common occurrence. The forwards and midfield all pushing left for the overload. This particular move ends with Mandi trying to shake it wide to Louis Fenton who is all alone on the other side of the field and getting fouled in the works.

That’s gotta be a deliberate tactic from Rudan. He’s way too focussed on structure and role to let everyone just hang out there on one side. The Roar aren’t chasing them out so you’re guaranteed an open man somewhere – David Williams is getting into space here and Sarpreet Singh could easily shake his fella. So it’s all about what you do with it. Players like Singh, Krishna and Mandi in particular have got the ability to string a couple passes together here and create a chance to shoot… although this is one area where Mitch Nichols would come in handier, probably in place of Alex Rufer.

It’s also an indication of an extremely fluid shape on attack. Not uncommon that, you keep a strict shape on defence but let your forwards unleash their creative sides with freedom to roam. Very Mourinho-esque, one might say. The Jose Mourinho of the good old days of course. Again, this means big responsibility on a few main folks to provide most of the imagination, although Rudes hasn’t been blind to some of the alternative weaponry that he’s got in his squad and that’s why set pieces are gonna be massive for the Nix.

Andrew Durante doesn’t score many goals but he does win a lot of headers. The sight of him nodding one back across the far post from a corner/free kick is hardly rare. Steven Taylor legit should be scoring five goals this season with his aerial dominance, as well as his knowledge of the Premier League dark arts. And Tom Doyle always pops up with a few strikes.

Here’s an example of a Welly Nix corner kick…

You’ve got those three centrebacks all making runs to attack the ball being swung in by Sarpreet Singh. Max Burgess is standing on the keeper being a nuisance, Roy Krishna is kinda standing there doing nothing, presumably waiting for the second phase, while Rufer is hovering on the edge of the box. There’s nothing deceptive about where the CBs run. Dura goes near post, Taylor and Doyle both attack the cross towards the middle (in the end the keeper claims it as Taylor appeals for a penalty after getting an arm across him).

All they’re trying to do is use their superior ability in the air to get a header on target and we’ve seen similar approaches from free kicks too. Meanwhile Mandi, Fenton and Cacace are hanging back to protect the defence with all three CBs committed forward. A little nerve-wracking having that trio holding fort but I guess Rudan reckons the positives outweigh the negatives.

Now, I was going to take a peek at the defensive shape as well but I’d rather not cram another 1500 words into this bad boy so that can be part two, keep ‘em peeled. Obviously we’re only two games into a long season and there’ll be things that they’re working on which we haven’t seen yet. I just wanted to do a little focussing on the trends of these first couple games as an indication of where this team is heading, what they’re trying to do, and what priorities Mark Rudan is bringing to the table. Next time: the devious defence.

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