The Premmy Files: Grand Final Preview
Auckland City vs Team Wellington
Sunday 4.35pm at North Harbour Stadium
Auckland City Predicted XI: Zubikarai / Hudson-Wihongi, Bilen, Berlanga, Morgan / Howieson, Riera, Tavano / Tade, Lea’alafa, McCowatt
Team Wellington Predicted XI: Basalaj / Gulley, Hilliar, Kayara / Sinclair, Ilich, Barcia, Molloy / Bevin, Allen, Hailemariam
It’s been a funky old season but we’ve ended up exactly where we figured we always would, with the two best teams going head to head in the grand final. Auckland City on the back of a fifth straight Premiership league title up against Team Wellington looking for a third straight championship victory. Predictable? Perhaps. But what comes next is anyone’s guess.
Auckland City have dominated this comp since its inception yet in recent years they’ve had their troubles with Team Wellington. Losing the last two grand finals to their mates from the capital and going winless in both regular season games this term sums that one up nicely. The season began with Team Welly hosting ACFC and putting three past them for a decisive win. Scott Hilliar and Joel Stevens each scored after an own goal had cancelled out Kris Bright’s early strike. Seems like so long ago, Bright barely featured for City this season (injuries didn’t help) while Stevens left midway through and is playing in Sweden now, where the season is just kicking off. Cole Peverley played for the Tee Dubs that day. Erik Panzer and Tom Jackson too. Auckland City had Liam Graham in the starting team and brought Daewook Kim off the bench.
Times have changed… but not that much. These were still the two strongest teams across the whole campaign, even after a slip up with regos cost ACFC a default win vs Tasman and Team Welly survived getting swept by Eastern Suburbs to snatch second place ahead of them (and Canterbury) in the final round. Each then did the business in the semis and here we are, ready to roll.
City were too good for Suburbs from the start last week, although it didn’t help that their opponents were without a few of their best players. As such Danny Hay’s lot sat pretty deep and allowed Auckland City to control possession and eventually they made that count. Then once Suburbs had to throw caution to the wind, they blitzed them for a few quick goals and 4-0 win. Comprehensive, even if the game was tougher than it sounds. It was sorta the opposite from Team Wellington who survived some difficult early stuff from Canterbury United before turning it up to eleven and winning the thing 1-0. Didn’t take their chances to kill the game off and it could’ve gotten ugly because of that but no worries. It all worked out and they deserved to make it through.
So what to expect on Sunday? Not a lot of goals, that’s for sure. Both of these teams are capable of scoring them in bulk but they’ve also got a couple magnificent defences and defence tends to take priority in grand finals. You may have heard about this already but Enaut Zubikarai in goal for Aux has gone 1097 minutes without conceding in all competitions, keeping 12 clean sheets on the trot – nine of them in Premiership action. Frankly, they look impenetrable. They’re so well organised and they keep the ball for so damned long you barely get a pop. They just don’t allow many dangerous shots against them and that’s the secret.
But Team Welly don’t exactly offer free shipping either. Last week in the semi was only their fourth clean sheet of the whole season (ACFC have kept 13) but you can add in nine games when they only leaked one to that and it’s not too far off. A couple stingy teams with big game experience… it’ll be tough to separate them.
Often these games come down to who can grasp those key moments. Yet if these teams each have a weakness then it’s arguably the same one – finishing. City relied on their killer defence for a series of 1-0 wins down the stretch which could have easily gone the same way as their semi with a little more clinical edge – although that semi suggested that they’re good for it when they turn it all the way on. Similarly Team Wellington could’ve won 4-0 last week with better luck and precision. It wasn’t a game that deserved a 4-0 scoreline but neither was ACFC’s semi. In Ross Allen they have the best finisher in this game but he was rusty last week (understandably) having missed a couple games with illness. He’s the sort of player that could score a ripper of a half-chance to decide the game if he’s at his peak on Sunday.
Auckland City don’t have that one sharpshooter but they have a forward trio who will overwhelm you with tricky shots and ambitious passing moves in that attacking third. They’re not afraid to take a risk, especially Emiliano Tade, knowing that eventually it’s gonna pay off. Welly got off lightly a couples times from those positions against the Dragons (thinking specifically of two shots from Nakamura and another from Ogilvie). Auckland City will make you suffer for those.
Team Wellington will welcome back captain Justin Gulley after his All White sojourn, which gets that defence back at full capacity. It’s bloody hard to drop Roy Kayara after last week’s performance which might make Taylor Schrijvers the unlucky bugger to miss out, but Gulley and Scott Hilliar are locked and loaded, as is Scott Basalaj in defence behind them. Probably gonna have Jack-Henry Sinclair and Eric Molloy as a couple very attacking wingbacks and the Marios in the middle. Ilich and Barcia were both wonderful against Canterbury. Then the top three… got to imagine they stick with Nate Hailemariam after how well he played last week and he’ll be joined by Allen and Andy Bevin. Really well balanced team and one capable of frustrating the ACFC midfield like none other in this league. Plus that leaves you Hamish Watson and Angus Kilkolly on the bench for some serious impact if needed.
City’s lineup picks itself, other than the fullbacks. Those two are up in the air, Ramon Tribulietx has rotated them all season so take your pick from Dan Morgan, Takuya Iwata, Te Atawhai Hudson-Wihongi, Alfie Rogers or Darren White. Otherwise it’s Zubikarai in goal with Mario Bilen and Angel Berlanga in defence (good chance that TAHW plays ahead of Bilen however), a midfield trio of Cam Howieson (also returning from AWs duty), Fab Tavano and Albert Riera with McCowatt, Lea’alafa and Tade up topskees.
What’s interesting is that doesn’t leave a massive amount of continuity between this grand final and last season’s grand final. City will still have most of their starters from twelve months ago (other than Ryan de Vries and Marko Dordevic) but are likely to make four of five changes to that team and will have an entirely different bench other than Reid Drake. Meanwhile Team Wellington have lost Bill Robertson, Leonardo Villa, Niko Kirwan, Ben Harris and Josh Margetts plus Tom Jackson is injured, all having started the 2017 GF. Probably argue they’ve both improved though, to be fair.
This may be the grand final but it won’t be the last time they play each other soon. The OFC Champions League has them on a crash course which’ll mean two more clashes in the coming weeks, both teams likely to prefer Club World Cup qualification with all that entails if they had to choose. Which they don’t, so it’s irrelevant. Especially when Team Wellington have upset Auckland City in each of the last two seasons at this hurdle and have only gone and gotten better in the last year. It was a 0-0 draw when they played in Auckland a couple months ago and it wouldn’t be a stunner if this went to penalties, honestly.
The only stink note is that the game’s taking place at North Harbour Stadium, which is a trash heap with no parking and is gonna give an empty echo to the biggest game of domestic football in Aotearoa for 2018. Don’t see what’s wrong with Kiwitea Street, at least until NZ Football (and Sky TV, who are too busy losing the Rugby World Cup rights at the moment) put in the marketing effort to justify playing in a bigger stadium (but not that one). This isn’t Field of Dreams, right? You want a crowd then you have to get out there and find one. This has been the best season yet of this competition but unfortunately the league has an image problem, particularly among established footy people which is a damn shame. You either support the league or you stay outta the way. Criticising it only makes you look like a dick. The Niche Cache supports it. (And you can support The Niche Cache by slapping an ad! Or jumping on Patreon!). Bloody lovely. Hey, here’s to a good game on the weekend.
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