The Case For And Against England At This World Cup
There’s not much like a 6-1 win to get people all hot and bothered about a football team’s chances of winning the World Cup. Sure did the trick for Germany last time, in fact they even scored a seventh, granted that was in the semi-finals against the hosts and favourites and not a group stage game against a rather poor Panama side… BUT IT DOESN’T MATTER BECAUSE FOOTBALL’S COMING HOME!
Premature? Oh without a doubt. All the lead up to this tournament, England fans were talking up their team by talking down their expectations. A shifty old move, putting the excuses out there in the open before things started – they’re too young, inexperienced, etc. – so that the usually unbearable weight of pressure on extremely talented but sub-world class players doesn’t kill them… then use those inverted expectations as a way of putting expectations on them.
When the fourth goal went in against Panama it was the first time that England has scored four times in a World Cup finals match since the actual final in 1966. They went on to score six. That’s more than in the previous two World Cups put together. Harry Kane bagged a hat-trick to go top of the Golden Boot standings exactly two-thirds through the group stage, two penalties and a fluke of a deflection but never mind that, while Jesse Lingard scored a screamer from outside the box and John Stones popped up with a couple set piece headers. Excellent stuff and the Three Lions thoroughly dominated this one.
And thus, people of the jury of public perception, I now present to you… the case for and against England as legitimate World Cup champion threats.
FOR – A Genuine Goal-Scoring Striker
It’s tough to break down those lesser teams at a tournament like this, England learned that full well when it took until your half-time coffee was almost frozen stiff before they grabbed the winner against Tunisia. And who was it that came to his nation’s aid at the crucial moment? Harry Kane, of course. The captain and talisman. He’s not a striker who is going to score every shot, he’s very much one who prefers to shoot in volume and then score in volume but not as much volume as he shoots in. His strike-rate per shot isn’t great, in other words. But he’s a focal point and a poacher which makes him hugely useful at a World Cup.
Because if you think breaking down the lesser teams is tough, wait until England have to try sneak a winner against the best of them in the knockouts. Get Harry Hotspur his five shots per game, he’ll score you at least one and that’s as close to a guarantee as you can get at this level. I mean, damn, just look at those two penalty strikes. Modern football trended away from centre forwards with the false nine experience for a while there but looking at the success of Kane, Romelu Lukaku, Cristiano Ronaldo… hell, even Diego Costa is getting in on it… coupled with the struggles of Germany, Argentina and France (when Olly Giroud’s not out there) and it seems that the goal-scoring striker is back in fashion in 2018.
And England’s got one.
AGAINST – It’s Only Panama
Honestly, Panama were shocking. They came out trying to play aggressively and defend in numbers but ruined those chances by conceding from a set piece and then giving away a penalty. There went their game plan and the World Cup debutants proceeded to implode for the rest of the half. Another penalty conceded, countless fouls, no sign of putting England’s defence under any pressure… they were bad. (Best part of that is they qualified ahead of USA, which makes the USA look even more abysmal for missing out on Russia 2018 in the first place). Panama are just happy to be here and shout out to them for that.
But yeah, Panama also lost 3-0 to Belgium and Tunisia are good enough to put a couple past them too. This is one of the weakest teams at the tournament (and a good warning against 48 teams in 2026) and a lot of teams could have done what England did to them. Then also considering how bad Panama were, the fact that the second half was a 1-1 draw also then reflects sloppily… though to be fair England had packed it in and gone home by then.
FOR – Gareth Southgate, No Really!
It was a coaching appointment that inspired basically nobody but Southgate’s experience with the English youth teams is already paying off with the team chemistry while it turns out he’s a rather savvy tactician at the same time… who saw that coming? The inclusion of Kieran Trippier on the right has been very clever, his crossing and overlapping runs being one of their best sources of attacks. Having Kyle Walker therefore playing in a back three sounded stupid at first but then you watch him play and his eye for a pass from the back’s been super useful, not to mention his speed and composure. Southgate’s still got some issues with his forward rotations – Deli and Raheem Sterling haven’t played well enough yet that Marcus Rashford sitting on the bench is beyond debate – however it’s so far so good on the tactical front. England’s got a team that’s being allowed to take chances and play positively. The goals are flowing and the fans are loving it. After all, how can you not be inspired by a perfectly fitted waistcoat?
AGAINST – No Correlation Between Big Group Stage Wins and Lifting Trophy
Okay so checking up on the record books the biggest ever margin of victory at a World Cup was nine goals, which has been done three times. Yugoslavia 9-0 Zaire (1974), Hungary 9-0 South Korea (1954) and Hungary 10-1 El Salvador (1982). Neither of those teams has ever won a World Cup. Sweden beat Cuba 8-0 in 1938 and didn’t win, same goes for Germany 8-0 Saudi Arabia in 2002. Hungary were at least genuine contenders, that 1954 side lost to West Germany in the final in a bit of an upset, while Germany in 2002 were also beaten finalists. Nobody’s got time to scroll through the full record books but suffice to say that the statties prove it: one group stage thrashing does not a world champion make.
FOR – Attacking Flair From All Angles
Marcus Rashford can’t even get in the starting line-up at the moment, that’s how much Gazza’s got to work with here. Harry Kane is a lock, we’ve already spoken about him. But surrounding him is a hefty bundle of pace, skill, confidence and trickery. All young dudes so their reputations don’t quite run parallel with certain England squads of the past but in ten years we’ll realise that this squad was something special. Raheem Sterling’s been immense since he moved to Man City. Dele is coming off a case of second album syndrome but still brings those incisive moments. Ruben Loftus-Cheek spent the last few months at Crystal Palace living up to the hype he had a few years ago (fingers crossed he never goes back to Chelsea), it’s early for him but it’s not undeserved. Or how about Jesse Lingard who has improved more over the last two years than arguably any player in the Premier League? You’d never have believed back then that he’d ever be such a polished and intelligent force but he is. Chuck in the tracer bullet that is Jamie Vardy off the bench along with the aforementioned Marcus Rashford, maybe even a little Danny Welbeck if necessary and ka-ching.
AGAINST – Still Got Them Vulnerabilities At The Back
Ask around and you’ll hear a fair few people admit that they don’t fully trust a back three of Harry Maguire, John Stones and Kyle Walker. It’s a trio that’s got a mistake or three in them, that’s for sure. Even against Panama there were concerning moments where they pushed a pass or lingered too long on the ball and lost possession. The goal they conceded wasn’t great either, coming from a set piece. The back three are better than they’re getting credit for but, yeah, it only takes that one shocking moment to potentially unravel all the good work. Then you’ve also got the decidedly unconvincing Jordan Henderson in the middle whose nuggety work as a midfield terrier is usually worth a yellow card or two and he’s hardly Andres Iniesta with the ball at his feet either... but the backup option is Eric Dier so Hendo it remains. Jordan Pickford’s all good in goal, at least.
FOR – The Draw’s Being Very Kind
Obviously nobody wins the World Cup by avoiding the best teams, you’ve got to beat the best to be the best. But it helps if you don’t have to beat as many. England’s group has given them two very winnable games against Tunisia and Panama – job done – which means the finale against Belgium is only for seeding. They’ll play either Senegal, Colombia or Japan in the round of 16 depending on how things shape up in the last game and should fancy themselves to beat any of them. They might then get Brazil or Germany in the quarters… or they might get lucky and end up on the opposite side to both and play Switzerland or Mexico. Win that one (disclaimer: there are no easy knockout games) and Harry Kane and company are into the semis where it’s anyone’s guess.
AGAINST – Come On, This Is England We’re Talking About
I mean, let’s be honest. Soon enough the Three Lions will stumble into a penalty shootout and they can’t just get Harry Kane to take all five of them. We know how this story is going to end.
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