France, Belgium, England or Croatia – One Of These Nations Is Going To Win The World Cup
The big names started falling even before the World Cup started. The Netherlands fell in qualifying, failing to progress ahead of France or Sweden in their group. Sweden then went one better after that and eliminated Italy in the playoffs. Meanwhile in South America, defeat to Brazil in the final game, along with other results, doomed Chile to miss out altogether as well. The World Cup proper wasn’t much kinder. Germany fell in the groups while Portugal, Argentina, Spain and Colombia all failed to make it beyond the round of 16. Brazil lost to Belgium in the quarters. Favourites falling like dice in an underground casino.
Which has us at the point where there are only two previous World Cup titles between the four remaining teams. France has won it once, England has won it once. Croatia and Belgium have never before gone beyond the semis.
This is pretty rare in the ol’ FIFA showcase. When Germany played Brazil in the semi-finals of the 2014 edition they represented the legacy of eight previous World Champion teams, with Germany soon to add a ninth between them. Not to mention Argentina in the other semi with their two past wins. In 2010 there were two finalists in Spain and Holland who’d never won before but the other two semi-finalists were Uruguay (2) and Germany (3). 2006 had seven champs, 2002 also had seven. 1998 was pretty funky with only one past winner but it was Brazil who’d already won four at that point. Six of them in 1994. Eight in 1990. Only three in 1986 and four in 1982. Five in 1978.
By this point we’re hitting a shrinking number of tournaments but you get the point. It’s not all that rare to see teams like Croatia or Belgium in the semis, they’ve both done it before. Turkey and South Korea made the semis in 2002 after all. Those cheeky underdogs sometimes get on a run or they get a decent draw or whatever. But usually there’s a Brazil or Germany that you’ve gotta get through on the way. In fact a better way of expressing this might be with the stat that this is the first time in the history of the competition that none of Brazil, Germany, Italy or Argentina have made the semi-finals.
And that seems to have left a fair few people feeling shell-shocked over it all. Where are all the big teams? What’s going on when England, Belgium, Croatia and France are about to supply our next World Champion? I mean, it’s not normal for sure. But that doesn’t mean that any of this quartet wouldn’t be a worthy champion, you don’t win the World Cup by accident. If other teams fall along the way then that’s their failing, not England’s or Croatia’s. This is a Last Team Standing affair and it always has been.
If the final four feels underwhelming then just go with it for the next week and see how you feel afterwards. Very few teams have ever won the World Cup by dominating from start to finish. Often teams start slow and build up while some just grind the whole way. Football’s too strong and the prize too big for any team to stroll towards the trophy. Germany didn’t exceed anyone’s expectations last time until this very stage when they put seven past Brazil, who were expected to turn home advantage into a sixth title exactly four years ago.
Now that same Germany team’s remembered incredibly fondly. That’s the way it goes, amigo. Only the names ever change and those names don’t come with free parking in the semis. Croatia has as much right to be here as Brazil ever did.
Tell you what’s most surprising about this run by England and it ain’t that it’s a young team or that Gareth Southgate’s been so impressive or that they won a penalty shootout or that Harry Kane’s looking like winning the golden boot or any of that. The most surprising thing, to me at least, is that this is only the third time that England’s ever made the semis. At least the other stuff we got to see happen with our own eyes for to believe it. But to think that a nation which usually qualifies pretty easy (only missing out in 1974, 1978 and 1994, other than the first few which they didn’t enter) and which has a football heritage (to borrow a phrase) that’s equally as rich as most teams, boasting arguably the most competitive domestic league on the planet… has been so bloody awful in major tournaments for this long.
Isn’t that weird? Imagine if you told Bobby Moore in 1966 that they wouldn’t make their next semi-final for 24 years and then wouldn’t make another for a further 28. England’s supplied a dozen European Cup winning clubs since then but it’s never translated into their national team’s success. Nowadays the best players in those clubs aren’t actually English but that wasn’t always the case. And while it’s been said that club rivalries have often gotten in the way, particularly that old Manchester United vs Liverpool one, it ain’t like Real Madrid and Barcelona are best friends. Or Boca Juniors and River Plate. Or Juventus and everyone else. England don’t have an excuse here. They should have had at least two more deep tournament runs like this since ’66.
But hey, fair play. They’re here now. Joining them is Belgium, a country that last made it this far at a World Cup in 1986 before they fell to a Diego Maradona double and then lost to France in extra time of the third & fourth playoff. They’ve been to 13 different World Cups but missed qualification in both 2006 and 2010. However what we weren’t to know back then was that the seeds were already being sown for future excellence.
Belgian clubs, unlike English ones, rarely go far in Champions League action. But where they shine is in player development, it’s kinda how they keep themselves out of debt. The Belgian FA has done wonderful things over the last decade or two of aligning player development routes, getting kids practicing for 4-3-3 formations so that everyone’s adaptable and one the same page. Always working on technique. It’s one part German cleverness, one part Dutch innovation and one part French creativity. Basically putting their geographic location to good use. Clubs like Brugge and Anderlecht then take it from there and players are trusted in first team situations early on. Romelu Lukaku was playing cup finals at age 16, for example. Those players catch the eyes of scouts and are sold for hefty sums which then keeps the banks happy back home.
The clubs don’t really see the long term rewards of that but the national team sure does. Football players are probably one of Belgium’s top exports these days. Funnily enough it’s English clubs that like themselves a Belgian most of all, with eleven of their 23 man squad currently playing in Blighty. Meanwhile Leander Dendoncker is literally the only player in that selection still doing his thing in the Belgian leagues. So, you know, expect a transfer pretty soon.
And these dudes aren’t only leaving Belgium, they’re leaving for top teams. Manchester City, Manchester United, Barcelona, Tottenham, PSG, Napoli, Chelsea, Wolfsburg, Celtic, etc. They’re getting Champions League footy on the regular. This is a golden generation and then some.
Not that that’ll ever guarantee you anything. This run to the semis has also shown the benefit of having players in the right positions. Their spine of the team is as good as any in world footy. They maybe drop off in a few other positions but get those tactics right and it doesn’t matter. The way they came back against Japan and the way they fended off Brazil, that was absolutely textbook perfect. Say what you will about Roberto Martinez and, to be honest, I kinda have… but he was always a great knockout manager. How many other jokers ever won a cup and got relegated in the same season? Not many, if any.
Croatia’s story is a bit more grating. Like many countries around the globe - hell like most countries even - football is a massive political tool in Croatia. Young countries seem to be even more drawn into that stuff, with their political foundations more volatile (check out the Swiss/Kosovo thing from earlier in the tourney). World Cups are great opportunities for patriotic expression and that tends to get hijacked by nationalist visions too.
But the disillusionment among the regular footy-lovin’ public in Croatia lately has been compounded by dramas going on not only in stadiums and in the sports pages of the paper but also in courtrooms. Zdravko Mamic ain’t a name too familiar to folks outside Croatia but he was arguably once, until recently, the most powerful man in Croatia football. The dude’s been swept up in legal cases regarding the, shall we say, misdistribution of funds from the transfers of top local players. Luka Modric most famously. Modric even testified in the trial and has since been charged with perjury and could yet face a jail sentence. Mamic is chilling in Bosnia & Herzegovina now trying to dodge a six and a half year prison term awaiting him in his home nation. Dejan Lovren is also caught up in this.
Fans in Croatia have been pissed at the corruption there for ages but now here it was coming to the fore. Right on the eve of a World Cup too. Back in 1998 Croatia used the event of their first World Cup as an independent nation, along with the goals of Davor Suker of course, to storm all the way to third place. It was political then and it’s political now.
But it’s always odd how these things work and with Croatia hitting up this World Cup with their best squad since 1998 but also the most indifference from fed-up fans back home, they’ve only gone and launched themselves into the semi-finals again, one win away from either repeating or even bettering the efforts of ’98. A complicated situation for sure. But football has a way of simplifying things for people. A month ago this team was a tool in the arm-wrestle over political and economic disenchantment and all of a sudden now it’s the relief from those things, it’s the escape, it’s the transcendence, it’s the hope and it’s the faith.
Then there’s France. Packed to overflowing with superstar players, from the enigmatic Paul Pogba to the unassuming N’Golo Kante to the breakout talent of Kylian Mbappe. If it weren’t for their own tendency to, shall we say, Do An England in major tournaments then they’d be runaway favourites right now and perhaps they oughta be. Didier Deschamps is looking to become the third man after Mario Zagallo and Franz Beckenbauer to win the World Cup as a player and a manager both. They were runners up on home soil in the last Euros. Constantly told that they’re failing to live up to expectations yet here they are in the business stages once again. Too many storylines to count, let along explain.
And I won’t say: May The Best Team Win, because the best team always wins because whoever wins is the best team. Those are the rules. These are the games. We’re merely the witnesses.
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