The Welly Nix Title Quest: Still Living In The Weirdness
The Weirdness
Right. Okay then. There have been some odd Wellington Phoenix games this season but that was the oddest, not sure it’s even close. The Nix came out of the starting blocks at a million miles an hour and were rushing the Newcastle Jets all over the place. Winning the ball in the Jets’ half, getting plenty of shots off at their teenage debutant goalkeeper Noah James, and generally bossing the game. The intensity of the first fifteen minutes was unsustainable and the Jets eventually were able to start stringing passes together and build a few things up but the Phoenix again came out fast in the second half and were a constant threat throughout with several close chances, an offside goal disallowed, and multiple penalty shouts declined.
They also lost 3-0.
One goal was scored late in the first half, the other two in the final fifteen minutes of the match. Probably a bit to do with the excessive pace they were playing at but also the fatigue of Sisyphean futility. On one hand this was another really strong performance, probably the closest they’ve come to putting in a ninety minute quality showing since the restart, but on the other hand the same major worry remained: where are the goddamn goals? You can tell it’s weighing them down too. This game was perfectly poised to be a confidence builder ahead of the playoffs but instead it’s starting to look like not only have the A-League taken away the VAR specifically to the sabotage the Phoenix but they’ve also erected some form of invisible psychic barrier between the goalposts to keep the ball from crossing the line.
Okay, not really. We’ve got enough conspiracy theories floating around society at the moment to indulge in any more, even the satirical ones. But honestly I don’t even know what to say after watching all that. The fellas went go-karting in the midweek as a team builder deep into their Aussie bubble experience. This week they might wanna go see an exorcist or something because jeezus, what’s going on? There were periods of utter dominance in this game, the type of dominance you usually only see at the very end of desperate games, and they got absolutely zero reward for it. What’s more is that the Jets scored three times thanks to a deflection and a counter attack (with an excellent finish) and then the last one was a bit scrappy but whatever. Chuck in at least two huge penalty shouts which got no love and it was an astounding game. Not in a good way either. Just some jaw-dropping weirdness.
Individually speaking, this result doesn’t matter much. Second place was still attainable but it required Melbourne City also losing and overturning a few goal difference points in the process so it’s easy to write this one off. Having said that, it’s a lot harder to write off the fact that the Nix have only won once since the restart, that they’ve only scored five goals in six games and two of them were penalties, that they’re going into the playoffs on the worst run of form they’ve had since the opening four games of the season. Those things are harder to ignore.
The Nix last night felt like a team who if they scored one then they’d score four or five. But they never got that one and then to lose like they did, no way did it reflect the performance but it does reflect the way they’ve been tracking the last few games where they can’t make their dominance count and then keep getting sucker punched back the other way. This game was a chance to build some much needed confidence ahead of knockout footy and instead things went in the other direction. It’s a concern.
The State Of Things
Second place is officially gone. Sydney FC have finished first, Melbourne City have finished second. If the Phoenix can win their elimination game then they’ll face one of those two in the semis. But to get there they’ve got to win that elimination game.
As it stands, with two more games left in the regular season and both involving Western United, the Phoenix will either finish third or fourth. Western United play Sydney FC on Saturday night and then Melbourne City on Wednesday. Lots of time for the Nix to simmer on the fact that depending on how those two games turn out Western Utd could finish anywhere between third and sixth... win both and they overtake the Nix, lose both and they’ll play the Nix. Somewhere in between and something else happens. Brisbane Roar and Perth Glory are the other teams in the top six so the Nix could play any of those three teams in the elimination round. Here’s how they went against each in the regular season:
Brisbane Roar:
Won 2-1 in Wellington for the Nix’s first victory (in their sixth game)
Lost 1-0 in Brisbane in January to snap a nine-game unbeaten streak
Drew 1-1 last week in a game the Nix dominated
Perth Glory:
Lost 2-1 at home in game three
Lost 4-2 away in Perth in February
Won 2-1 in the only post-restart game the Nix took three points from
Western United:
Lost 1-0 at home in the first game of the season
Won 3-1 away in December in one of their best performances
Won 2-0 at home in February in the middle of a four-game win streak
To be honest, those three prospective games aren’t the worst they could have stumbled into. If it’s Brisbane then we know we can take them based on the other day. Gotta trust that they’ll have a little more luck in front of goal (otherwise it doesn’t matter who we play) and surely Jamie Young can’t repeat all those saves. We only play them if Western Utd win both games and overtake us though, most likely we face Perth who have beaten us twice but we got them most recently and without Diego Castro they’re not quite the force they have been, especially when they’ve lost four out of six restart games. Then there’s Western United who’d need to lose both games to stay in sixth and play the Welly Nix but if they do then that cancels out their impressive recent form and they’ll also have played twice since the Nix last did which is a boost for fitness reasons. We’ll see how it goes. The elimination final will take place next weekend so the Nix should get a decent eight/nine days off.
(There’s also the mathematical possibility that WU loses both games but a combined 16 goals and drops below Adelaide and out of the top six but let’s be realistic here, people)
Decisions, Decisions
A couple interesting things that Uffie’s gotta figure out over the next week and a bit. At half-time of this Newcastle game with his team down 1-0 despite having been all over them the very reasonable decision to sub on Alex Rufer was made. Rufer adds a different dimension with his direct passing game and his physical strength and it’d be a lie to say I hadn’t wondered during that first half what might have been had he been out there from the beginning. But that meant Uffie had to sacrifice someone else... and it was Steinmann who got the hook. Cam Devlin had been pretty good, playing on the front foot and bringing his energy back to usual levels after a dud game last time, that meant that Steinmann’s more defensive approach had to be sacrificed.
Ordinarily Devlin and Steinmann still make the best combo but Rufer has been the top performing of them since the restart and with the Nix’s number one problem right now being their attacking cohesion then pushing him in to start in an elimination game would make a lot of sense. It’d be ruthless to an import player like Steinmann if indeed he’s the one to miss out but then also you’d have him on the bench to bring on for the last twenty if we’ve got a lead, ya know? Of course the other side of that coin is this...
Minutes per goal conceded with Steinmann on the pitch: 51.1 (10 in 511 mins)
Minutes per goal conceded without Steinmann on the pitch: 103.0 (23 in 2369 mins)
Luke DeVere didn’t cover himself in glory for the first goal however suddenly putting him on the chopping block because Te Atawhai Hudson-Wihongi had a couple nice cameos is way too rough. But the decision seems to have already been made at right back where Callan Elliot again started – and played his best game in a Phoenix jersey IMO – with Louis Fenton again not included in the squad. If Tim Payne’s injury is no good come the elimination final then Callan Elliot’s gonna get that gig, it seems. Even if it is good, Payne hasn’t played footy since March so he’d be pretty undercooked. Here’s another couple numbers for you...
Points per game when Tim Payne starts: 2.2 (33pts in 15g)
Points per game when Tim Payne doesn’t start: 0.7 (8pts in 11g)
There’s also the possibility that Gary Hooper stays on the bench to be an import player because we definitely did get more out of David Ball and Uli Davila here, then again we didn’t get any goals from them either and Hoops is the top scorer for a team that has struggled to finish its chances. Since I mentioned the midfield thing earlier, it’s worth adding that between them Rufer, Steinmann, and Devlin have a combined 0 goals and 3 assists (1 for CD, 2 for AR). Criticism there has to also fall upon the wingers as Callum McCowatt (1 goal, 2 assists), Reno Piscopo (2 goals, 3 assists), and Jaushua Sotirio (4 goals, 2 assists) haven’t really delivered enough end product. It’s not all about end product, those numbers are never not deceiving... but maybe it is a little about that at the moment when the Nix can’t seem to put the ball in the bloody net.
Stats From The Restart
Most WPX Mins:
Stefan Marinovic – 540
Libby Cacace – 540
Steven Taylor – 495
David Ball - 445
Matti Steinmann - 398
Reno Piscopo - 393
Callum McCowatt – 339
Luke DeVere – 335
Ulises Davila – 322
Cameron Devlin – 316
Gary Hooper - 272
Walter Scott got nine minutes off the bench here meaning that all outfield players bar Tim Payne have gotten minutes during the restart period.
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