Olympic Footy Draw Reaction & Squad Prediction Yarns (OlyWhites)

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Rightio so we’ve covered the ladies, now it’s the turn of the blokes in what was a much more confusing Olympic football draw and somehow also a much more beneficial one too. Like, we came out good from this one. The OlyWhites got pretty much the best possible outcome – in stark contrast to the Footy Ferns whose draw was borderline worst-case-scenario. The OlyWhites... hmm, OlyWhites. I dunno, that name’s just a little too silly for me. It’s a nickname for a nickname. Whatever, I’ll tow the party line for now.

Sixteen teams qualify for the men’s event. No idea why there are four extra teams at the men’s edition compared to the women other than I s’pose it means more chance of the heavyweights getting in there for telly ratings and whatnot. Which is kinda the only reason why football is at the Olympics anyway: to cash in. So it goes.

Sixteen teams means multiple from every region except for Oceania... but it’s U23s for the fellas and that doesn’t always reflect the strengths of the senior teams. Top players aren’t often released for those youth championships. There are always a few surprises. However this time around... it’s pretty stacked. Argentina and Brazil from South America. Egypt, Ivory Coast, and South Africa from Africa. France, Germany, Spain, and Romania from Europe. Okay one of those last ones is not like the others. But still. At least we don’t have to worry about this killer generation of American players coming through as the USA didn’t qualify, they bottled it in the semis against Honduras who thus punch their tickets to Tokyo instead.

Not only is the number of teams different between the men’s and women’s tournaments, the seedings for the draw are different too. The women keep it simple with the four pots defined by FIFA rankings. The men instead have this complicated points system thing based on past Olympic performance and qualifying prowess. You don’t need to know how it works (click here if you do), suffice to say that since we’ve qualified for a couple of recent Olympicses – not last time though, shout out Andy Martin and Anthony Hudson - and have gotten a couple draws from them... somehow we ended up in pot three. Can’t imagine there have been too many major tournament draws (in which we weren’t a tournament host) where the New Zealand team was anywhere other than the bottom seeding pot. Except for here. Already that was an enormous boost as we were guaranteed a game against a lower-seeded team: Australia, Saudi Arabia, France, or Romania. Easy to guess which team we didn’t want there. But let’s sit back and allow Ryan Nelsen to do the rest...

The way it ended up, these were the four groups minus their third seed team. In other words the four possible permutations of New Zealand opponents (the three African teams were all in our pot, so couldn’t play any of them):

  • Group A - Japan / Mexico / France

  • Group B – South Korea / Honduras / Romania

  • Group C – Spain / Argentina / Australia

  • Group D – Brazil / Germany / Saudi Arabia

Now, remember the thing about how U23s teams (actually it’s U24s as they kept the same 2020 cut-off date even after it was postponed) aren’t necessarily reflective of the strength of their senior teams. But even still it’s pretty easy to see which three groups are built of nightmare ingredients and which is by far the best outcome. And guess what? We drew the good one!

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Honduras are especially funky because this OlyWhites team is likely to be built from the last two U20 World Cup squads (2017 & 2019) and coincidentally we played Honduras in both of those tournaments. Beat them 3-1 in 2017 thanks to a Myer Bevan double. Then beat them 5-0 two years later with Ben Waine getting a brace. To be fair, Honduras were bronze medallists at the 2016 Olympics so gotta be careful with our expectations... nonetheless we’re gonna be a much stronger squad than we sent to the 2008 or 2012 Olympics and we’ve been given a draw in which every game is potentially winnable. This is like some kind of dreamland, what did we ever do to deserve this!? Oh yeah we got shafted in a penalty shootout at the 2019 U20 World Cup. Fair enough then. Shout out to cosmic realignments.

Some possible overage squadies from NZ’s Group B opponents...

  • South Korea - Son Heung-min (Tottenham, ENG), Kim Young-gwon (Gamba Osaka, JAP), Nam Tae-hee (Al-Sadd, QAT), Hwang Hee-chan (RB Leipzig, GER), Kwon Chang-hoon (Freiburg, GER), Hwang Ui-jo (Bordeaux, FRA)

  • Honduras – Alberth Ellis (Boavista, POR), Bryan Acosta (FC Dallas, USA), Alfredo Mejia (Levadiakos, GRE), Maynor Figueiroa (Houston Dynamo, USA)

  • Romania – Vlad Chiriches (Sassuolo, ITA), Alin Tosca (Gaziantep, TUR), Razvan Marin (Cagliari, ITA), Nicolae Stanciu (Slavia Prague, CZE), Claudiu Keseru (Ludogorets, BUL), George Puscas (Reading, ENG)

South Korea should be the strongest of the three – they were seeded in the first pot after all – but a lot will depend on whether they can get Son Heung-min to play. He went to the last Olympics with them as an overage player (he missed the cut by about six months) and scored twice, including one against Fiji who qualified from Oceania, before they were knocked out 1-0 in the quarters by... Honduras!

Also quite like the sound of this idea…

For what it’s worth, the three overage players that New Zealand took in 2008 were: Ryan Nelsen, Simon Elliott, and Chris Killen. The three overage players that went in 2012 were Ryan Nelsen, Michael McGlinchey, and Shane Smeltz. That 2012 lot is actually a trippy squad to look back at with some of the names in there, safe to say the 2021 version will have a higher hit rate of long term All Whites... but Chris Wood was there. Tommy Smith was there. Tim Payne was there. Kosta Barbarouses was there. Marco Rojas was there. A couple of those fellas will definitely be in Danny Hay’s consideration for overage players, one of them in particular who will be the first name on his list.

Hold that thought for now, because the process of selecting overage players depends on what areas need help. The eligibility date is 1 January 1997. Players have to have been born on or after that date or else they’re overage. So basically anyone born in 1997 or later. As already mentioned, that means both the last two U20 cycles are available so here are the fully-capped All Whites who fall within that age range...

Clayton Lewis, Moses Dyer, Henry Cameron, Logan Rogerson, Dane Ingham, Myer Bevan, Sarpreet Singh, Noah Billingsley, Liberato Cacace, Michael Woud, Joe Bell, Elijah Just, Callum McCowatt, James McGarry, Max Mata & Nando Pijnaker

That’s sixteen out of the eighteen required players, not including three overage dudes. But I can tell you right now that not all of those sixteen will be selected. And there are more than a couple uncapped players making strong cases for selection, including from that 2019 U20s group. That particular team’s average starting XI went something like: Woud | Elliot, Pijnaker, Stanger, Cacace | Bell, Stensness, Singh | Just, McCowatt, Waine/Mata. Callan Elliot’s over in Greece still awaiting a debut for Xanthi. Gianni Stensness has been an impressive regular in the midfield for Central Coast Mariners. George Stanger is on the brink of cracking the Hamilton Academical senior squad, having appeared three times for them (one start) in the Scottish Premiership this campaign – though they’re looking like being relegated. And of course Ben Waine is scoring goals for fun for the Wellington Phoenix.

We know that Danny Hay is gonna pick a 4-3-3 formation, that’s how he likes to play. We know that his only All Whites tour in charge saw him pick a number of these eligible guys to start games. Hence we can pretty much lock that crew in as the baseline. Woud in goal. Pijanker and Cacace in the backline. Bell and Singh in midfield. Just and McCowatt in the front three. That’s a solid place to start. Ideally Ryan Thomas would fill out the midfield as an overage player but those who read Flying Kiwis on the regular know that he’s had season ending surgery and even before that he was prioritising PSV’s probable European qualifiers over any international stuff. Which is fair enough, as an overage player there’s no expectation to make himself available if the schedules don’t fit. Luckily both Clayton Lewis and Gianni Stensness are in fine A-League form and can fill that role and spare the overage spot.

That leaves a spot up front which Chris Wood would be perfect for. Like, if we were designing a regen player on Football Manager to take along then it’d be a large target man centre forward with quality finishing abilities who is used to playing out of possession and starts in the Premier League every weekend. And that player is literally right there and (hopefully) available. Count those blessings! Wood’s usually keen for a fern on his chest too so fingers crossed... because there’s no backup. Oh and for what it’s worth Woodsy’s also one of only two kiwi men who’ve scored at these tournaments before: he got the first goal against Egypt in 2012. At Old Trafford no less (there was a bit about it in Flying Kiwis this week – Mo Salah scored the equaliser for Egypt in a 1-1 draw).

After which we’ve only got right-back and centre-back to fill... and two overage dudes left. One surely has to be a central defender, with Winston Reid the ideal choice. His injury history for a team that will be playing at least three games in seven days is a worry, yet he might rate the option of putting himself out there as an audition for his next gig (likely to be a loan again). He’s proven at Brentford that he’s got heaps left in the tank but he’s dropped back out of their starting team for the current moment. It’s been a constant rotation every few weeks at CB since he joined.

If Reid isn’t keen/fit/available then Michael Boxall is the next option. The Olympics clash with the MLS season so Minnesota United don’t have to release him. That’s an issue. Maybe not an insurmountable one though. Elsewhere Tommy Smith remains a valuable veteran option. As for right-back... Tim Payne? It’s strange because there aren’t that many superstar options at this point of time. Most of our best players are U24 players. Maybe Marco Rojas or Kosta Barbarouses for attacking depth. The fit’s not ideal there. Bill Tuiloma does offer defensive versatility.

We’ve got a few quality overage keepers but Michael Woud is probably the All Whites first choice at this stage so no reason to use an overage on a backup... Cameron Brown and Conor Tracey (both Auckland City) did a lot of backup stuff in these age group squads. Zac Jones is another (Team Wellington). As is Alex Paulsen (Wellington Phoenix). Paulsen’s a little younger, he was part of the 2019 U17s... but if he does get picked he won’t be the only one from that squad because Marko Stamenic is sure to be a part of this Olympic team given he was already about to be called up to the senior team had those 2020 friendlies not been canned due to the pandemic. Matty Garbett and Ben Old could also go close.

Okay so with that all in mind let’s put some hypothetical names down...

GK – Michael Woud, Alex Paulsen

DEF – Winston Reid (OA), Nando Pijnaker, Liberato Cacace, Noah Billingsley, Tim Payne (OA), James McGarry

MID – Joe Bell, Sarpreet Singh, Clayton Lewis, Gianni Stensness, Marko Stamenic

FWD – Chris Wood (OA), Callum McCowatt, Eli Just, Ben Waine, Max Mata

RESERVES – Cameron Brown, George Stanger, Callan Elliot, Logan Rogerson

Strongly holding onto the right to change my mind over some of those fringe picks. Max Mata and Logan Rogerson are about to start new seasons with new clubs and that could make a huge difference to things. The backup keeper spot is up for grabs, no wrong answers there (but since they’re unlikely to play I dig the idea of taking the dude with the highest upside, aka Paulsen). Arguably got too many fullbacks in that group although that’s with knowledge in mind of Payne’s form at CB for the Welly Nix. And a different choice of overagers changes the shape of things massively. Damn, this is tricky. And that’s without really considering the best that the local Premiership had to offer... gotta put Ollie Whyte in the mix just for the lols alone. Olly Whyte for the OlyWhites (his form for Team Welly helps his case too, tbf).

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