Coming To Grips With An Absolutely Baffling Welly Nix Campaign So Far
Nothing makes sense. Assumptions are worthless, reputations are irrelevant. A general sense of confusion is the default state. The more you try and understand things, the more futile that exercise appears. Such is life sometimes and a lot of the problems in the world these days stem from people’s shock of/refusal to accept the inescapable modern awareness of the difference between their preconceived ideas of how the world is supposed to be versus how it actually is in reality. That and a pandemic, which isn’t helping either. Such, also, is this Wellington Phoenix season which straight-up refuses to play by any form of logic.
A couple games ago the Welly Nix went and smoked Melbourne Victory 4-1. It wasn’t even their best performance, they’ve played plenty better and lost this season, but that’s kinda the point. It was one they were expected to win and it was one that they did win. After 12 previous games of madness this was a simple enough three points that seemed to suggest that a corner had been turned. So naturally they went and lost their next two games in contrasting fashion. A dull 1-0 defeat to Macarthur in which they were pretty much blunted by the strong defensive foundation of their opponents and then a 3-2 defeat against Melbourne City where they suddenly looked really potent on attack but at the expense of a level of vulnerability at the back that would’ve made the angels cry.
This has been the pattern the whole way through. Strong performances lead to defeats. Games in which the Nix have heaps of chances, they don’t seem to be able to finish any of them. Injuries have been a menace to that defence but although the actors keep changing, the roles remain the same with ridiculously soft goals continually getting through. But then whenever the despair closes in they’ll produce a battling win against the odds, showing all the clinical execution that had escaped them otherwise. And in every incarnation of performance there will be spells of silky, super football. The most annoying thing is that they feel so close to being a truly competitive team but it’s like there’s an invisible barrier in the way keeping them from taking those last few steps.
Results When The Nix Lead The xG stats: L D L L D W L D W (9 pts/9gms)
Results When The Nix Trail The xG Stats: W L L W L L (6 pts/6gms)
See, look at that. There doesn’t seem to be any difference in results between when the Nix play well (creating more valuable chances than the other team) and when they play poorly (the opposite). Which has gotten better lately, might wanna give some credit to Tomer Hemed for that as his elite finishing is finally coming through with four goals in his last five games. But not by enough. And there are still more games where positive performances aren’t being rewarded with wins.
A couple xG highlights...
Losing 4-3 to a Western Sydney team who had a combined total of 1.00 xG:
Somehow winning 2-0 against Newcastle with the Nix’s lowest xG of the campaign so far (0.43):
Getting dropped 2-1 twice by Sydney FC despite having the better chances, particularly this fifth game of the season where Kosta Barbarouses was very rude to his old team:
Tim Payne had some valuable words to offer to the telly folks after the Melbourne City defeat...
“I think that’s been the story of our season so far. We’ve been involved in a few good games like that for the spectator, but on a personal level it’s very disappointing to let ourselves down again. We all know we’re a good team, we’ve shown it out there tonight but at the end of the day we’ve got to get results. We’ve got to somehow find that killer touch, as I said, in both six-yard box’s. We’ve got to do it ASAP. Over half of the season is gone already, so we’ve got to try and turn things around. We’re happy with the performances but we’ve got to turn those performances into results now - and fast.”
He’s not wrong. Tim Payne’s usually good for a bit of leadership in that way and he’s one of the fellas who has stepped up the most while the team been weaving in and out of form (Oli Sail is high on that list as well), moving into central defence and far exceeding himself in that role.
Granted, Tim Payne’s also a man of contradictions. Just as his massive leadership capabilities are hampered by that rather hefty golf cart incident, his central defensive efforts have been mostly brilliant but for the occasional major error that costs a goal. You know what though? It’s a lot easier to tighten up isolated moments than the other way around. We’ve only been blessed with 99 minutes of Tim Payne + Steven Taylor so far (and Payne was a bit uncomfortable at first adjusting to playing left CB, having to receive the ball on his other foot and all that) but with the way that Payne’s been throwing himself at the ball from all angles it’ll be like that Spiderman meme when the two of them get going.
Which gets at a larger truth too because there are reasons for this chaos. There are causes and effects in play. Quite a few of them, as is always the case within the fluid and holistic universe that is any game of football. Here are a few of them...
Poor Finishing
If you’re consistently coming in under the xG reckons, then that suggests you’re a team of poor finishers. Already hinted that Tomer Hemed has helped with this and there’s no doubt about that little turn of the corner. The big Israeli looked well off the pace to start the season, struggling to gel with a team that didn’t exactly play to his strengths, but since he’s come back from injury he’s started to deliver in the one area that truly matters: goals. Which is what he’s been signed for. Someone who can’t move and groove like Davila or Ball but who will put the ball in the white flappy net thing. The Nix have exceeded their xG total in five of the last seven games (during which time Hemed’s scored four goals). Before that? Just once in eight games.
It didn’t take anything more than the eye test to know that the Nix weren’t scoring enough goals early on, it was the same problem they had last season so it’s a relief to see some progress on the matter. Gotta say that Hemed’s not the only guy delivering though. Reno Piscopo has looked much more potent lately, taking his game to the next level (up until his injury), while Cam Devlin recently hooned in his first ever Phoenix goal and Ben Waine has been chipping in having gotten more extended minutes in Hemed’s prior absence. Ulises Davila has been thumping them in the whole way only how he’s got some support. Chuck in David Ball with four goals to his name as well. The times they are a-changin’.
Bloody Injuries
Unfortunately that goal scoring renaissance has coincided with a defensive injury crisis. They’re scoring enough goals now to turn 2-1 defeats into 2-2 or 3-2 draws/wins... except they’ve also started conceding more so those 2-1 defeats are just becoming 3-2 or 4-3 defeats instead. Luke DeVere and Joshua Laws started the season at CB. Both have had injuries, DeVere still out for ages while Laws’ knocks have been more of the in and out variety. Thus Tim Payne slid across into the middle while Liam McGing was thrust into the starting team for a run of games (having played 69 total minutes last season). That combo initially worked nicely with a couple clean sheets in wins over Newcastle and Perth but that pixie dust soon wore off. Steven Taylor made his return to the club in time for the 4-1 win over Melbourne Victory... only to limp off injured nine minutes into the following game. DeVere started 6 games at CB. McGing has started 6 games there himself. Payne has started 9 at CB (plus 6 at RB). Laws with 7 central starts (and another at LB). Taylor 2 of them. It’s pretty hard to settle when things are so, y’know, unsettled.
Silly Mistakes
Having said that, some of the goals that they’ve conceded have been especially stupid.
Like this one...
And this one...
And this one...
And this one...
And this one...
And this one...
And this one...
You get the idea.
When you have to work harder than average for your goals, but you concede softer than average goals, everything is so much more ruthless. The margin for error shrinks to microscopic size and considering one of the major issues in the first place is conceding silly goals... yeah that’s not good. No need to get into the post-mortems of any of those goals because the silliness is coming from a variety of areas. Crosses. Set pieces. Transitional play. Positioning. Focus. Et cetera. Fingers crossed that an extended run of Steven Taylor appearances can go a long way towards sorting that out. It very well might, to be fair. Then there’s...
Home-Field Advantage
... Of which there is none. For obvious reasons. Now that the much discussed Trans-Tasman Bubble is a goer, there’s talk of a game in Wellington and maybe one in Auckland too (or two in Wellywood) but for the most part the entire campaign is taking place on foreign soil. It’s not a sob story, these are professional players doing what they need to do. They want to be there. The club has experience of this from last season and so will have been able to use that experience to put themselves in the best possible situation under the circumstances. Guys are being taken care of.
But speaking purely in terms of the on-the-pitch stuff... wearing Wollongong colours and getting the Mexican fan club out there in full voice (as well as a growing Israeli contingent too) is all well and good, in fact those fans have been amazing, but it’s not the same. In an ordinary season teams have to travel to a different country to face the Phoenix. A different time zone. Different conditions. It’s an advantage that the club has usually been able to capitalise on... even if it does come with an equal and opposite disadvantage in away games. Here’s the Home & Away (yeah I know you sang those words like the theme tune) disparity from the season so far...
HOME: 9 GM | 2 W | 2 D | 5 L | 14 GF | 14 GA | 0 GD | 8 PTS (0.89/G)
AWAY: 6 GM | 2 W | 1 D | 3 L | 9 GF | 10 GA | -1 GD | 7 PTS (1.17/G)
It might as well be identical. Slightly better points per game away but with three fewer games that’s pretty negligible. Now compare that to the Home & Away numbers from last season pre-covid (as well as the post-covid overalls for kicks)...
HOME: 11 GM | 8 W | 1 D | 2 L | 19 GF | 9 GA | +10 GD | 25 PTS (2.27/G)
AWAY: 9 GM | 3 W | 2 D | 4 L | 14 GF | 14 GA | 0 GD | 11 PTS (1.22/G)
PANDO: 7 GM | 1 W | 2 D | 4 L | 5 GF | 11 GA | -6 GD | 5 PTS (0.71/G)
That post-pando bit includes a finals defeat so there weren’t actually points on offer there but counting it all the same as it was definitely more of the same. You see the point, right? If you recontextualise what they’re doing as having entirely away games then it’s hard to underestimate the damage done to the Nix’s hopes when you take away one of the very best home-field advantages in the competition. This club is on a six-game winning streak in Aotearoa, nine games undefeated in a row... but they haven’t played in Aotearoa for more than twelve months. That was always gonna cause a wobble.
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