Football Ferns vs Japan: They Lost, But Let’s Keep It Realistic
Not sure what you were expecting as the Footy Ferns took on Japan in Nagano... but it probably should have been exactly what happened. They may have been coming off two a couple wins against Mexico and Philippines but this was different gravy. Japan are borderline top ten in the world and have been for a long time. The Ferns almost always lose to teams like that. Often they beat teams around their own level or lower too, both things are true, but this wasn’t that.
There seems to be this idea about the Fernies that they’re all over the shop, one step forward and then two steps back... the truth of the matter is that they’re one of the most consistent teams in Aotearoa. They lose when they’re expected to lose. They compete when they’re expected to compete. Annoyingly – and probably due to financial/logistical reasons as much as anything – the Ferns tend to play a lot more often against far better teams than against evenly matched teams which skews the perspective. But did you actually think they were gonna take down Japan in Japan?
The FIFA World Rankings are not recognised as a factual representation on this here website because, well, they’re not. For one thing they’ve got the Footy Ferns about ten spots higher than they probably should be. But using the current standings as a guideline, here’s what they’ve done under Jitka Klimková so far based on the loose rankings of their opponents...
Ranked 1-10: W 0 | D 0 | L 3 | 1 GF | 11 GA | -10 GD
USA (L 0-5), Canada (L 1-5 & L 0-1)
Ranked 11-20: W 1 | D 0 | 6 L | 5 GF | 12 GA | -7 GD
Iceland (L 0-1), Australia (L 1-2 & L 1-3), Norway (L 0-2), South Korea (L 1-2 & W 2-0), Japan (L 0-2)
Ranked >20: W 2 | D 2 | L 0 | 3 GF | 1 GA | +2 GD
Czech Republic (D 0-0), Wales (D 0-0), Mexico (W 1-0), Philippines (W 2-1)
Seriously, is the pattern not clear as day? They tend to get smoked by the very best. They also tend to lose in that 11-20 range though they are more capable of scoring a few goals and they don’t concede quite so many. Outside the top 20 (enormously pertinent point: the Ferns themselves are also ranked outside the top 20) they still don’t score enough goals, perhaps, but they’re very good defensively and regularly get positive results. The problem is that 10 of their last 14 matches have been against top 20 nations.
There is only one professional club in Aotearoa and it’s only existed with a women’s team for a year. Plus they came last that season (higher hopes this time around, to be fair). The Ferns are actually ranked one spot higher than Scotland on the latest FIFA efforts yet several of our top players have recently moved to Scotland to further their careers. Sure, the Ferns qualify for every World Cup, and sure they’ve underachieved at a lot of them (especially more recently as expectations have climbed)... but also they pretty much qualify for them automatically by beating Oceania teams by hefty margins – their last OFC Nations Cup was in 2018 and the Aotearoa side won all give with a combined scoreline of 43-0. Not exactly ideal preparation for what’s to follow.
You do want to play the very best national teams every now and then to stay alert to the where the standard is at (can’t help but feel the All Whites would’ve benefited heaps had those pando friendlies against England and Belgium not been canned). But let’s say that the USA wants to get really good at rugby union... probably best not to play the bulk of your games against the All Blacks, Ireland, South Africa, Wales, England, etc. You’re not going to learn anything from those fixtures other than that those teams are way better than you. Likewise the novelty factor of the Football Ferns playing USA is long gone.
It just seems like this context is missing from how people think and talk about the Football Ferns, as though if they try really hard they might one day magically overcome their drastic disadvantages in population and infrastructure and finances and start scoring heaps of goals and winning these games against top teams. That’s just straight-up not realistic.
Yet outside of that higher echelon the Ferns are pretty good. Plenty still to work on, always is, but it’s those fixtures where the progress of the squad becomes evident (and kind of only in those fixtures). The draw for the World Cup takes place in Auckland in a couple weeks and the Ferns, as co-hosts, will be a top seed and therefore dodge the six highest ranked qualifiers plus Australia. They’ll get at least one opponent from outside that top twenty range. And, crucially, if the ping pong balls swirl in favour, maybe another one as well. They definitely won’t have anything as brutal as the group they had at the last Olympics with USA, Sweden, and Australia their rivals.
It’s those games that the Ferns have to win. Those games where their ability/inability to score goals comes into focus. That’s what the team needs to be measured on. Getting weary about continually losing to better teams is madness... they’re better teams, after all.
The game against Japan unfolded to the same pattern, hence it’s very hard to write about it in a standard match recap kinda way. There wasn’t really anything to learn. Short of springing an upset, which predictably didn’t happen, the value of this single-game tour was always going to be in the gains made on the training pitch rather than the match itself. Staying busy. Filling out the match calendar. And also embedding one or two more players into the unit.
There was already no Abby Erceg, Ria Percival, Rebekah Stott, Daisy Cleverley, or Annalie Longo. Then before the team travelled, Jacqui Hand pulled up injured after winning the Suomen Cup in Finland the previous weekend. Perhaps still hungover after these shenanigans (officially it was a quad strain but we know how these things work lol)...
Then Gabi Rennie got covid and little niggles to Ali Riley and CJ Bott meant they weren’t risked either. So on top of everything else it was another of those games – and Jitka Klimková has had a lot of them, frustratingly – where the first eleven of unavailables was arguably stronger than the team she was able to pick (Alfeld | Bott, Erceg, Stott, Riley | Percival, Cleverley, Longo | Hand, Rennie, Rood ... yeah that stacks up).
That led to Vic Esson (starting for the sixth time in eight games, clearly the established number one now) working with a back four of Meikayla Moore on the right, Liz Anton on the left, and Claudia Bunge and Katie Bowen in the middle. Another one of those all-CB quartets. Malia Steinmetz and Betsy Hassett were the midfielders with Indiah-Paige Riley and Liv Chance on the wings. Up front was the familiar combination of Hannah Wilkinson and Paige Satchell.
Defensively they were pretty good. Only had a third of possession and struggled to do much with it against a swarming Japanese side but while Japan had plenty of shots they didn’t have too many that made Vic Esson sweat. Liz Anton isn’t a natural left back but you can see why she’s been getting these opportunities with another strong display. Betsy Hassett had some sharp touches in the middle. Esson herself was in control – wearing the captain’s armband in this her tenth international cap.
And maybe if they’d held on until half-time with the game still scoreless then they might have been able to expose a few frailties in a somewhat rotated Japanese side. Unfortunately they conceded in the 44th minute and we know how this story goes. When you don’t have confidence in being able to score goals, conceding even once is a killer. Hinata Miyazawa with the goal after some lovely intricate passing stuff, although Moore had a chance to clear the ball and it snuck past her. The back four had been creeping too tightly together through the half and it finally caught up with them.
The Ferns started the second half with their brightest spell, including a header by Wilkinson off a Chance corner that bounced into the post (despite Wilkie only really getting half of it). That one never looked like it had goal potential but the scramble immediately afterwards did. However Japan got it cleared and pretty soon re-established their ascendancy, scoring again through Riko Ueki after an hour. Very good header from Fuka Nagano... though again it was one could have been broken up earlier. Moore, defending so far infield that Bunge ended up rushing out to close the winger, with a clearance that picked out a Japanese player instead of the sideline.
These were only a couple isolated moments in a mostly good defensive effort but goals are isolated moments too and they decide games. It’s not a coincidence that the defence was too narrow when they were all natural central players either, just sayin’.
It wasn’t until the last quarter of an hour that Klimková began to empty her bench. She had brought Grace Jale on for Hannah Wilkinson a few minutes before Japan’s second (two players in their A-League offseason who also couldn’t play during the last tour due to covid) but that was all until Mackenzie Barry was given a debut on 75’ with her Welly Nix pal Kate Taylor also introduced at the same time, as was Anna Leat – a fifteen minute stint in goal for her. Two games in a row that Leat has played off the bench.
Emma Rolston and Hannah Blake also came on near the very end... meaning that, somewhat surprisingly, there was no debut for Alyssa Whinham. Selected in a squad for the first time, this did seem like a decent opportunity to give her a cheeky debut but that’ll have to wait. Mackenzie Barry had to wait until her third squad selection before finally getting onto the field. Plus they were patient in selecting Whinham in the first place – very much a one-thing-at-a-time mentality as she first finished her WahiNix season then did the U20 World Cup thing and only after got that Fernies boost-up.
That debut had better come soon though because the World Cup’s not getting any further away and Whinham clearly has a skill set which is unique for the Ferns... and that creative link-up vision could be crucial for a team struggling to forge enough goal-scoring chances. The next tour is a double header against South Korea in Whinham’s home town of Christchurch next month and that seems like a perfect time for a debut. Regardless, this will have been a key experience for Whinham getting amongst it on the training paddock with the best that Aotearoa has to offer.
Not a hundred percent convinced about the 4-4-2 formation either. The strike duo of Wilkinson and Satchell are both locked-on starters but we’re still yet to see any kind of combination between them despite thus being the eighth time in ten games that they’ve started together (would be 10/10 but for Wilkie getting covid last time). Satchell tends to drift out to the right wing leaving Wilkie isolated. A front three (which was the case in the first few games they started together for JK) would add someone like Liv Chance or Jacqui Hand to help out with that... plus it’d give them a chance to pick an attacking midfielder which is where Alyssa Whinham could come into the mix.
4-3-3 was JK’s initial preference. She went away from that after the Aussie series where we were unable to stop their procession of shooting chances – also after Ria Percival and her unfathomable workrate were ruled out for the rest of the year with that ACL tear. There have been some positive signs with the 4-4-2 working those wingers and fullbacks up the line... but maybe not enough of them to make up for how often we end up playing with all four midfielders behind the ball, leaving the strikers feeding on long passes at best.
Anyway, Japan should have scored a third late on as the Ferns both tired and also turned to more inexperienced options. It was nice that they didn’t though. Hit the woodwork one time. Scooped another up over the top from a great position. Rightio.
A 2-0 defeat against a team like Japan is par for the course for the Ferns. Playing away to a very good team when missing several key players... shooting for par ain’t bad. This was a keep-busy tour. They’d eased a lot of pressure with two good wins last time and were never very likely to make it three in a row against Japan. However, a two game series against South Korea in Christchurch next month, that might be a different story...
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