Football Ferns vs South Korea: Squad Yarns & Preview
The last time the Footy Ferns played was only a few weeks ago. October 9 in Nagano, they lost 2-0 to Japan. That result was about as expected and we didn’t really learn anything new, although the team did at least get another tour’s worth of training sessions in as they build towards the next World Cup.
It may have only been four weeks ago that they last played but quite a lot has happened in that space. Most crucially was the World Cup draw. The Ferns now know that they’ll be facing Norway, Switzerland, and the Philippines in their three group stage games. One probable loss against Norway. One probable (and thus historic) win against the Philippines... lord willing. And one that could go either way against Switzerland therefore making that the game which’ll determine the direction their fate will go. Therefore making it the game that all these friendlies are preparing them fore. More on the draw ramifications in this Substack newsletter from a couple weeks ago.
With the draw all locked in for everyone, further friendlies can also be announced. Such as the January 2023 double-header against the defending world champion USA team. One game in Wellington, one game in Auckland. The USA are in a group based in Aotearoa so they want to have a training camp a few months out to prepare and this is what that looks like. Unfortunately the games are outside the FIFA windows so getting players released is going to be very difficult (whereas all the Americans will be in their NWSL offseason)... we normally lose by five goals when we play them with a top strength team so that could get ugly if the depth is stretched. But, like, what are you gonna do? Not play against the USA while they’re in town? Of course not.
Prior to the loss last month, the previous time that the Footy Ferns played Japan was also the previous time that they played a home game. It was in Wellington in 2018 and what was designed as a homecoming spectacle (after another long absence of home fixtures) ended up being a disaster which exposed Andreas Heraf as a menace and led to the end of the Andy Martin era of NZF. So shout out to the Football Ferns for that one. Still remember seeing promos for a tell-all documentary on Sky Sports about that which clearly never saw the light of day. Either somebody’s lawyer piped up or it was a Mandela Effect.
More than four years (and one global pandemic) later they’re playing at home again with a two-game series against South Korea – a team that we played twice in Jitka Klimková’s second tour in charge. That series saw a 2-1 loss and an unexpected 2-0 win both in Goyang. Favourite memories of that match include Liv Chance’s assists and the South Korea coach having a meltdown at the end of the second game. Now we’re facing them twice in Christchurch with the unfamiliar factor of home advantage in our favour. Something worth getting used to with the ol’ World Cup only getting closer and closer.
That means preparation time is also running out and although the Ferns have chipped away with some solid results when they’ve played teams ranked below them, getting anything out of teams above them remains more elusive. Obviously there’s a level of opponent that we’re simply never going to be reliably competitive against. The top 10-12 teams in the world will always be beyond our reach. They’ve all got deep professional set ups and massive populations. Heaps of financial investment. Gotta be realistic.
However there is a second tier that comes after that, in which South Korea exists and also arguably Norway and Switzerland. These teams are clearly better and more talented than the Football Ferns... but maybe, just maybe, with the right tactics and a hefty dose of luck, we can sneak some results off them. It’s happened once against South Korea already under this manager. They’ve got a chance to add to that in Christchurch.
Of course to do that they’re going to have to start scoring more goals. It’s too much to hope to be able to blank teams ranked in the top twenty and then snatch a sneaky one on the break late on. That’s a lovely formula when it works but it’s not going to work very often. More on some attacking ideas when we get to the strikers breakdown though.
Four initial changes from the last squad. Out are Hannah Wilkinson (a groin injury in ALW preseason), Alyssa Whinham (not selected), CJ Bott (presumably trying to garner favour at Leicester City in her first full season there – and apparently playing through a hip injury), and Hannah Blake (also not selected). Replacing them are Grace Wisnewski who is in line for a debut, Daisy Cleverley who made her return from injury for HB Køge last weekend, Ashleigh Ward who is also recently back after an injury, and Ava Collins who has been recalled probably in light of Wilkinson’s absence. Since then Anna Green has also been added to the group with Ali Riley staying behind to nurse a pesky hip issue.
It’s about as strong a squad as they could feasibly muster at this stage, with injuries not doing the team any favours. A couple partially-injured first teamers have been allowed to stay behind and rest up over the break/offseason and on top of that there’s the same recurring list of absentees (most of them hugely experienced) that have been missing for several tours now. Abby Erceg doesn’t really play friendlies so she’s not here. Rebekah Stott, Annalie Longo, and Ria Percival remain out with long/long-ish term injuries. Stott is nearing a return but not soon enough for this squad. At least that’s helped with some of the decisions. Nobody else who might’ve been selected has been a regular under Jitka Klimková. Let’s do the squad thing now.
GOALKEEPERS
Victoria Esson – Rangers, SCO (10/0)
Anna Leat – Aston Villa, ENG (9/0)
Erin Nayler - Umeå IK, SWE (78/0)
It’s a pity you can only play one goalkeeper at a time because if we were ranking the top performing kiwi pros right now then at least two, possibly even all three of this lot, would be there. Anna Leat’s taking advantage of a curious goalkeeping situation at Aston Villa to get a run of games and is winning plenty of fans. The four penalty shootout saves on debut against Manchester United most famously, though she also kept her first clean sheet in a win over Liverpool overnight. Her coach is going out of her way to praise her to the media. All good things.
Meanwhile Vic Esson has been alternating starts at Rangers but she played all four of the Champions League qualifiers and one freak own goal aside (which may not have even crossed the line) she was really impressive too. Yet to concede a goal in the SWPL... granted, neither has Jenna Fife, the other keeper (a Scottish international). But Esson’s doing well there at a team competing for silverware.
And Erin Nayler, following a mid-season dip out of the starting team, well and truly won her spot back down the stretch with Umeå. Unfortunately it wasn’t enough to avoid relegation so we’ll see what she gets up to next. Definitely won’t be back at UIK as she’s already said her farewells on IG. Might find another home in Sweden, might move on to further pastures. That’s a delicate balance as a goalie and one which Nayler knows well. She’s had stints in both England and USA where she never even played a league game and despite her 78 caps she might now be third choice for the Fernies so gotta find regular footy if she’s going to change that before the World Cup. Most A-League clubs seem to have their keepers sorted already but you never know. Regardless, love the competition for places in this position. As good as it has ever been.
DEFENDERS
Liz Anton – Perth Glory, AUS (13/0)
Mackenzie Barry – Wellington Phoenix, NZ/AUS (1/0)
Claudia Bunge – Melbourne Victory, AUS (14/0)
Ally Green - Vålerenga, NOR (2/0)
Anna Green – Sydney FC, AUS (80/8)
Meikayla Moore – Glasgow City, SCO (58/4)
Kate Taylor – Wellington Phoenix, NZ/AUS (5/0)
Ashleigh Ward – Southampton, ENG (2/0)
There’s a decent argument to be made that the Ferns top choice back four would be: Bott, Stott, Erceg, Riley. If that’s the case then none of them are here. Not a single one. It’s probably not the case because Claudia Bunge would likely find her way in there ahead of Stotty at this moment but still... not exactly full strength.
There’s also a worry here about match fitness. There are several A-Leaguers still only in preseason mode ans at least two of them are probably going to start. Actually, it might be a decent opportunity to give Kate Taylor a first international start in one of these games – especially as she’s one of the Christchurch girls in the team (along with Vic Esson, Meikayla Moore, Ashleigh Ward, and Gabi Rennie). But yeah the last time Anton, Barry, Bunga, and Taylor played a proper game was on the previous Footy Ferns tour.
Anna Green wasn’t even there for that... her signing with Sydney FC was a bit of a surprise as she seemed to have taken a step back from professional footy since returning from England a couple years back. But that World Cup is an enticing beacon on the horizon, ain’t it? Might as well have a crack at it. Green’s last Ferns tour was against Australia when she scored that incredible goal. You know the one. She wasn’t in this group initially but Ali Riley’s withdrawal made Green a natural replacement. She’s one of about four players who can cover left back in this group along with Ally Green and Ashleigh Ward who are natural LBs and also Liz Anton who has played there a few times.
Right back is more of a problem. Meikayla Moore could play there... but that means she won’t be in the middle. Moore is the only one of these defenders in the heart of her club season at the moment and even then she’s not always in every Glasgow City eleven. Other than the ALW players, Ward has only recently returned from injury while Ally Green barely got a go off the bench for Vålerenga as they (successfully) pushed for Champions League qualification late in the campaign.
Not ideal against a team like South Korea who will offer a decent threat going forwards. If the Ferns can’t hold them out then the chances of scraping a win or two quickly evaporate. They’re not going to win 4-3. They don’t score the goals for that. It’s gonna need to be tight at the back.
Klimková’s back four selections have sometimes been a tad annoying, to be honest. A few times we’ve seen her pick a quartet entirely of central defenders – Norway and Wales, it was, with Moore/Stott/Bunge/Anton being the group. Needless to say that’s an overly cautious defensive approach which also causes them to defend too narrow without much punch going forward. Hence it’d be nice to see Ally Green get her maiden start here. Ashleigh Ward played well on debut against South Korea too. Also Anna Green’s crossing ability puts her in the mix.
As for the right side... Moore would go fine, no doubt, and she can cross pretty handily too. But Katie Bowen started at RB against Japan and is surely the best option although it might not be a terrible idea to try Indi Riley there either given she plays RWB for Fortuna Hjørring. Specifically for the overlapping possibilities if JK wants to stick with a 4-4-2 formation.
MIDFIELDERS
Katie Bowen – Melbourne City, AUS (85/3)
Olivia Chance – Celtic, SCO (35/1)
Daisy Cleverley – HB Køge, DEN (22/2)
Betsy Hassett – Wellington Phoenix, NZ/AUS (135/14)
Malia Steinmetz – Western Sydney Wanderers, AUS (11/0)
Grace Wisnewski - Wellington Phoenix, NZ/AUS (0/0)
We’ve seen five different players start in central midfield since Ria Percival got injured. More specifically, since Klimková switched to a formation with two CMs we’ve seen pairings of: Hassett/Longo, Steinmetz/Longo, Hassett/Longo again, Hassett/Chance, and Steinmetz/Hassett. It seems like if everyone were fit then Ria Percival and Betsy Hassett would be the go. Percy won’t be back for at least a couple more months though, so in the meantime there’s still plenty to play for.
Malia Steinmetz should have the inside track thanks to some strong defensive efforts providing a nice balance to the side. She started in 0-0 draws with Czechia and Wales. Also the most recent game, the 2-0 loss to Japan. Played most of the 1-0 win over Mexico too after subbing in for Longo following her first half ACL tear. Basically, the Ferns have tended to play better when MS is in the eleven. Steinmetz’s case is further aided if Liv Chance is picked for a more attacking role (as she usually is) and if Katie Bowen plays right back. Daisy Cleverley is back from injury though and she has made seven starts under JK.
Also we’ve got Grace Wisnewski in this group, boosted up as the latest Phoenix player to rise into the international fold. Her combative energy in the middle has a lot in common with how Steinmetz plays but Wiznewski also gives a bit more in attack. Definitely one for the future more than the present so don’t expect her to start but she’s one who’ll play plenty for this team in the coming years and this is how that journey begins.
There are a few midfielders here at interesting junctures in their careers. Katie Bowen just had a rubbish year in the NWSL where North Carolina only gave her two league appearances all season. Unfortunately they only seemed to view her as the backup to Abby Erceg... not gonna get too many games that way. But Bowen is more adept at midfield and right back than she is at centre-back. A hugely versatile player only being considered for her third-best position? It was dumb. Thankfully she’s since done the expected thing and zipped over to the A-League for some pre-World Cup game time where she will be an important central midfielder for Melbourne City... effectively taking Rebekah Stott’s old spot.
Daisy Cleverley is in her first season as a professional. Grace Wisnewski is in her first senior international squad. Malia Steinmetz had a frustrating ALW season last time but has re-signed with Western Sydney as they’ve since changed managers so she’s presumably expecting plenty more starts. Betsy Hassett of course has packed her bags after several years in Iceland (and even more in Europe overall) to return home as the biggest signing for the Wellington Phoenix heading into year two. Only Liv Chance is in a stable club grind at the moment and it’s debatable whether she should even be classed as a midfielder in this squad. On that note, let’s talk goals and attack.
FORWARDS
Ava Collins – St John’s University, USA (5/0)
Jacqui Hand - Åland United, FIN (10/1)
Grace Jale – Canberra United, AUS (8/2)
Gabi Rennie – Arizona State University, USA (16/2)
Indiah-Paige Riley – Fortuna Hjørring, DEN (3/0)
Emma Rolston – Wellington Phoenix, NZ/AUS (13/6)
Paige Satchell – Wellington Phoenix, NZ/AUS (33/2)
Putting it nice and simply, if the Football Ferns are going to win games at the World Cup then they need to be better going forward. It’s no secret. We’re talking about a team that has scored 9 goals in 14 games under the current manager and that’s a slight improvement on how they were tracking before Klimková. They don’t score enough goals because they don’t create enough chances. They don’t have enough creativity. They often focus too much on the defensive aspects of their tactics. The bulk of their highest performing players specialise in defensive positions. Plus they also have this tendency towards playing teams that are better than them which automatically means it’s going to be harder to score.
The Ferns are never going to be a team that can bang them away with the likes of USA or England but that doesn’t meant they can’t do better. This is a team with heaps of heart and some class defenders. If they could put a goal or two away more consistently against good teams then results will follow. But they have to be able to put those teams under pressure. It can’t be ninety minutes of gutsy defending hoping for a nil-all draw or maybe a sneaky set piece winner against the run of play.
Okay, so how are they trying to achieve that? This might need further exploration after the Korea games but the switch to 4-4-2 has been about prioritising the wide areas. The Ferns want to be able to get down to the byline and put in crosses. A noble ambition, to be fair. Not being able to establish consistent combinations between fullbacks and wide midfielders has so far limited that endeavour but there’s definitely progress being made.
It’s one thing to get crosses in, it’s then another thing to have players to convert them. The preferred strike duo has been Hannah Wilkinson and Paige Satchell who are without doubt the two top candidates... but so far they haven’t shown any kind of ability to play together. Satchell can be a frustrating player as her scintillating speed and running angles get her into fantastic positions where her crossing/shooting just isn’t good enough. She’s improving fast, this is a consequence of the Ferns having to search for answers rather than letting them come naturally, meaning that Satchell is having to develop at the international level. But aside from that Satchell also has a tendency as a striker to drift wide and leave Wilkinson isolated.
The wide midfielders are often some combination of Olivia Chance, Katie Bowen, Indi Riley, Jacqui Hand, and occasionally CJ Bott. They’re tasked with a lot of defensive work in a flat midfield four and only Riley and Hand are specialist wide players with the dribbling/off-ball-running prowess to get as high up the flanks as we need them to. Chance can still do that by working with an overlapping fullback like Ali Riley but only once in the last seven games did they both start... and Chance was in midfield that day (2-1 vs Philippines and A.Riley scored the winner). The pieces don’t all fit together in this jigsaw puzzle and that’s a problem.
It might be that a bit of risk/reward needs to be implemented. Take away some of the wide defensive protection but bolster the attack by going back to that 4-3-3 shape that Klimková began with. You’d be able to pick Olivia Chance as a ten through the middle with her incisive passing able to bring the likes of Satchell and Hand/I.Riley into the game out wide as well as playing off the presence of Wilkie in the middle. Linking it all together. It’d keep the wingers higher. You’d get more touches for your most creative player (Chance). And you’d still be able to target those wings.
There’s no Wilkinson on this tour however there are four keen options to replace her in Grace Jale, Emma Rolston, Gabi Rennie, and Ava Collins. Might only be two World Cup spots available between them so heaps of motivation for them all to perform. Jale is the most like Wilkinson in how she plays... plus she probably deserves the chance to show what she can do given that, unlike the rest of them, she hasn’t really had that yet under Klimková. Only played off the bench so far.
Which brings us to the lack of Alyssa Whinham who was in the last squad but hasn’t been picked for this one. Thought maybe this was a good spot for her to make a debut in her hometown but it’s not gonna happen. Whinham has a level of attacking fizz that nobody else she’s competing with possesses yet she’s young and inexperienced and, most notably, unless they do revert to a 4-3-3 with a number ten then there isn’t an obvious position for her. Can’t play midfield. Isn’t direct enough for the style of winger that JK wants. Could be a false nine type but that’s not really how you pick a striker when you’re wanting to attack from the wide areas with crosses.
But then also it’s not like there’s a mystical solution simply waiting for the coach to realise it. Giving Whinham minutes is not going to solve everything at once (although I’d still way rather have at least seen what she can offer – for that matter Milly Clegg might also fall in the if-you’re-good-enough-you’re-old-enough category).
There’s been criticism about Hannah Wilkinson for example. Does she score enough goals against non-OFC teams? Well, no, not for what this team hopes to achieve. So in that light maybe they should look beyond her as an automatic selection too. In fairness nobody should be automatic... but if you drop Wilkie then who do you pick that’s better? The USA college students? The fellow A-League players who don’t score half as often as her in that same competition? Wilkinson’s strike rate is 27 goals from 108 caps. It’s not amazing but it’s a lot better than literally anyone else in contention, especially if we’re disregarding Oceania goals.
In fact, to prove that point, here’s the list of goals scored against non-OFC teams over the past ten years (Nov 2012 to Nov 2022)...
Hannah Wilkinson – 15
Amber Hearn – 14
Sarah Gregorius – 7
Rosie White – 6
Annalie Longo – 5
Ria Percival – 4
Betsy Hassett – 3
Anna Green, Katie Bowen, Meikayla Moore, CJ Bott, Gabi Rennie – 2
Not only is Wilkinson first (although only 2/15 were scored in the more recent five-year block within that stat... granted there was an ACL recovery and a pandemic that limited her appearances), but there isn’t another fit and active player on that list until Hassett with three. Anyway, she’s missing this tour so we get to see what the competition looks like regardless. Would rather see the Ferns continue to build combinations around her but we work with what we’ve got.
Piecing everything here together, the Niche Cache endorsed XI for the first game against South Korea would look something like this...
Esson | Bowen, Moore, Bunge, A.Green (either will do) | Steinmetz, Hassett | Chance | Hand, Jale, Satchell
But the actual team is probably going to more resemble this lot...
Esson | Bowen, Moore, Bunge, Anton | I.Riley, Steinmetz, Hassett, Chance | Jale, Satchell
While we’re at it, this was the team that started in the 2-0 win over South Korea a year ago...
Esson | Bott, Moore, Bowen, Ward | Cleverley, Percival, Hassett | Chance, Collins, Hand
The goals were scored that day by substitutes Paige Satchell and Gabi Rennie. Liv Chance assisted both of them. This is one-hundred-percent a South Korea side that the Football Ferns can get results against in Christchurch but the margin for error gets slimmer with every key player that’s absent and we’ve got about five preferred starters not playing these two matches. That certainly complicates expectations... but then nobody said this international footy thing was easy. This is as good a time as any for a few fringe starters to step up and have their say on some World Cup selection conundrums.
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