How Are The Wellington Phoenix Lads Looking Ahead of the A-League’s Return?
The A-League Men’s returns from its World Cup hiatus this weekend. Bit of a pause in proceedings to watch the Socceroos do their best against Argentina, see Welly Nix old boy Cammy Devlin gap it out of Qatar with Lionel Messi’s match-worm jersey. Now it’s time to reintroduce shrimps to barbecues.
The break probably came at a good time for the Wellington Phoenix following six games in which they found themselves scrambling for consistency. There were hints of the excellent team they have the potential to be this season only those hints have so far been spoiled by uncharacteristic sloppiness. But they’re close. They’re really close.
Despite only having one win from six games, things could have been drastically different if it wasn’t for that pesky dinner guest Mr Injury Time. Week one they conceded a 93rd minute Ben Halloran equaliser against Adelaide United, mere seconds away from the dub despite playing with ten men since the 25th minute. Week six they were 2-1 up against Western United with seven minutes left. They let Aleksandar Prijovic score in the 84th and then Alessandro Diamanti won it in the 95th.
Admittedly they’ve also scored an 88th minute equaliser against Central Coast and a 90th minute equaliser against Melbourne City so it does go both ways. But let’s just imagine the scenario where they hold on to win both those other games... suddenly they’d leap from eighth on the ladder (6 points from 6 games) to third place (10 points from 6 games). It’s a 26-game season and we’re only six games deep. Long way to go yet. Plenty of time to make up for the points they’ve already seen slide away – all it would take is a three or four game winning streak, one great month of footy, and they’d be right up there.
There’s only one undefeated team left this season and that’s Melbourne City, who have won every game except for one: a 2-2 draw against the Wellington Phoenix. Sam Sutton (79’) and Kosta Barbarouses (90’) with late goals that day as the Nix rallied back for a point that oughta prove they’ve got nothing to fear from anybody. City have also since lost coach Patrick Kisnorbo, by the way, who’s been promoted up the levels within City Football Group to take change of Troyes AC in the French top division. They could take a dip coming out of the break, who knows? If they do then it really would be anybody’s season.
Expectations were rightfully high for the Wellington Phoenix entering Ufuk Talay’s fourth season in charge. There’s a stable group of players, a full slate of home fixtures, some very enticing new signings, and a coaching regime that knows what they’re doing. Haven’t quite see that version of the Wellington Phoenix yet, certainly not over ninety minutes. But, again, they’re not actually that far off.
It’s too easy to say that the main problem has been their defence. Yeah, they’re conceding two goals per game and have only won once despite scoring in every fixture so obviously that’s the case. But simply blaming ‘the defence’ isn’t specific enough. Otherwise you could say it about any team that’s struggling. We’ve gotta dig down deeper into the weeds here.
One specific is that Oli Sail hasn’t quite been the same dude that he was last season. Six games isn’t a massive sample size but so far he’s made 16 saves and allowed 12 goals. A save percentage of 59.3%. Since he’s played every minute so far that means the team’s save percentage is identical to his save percentage. Okay then, how does the rest of the A-League stack up for that stat? Well, the Welly Nix are eighth. Same as their actual league standing.
In other words, they’re conceding at the rate a team in their position should be... but we know that they’re better than this because we know that Oli Sail, for one, is better than this. Every other season he’s had a save percentage of at least 70%. Clean sheets have never been a specific specialty (only 11 from 91 ALM starts) but that feels like more of a wider team issue.
Either Oli Sail is playing much worse than last season or Oli Sail has been unlucky with some of the shots he’s faced and over the course of the season we’ll see that save efficiency rise back towards his normal areas. There are a couple of goals that he’s been culpable for, such as Lachie Rose squeezing one underneath him for Macarthur or his wall placement for Diamanti’s free kick for Western United. Then again there have also been a few unsaveable barnstormers that’ve flown past him. We know how good Oli Sail can be at this level. Pretty sure this is one area where the Phoenix will naturally come right.
Weird fact: the Phoenix have only scored three goals prior to the 57th minute of matches this season (and then nine of them in the remainder of games). There’s definitely a case to say that they’ve been sloppy with their finishing. Kosta Barbarouses has missed a couple, including shanking a penalty in the last match. Oskar Zawada has only had two shots on target all season (13 shots in total, one goal). But according to Football xG’s numbers they’re way above their expected goals mark so that criticism doesn’t really land. Once more for the folks in the back rows: you’re allowed to miss chances, goal scoring it way more about quantity than efficiency, way better to score two goals from ten shots than one goal from two shots.
The Phoenix have scored 12 times from an xG of 8.3 for a +3.7 goals minus expected goals mark and that’s the most that any team in the ALM is exceeding their xG figure by. Which could be misleading given that xG is basically judged by what position on the pitch you are when you shoot so Ben Waine lobbing the keeper from outside the box against CCM was a much better chance than it would’ve gotten credit for. Clayton Lewis scored that free kick too. Having said that, it’s a cumulative stat so that suggests the Nix aren’t creating enough major chances outside of the ones that they score from which could easily come back to bite them.
However it’s pretty obvious that the bigger issue is how they’ve conceded 12 goals from an xG of 7.3. Only the second biggest differential in the comp thanks to a rather unlucky Western United team (16 goals/10.8 xG). Still a pretty disgusting figure. Granted that also tells you they’ve been on the wrong end of some very clinical finishing which surely won’t hold up over the course of a full campaign.
Of the twelve goals they’ve conceded, four have been scored from outside the penalty area and that’s a hectic ratio. A bit more pressure on the ball would help but sometimes a fella simply scores a screamer and there’s not much you can do about it. Beka Dartsmelia’s goal for Newcastle for example. James McGarry also scored a banger from outside the area in that game... though the Nix were pretty clearly getting dominated at the time so it’d be a lie to say those goals came outta nowhere.
A couple other goals have been conceded in transitional phases of play. Yan Sasse coughed up the ball just over halfway in the Melbourne City game and next thing Mario Tilio was pinging in City’s second of the day. The turnover was sloppy and it’s notable that Sasse was subbed off early that game (54 mins gone) and has barely featured since.
The Nix are a team that wants to build up from the back (they also love a direct counter attack of their own but that’s not always an option). As they steadily advance into the opposition half it allows their fullbacks to get high up the wings... and that in turn allows the two number tens to drift around and create overloads. Good yarns. Solid mahi. But if you cough the ball up mid-progression it ends up looking like this...
The centre-backs are exposed. The midfielders have to gap it back in desperation. The opposition can very easily find space attacking four vs four from the half. Trouble ensues. This has happened a few too many times when the team has been caught on the hop.
The Nix’s centre-back pairing has mostly been Scott Wootton and Joshua Laws. There was one game in which Tim Payne played CB (that City game, coincidentally) but he gave away a penalty for a handball trying to block a shot and found himself on the bench next time. Payne is a better defender than Laws while Laws is the better ball-player with that added bonus of being a left-footer, making a huge difference in their build-up stuff by opening up the angles. However a couple of goals conceded after Laws failed to win a header could endanger that combo coming out of the break. It might be that, build-up be damned, the Nix need that more dominant option of Payne instead. We shall see.
Wootton and Laws just haven’t been good enough, to be honest. They haven’t been the commanding forces that the team requires. Particularly Wootton since he’s an import with considerable experience and therefore there’s a responsibility on his shoulders to be that leader at the back in the mould of Andrew Durante or Steven Taylor before him.
Having said that, defending is a team endeavour. It’s all about organisation. Get that wrong and it doesn’t matter who you’ve got back there. Some folks may disagree with this but it seems like it’s less about individual errors and more about collective errors where the entire defensive unit isn’t doing the business (as opposed to the Welly Nix Women where it’s been the opposite: good structure let down but solo mistakes). Keep in mind that Scott Wootton is basically the only natural defender in the bunch: Callan Elliot was a winger coming up, Josh Laws and Sam Sutton were both midfielders, while Tim Payne played damn near everywhere.
That brings us to a particularly skunky pair of words: Set Pieces. If only this team could tighten up their set piece defending then none of those other wee dramas would matter. So far they’ve managed to concede from two corner kicks, a direct free kick, and a penalty. Nothing drives a coach wilder than set piece concessions, no sir/ma’am.
One of those corners was Ben Halloran’s late equaliser for Adelaide. Despite having all ten men back in the box deep in stoppage time holding a late lead at home having gotten a first half red card... nobody won the first contact and Halloran was left unmarked deep in the box. Oli Sail shuffled the wrong way and couldn’t get across to his post in time to make the save although admittedly he’d been smashed in the nuts in conceding the corner kick so mobility may have been compromised. A bad goal to concede in all facets.
The other corner kick leakage was the first goal Western United scored in their comeback, the goal that opened the gates for a probable Nix victory to escape down the road like a frisky housecat never to return. Again, it came from not winning the first contact. Instead a flick-on at the near post was headed in by an unchallenged Jacob Tratt inside the six yard box.
No doubt heaps of folks watched those goals screaming: put somebody on the bloody post! There’s a reason teams don’t really do that any more though. The logic is that it’s way more effective to have guys out preventing the other blokes from getting a shot away at all. Crowd things out. Get two dudes on their best option. Win the first contact. That kinda thing. Unfortunately the Nix didn’t do that either time... but this is something that can very specifically be worked on in training and luckily they’ve had a few weeks to do exactly that.
Elsewhere, while there’s definitely a lot of continuity within the squad growing out of the last couple seasons... there have been a lot of new signings in the attacking areas. Three new imports all signed to play in the front four plus a 50+ capped All Whites international too. If you add in Oskar Zawada, Bozhidar Kraev, Yan Sasse, and Kosta Barbarouses alongside David Ball and Ben Waine while also accounting for the continued development of Ben Old and Oskar van Hattum than that’s a lot of fellas competing for four starting spots.
That was deliberate. Ufuk Talay wanted a squad with enough depth to be able to bring genuine game-changers off the bench. Still, it stands to reason that Ufuk Talay didn’t quite know his best eleven coming into the season.
Nor has he fully figured it out since. The Welly Nix have used 18 players in six games. Only Melbourne City have used fewer... but the difference is that 17/18 of those Nix players have started games. Equal second-fewest players used yet the equal second-most starters. Oskar van Hattum is the lone wolf to have played but not started yet. One of the major traits of Uffie as a coach is that he rewards good performances with recurring starts, no matter who you are, and doesn’t hesitate to swing the axe when the team loses. When the team has only won one outta six that leaves plenty of room for the latter. Chuck in some injuries and a suspension too and here we are.
Even more to the point is that Oli Sail and Scott Wootton are the only two Wellington Phoenix players to have started every game. No other club is already down to that few ever-present starters. The bros at Western Sydney Wanderers, whom the Nix face in their return game on Saturday, are second on the ladder and that probably has a lot to do with having had ten separate guys start every game. They’ve had the same starting eleven in five of six matches. The Nix named a different starting eleven in every match until the most recent one (coming off a victory, not coincidentally)...
Same as most of these other concerns, the line-up changes should come right in due course. A few weeks off will ensure the lads are fit and focussed for Saturday (and beyond), as well as giving the coaches the room to pick a team based on the season as a whole rather than getting stuck in that cycle of each selection being a reaction to the previous game’s problems. The imports are settling in. A few of the chaps who needed it were able to get some match-time with the reserves – including Alex Rufer on return from injury and Yan Sasse who scored a lovely goal.
Going all the way back to the start of this article: they’re close. And there are a lot of areas in which we can expect them to make significant improvements as the A-League resumes. The break is over. The fellas are ready. Let’s get these dubs.
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