A Post Mortem Of The Wellington Phoenix’s Elimination Final Defeat

The ruthless thing about finals footy is that it takes an entire season to earn your spot there and then it can all be over after one measly game. One measly, close, competitive game even. Third-placed Western United weren’t miles better than sixth-placed Wellington Phoenix but they didn’t have to be. Being just a little bit better was enough to add another year without a finals win to the Welly Nix tally. Still gotta go back to 2012 and a late Paul Ifill penalty against Sydney FC for the last one of those bad boys.

That’s the way it goes come finals time. Nobody flukes their way this far, both teams are going to back themselves, yet only one can advance. The Phoenix have had plenty of games this term in which bad has turned to worse and they’ve been utterly and battered into defeat. This was not one of them. This was two tough teams caught in a tricky tactical battle and while the Nix created enough to maybe justify an equaliser... it wasn’t to be. That’s finals footy.

This isn’t going to be an article about how great this team did to make it this far. That one’s already been written. The sentiment’s still true but there’s no need to repeat things. Instead this yarn is purely about that one specific game and how it unfolded... as well as what the Wellington Phoenix might need to do in order to avoid this fate next season should they find themselves in the same spot.

Game 27 of the A-League season for the Nix carried on the same trend as the previous 26. The 15 times that the Nix have scored first, they’ve won 12 and drawn 3. The 12 times that they’ve conceded first they’ve lost all 12. That’s not a random coincidence. It’s not a fluke. This is a team whose strength is in their counter attacking and they struggle against deep defensive lines which is exactly what John Aloisi’s Western United gave them even before Aleksandar Prijović’s tenth minute goal but especially after it.

The Phoenix had long stretches of possession, especially in the first half, where they moved the ball around with ease but hardly managed to achieve anything with it. They had it all under control until they reached the block and then it broke down, time after time. These were the half-time stats...

Six shots but only one on target (a Reno Piscopo low strike from outside the box which Jamie Young tipped wide) with an xG of 0.14... not a lot going on there despite 68% of possession. Compare that to Western United who attempted fewer than half the passes of the Nix that half yet created far better opportunities.

Basically, Western United got exactly the game they wanted. They’re a seriously good defensive team who earlier on in the season made 1-0 wins a habitual thing. Only Melbourne Victory conceded fewer goals this ALM term than Western’s 30 goals in 26 matches. Compare that to 49 conceded by the Phoenix. They took an early lead and could therefore take fewer risks at the back, instead staying organised and seeking to pounce on any Phoenix slip-ups.

This is how WU like to play. When the Nix beat them a couple times during the regulars a major part of that success was scoring early and drawing Western out of their shells, forcing them to try something else. Both those ALM wins involved the Nix scoring within the first half hour. This time that went the other way and look what happened.

To be totally honest, the 2021-22 version of the Phoenix was kinda one-dimensional. It wasn’t their fault, they just sorta got stuck in that place thanks to all the injuries. Didn’t have the luxury of options. The return of Clayton Lewis for this game (and the last half of the previous game) did make a huge difference as it gave them a composed, technically strong operator in midfield. The midfield is where control is found. No surprises that the Nix struggled for control while they had converted winger Gael Sandoval and inexperienced Nick Pennington in those positions.

Pennington is at least a natural midfielder but he has a tendency to alternate between sneakily impressive and bafflingly wild from one act to the next. This was his first season in the A-League. He only played sparingly off the bench prior to Alex Rufer’s injury which thrust him into a starting role and he often had to play with unexpected CM partners which definitely wouldn’t have helped. It is what it is. Same as with all the young/inexperienced dudes in this squad he’ll be better for the journey.

Lewis added control which in turn allowed the Nix to actually hold some possession and work their way into some dangerous areas... but that was where the plan fell short. At their best this has been a counter-attacking team with Jaushua Sotirio heavily involved running in behind the lines. Fun fact: the Welly Nix had a -15 goal difference for the regular season but that GD was dead even at 0s in the minutes that Sotirio was on the pitch. Only two guys were ahead of him in that stat: Lewis at +1 and Reno Piscopo +3. Curiously Ben Waine was last at -21... he lost his spot once Sandoval was signed and didn’t play a lot during the seven-game unbeaten streak (whilst getting lots of time in the four defeats prior and playing all 180 mins in the 6-0 and 5-0 consecutive losses later on). More or less explains that one.

That’s fine but Sotirio was only just back from injury and probably not fit to start. He did have some success against WU with a double in the 4-1 win awhile back so the deep defensive line wasn’t an issue. But then you’d have had to drop one out of Piscopo, Sandoval, David Ball, and Gary Hooper. The four highest pedigree attacking players in the group and they were all fit and available. Something that hasn’t been the case most of the season... in fact this was only the second time that the full quartet had started together. The previous time was the 2-1 win over Western United that earned the Nix their first three pointer of the campaign way back when. Gael Sandoval’s debut.

Therein lies the problem. It’s pretty hard to build combinations when blokes aren’t playing together. Especially guys with contrasting styles like this. Ball is a workhorse. Hooper did some gorgeous hold-up stuff in this game but at his best he’s a penalty area hound. Piscopo and Sandoval are both ball-dominant players who want to pull strings. Hooper doesn’t really move that much off the ball, not the most mobile dude, whilst Ball often moves too much. Sandoval and Piscopo have issues with tempo. There’s absolutely no reason why that couldn’t have been an absolutely killer quartet but they needed more time to figure it all out.

Hence nothing much happened on attack in the first half. Hence why Gael Sandoval and Gary Hooper were both subbed off in the 54th minute for Soritio and Ben Old. A couple of imports sacrificed early for a pair of mobile domestic players who’d at least give that Western United defence something else to think about. David Ball was then replaced quarter of an hour later and jeez when you’re down 1-0 in an elimination game with twenty to go and the camera cuts to the bench where your three attacking imports are sitting all in a row like that... not ideal.

Those are the players who are supposed to lead you in these big moments. The guys you sign to help win you these exact games. To be fair, Ball was playing with a busted toe and Hooper only just got back from injury but damn. That was jarring.

It worked, at least to some degree. The Nix certainly got more dangerous as the game went along and were so bloody close to levelling things up on a couple of occasions. Ben Old missed a fantastic chance with a header he couldn’t get a hang of. Reno Piscopo rattled one off the crossbar. And of course there was The Save.

James McGarry could have put his header a little higher, a little lower, or a bit closer to the post. It wasn’t a perfect nod... but it wasn’t far off. Plenty of power on it. But the way that Jamie Young was able to reach behind himself and scrape it away was nothing short of astounding. Add in the context of the save and it’s honestly as good as you’ll see. Nothing you can do but shrug and applaud it.

In a game of fine margins, Western United produced the moment of highest quality and that’s often how these things are decided. Defensively the Nix were alright. They had a lot of trouble in the first half dealing with those transitional attacks where WU would invite them forward then pounce on the ball and quickly attack in behind the fullbacks. A deliberate strategy which should probably have led to more success but for an average ability to capitalise and some typically strong Oli Sail goalkeeping.

But while they got bent a few times, they never broke. 18 year old Finn Surman had a fantastic game full of courageous blocks and towering headers. His best performance yet which tells you a couple of things about the guy: Surman is someone who rises to the big occasion, he didn’t have much trouble in a back four, and his potential is absolutely through the roof if he can already deliver that kinda showing in a finals game.

We also got the standard assured Scott Wootton performance that we’ve come to expect. The other imports may not have delivered at finals time but Wootton did very little wrong. It was just that one moment ten mins in when Sam Sutton overhelped inside and Piscopo was nowhere to be seen tracking back and Prijović produced a superb finish which Sail got a hand to but couldn’t keep out. Again, fine margins.

Those fine margins are why we can’t go too hard on the post-mortem. The Nix could have won with this exact performance. It was a close game and that first goal, even as early as it came, was every bit as decisive as we all suspected it would be. But how do they stretch those margins out a little wider so they’re not relying on the mercy of the fates?

They’re honestly not that far away. Ufuk Talay is a very good coach who knows what he’s doing and we’ve seen Phoenix teams of his that are capable of scoring goals in a variety of ways. Using the width. Underlapping runs and cut-backs. All manner of set pieces. Shots from distance. Counter attacks. Early runs in behind the defence. Aerial crosses. All traits of his Phoenix teams over the last three seasons. This season they were a lot more one-dimensional because of the injuries so for starters they need a bit more luck on the injury front, no surprises there.

It’s not only luck though. Gary Hooper played two full seasons with the Nix and made 19 combined starts. His injury history is the only reason he was a viable signing – otherwise he’d still be playing in the English Championship – but twice now that risk has come back to bite the Wellington team in the finals. He was injured for the 1-0 loss to Perth two years back and only got 54 mins in the 1-0 loss to Western United on Saturday. No goals in either and the Nix’s top striker played less than a third of the combined minutes. The best ability is availability as they say. Whoever they recruit to replace him is hopefully gonna be a little more durable.

David Ball is still under contract for next season but Sandoval and Piscopo might also have played their last games for the club. It appears that Jaush Sotirio has as well going by rumours linking him to the Newcastle Jets. Piscopo will have options. Thing is, this is the A-League. None of these players are so good that they can’t be replaced... after which it becomes about balance and perhaps there’s a more compatible top choice quartet out there that they could find. You never know.

Then the other thing is trusting that, same as with Finn Surman, blokes like Ben Waine and Ben Old in particular will continue to take significant leaps forward. There’s no way that Ben Old could have expected he’d play 24 times for the club this season, making ten starts and playing a significant role in a finals match. He’s already ahead of schedule. Next step for him is the same thing that Reno Piscopo only moderately managed to do this season and that’s to tune up his final product. One goal and one assist in 1041 minutes for Old. No dramas in year one but year two needs to tally up. Ben Waine just scored six times in a season that felt like a slight downer for him so next time he should probably be commanding a starting gig. Sam Sutton is another one. Big breakthrough campaign for him so where does he take it from here?

The great thing is that the Wellington Phoenix do have a headstart. They already have 15 players contracted for next season including Surman and Oskar van Hattum moving up to full pro status. Plus Ufuk Talay has another year to run on his own contract. Oli Sail is one who has some transfer buzz about him but if he does leave it’ll come with a tasty fee since he’s got another year to run.

15 players is a really solid core to build from, the kind of continuity that the Nix haven’t had for years. The spine of the team is already sorted. That continuity is huge... and it also leaves enough room in the squad to be able to go hard at new recruitments who can take this team to the next level.

Because it’s a measure of what this team has become during Talay’s tenure that nobody is going to be happy with simply making the finals. They want to win playoff games and go deeper into the comp. A couple sharp signings, some better injury luck, continued growth from the youngster, and a proper slate of actual home games... put all that together and there’s no reason why they couldn’t. Hopefully they do because losing finals games isn’t much fun, gotta be honest.

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