Flying Kiwis – Chris Wood 2022-23 Season Preview
When Chris Wood signed for Newcastle United back in January, the club were in a state of suppressed panic. Eddie Howe had taken over as manager from Steve Bruce a month or so earlier and had overseen an uptick in performances... but not in results. They’d won just once in nineteen matches (funnily enough against Chris Wood when he was still at Burnley). Despite the gazillion dollar takeover the Magpies were staring down the barrel of relegation.
To make matters worse, their top striker Callum Wilson had gotten injured in late December and was expected to miss the next several months. They were five points adrift from safety and the January transfer window was about their only hope to turn things around quickly enough. Chris Wood was one of the blokes that they turned to, triggering a release clause in his Burnley deal. He arrived at the exact halfway point of the season.
Needless to say there was criticism. Newcastle fans had gone from begging their club to sign absolutely anybody in previous seasons to expecting their team to sign absolutely everybody so a 30 year old New Zealander best known for banging away goals at old fashioned Burnley was not exactly what they’d asked for in their letters to Santa Claus. But Howe had a plan. He wasn’t gonna risk guys who’d need time to adjust to the league and to his team. He signed Wood, he signed England right back Keiran Trippier, he signed defenders Dan Burn and Matt Targett. All experienced Premier League performers. He also signed Brazilian midfielder Bruno Guimaraes in a big money splash but Bruno was very much the exception to the trend.
With that context in mind, Chris Wood’s arrival made much more sense. He was still seen as a stopgap option by a lot of pundits but a perfectly reasonable one who could help them out of this immediate jam. And whilst he only scored two goals in 1,327 minutes for the Toon... his physical presence up front gave them direction in attack and his lay-off game helped bring their wide players into the mix. They regularly used him as an aerial outlet.
All of a sudden the club’s fortunes began to change. After a 1-1 draw against Watford in his debut (conceding a late equaliser), Newcastle won their next three matches in a row. In fact it wouldn’t be until Wood’s ninth appearance that he finally lost a game with his new team (a 1-0 defeat to Chelsea). The difference was quite remarkable...
Newcastle pre-Wood signing:
19 GM | 1 W | 8 D | 10 L | 19 GF | 42 GA | -23 GD | 11 PTS
Newcastle post-Wood signing:
19 GM | 12 W | 2 D | 5 L | 25 GF | 20 GA | +5 GD | 38 PTS
From sitting nineteenth in mid-January to finishing comfortably in eleventh. Can’t give all the credit to The Woodsman of course since he didn’t even play in all those games (17 apps, 15 of them starts) but you definitely have to give him at least some credit. His manager was quick to shout out his selfless efforts at pretty much every opportunity.
But that stopgap tag still remains. Newcastle are now in a realm where they’re linked with every other joker on the market and whether there’s any truth to those rumours or not (usually not) the tabloids tend not to avoid a cheeky dig about “Chris Wood’s replacement” or whatever. As if he didn’t only just sign eight months ago.
The idea pervades that Wood came in to do a short-term job and that he’s now completed his mission, with the expectation that he’ll fall back into being a peripheral squad member, swiftly replaced by someone much flashier, and eventually loaned out to some less ambitious club – probably one in need of a reliable target man whose goals and efforts can help them avoid relegation. Which, in fairness, is not the worst outcome. If that scenario comes true for Wood then sweet as, he’d probably still be an in-demand Premier League contributor. He’s built up that reputation already – it’s why Eddie Howe wanted him in the first place.
Yet that’s not what it looks like coming into this 2022-23 season. Chris Wood is obviously behind England international Callum Wilson in the pecking order. Wilson is a fantastic player who has a relationship with Eddie Howe going back to their Bournemouth days. He was already the top choice dude in that position, in fact Wood probably wouldn’t have been signed had it not been for Wilson’s injury. We saw at the very end of last season that Wilson > Wood in Howe’s selections and nothing has changed since then.
Nothing has changed... in good ways as well as bad. Wood has mostly played second fiddle to Wilson in preseason and there doesn’t appear to be any attempt to tweak the formation to accommodate them both together (even though that combination looks great on paper – the standard Big Man/Little Man strike duo). However Wilson remains an injury risk. Fitness worries kept him in cotton wood during preseason to the extent that he even had his own individual training regime. Durability is this bloke’s biggest issue... meaning that Chris Wood is absolutely going to get a heap of starts throughout the season not only when Wilson is injured but also when the fixture list gets crammed up.
Indeed there could even be some games where Wood is preferred for tactical reasons. Wilson is objectively a better player. He’s fast and skilful, with superb movement and a great ability to finish. But Wood does have some things in his favour when you compare them. His height means he provides a different kind of outlet. Not only in attack but also he’s an extra body can drop into the defensive zone for set pieces and win clearing headers. Wood presses from the front more often and slightly more effectively than Wilson does. Wilson is the stronger passer and he creates better for others yet Wood’s specific ability to hold the ball up and either lay it off or stretch the play out to the wings is always of value. Wood can’t really dribble whereas Wilson is excellent at it, however he plays well with his back to goal. Nobody won more aerial duels than The Woodsman last season. There will be games where those skills are of more value.
And it’ll definitely be Chris Wood backing Wilson up because, with the new season only days away, Newcastle still haven’t any new forwards. Chris Wood is the only pure attacking player that they’ve signed since the takeover. There have been attempts. Newcastle went after young Frenchman Hugo Ekitike in both the last two transfer windows only for the fella to end up joining Paris Saint-Germain instead. Armando Broja is another they’ve sought after but he’s probably joining West Ham. James Maddison is the latest rumour. So far no dice though. In fact they’ve released Dwight Gayle so the striking depth is even shallower.
Eddie Howe: “No one has ever doubted Callum’s ability. He is an outstanding striker and he showed that coming back from a long injury and performing well at the end of the season. I would love him to have an injury free campaign. Chris Wood did very well for the team last year and he is still with us and has trained very well. We have others who can fill that role so we are not one dimensional. Saint-Maximin has played there, Joelinton too. And also we have the transfer market still an active thing for us.”
(Not ideal that the gaffer had to remind media that Chris Wood still exists... but a few goals in a hurry will put an end to that oversight)
The transfer window is open until the end of August so there’s plenty of time yet. There’s a harsh lesson being learned about being one of the world’s wealthiest clubs though... you ask about a player and you get quoted exorbitant fees. Newcastle have tried to be firm about these things so as not to be taken advantage of but the empty outcomes suggest that maybe they’re being a bit too inflexible. Granted they have made three really nice defensive additions: CB Sven Botman, GK Nick Pope, and LB Matt Targett. Botman is a Swedish international joining from Lille. Pope is Wood’s old bro from relegated Burnley. Targett was already at Newcastle but has made his loan permanent.
The proposed Ekitike move offers a funky insight as the 20yo would not have been expected to come in and play an immediate first eleven role. He’d have been someone to complement Wilson (and to a lesser extend Wood) rather than replace them. Plus Ekitike has the versatility to be able to play wide in the front three as well, increasing the ways in which he can contribute without stepping on anyone’s toes. That seems to be the plan: that their preferred striker is a younger, developmental player... rather than an immediate replacement for Chris Wood.
Two things can be true. Chris Wood was excellent for Newcastle last season and a major part of how they turned things around... but he also didn’t score enough goals. The fact that his streak of 10+ Premier League goals came to an end is evidence enough of that.
But there were good reasons for that and none of them involve a drastic loss of ability. We’re not talking about a blooper reel of missed sitters or anything. His finishing was a bit mud in the first half of the season when he was still at Burnley. He scored 3 goals from an xG of 4.97 with the Clarets. Compare that to his Newcastle stint where he scored 2 goals from an xG of 3.25. Below expectation? Sure, but not by any crazy amount.
| Team | Season | Minutes | Goals | xG | Shots/90min | xG/90min |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Burnley | 2017-18 | 1639 | 10 | 7.64 | 2.20 | 0.42 |
| Burnley | 2018-19 | 2603 | 10 | 9.13 | 2.01 | 0.32 |
| Burnley | 2019-20 | 2462 | 14 | 17.23 | 2.38 | 0.63 |
| Burnley | 2020-21 | 2765 | 12 | 12.95 | 2.28 | 0.42 |
| Burnley | 2021-22 | 1403 | 3 | 4.97 | 1.92 | 0.32 |
| Newcastle | 2021-22 | 1331 | 2 | 3.25 | 1.42 | 0.22 |
Looking at that table, you can see he actually under-delivered against his xG in the previous two seasons with Burnley too, not that you hear anyone complaining after tallies of 14 goals (17.23 xG) and 12 goals (12.95 xG). Nah, the biggest difference at Newcastle was simply that he wasn’t taking as many shots.
It was obvious just from watching the games. The service wasn’t there. Kieran Trippier’s crossing ability was a huge reason why he was bought except injury meant he and Wood hardly shared the pitch. Ryan Fraser had his moments but Allan Saint-Maximin tends to want to beat three defenders before even considering a cross. Gotta remember that Wood signed mid-season and so there wasn’t much much time for his new teammates to adjust to the types of runs that he makes and the types of crosses that he desires (and vice versa).
Also Newcastle didn’t suddenly start scoring in bundles in the second half of the campaign. The revival stemmed from defence – Newcastle conceded 2+ goals in 12/19 games to start things and then in only 2/19 down the back stretch. 1-1 draws became 1-0 wins. That’s how they did it. Wood helped them keep more possession with better territory which was part of that transformation... but the point is that they were always a flawed attacking team. With Wood and without Wood. With Wilson and without Wilson too.
This time Eddie Howe’s had an actual preseason to ingrain a few more ideas, get everybody on the same page. That goes far beyond Chris Wood. They didn’t look particularly flash in attack across their various friendlies although friendly games are misleading at best so it’s always best not to overthink such things. The lack of attacking transfers (so far) is certainly a worry but if there’s anything to offset that fear it’s the prospect of a more cohesive attacking unit via the training paddock. Drill in a few patterns of play and all that. Instil some common expectations. All them good things.
Nobody’s expecting Newcastle to rip their way into the Champions League places in such a hurry but given the finances at their disposal that does have to be the long term goal. It’s doubtful that Chris Wood gets to hang around ‘til then, at least not in a prominent playing role. So it goes, it’s all in the game.
However the appointment of Eddie Howe and the way that the club has backed him so far suggests that they realise you can’t simply buy your way into immediate success. Not even in professional football. Right now, Newcastle United are building foundations for the future. Chris Wood is a part of that journey. He won’t be a part of it forever... but his character arc isn’t over yet, no way.
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