The Wellington Phoenix Blokes Are Nine Games Unbeaten And Truckin’ Along
If you managed to stay up until 2am NZT watching the Wellington Phoenix lads draw nil-all away to Perth Glory then congratulations, you’ve unlocked the Hearty Fan badge. If you didn’t then that’s okay, you didn’t miss much. A few slippery Ben Old dribbles and a lot of efficient passing across the back three. That’s about it. The imports gave it a nudge after they were subbed on but yeah nah not the most eventful game that’s ever unfolded.
You know what though? That’s fine. This isn’t something that we’re used to but the Wellington Phoenix are on a different plane these days. They’re sitting top of the table and trying to stay there, eight games away from a potential premiership – and just as importantly a home finals match-up. Right now they’re in accumulation mode. Not every game is made equal and there are those, such as when you kickoff at midnight in the Distance Derby, where a draw becomes a worthy prize.
The Nix just completed a stretch in which seven of their past ten games were played in Australia. They only lost one of them and that was the first (3-1 vs Sydney FC). Lots of draws in there, sure, but they won 6/10 games prior so they’re doing alright. This is a rare season in which none of the powerhouse teams that usually dominate are doing so. The season is wide open. The stars have aligned for the Welly Nix to do potentially something special... and, in order to take advantage, there is a level of pragmatism which that requires. Settling for a point in Perth falls very much into that category. Just ask the coach...
Giancarlo Italiano: “I’m very happy, it was a solid point. The fact that we’ve picked up four points away from home in two games, we’ve had some injury concerns and bringing back players. I’m very happy.”
Those injury concerns have been pretty frisky. Part of the reason this team was winning so many games to start with was how consistent they were able to stay with their selections. There were eight players who started every single one of the first 13 matches of this campaign, a streak broken when Tim Payne’s red card suspension kicked in. But since then it seems that their luck has balanced out. Payne’s also missed another game injured. Alex Rufer has been suspended for one and injured for another. Same deal with Nico Pennington whose knock also kept him out of this Perth game. Bozhidar Kraev missed a game hurt then only returned off the bench against the Glory. Kosta Barbarouses didn’t play that Glory match at all. Those eight players who’d missed zero starts across the first 13 have missed a combined 11 starts in the six games since. It’s now only the defensive triumvirate of Alex Paulsen, Scott Wootton, and Finn Surman who are holding down that ever-present status.
And yet they’re on a nine-game unbeaten streak. This squad has been tested in new ways lately, and they’ve found new solutions. The use of a back three with Isaac Hughes stepping up has kept things solid in defence while the midfield’s been under-strength. Fin Conchie has come into prominence with his first couple of starts. Oskar van Hattum was an unused sub against Perth but he’s begun to deliver a few assists. All academy lads, of course. This team’s entire depth is drawn from the academy so that goes without saying.
Among his many virtues, Chiefy gives really interesting answers to media questions, often offering a window into his tactical thinking. One thing that he specifically mentioned in his post-game presser in Perth was how his team wasn’t really set up to counter attack on that night, outside of Ben Old doing solo things. Old still provided his usual cut-and-thrust from the left but on the other side lurked Fin Conchie, who is more of a central midfielder by trade. And it was that CM’s skill set which earned him a deployment as a number ten. The plan was to combat the way that Perth defend – specifically how they double back with their wingers. Basically, Italiano chose a centralised player, good in those open areas, in order to draw that winger away and leave free space out wide for the overlapping wing-back (Tim Payne). Hence why Conchie was picked out of position ahead of Oskar van Hattum. All a deliberate ploy, probably one of many within the greater tactical duel.
Another thing Italiano spoke about was the winning mentality of his players. How they want to win games, how they want to win trophies. How they believe those things are possible. It may have been a satisfying nil-all against Perth but that’s not to say they didn’t still go for it. Especially in the second half after Oskar Zawada, Bozhidar Kraev, and Youstin Salas were all subbed on. Zawada and Kraev had headers. Salas a long-range piledriver. Ben Old also hit the post. The team was designed with defensive solidity in mind but for sure they had their outlets – much of which stemmed from Tim Payne getting forward and swinging in crosses (remember that point about Conchie/Salas drawing the wing cover away from those areas).
There’s been a lot of chat trying to compare the cultural impacts across Aotearoa of the Warriors in the NRL and the Phoenix in the A-League. Forget about all that because it’s redundant. The Nix and Warriors operate on different scales... but the Nix will continue to snowball in hype as they near the finals (which, after all, was when the Up The Wahs stuff peaked). These things happen organically... and you can kill a plant by overwatering just as easily as not watering it at all.
Nah, the far more interesting comparison between those two NZ teams in Aussie comps is the sporting one. You know, like how the Warriors and Phoenix have both taken massive leaps forward under first-year Australian coaches, with a renewed emphasis on their own homegrown youngsters, featuring resurgent individual campaigns from local legends (Shaun Johnson & Kosta Barbarouses), and a sense of rising legitimacy from week to week. There was a word that Johnson himself used several times to describe that Warriors team: Resilient. The same is abundantly true of these Wellington Phoenix lads.
That resilience, same as it did with the Warriors, stems from the relationship between those two aforementioned elements: good coaching and strong mentality. There are plenty more veges that go into this stew but as far as resilience goes, that’s where it’s at. And like any good resilient sports team that virtue is best displayed through their defensive mahi.
Honestly, the Nix’s defence deserves the full article treatment, and perhaps it’ll get that soon, but for now a handful of paragraphs at the end of this yarn will suffice. Two months ago the story was that the Nix took the fewest shots but were the most effective with them, and allowed the most shots but those were the least effective. This was as-of early January...
That stat always felt unsustainable and things have levelled out since then. But only by a little bit. The Phoenix are no longer allowing the most shots thanks to Macarthur’s own generosity... but with conversion rates of 5% of total shot attempts and 19% of shots on target, they still lead the way there. Might also just add that Welly Nix opponents may take the most shots but they get the lowest percentage of those on target.
Expected Goals For: 25.6 (Last)
Total Shots Per Match: 10.32 (Last)
Goals Per Shot: 0.13 (Third)
Goals Scored Per Match: 1.6 (Tenth)
Expected Goals Against: 27.1 (Seventh)
Total Shots Against Per Match: 17.42 (Second)
Goals Per Shot Against: 0.05 (First)
Goals Conceded Per Match: 1.0 (First)
Easy explanation for that one: the Phoenix allow teams to shoot from distance in order to prevent more dangerous efforts. So not only are a lot of those shots flying off target but many more are also getting blocked (which is classed as a shot off target also – seeing as you can’t kick the ball through a person). You know who’s blocked the most shots this season? Mark Natta of Newcastle with 26... however Finn Surman is right there behind him with 25, while Scott Wootton’s 19 is tied-fourth. Then of course Alex Paulsen’s shot-stopping takes care of the rest.
In attack they’re not quite the well-oiled machine that they’d like to be, with the transitional attacks of the early rounds having been largely limited by teams realising that they can’t be so fast-and-loose against this side. Ben Old’s ability to drop and collect the ball around halfway, then spin through pressure and charge forward has retained some of that threat but they’ve still only scored 8 goals in their past 7 games. They’re a team that likes to work for the best possible opening before shooting, the inverse of their defensive strategy in practice though identical in theory: Quality over Quantity. It’s just that the problem with wanting to make that extra pass for a better opportunity is that if you can’t get to that better pass then you end up with nothing.
In the same way as the Perth away game was a satisfied point, so was the Central Coast homer on Waitangi Day. Both were mutually acceptable goalless draws. Those being two of the three lowest xGA tallies that the Nix have experienced all season... but at the cost of the third and fourth worst xG tallies for themselves. The other xGA match in the same ballpark was the 2-0 win against Western United straight after the CCM one. But then we know that they’ve been without key players this month so adjustments had to be made. Really, that’s the defining factor. They’ve taken away from their attack to sure up the defence at a time when they’ve been short-handed.
In that context, suddenly this becomes an encouraging prospect rather than a concerning one. The thing about defensive solidity and mental resilience is that those traits transfer entirely into knockout footy. There seems to be this growing reputation about the Welly Nix and their Timewasting Dark Arts... well, they only ever say that about the teams who hold late leads. The ones who blow those leads get no praise. The ones who never had those leads get no attention at all. This is a team which knows to close the door behind them.
It’s also a team whose best striker has not started a game since December. In fact Oskar Zawada (a brilliant finisher who has scored five times from just 18 total shots) and Ben Old (a brilliant creator who’s still learning how to deliver the end product) have played a mere 205 minutes together this season, never once finding themselves in the same starting line-up. Chuck in Kosta Barbarouses and Bozhidar Kraev around them, perhaps a bit of Nico Pennington bursting forward or Youstin Salas whom we’ve only seen in a couple of (very promising) substitute stints so far... there’s so obviously more to come from this team if they can get everyone fit and available at the same time right around when the finals roll around.
The time for hedging bets has been and gone. No matter how it ends (and the higher the ambition, the more chance of heartbreak, that’s the price of doing business), the mere fact that the Wellington Phoenix have a team that is capable of winning the A-League Men’s competition means that it is our duty as fans and well-wishers to have faith in that possibility. Even it being a mere possibility feels like uncharted territory. One week at a time. Game by game. But allow yourself to dream too.
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