Observations From The Third Auckland FC vs Wellington Phoenix Derby
For the third time out of three, Auckland FC emerged from the NZ Derby with three points... but this win was not like the others. This win was a dismantling. This was a demolishing of the Wellington Phoenix as a concoction of goals from Neyder Moreno and Logan Rogerson plus a late Jesse Randall strike for good measure set up a 6-1 victory – one of the heaviest defeats that the Nix have ever had inflicted upon them.
The Port was rocking amidst a record crowd of 27,009 and an Adelaide United defeat on Sunday means that Auckland FC are now eight points clear in first place. Meanwhile, the Wellington Phoenix had better get their wound-licking done quickly because they’re now nine points adrift of the top six with only nine games left to remedy that situation.
The Demolition
Ninety seconds into this game the Wellington Phoenix won a free kick on the edge of the area, thanks in part to a delicious first-involvement from their new import, and as a consequence they’d already gotten one of Auckland’s key players (Nando Pijnaker) on a yelllow card. Hideki Ishige then whipped a very decent effort on target from the dead ball, forcing Alex Paulsen into an early save. Things were looking pretty good for the Nix at that stage. They sure didn’t stay that way though.
There were 20 mins on the clock when Max Mata had a goal disallowed after a shove in the back of Tim Payne. Fair call, blatant foul. But note that the non-goal came after a long throw that the Phoenix failed to adequately clear. From there onwards, AFC tallied up a large collection of aerial crosses into the area, many from set piece situations, and a Wellington Phoenix defence which is usually very good at repelling such things was giving the impression of a possum in the headlights. That was how they conceded the opener. 31st minute. Alby Kelly-Heald slapped at the initial Francis De Vries inswinging corner and the ball fell for an Auckland FC player three times in a row as the Nix scrambled to keep blocking shots. With the third attempt, Neyder Moreno thumped the ball through the crowd and into the net.
Four minutes later, Max Mata’s aerial presence kept another attack alive as he challenged for a header (FDV cross, naturally) against both Isaac Hughes and Lukas Kelly-Heald. The ball dropped into the space behind them where Moreno lashed in from the penalty spot. Again, nobody was there in yellow for the second ball. Then Auckland scored a third in the 40th minute when Logan Rogerson narrowly dodged the offside flag to nod in at the back post from Felipe Gallegos’ open play delivery. Three goals in the space of ten minutes. All of them began with lifted crosses into the penalty area. We could go on about the slack marking/positioning but the real problem was that the Phoenix were rattled. They picked a very young defence. they were on the ropes away from home against a rival... and their heads were on Mars.
As for Auckland FC, this was perfection. They have this amazing habit of grinding teams out and then hitting them late in halves. This time it was a little earlier, doing the damage between 30-40’, but it was the same concept. They poked and prodded until they found a weakness and then they ruthlessly exploited it. From there they only had to manage the game, something they’ve been equally excellent at doing this season.
The Wellington Phoenix made a half-time triple substitution. It had to be done. Granted, the state of the Wellington Phoenix means that the players they subbed on were Luke Brooke-Smith (16yo) and Nathan Walker (19yo)... alongside club captain Alex Rufer (28yo). No doubt there was also a rark up from Chiefy in the sheds. And it worked because four minutes into the second stanza the Nix had got a goal back through the tenacity of Luke Brooke-Smith.
Paulsen later made a superb save rushing back to tip a Geraldes attempt over the top. The Phoenix did some bright stuff in there. Nathan Walker and Tim Payne were linking nicely. Geraldes was making things happen. Brooke-Smith was a menace. Then LBS passed the ball across his own defence and straight to Neyder Moreno who thumped it into the bottom corner from 20 metres out and the good work was undone.
So much for the comeback attempt. In the 80th minute, it was Tim Payne’s turn to lose the ball, with Louis Verstraete’s tackle rebounding to Logan Rogerson who slammed in a fantastic strike from range. Reminiscent of his goal for the All Whites against Malaysia – something that then felt uncharacteristic from him but that feeling is quickly disappearing. Also, just for good luck old mate Jesse Randall swept in a smart finish near the end. Randall had already tried two similar chances which he put wide. Third time was the charm. 6-1 to Auckland FC. Derby wins don’t come much more comprehensive than that.
Auckland FC Are The Real Deal
What else is there to say about these guys? They have the best defence in the competition by miles. They’ve now got two attacking imports with at least five goals each (Neyder Moreno is on 8, Guillermo May is on 5) while Louis Verstraete, Felipe Gallegos, and especially Hiroki Sakai (who just re-signed for next season) are also giving them excellent value. Alex Paulsen remains the best goalie in the ALM. There are several other kiwi players who are way exceeding expectations, one of those being Logan Rogerson who now has five goals and an assist in 1121 minutes – he had some productive years in Finland but this is next level. Steve Corica continues to nail the tactical stuff. They have a bench that can (and does) impact games. They’re focussed, confident, and resilient. They’re eight points clear at the top of the ladder with the chance to make it more when they host second-placed Adelaide United next week. This team is fighting for a championship, there’s no doubt left about it.
This was Auckland FC’s fourth consecutive win, making this the second time they’ve mustered such as streak (they won six in a row to begin things, as you surely remember). But unlike the previous streak, they’re scoring a lot of goals these days – 16 in their past six matches. The introduction of Max Mata to the starting eleven has freed up Guillermo May to go marauding whilst giving them an aerial target in the box for all of those crosses they love. Settling on Moreno and Rogerson as the wide players has also helped, with those two doing most of the damage in Derby Three. They’re adding strings to their bow. The whole league oughta be scared.
Here are some stats from before the match, comparing the two clubs and where they rank across the whole A-League (out of 13 teams). Originally used in our Substack newsletter, repurposed here...
| AFC | WEL | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals Per Game | 1.6 (6) | 1.0 (12) |
| Goals Conceded Per Game | 0.8 (1) | 1.2 (3) |
| Shots On Target Per Game | 4.6 (8) | 2.7 (13) |
| Clean Sheets | 9 (1) | 5 (4) |
| Clearances Per Game | 30.7 (1) | 28.2 (2) |
| Interceptions Per Game | 10.2 (1) | 10.0 (2) |
| Possession Won In Opp Half Per Game | 7.1 (2) | 3.1 (12) |
| Average Possession | 47.2% (12) | 47.5% (11) |
| Successful Crosses Per Game | 4.9 (3) | 2.4 (13) |
| Fouls Per Game | 12.2 (1) | 8.2 (12) |
Safe to say that the Nix’s defence has taken a hit since then. Auckland FC, on the other hand, just scored six goals from 2.34 xG - two long-rangers and a couple of shots through crowds will do that for ya. They conceded one so that raises their season average. Eight shots on target (from 24 shots overall) gives them a boost. No clean sheet...but they still made 31 clearances and 10 interceptions to hit the mark bang on. Not sure about possession won in the opposition half but it suffices to say that two of their goals came directly from such situations. 54% of possession. Seven accurate crosses. 17 fouls committed. There was nothing different about them in this match. They served it up the usual dish... only with extra spices for their rivals.
Youth vs Experience
Frustrating though it may have been for the Phoenix to witness, it wasn’t all that surprising what happened. To put it as simply as possible: Auckland FC are built to win right now whereas the Wellington Phoenix are in a rebuilding phase. The ages of the respective elevens show that pretty clearly...
Auckland FC’s starters by age:
22, 34, 34, 25, 30, 26, 33, 26, 28, 24, 26 (avg: 28.0)
Wellington Phoenix starters by age:
19, 31, 20, 33, 19, 21, 20, 22, 30, 29, 35 (avg: 25.4)
The youngest player on the park for AFC at kickoff was Alex Paulsen who is still older than five separate Nix starters and only a couple of months younger than Corban Piper. Ironically, he was one of the reasons why the Nix were able to avoid a similar rebuild last season, as the likes of he, Ben Old, Finn Surman, and a resurgent Kosta Barbarouses (at the other end of the experience scale) helped them pick up the slack from the players they’d lost after Ufuk Talay’s last season. But then they lost a similar chunk of the squad between that term and this term and unfortunately they hadn’t had time to restock the cupboard.
The mahi of Paulsen, Old, and Surman in 2023-24 didn’t happen out of the blue. Those guys had been building towards those performances for 2-3 seasons beforehand. Now the players who’ve been tasked with replacing them are only in their first or second A-League seasons. They’re not as far advanced. Those three were primed to step into the starting team when they were needed to – it could even be argued it was overdue on all three counts – but their immediate success and prompt transfers have left the Nix without enough time to develop their replacements.
Someone like Isaac Hughes has been mostly been really good... but with that goodness has come a few too many individual mistakes that a more experienced player wouldn’t make. It’s the anomalies that are spoiling things. Alby Kelly-Heald suffered his first deflating game in that derby defeat, which might be the prompt for Josh Oluwayemi to regain his spot next up. Fellas like Matt Sheridan, Lukas Kelly-Heald, Nathan Walker, Fin Roa Conchie, and Luke Supyk have also been thrust into roles that exceed what anyone would have expected (except maybe for Roa Conchie, who was injured for an extended spell of the campaign).
And it’s not purely about individuals. The Phoenix are always going to hold space for a few exaggerated youngster roles... the issue is that they’ve had this many all at once. It affects their ninety-minute consistency, it affects their bench depth, it affects their game-management, it affects their possession play. It’s all great learning for those lads but you simply cannot expect the team to be as functional as they were last season with this many players who, at this point in time, are not as good as they guys they’re replacing.
Now, could they have done things differently to counteract this? The Welly Nix are a development club so they’re always going to be seeking those incoming transfer fees and they’re always going to try and promote from within. But it’s not unfair to say that the David Ball situation was mishandled. Not for the common reason that you see in the comments sections about him not being given a chance. Ball had all of last season as his chance and he didn’t score a single goal. Sure, he’s a facilitator... but the team is worse now. He was only going to be worse in a worse team. Any idea to the contrary is getting into extreme “absence makes the heart grow fonder” territory.
Nah, the problem is that for so long they wasted an import spot on a player they didn’t want. At least now that’s all been rectified with Chico Geraldes arriving. In fairness, injuries to Marco Rojas, Stefan Colakovski, Alex Rufer, and sporadic absences from a few others have also ravaged the squad from week to week. It’s often been their experienced guys who’ve been missing too.
Compare that to the experience of Auckland FC and the contrast is glaring. AFC mostly signed guys in their mid-20s and older, building from scratch without an academy system to work with yet (though the expansion is underway). They signed motivated kiwis from the domestic scene or overseas. They signed five top-notch imports, each of which has had a huge impact on their style and success. They picked up a handful of Aussie A-League veterans. Clearly they’re dealing with a very different financial reality to the Phoenix but you can’t argue with what they’ve done with it.
Then on top of that... there have hardly been any injuries for the Black Knights. Dan Hall’s still got a few more weeks out. Cam Howieson missed some time. Beyond that there hasn’t been a single instance of another player missing more than two games in a row for injury reasons. The Nix have had 22 full-contracted players this season and seven of them have had at least one injury of 3+ games absence. Those eight players don’t include Mo Al-Taay, David Ball, or Oskar van Hattum who were all been released midterm. Every game they’re having to find new combinations.
Positives For The Welly Nix
Okay then, with those reasonings out of the way (reasons, not excuses, mind you), it’s only right to give Wellington Phoenix fans something to nurse their weary souls. The reactions to that derby defeat seem to suggest a lot of pain and frustration. Some of which is justifiable in this moment, some of which is overreaction based on high emotions. Don’t sack Giancarlo Italiano. Don’t write off the current academy grads. Don’t give up on the season. The darkest clouds still have silver linings and there were positives to take from that game heading into the last nine fixtures of the season.
1) Luke Brooke-Smith
It wasn’t just the goal. LBS came on at half-time, part of a triple substitution, and brought some serious impact to the Nix. The effort was there, the aggression was there. He holds his own phsyically despite his young age... and he’s an elusive dribbler in a team that struggles for creativity. But it was also the goal. Right place, right time – and with that he becomes the club’s youngest-ever goalscorer on top of already holding the youngest-ever player title. In fact, he’s now the fifth youngest goalscorer in A-League history at 16 years and 261 days. Only Quinn MacNicol, Mohamed Toure, Nestory Irankunda (x3), and Archie Goodwin can beat him. Of course, LBS’s inexperience was then on full display soon afterwards as he turned a good bit of play under pressure into a terrible one by giving the ball away for Moreno’s third. But the good stuff outweighs that one lapse.
2) The Start To The Second Half
For 15-20 minutes after half-time, the Phoenix actually looked quite good. They scored straight after the break and then built on that, putting AFC under pressure and sparking dreams of an unlikely comeback. It all fell apart from a silly mistake at the back from Brooke-Smith but that spell should frame how they attack for the rest of this season. Already mentioned LBS but Nathan Walker looked good too. There were two passes that he made both picking out Tim Payne in motion, threading them between defenders with precision, which there’s no way he could have hit at the start of the season. They always look better when Alex Rufer is on the pitch so that helped too. Rufer secures possession, he sparks counter-attacks, he doesn’t give the ball away cheaply, and he drives standards with his leadership. Later on they were able to chuck Marco Rojas into the mix as well, returning after missing the past nine games. Thanks to this appearance, Rojas has finally exceeded Oskar Van Hattum’s minutes tally for this season. Slightly more Luke Supyk, another prodigious dribbler, wouldn’t go astray either. Lean into the guys with game-breaking ability.
3) The Poet Arrives
Not only is Chico Geraldes a published poet... he’s also a decent footballer. This guy is a step above the usual pedigree of A-League imports and even on debut, after limited training time, he showed that to be the case with some delightfully skilful touches. Building combinations in such a short amount of time will be tough, and he definitely looks like someone who needs to combine with the guys around him, but he seems to be up for the challenge. So often lately it’s been glaring how much the Nix lack someone to link midfield to attack. Now they’ve finally found that bloke and just in the nick of time.
4) Shots
The Nix had 11 total shots and five of them were on target. Shot counts are a very bland stat that don’t tell much of the story but in the previous two derbies combined they had 13 shots with four on target so there’s some progress there. Interestingly, they’ve only reached double figure shot attempts in 6/17 matches this term and they’ve only won one of those six games. Four of their five wins have come with single-digit shot attempts. They don’t need lots of chances, they only need a few good ones. They haven’t been getting those either of late... but you get the point. Come to think of it, this isn’t really a positive at all. It’s just a coping mechanism. Oh well.
5) Forget About It
Mercifully, the Wellington Phoenix won’t have to play Auckland FC again until next season. The only exception will be if they meet in the playoffs and for that to happen... the Phoenix would need to make the playoffs. The Yellow Fever are in for a good couple months if that’s to be the case. It still could be. With Geraldes and Rojas only just getting properly available their attack will be stronger from this point onwards than it has been at any stage yet (if Rojas gets injured again, well, then maybe we reassess). This idea is kinda tongue-in-cheek but there is a serious angle to it: the Nix cannot afford to dwell on what just happened. Flush the dunny and move on. Otherwise if it lingers into subsequent performances then the season is practically goneskees.
Onside Or Offside?
The correct answer to that question is: they lost 6-1 so it doesn’t make a difference. S’pose if it had only been 2-0 then Luke Brooke-Smith’s goal would have been to make it 2-1 and that’s a very different complexion... but it ain’t like anyone’s arguing that the better team didn’t win.
Having said that, it was a surprise that Rogerson was drawn onside from the replays that we saw. Those narrow ones always feel so flippant though. It’s never acknowledged but there is a margin for error with these judgements brought about by the frame rates of the footage, the limits of the technology, and the fact that humans are still operating things (here’s an educational chat on all that). A sport like cricket incorporates this margin for error into its equation with the umpire’s call. Football doesn’t have anything like that. But, ultimately, almost all the complaints against video technology are about how it slows the game down and takes away goals. So if this one was going to be in that marginal zone then we should all be happy that the attacking team got the benefit.
The bigger controversy might be the one put forth by Tommy Smith post-match about whether it was Neyder Moreno or Logan Rogerson who scored the hat-trick. Smithy was right in that Moreno’s second goal did clip Rogerson on the way through. There is one reverse angle where it appears the initial shot was headed wide without that touch, although so far Moreno’s still getting credit in the official channels. Phoenix fans might have another argument there because it could be claimed that the ball struck Rogerson on the arm. Natural position... but there’s less leniency when it comes to goals and handballs. Who’s to say? History is written by the victors, after all.
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