Reactions From The A-League’s Sixth NZ Derby
The results may not have been very balanced but tell ya what there’s never been a boring NZ Derby. All six of these games have been bursting with fascination and intrigue and filled with crazy moments. Chapter Six is going to have some extensive ramifications after it cost the Wellington Phoenix their coach. There’s still a chance of a finals run for the Nix, though there’s now the more pertinent question of how the club addresses its longer-term priorities. This could also be a turning point in Auckland FC’s season as they finally put an opponent to the sword after so many instances of failing to capitalise on promising situations. The only other game in which they’ve scored more than twice this season was... the previous time they played the Phoenix (3-1 at Mt Smart in December). They were wobbling before this. Now they’ve landed a wave they might be able to ride all the way into shore.
What’s wild is that these two teams kicked off at Matt Henry Stadium (or whatever they’re calling it these days), they did so with identical recent form. Both had experienced one win, two draws, and two defeats in their most recent five matches. Different order of results but same points tally. The Phoenix had plenty of reasons to feel still wary since their struggles had been going on a lot longer, plus they were without the injured Sarpreet Singh and Tim Payne – their two All Whites starters. But never had they come up against a more vulnerable Auckland FC side. The Black (and Blue) Knights were missing more than a few soldiers of their own: Sam Cosgrove was suspended, Nando Pijnaker and Louis Verstraete out injured. On paper, this was as good a chance as the Nix have ever had to start evening up the derby ledger. But that’s not what happened. Not even close.
Ka Kite To The Chief
A 5-0 defeat at home against your biggest rivals... many a coach has been sacked for less. Would the Wellington Phoenix have taken such measures if it were left up to the club brass to make that decision? Maybe, maybe not. It’s possible they nudged Giancarlo Italiano towards the edge. It’s also possible that they were still going to give him the rest of the season to figure it out. The David Dome/Shaun Gill era has never been known for its ruthlessness. But it’s a moot point because the Chief sat down at his press conference and announced to all in attendance that he’d just tendered his resignation.
Italiano has often suggested that he’d step aside if he no longer felt he was the best bloke for the job and he remains a man of his word. Above all else, this is a man who cared deeply about the club he worked for and put everything he had into the role (maybe even too much). He was ambitious and meticulous in the football he tried to extract from his team. He was captivating and insightful in his press conferences. Boosted up the academy youngsters like nobody before him. Took the team to their best-ever finish in his first year... but never got the same tune out of them in the following two seasons after Alex Paulsen, Finn Surman, and Ben Old all left at once.
He leaves a fascinating legacy that’ll require more than 24 hours to digest... but as to his decision to leave? Well, he said himself that if a team he supported lost 5-0 at home in a derby then he’d expect the coach to quit. The baffling thing is that this Nix team always felt like they were one vindicating result away from everything clicking. The ingredients were always there for a strong team and it’s not like there weren’t flashes of the high-possession, zig-zag passing structures they were aiming for. But that confidence boosting win never arrived and the problems that might have evaporated with a bit of positive momentum instead began to fester. There’s been absolutely no consistency - they haven’t won consecutive games all season. And lately they’d become their own worst enemies with different players, many of them senior players, taking it in turns to make awful mistakes leading to goals. It was Bill Tuiloma then it was Manjrekar James then it was Alby Kelly-Heald and then, most fatefully, it was Josh Oluwayemi.
Chiefy didn’t help himself by asking so much of these players tactically. Added to that, he’s got a tendency to overcomplicate the game-plan, tinkering with players in different positions. Midseason additions caused further alterations meaning they still feel like a work in progress two-thirds of the way into the campaign. Usually when things aren’t working it’s way safer to simplify the instructions. The Chief, admirably but perhaps misguidedly, preferred to double down. There’s an alternate world in which they took advantage of the two red cards in the first derby and won, giving them a lift that could have spurred into something great. But that’s where we reach The Impasse.
For whatever reason, over the past two seasons (aligning exactly with the arrival of Auckland FC) the Wellington Phoenix have developed a massive mental block. Not only in the derbies but spilling out into everything else too. Every time they seemed to be up to something, they’d play AFC and get mugged and would need weeks recover their equilibrium (they’ve lost the fixture immediately after the derby on the last four occasions). You saw it as blatantly as ever on Saturday where a competitive first twenty minutes went out the window as soon as they conceded an all-timer freaky own goal. The Nix dropped their heads and conceded three more times to be 4-0 down at half-time, pretty much game over. Leadership found wanting. Personality left at the gates. Possums caught in the headlights.
Every one of these derbies has involved tipping point moments and they’ve all gone in Auckland’s favour. Six times in a row over multiple seasons. It’s long since stopped being a coincidence...
Derby 1: 0-0 after 87 mins when Oluwayemi made a blunder and AFC won 2-0
Derby 2: 0-0 after 30 mins when Isaac Hughes headed into his own net, AFC won 2-1
Derby 3: 0-0 after 30 mins then three goals in ten mins sparked a 6-1 AFC victory
Derby 4: Conceded in opening minute, 2-1 down at HT, unable to equalise playing 30 mins against ten men and then the last ten against nine men as AFC held on for the 2-1 win
Derby 5: Conceded after seven mins, equalised after 55 mins but then gave away two penalties on the way to a 3-1 defeat
Derby 6: 0-0 after 23 mins, comical Oluwayemi goal happened, soon they were 4-0 down at HT and it ended 5-0 to AFC
The bottom line is this team has been spooked and, try as he might, Italiano just couldn’t get rid of those ghosts. Bev Priestman has been able to do it for the women’s team, coming in as an Olympic champion coach with the weight of her words enough to convince her players that, yeah, actually they are good enough to compete for an A-League title. Chiefy has not been able to do that and in derbies least of all, as their pitiful responses to adversity keep showing. It’s gotten to the point where they need to be shaken out of their doubtfulness and only a coaching change was going to be drastic enough to achieve that. Italiano, to his credit, recognised this.
Bit of a sidebar here but there’s also something to be said here about the wider coaching staffs of these two teams. Giancarlo Italiano was a first-time head coach who’d worked his way up from an analyst role to an assistant to the main man. The fellas beside him on the bench this season were Kelly Guimarães, a 50yo Brazilian who played in several different countries though this was his first coaching gig outside his homeland. Aussie-based Papua New Guinea international Reggie Davani was initially going to be the second mate on this ship but he resigned in October with Luke Tongue promoted into that role instead. Tongue is a former WeeNix player, hailing from Christchurch, who only turned 27yo in January and has been getting good raps for his work in the youth side but is obviously very young in his coaching career. And Dylan Cope was also there as goalkeeping coach, a South African who’d been based in Perth (working in both ALM and ALW roles with the Glory) since 2017 when he moved there for university. Bit more experience for Cope than for Tongue but he’s not much older. All were freshly hired/promoted so it was a completely new staff working with Italiano this season.
Compare that to the experience and pedigree on the AFC bench where the shots are called by head coach Steve Corica (A-League winner as player and coach, Aussie international), assistant Danny Hay (All Whites player and coach), and goalkeeping coach Jonathan Gould (Scottish international and former GK coach at Stoke, Middlesbrough, West Brom, Wellington Phoenix, and of course with Hawke’s Bay United/Napier City Rovers). Luke Casserly’s away with the OPL side at the moment but he’s a first-team assistant too, having played internationally and coached in several different roles back in Oz. Terry McFlynn (Northern Irish youth international with extensive A-League playing and backroom staff experience) deserves a big shout for what he’s done as director of football too. Interestingly, Hay (Walsall), Casserly (Marconi Stallions), and McFlynn (Sydney FC) were all teammates of Steve Corica’s during their playing days.
AFC Revitalised
Whereas the Welly Nix seem to wilt like daisies in the desert whenever Auckland FC get in their way, the Aucklanders are the complete opposite. They feed like vampires upon Wellingtonian negativity. Steve Corica went with the unusual approach of a starting back three for this game, matching the Nix formation, probably with the intent of keeping it tight during the early stages of a very emotionally loaded game knowing that he was without a few of his most critical tactical options. For those first twenty-odd minutes that approach was looking kinda dodgy. The back three often has this season having lost much of its effectiveness without Field Marshall Tommy Smith to enforce it (even though Jake Girdwood-Reich is arguably a better player in the present day, Smithy’s experience and leadership was what mattered there). Whether Corica was playing for an inevitable Phoenix mistake or whether it was just a happy convenience, Oluwayemi’s own goal changed everything and those scrappy initial stages became the platform for another huge Auckland FC derby victory.
That goal came out of nothing but the other four did not. They were all instances of ruthless attacking football, taking an unexpected bit of luck and gleefully capitalising upon it. Jesse Randall angling inwards to shoot. Felipe Gallegos making an overlapping run out wide from midfield. Randall again, this time running in behind onto a spectacular through ball from Guillermo May. Then Randall relaying the favour to Lachlan Brook who drove into the box to shoot without hesitation. This is how you punish a team that’s playing with self-doubt. Quick, direct actions. Brook’s goal was beautiful because you could see how Isaac Hughes was playing him to cut inside onto his left and instead he shot with his off-foot and placed it perfectly inside the far post. That was the most excusable goal from a Wellington perspective. The first one needs no qualifications and the middle three all involved slow close-outs or a lagging defender leaving a runner onside. Again, individual errors curtailing the ChiefNix. But it takes a great team to expose those fallibilities as brutally as AFC did here.
To repeat: no Louis Verstraete, no Nando Pijnaker, no Sam Cosgrove. Lachlan Brook was only on the bench after a couple of subpar outings. Marlee Francois had started the past two games but was also out hurt. And none of it mattered as they delivered a result that gives their entire season a complete karmic adjustment. They went in hoping for three points, they emerged with three points and solutions to pretty much every other problem they’d been having.
Michael Woud was only three games removed from being dropped and kept a flawless clean sheet (his biggest involvement was getting stuck on the wrong end of an Isaac Hughes shoulder charge). Cam Howieson had only started two other games all season but slotted in smoothly. Guillermo May was playing like a shadow of his former self until his goal and assist here. Similar story for Gallegos. Brook scored off the bench (just the second goal by an AFC substitute this season – following May’s in the December Derby). Randall buried a couple lovely finishes after missing a few chances recently. They didn’t concede any late goals. The finished the first half with dominance. Point at a recent vulnerability in this AFC side and chances are it got fixed against the Wellington Phoenix. These derbies are like healing waters for Steve Corica’s team.
Quick word also for Logan Rogerson who still hasn’t scored this season but he played a solid role in a couple of these goals. He should have been playing a lot more than he has been... his only two 90min outings this season have been the last two Nix games (after he was sent off in the first meeting). But even when he’s not scoring he does so much good work defensively. He’s made seven starts this term and in those seven matches, AFC have won five, drawn one, and lost one. Also huge pakipaki for Dan Hall who was unreal in keeping Ifeanyi Eze contained like few other centre-backs have managed in the A-League... and doing so without constantly fouling him like everyone else does.
(This is a conversation for another week but this was the first game in which Sam Cosgrove played no part... and they scored five times. Much of that was down to the opponents but seeing a resurgent Guillermo May and with Randall and Brook continuing their scoring form, having great fun running into space without Cosgrove clogging things ahead of them, suggests it could be worth tracking whether AFC are potentially better without the big Englishman up top).
Derby King Jesse Randall
Jesse Randall loves playing footy in Wellington (he’s from there so it makes sense). First derby of the season, he set up both goals in a 2-1 win (should have been a goal and an assist but Cosgrove poached the other goal for himself... though Randall got his own back with that lying-down, eyes-closed diverted effort a few weeks later). This time he delivered two goals and an assist. Don’t forget he also scored the sixth goal in the 6-1 win in Auckland last year – he didn’t play the first two derbies so that gives him four appearances in this fixture with three goals and three assists.
These derby performances have been the high points of a breakthrough season for Randall, one which has already earned him a transfer to Dundee United in Scotland next season. He finished that game as the equal top-scorer in the competition with his eight goals. Add in his four assists and he’s tied with Juan Mata (Melbourne Victory) for the most goal contributions. Yes, he’s also missed the most big chances... but that comes with the territory. Randall is a rare player in the A-League who is capable of creating his own shooting opportunities if you can get him the ball in motion. When you’ve got a guy like that, it doesn’t matter how many he misses because you can keep going to that well all day long until he buries one. And Randall’s buried plenty. His finishing has improved heaps this season with the benefit of his blossoming confidence, making him AFC’s most consistently threatening attacking option.
And, before you ask, yes it’s probably going to earn him a ticket to the World Cup. Whereas the other breakthrough kiwi talent in the ALM, Lachie Bayliss of Newcastle Jets, faces an uphill battle trying to crack into a very settled and very talented midfield group, Randall has the benefit of versatility being able to cover either wing and also striker. Plus he possesses the kind of straight-line speed that the All Whites squad otherwise lacks. Ben Old is very quick, albeit not an orthodox winger. Logan Rogerson probably isn’t making the cut. Therefore Randall offers something different. Bayliss does not (and also his burst of production has only really happened in the last month or two whereas Randall’s been doing this all season)... though injuries should at least give him a deserved audition in the March window.
The Goalkeeping Situation in Wellington
Josh Oluwayemi had the game of his life in the previous derby, saving two penalties and making several other impressive contributions (albeit in a 3-1 loss). He’s also an import player, the most senior of the three keepers used by the Nix this season, so while he was always going to be a bit rusty having missed the previous eight games with injury... you could see the logic in Chiefy recalling him. The only derby game that Alby Kelly-Heald had played was a 6-1 defeat. At 20 years old, having made a blunder last week that cost his team a goal, it made sense to shield AKH from that pressurised environment... and 18yo Eamonn McCarron is in the same situation only multiplied. The idea was sound. But the outcome couldn’t have been any more disastrous...
The thing that’s so baffling about this goal (aside from all of it) is that a few minutes earlier he’d faced a similar situation and had simply stepped back and let it bounce before grabbing it on the next drop. There were some gasps from the crowd but there shouldn’t have been – it was good safe goalkeeping. There was probably some wind on this one, possible some glare from the sun too... but that’s all the more reason not to be so strange about it. JGR kicked that sucker from barely outside his own box. At the height it was dropping from, with no AFC forward anywhere near him (and Olu having the benefit of being able to use his damn hands), he’d have easily gathered it on the second bounce. Instead he skimmed it off his noggin and into the net for an own goal of calamitous proportions.
Oluwayemi made a mess of the second goal too. Don’t fall for any Goalie Union stuff about being unsighted, that shot from Jesse Randall had a clear path from boot to keeper and JO flunked it. He may have been anticipating a block/deflection but that’s no excuse. The reverse angle makes it clear there was nobody obstructing his view. There might have been had his defenders had been quicker at closing Randall down but alas ‘twas not the case.
Italiano didn’t even have a choice about subbing Oluwayemi at half-time. It had to be done. You can feel bad for the man wearing the gloves but it would have been more unfair for him and his teammates to leave him out there (particularly with away fans behind the Nix goal in the second half). And now we have to wonder whether, with Oluwayemi coming off contract after this season, with the coach having resigned, and given the high-profile nature of these mistakes and the need for the club to draw a line in the sand between this game and everything that comes afterwards... have we seen the last of him in a Phoenix jersey?
Caretaker managers often try to salvage their situations by leaning on the youth grads and there are two good options already at the club who fit that bill and each have already played several games during Olu’s injury absence. This chart was a little more cohesive when it first appeared in TNC’s Substack last Monday, the derby having sprayed a few stats, but you can still see the funky distinctions between the trio...
Oluwayemi is the best shot-stopper. The sweeps aren’t his natural game, as he just proved yet again, but he has done a really commendable job of trying to adapt to what the team required. Ruined his xGOT Differential (Expected Goals per Shot on Target versus Actual Goals Conceded) with this performance but the saves still hold up in comparison. Kelly-Heald has conceded a lot, granted while playing the least making his numbers the most volatile, but he makes a massive difference to the team’s ability to build up from the back. His passing game is by far the best of the three which suits the style they were trying to play, especially since Bill Tuiloma arrived with his top notch early-phase passing. And youngblood McCarron settled somewhere in between the two. Only thing was he kicked the ball long way more than the others, with almost half his completed passes travelling 20+ metres, and the xGOT stuff suggests that while he was making more saves than AKH, he was also conceding more than he should have (probably meaning that the saves he was making were easier on average). Dunno if that makes it any easier for the next coach to make a choice but at least the three candidates all offer something unique.
Wellington Phoenix Injury Curse
The Wellington Phoenix have the best facilities in the competition (alongside Melbourne City). Every new signing talks about it, the club loves to mention it, the PFA’s latest ALW Report reinforced this idea with the player survey ranking the Nix highest in that area. The NZ Campus of Innovation & Sport connection gives them access to genuinely state of the art stuff. And yet... so many injuries.
The women suffered three ACL tears within the first couple months of the season with another scholarship player still recovering from last year’s one. The blokes had Stefan Colakovski do the same last season. Hideki Ishigi did so this season. Josh Oluwayemi has had extended injury breaks in both years he’s been at the club. Alby Kelly-Heald’s shoulder. Marco Rojas and Chico Geraldes last year. This year there’s been Nicola Mileusnic, Nathan Walker, Paolo Retre, Dan Edwards, and Tim Payne all missing extended time.
Then, on the eve of the Derby, news came through that Sarpreet Singh’s going to miss 6-8 weeks with the injury suffered on his (second) debut the week prior, with Tim Payne also out injured again. At the same time, Lara Wall from the ALW squad is out for 6-8 weeks with her own issue. Best facilities in the league and yet everyone’s always injured... how is that supposed to work? Sure we’re talking about a bunch of different diagnoses suffered in a variety of manners but this just doesn’t seem to happen at other clubs.
The Nix made a point of telling us that “the Phoenix women’s ACL injury prevention practices are comprehensive and aligned with industry standards” after the Middag/Whinham double blow... therefore implying that they’ve at least pondered the alternative. It’s a proven fact that there are more injuries in football these days and while that’s often put down to workload (more games, higher intensity – especially on the female side where this level of professionalism is relatively new), research seems to suggest that these things are often more about routine than fatigue. A player is less likely to get injured after playing with the same intensity for 30+ games in a year than they are during those spells where the routine suddenly changes. Going from preseason to proper season is one of those changes - that might help explain why the Phoenix’s ACL issues are usually early season injuries. Another example is switching positions, particularly if there’s more sprinting involved. Another is when the manager gets replaced, leading to a new boss with new instructions. International breaks, with all that travel affecting recovery patterns, are another known spike. There’s no silver bullet solution to this very nuanced problem but much to ponder nonetheless.
AFC Blood The Youngsters
With ten minutes to go, a Wellington tradition was upheld when a bunch of joyous kiwi fans stripped down to the waist with their team in the lead. Only thing was it was the Auckland fans not the Wellington fans. That wasn’t the only Wellingtonian expectation that AFC jacked in that game either... because as the clock ticked down with the result long gone it was Auckland FC who were chucking on young debutants. Usually AFC are the team of successful veterans and WPX are the ones who send their youth team graduates out there into the colosseum. Not this time.
The aforementioned injuries were what cleared the path for this to happen but regardless that was an AFC bench that included James Mitchell and Bailey Ferguson both getting debuts, while Matt D’Hotman-de Villiers was an unused substitute. Jonty Bidois also made his fifth substitute appearance of the term though he’s on a scholarship deal so it’s a bit different. We have seen players from below their main list of contracts feature before. Codey Phoenix snuck onto the bench once last year. Ryan Mackay and Luka Vicelich did the same earlier this season (Vicelich has since signed on pro terms). But to have three more such dudes all in the same matchday squad, two of them making debuts, is unprecedented.
James Mitchell and Matt D’Hotman were big players for the AFC Reserves during the last National League. Mitchell as a classy midfielder, D’Hotman as a bursting fullback. Little bit curious that they were called up whereas scholarship guys with previous ALM experience like Finn McKenlay or Adama Coulibaly were not but it’s all a bit complicated at the moment beneath the A-League with the OFC Pro League also going on. The initial Pro League squad was roughly 75% players from outside the club. As the season has gone along there have been a few more dudes from the Ressies getting a chance – along with Liam Gillion and Luka Vicelich who have senior deals but are playing OPL to keep up their minutes – but it’s a weird one with so many players there who are ineligible for A-League call-ups.
Hence why Bailey Ferguson’s promotion is so interesting because he’s never played Reserves, he was signed straight to the OPL squad... though at 18 years old (born and raised in Australia but with a kiwi father making him eligible for both internationally) he probably gets away with that for being a youth player. The OPL only just started a few months ago so we don’t really have any precedents here, just gotta learn as we go along. Point being that we don’t tend to see the youngsters in the A-League very often but don’t let that fool you into thinking they’re not every bit as deep and talented as the Wellington Phoenix are below the A-League. And you don’t need to ask about the A-League comparison, six in a row tells you all you need to know about that.
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