Here’s to Southampton’s Perpetual Rebuilding Project
At a time when four Champions League spots are split between roughly six or seven Premier League clubs that all rate themselves to pinch one, it seems like every new season sees a mad scramble through the transfer market for that one decisive player (or five) that’ll make all the difference. Only Arsenal ever sit on their hands. But Manchester teams flashing blank cheques at anyone who’ll answer their phone calls is kinda boring. Nope, the most interesting team out there with a chequebook is probably Southampton.
Bear with me on this one. In the last three Premier League seasons, Southampton have finished eighth, seventh and sixth – increasing their placing by a spot each time. The year before that they finished fourteenth in their first go back in the top flight since 2004-05, an effort that’s much better with the context that they took only four points from their first ten games and, despite a decent mid-season run, were still flirting with relegation when Mauricio Pochettino replaced Nigel Atkins as manager in January 2013.
Pochettino then turned them into something impressive. Building on their improved form in the back half of the previous campaign, they made a few shrewd signings and their Argentinian boss really began to implement his ideas. It’s the same stuff he’s since become known for at Spurs – high pressing and defensive stability, with superior fitness always a backbone. An early loss to Norwich saw them drop to eleventh in after three games and that was the last time they found themselves out of the top half all season.
Which then saw Pochettino headhunted by Spurs, with Southampton replacing him with Ronald Koeman. Two more quality seasons followed and now, going into the 2016-17 season, Koeman has had his contract trumped by Everton and Claude Puel has been inked to replace him in the manager’s seat.
See, Southampton are pretty much the gatekeepers of the Premier League elite. The teams that finish above them each season are the legit ones and the teams below not so much. That’s a superb level of consistency for a team that are only entering their fifth year in the top flight and even more so given that every single year they have to replace crucial players in that squad.
That’s what happens when you overachieve outside the PL’s elite. They have all the money, so when you do well, they buy your players. You do well again and they buy some more of them. It’s taken Leicester City actually winning the thing to keep hold of most of their lads and even then that’s still at the expense of N’Golo Kante sacrificing Champions League football to play for Chelsea and Riyad Mahrez a strong possibility to follow him out the door as well – not to mention the genius scout behind signing both of them, Steve Cook, being headhunted by Everton. Even just a couple of key losses like that and sustaining their place at the top seems near impossible. Hell, keep all of those dudes and it still would’ve been against all odds. But don’t cry for Leicester City, they’ve got their Premier League title. Instead maybe shed a tear for Southampton who have faced an exodus like that now three years in a row. Here’s a full starting XI of players they’ve sold or released over that time:
Saints fans would have been forgiven for being a little extra optimistic at the end of the 2015-16 season, what with yet another incrementally better finish – their best ever in the Premier League and best in the top division since 1984-85. Four straight wins to finish the campaign and only one loss in their last ten and the signs were that for the first time in ages they’d be able to keep a consistent squad into the next term. That didn’t happen.
Instead Ronald Koeman slightly surprisingly took up Everton’s offer and the Saints were again caught in transition. It was a little off from the Dutchman to leave a team he’d had a lot of success with in two years, with a developing squad that carried plenty of youth and one that is very arguably better than what Everton has to offer. Everton has three supreme talents in Romelu Lukaku, Ross Barkley and John Stones but each of the three of them is under considerable transfer speculation and following an eleventh placed finish last time they don’t have European football this time either. Except that Everton has just undergone a significant change in ownership and there is plenty of cash to spend, especially if any transfer fees are reinvested. Koeman will have taken a large pay-rise and you can’t fault him for that in a career as fragile as football management.
Then you add in that with only a year on his contract, Victor Wanyama pretty much had to be sold and Spurs with his old boss Pochettino came begging. Liverpool also splashed the cash on Sadio Mane, their reigning player of the season, and with a club record fee being offered it was too hard to say no. Even harder given that Mane, for his occasional brilliance, wasn’t always the most consistent and there’s a bit of a feeling that they might have shafted Liverpool a bit there. It’s typical Liverpool anyway, buying a player who played at his best against them. Mane scored four goals in his last three games vs the Reds, including two in a 45 minute substitute appearance in March as Southampton came from 2-0 down to win 3-2.
Once again, crucial figures are leaving Southampton. Also on that list of note is Graziano Pelle who has understandably cashed in on a fine European Championships to take up one of the highest paid contracts in the world with Shandong Luneng. His case is a little different though. Despite being their top scorer two years ago and second-top last campaign, Pelle was a frustrating fella. Capable of stunning finishes and abysmal misses, Pelle’s conversion rate was terrible compared to other high volume shooters (Kane, Aguero, etc.). Over those two Premier League seasons that he played, scoring 23 goals, he also somehow managed to fire exactly 100 shots off target. Nobody matches that across those 24 months… and here are the numbers to prove it:
Those stats courtesy of whoscored.com and spanning the 2014-15 and 2015-16 seasons.
Pelle’s contract was also running up and the Saints were ready to move on, having even dropped him for a while last season. Charlie Austin was bought in January as an eventual replacement (once he was a little fitter). Jay Rodriguez is also hoping to be back in full contention after two seasons wrecked by injuries. Shane Long looked good at the Euros, there are strikers to spare even without spending big on a replacement.
Which shows you why this club keeps staying so steady despite the constant change. They always have a backup plan and no sooner is one guy gone than another’s already targeted to take their place. In this case, six months in advance.
After getting promoted they signed Gaston Ramirez, Jay Rodriguez, Maya Yoshida, Steven Davis and Nathaniel Clyne. One of those was a bust, the other four have been important players for them. A solid, consolidating effort lead to losing Jason Puncheon but nobody else, really. They added Dani Osvaldo, Victor Wanyama and Dejan Lovren all for between roughly £8-12m. Again, one was a bust and the other two brilliant.
Which is when the perpetual rebuild begins. Liverpool and Brendan Rodgers swarmed in and raided them of Adam Lallana, Dejan Lovren and Rickie Lambert. Manchester United took their academy graduate Luke Shaw and Arsenal a fellow ex-youth teamer in Calum Chambers. Jack Cork moved to Swansea. That was 217 Premier League appearances gone right there in a flash – and that’s only counting matches from that one season. But with that money they were able to pick up Shane Long, Sadio Mane, Dusan Tadic, Fraser Forster and Graziano Pelle – plus Toby Alderweireld and Ryan Bertrand on loan (Bertrand’s later becoming a permanent move). Apart from the loans (Alders = Atletico/Bertrand = Chelsea), those players were all sourced from smaller teams– the likes of Feyenoord, Celtic and Red Bull Salzburg. In fact, Southampton have made a habit of buying from Celtic in the same way that Liverpool have done the same to them.
Keep in mind that they also lost their manager that transfer window and yet they still got better. Ahead of the 2015-16 season, there were only two major exits but they were two near-essential players for them in Morgan Schneiderlin (to Man Utd) and Nathaniel Clyne (to Liverpool). They also had Alderweireld’s permanent transfer clause, which they intended to match, trumped by Tottenham meaning half their defence and their best defensive midfielder were gone. Ridiculous stuff to keep dealing with and yet Alderweireld was superbly replaced by Virgil Van Dijk. Oriol Romeu and Jordy Clasie came in to cover the midfield and Cedric Soares as their new right back. A team that conceded only 33 goals for the second best defence in the league understandably dropped off a bit, but not by too much. They ended up with three points more in 2015-16 and finished one place higher.
And now this time around Pierre-Emile Hojberg has already come in to be the new Wanyama and Nathan Redmond a straight swap for Mane. Plus Claude Puel has been handed the keys to the manager’s car.
Claude Puel is a shrewd signing himself, typical for the Saints. He played 601 times for Monaco as a defensive midfielder – his entire career spent with the one club who he later managed for three seasons before spells with Lille, Lyon and Nice – all of them lasting at least three years. He even played under Arsene Wenger at Monaco. By the looks of the pre-season he’s keen on a 4-3-3 formation which is a little different to what they’d been playing under Koeman and Pochettino but a simple enough transition.
It’s just the kind of appointment you’d expect of these guys. Not the biggest name but a guy who is well-liked and deserving of the step up/across. This is what’s meant by the Gatekeepers idea. Southampton FC is a club with one of the very finest scouting systems in the continent. Scouting is everything for a team in their situation. If you can’t rely on your best players having long careers at the club then you need to be able to replace them as smoothly as possible and ideally as cheap as you can too. They way they’ve done that is by picking up mostly young players whose value is bound to increase over their time with the Saints and also by getting them from clubs who are in that same step-ladder position. Like, Celtic are the best in Scotland but the best in Scotland would rather play for the best in England. Southampton are the team you sign for, have a couple good seasons and then get that big transfer if you can show you’ve earned it. It’s now a pattern but it’s one Southampton will be prepared for.
Players in Scotland, in Holland, in non-Clasico Spanish teams… there’s a discount you can get on their ability that’s there for a team like Southampton to exploit. The best players in Scotland end up at Celtic, right? It’s like the scouting’s already been done. And the more scouting that takes place… or rather the better the scouting… the less risk there is with any transfer. All transfers run the chance of being duds for reasons nobody can predict but if you play it smart then you can offset those duds that do occur. Dani Osvaldo, Juanmi and Gaston Ramirez were all regrettable ones for the Saints however any money lost there has been comfortably eaten up by the profits made from Mane, Schneiderlin and company.
Plus the other thing about being able to identify the best players is that it pays off in your academy. Not many other Premier League clubs can say they’ve brought through as much quality as this one. Names like Gareth Bale, for example. Not to mention Luke Shaw, Calum Chambers, Adam Lallana, Theo Walcott, Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain and Chris Baird. James-Ward-Prowse, Harrison Reed and Matt Targett are the next three to keep an eye out for.
This is the secret to how sustainable this team has been. Everton were in a similar place with David Moyes but they replaced him with a manager fresh off relegation (and an FA Cup, yes) and established concerns about defensive structure. It’s been up and down ever since. West Ham have done the best business of anyone the last couple years but they also haven’t had to deal with having their manager and half their starting XI poached. At least not yet. Spurs are a step up the legitimacy rankings apparently, given they’re one of the teams trading at the Southampton Yard Sale, as are Liverpool even if they keep falling in the same trap of spending like a reckless big club. It’s one thing to be able to afford it, but how many Sadio Mane’s are available in the Bundesliga for half the price? To be fair, once you’re past a certain level of brand appeal, transfer fees mean nothing. They’re just a means to an end, a hurdle to getting that coveted signature on the page. Although given that Liverpool were supposedly out for Mario Gotze at the start of the window, this seems like a plan B or C.
Because Southampton can’t fall back on an enormous kit sponsorship and an endless array of fans all over the world, they can’t just buy whoever they want. They have to be clever about it and they are. Hojberg is a 20 year old Danish player who made his debut for Bayern Munich at only 17 – though through a lack of physicality and the strength of that team he was never quite good enough to crack it there. He’s got skill, he’s got something to prove, he’s available at a decent price and they snapped him up. Nathan Redmond is another who hasn’t quite made the next step in his career but most of that was down to being a winger for a conservative Norwich team.
To be honest, it’s a Football Manager strategy. You invest in youth and you wait for players to reach the bargain bin before you start waving transfer offers around. Pretty much, you recruit as many players as you can that have the potential to be sold at profit. That way your chairman won’t ruin everything by ripping the heart out of your transfer allowance for those bloody “running costs”. Then, if you finally get lucky enough to keep a consistent team into a consecutive season then you might even make a run at something special. Leicester did it without the consolidation period but that’s not a model anyone can really hope to repeat. Southampton have had nothing but consolidation periods and yet they’ve inched further up the table with every season. All it’d take is a couple bad moves for the tower to crumble, say Puel struggles and Hojberg can’t make the step up, but they could just as easily be playing for Champions League this season.
I mean, they sell their best players every year and still keep improving. Either the Saints are living on some saintly blessings or it’s that they’re doing the mid-table team thing smarter than anyone else.
It’s probably a bit of both.