The Wildcard’s Premier League Predictions - Boxing Day & New Years Games

Last Week: 6/10

Overall: 85/170

BOXING DAY FIXTURES

Watford vs Crystal Palace

Tuesday 27 December, 1.30am (NZT)

It’s a good thing I missed my first deadline on this because leading your Premier League news this week:

Alan Pardew has been sacked as manager of Crystal Palace.

And here I was thinking they’d give him another week to see if he could beat Watford or (gulp) Arsenal. But no he’s out on his arse for Christmas Day and he can’t have all that many complaints when his defence plays like a broken banjo. Not sure if Palace fans are ready for what’s coming next either…

Watford aren’t the worst team to be playing at the moment. They’re solid but they’re also dependable on a couple of main players as far as their creativity goes so they’re containable and it so happens that Roberto Pereyra has missed a few games lately and Troy Deeney's not been scoring. Also there’s nobody in their defence who is well matched against Christian Benteke – one thing you can’t say about Palace is that they don’t score goals. That’s what’ll save them and their next manager if it happens that way.

If you’re wondering about the double gameweek of picks, it’s so that I can have a break from these over the holidays, ya know. There’s a midweek set of games straight after which is gonna be a bitch to predict but we’ll see how that goes. The important thing is that I have time to work on my absolutely abysmal fantasy team when that new transfer wildcard comes in. All I want for Christmas at the moment is enough money to buy some more Liverpool midfielders and Chelsea defenders.

Wildcard’s Pick: 2-2

Arsenal vs West Bromwich Albion

Tuesday 27 December, 4.00am (NZT)

Ah for God’s sake can people shut up about Arsenal? Two losses doesn’t mean a crisis, it doesn’t mean that their title challenge is over. Chelsea winning a million games in a row might meant that but Arsenal beat them, nothing to do with their problems. Oh they shoulda bought N’Golo Kante? So should have everyone… but for whatever reason he chose Chelsea. And it’s not like they haven’t stocked that midfield – look at Mohamed Elneny and Granit Xhaka both coming in over the last 12 months. The real thing they needed to strengthen more than that was the central defence and they did – in came Shkodran Mustafi. Guess who didn’t play when they lost to Liverpool in the opening week? Mustafi. Guess who didn’t play against Everton or Man City? Mustafi. He’s undefeated in the Premier League.

Arsenal with Mustafi: 9 wins / 3 draws / 0 losses

Arsenal without Mustafi: 1 win / 1 draw / 3 losses

The proof is in el pudding, mi amigo. Problem is he isn’t expected to play either of these games and Wenger tends not to take too many risks with his injured players.

This is a tricky game as well. West Brom will set in and defend but they’ve also figured out the way to score from that base this season and their strength from set pieces doesn’t exactly mesh with a disjointed defence. The motivation thing with the Gunners is maybe a factor, that I’ll admit. Wenger isn’t a hairdryer type and the fact that Arsenal have been outscored in the first 15 minutes after half time does suggest a team that starts without the required intensity, to quote a Football Manager cliché. They definitely seemed to take the foot off the pedal against Everton and against City they just weren’t as up for it. But City were, which was impressive without Aguero or Fernandinho. Must have been the wake they had for Ilkay Gundogan.

Here ya go, get some gaudy sweaters in ya:

Wildcard’s Pick: Arsenal 2-1… just

Burnley vs Middlesbrough

Tuesday 27 December, 4.00am (NZT)

HEEEEE’S BAAAAACK!

Two promoted sides who’ve largely kept a lot of the same key players that got them up here, although Alvaro Negredo for damn sure won’t find himself in the Championship any time soon – his first goal last week was a beauty. I’m not crossing my fingers that Boro are gonna be able to score goals now suddenly because they bagged a treble of them last game but the confidence will be worth a bit. There shouldn’t be much in this one, Burnley are pretty decent at home – they’ve already beaten Liverpool and Everton at Turf Moor (great name for a ground, btw). Aitor Karanka’s lot have only won once away from home but in the spirit of West Brom before them they’re becoming specialists at the away draw. Five of them in eight matches – no other team has more.

Wildcard’s Pick: 1-1

Swansea City vs West Ham United

Tuesday 27 December, 4.00am (NZT)

Probably not a six-pointer now that West Ham have ground out a couple of wins but it’s huge for both teams all the same because points are not easy to come by in the bottom half. Swansea are sinking fast and Bob Bradley might even find himself sacked before long if things don’t change despite only being hired a little while ago. It’s a results business, ya know.

West Ham were outplayed by Hull. They were lucky to get away with that win and their man of the match, as voted by the fans, was the bloody post. The upright. It saved them more than a couple of times to be honest.

So what, can Swansea put ‘em away where Hull couldn’t? Eh, maybe but it’s not an easy pick to make. I’d say more likely is that West Ham channel their festive focus into a third straight 1-0 win. Slaven Bilic cancelled the staff Xmas party.

“I told my staff no Christmas party. We have a Christmas party in January or February. Let’s do the business, because I want to enjoy that night out. Now we can enjoy it more than a week ago, but I would like to properly enjoy it this year and I can’t.”

As for the players?

“You don’t need a Christmas party to have a beer. I want them to enjoy that we had six points from these two demanding games. They have to relax. If that requires a beer, OK, but there is something between a couple of beers and getting smashed for three nights in a row.”

Oh thank God. I can hear Andy Carroll’s sigh of relief from here.

Cheikh Kouyate’s been really good recently at CB with Winston Reid. They just need someone to replace Ogbonna and his brain fades. Seems to have more personality than Winston too…

Wildcard’s Pick: 1-0 West Ham

Manchester United vs Sunderland

Tuesday 27 December, 4.00am (NZT)

Things are breaking well for Man United. In beating West Brom they finally seemed to figure out that the best way to protect a 1-0 lead is by making it a 2-0 lead and that's meant three wins in a row. Next up they’re home to Sunderland and Middlesbrough, followed by West Ham away, Reading in the FA Cup, Hull in the EFL Cup and then Liverpool so that ten game unbeaten streak in all competitions should last another couple of weeks yet.

I mean, they can’t not beat Sunderland. It’s David Moyes returning to Old Trafford where he had so many wonderful days… more than Jose Mourinho has so far, I’ll say that much and they’re already talking about a contract extension for the guy. Hey Woodward, haven’t you heard of the third season thing? Come on, bro.

Jose Mourinho at OT: 8 G | 3 W | 4 D | 1 L | +5 GD | 13 PTS

David Moyes at OT: 16 G | 7 W | 3 D | 6 L | +3 GD | 24 PTS

(only in the Premier League, to be safe)

If anything Moyes is landing more blows but it looks like Mourinho’s gonna win it by a points decision. The fella got sacked after losing to his old team Everton at his old ground of Goodison Park. That’s not the best foreshadowing of this one, though his job with Sunders is very safe right now, even if they’re still terrible. What are they gonna do, hire Alan Pardew? Moyes will get January to see what he can pick up in the loan market, maybe a few cheeky undercover continental dudes. They’re coming off a big win against Watford so that all helps.

By the way, what have these three got in common?

Answer: They’re the only three players to have scored for Sunderland this season in the Prem. Defoe, Anichebe and Van Aanholt. The fewest ever across a season is six goal scorers by Arsenal in 1993-94, although Ian Wright scored 23 goals and they qualified for Europe so it’s not necessarily a terrible thing.

Wildcard’s Pick: Man Utd 3-0

Chelsea vs Bournemouth

Tuesday 27 December, 4.00am (NZT)

Chelsea have only conceded four second half goals all season. They’ve scored 20. That’s insane to me, a +16 goal difference in second halves. Don’t go selling that whole ‘defensive’ idea. They’re a great defensive team but they score goals and they try to score more after they do.

Here’s something to aspire to:

Umm, well Bournemouth have only won once on the road all season and it was a 1-0er over Stoke. They’ve scored less than a goal a game in away matches and the chances of them beating Chelsea at Stamford Bridge is somewhere in the vicinity of slim to nil. Having said that, the beautiful thing about the Cherries is that they have these crazy upsets in them every now and then. Plus they won at the Bridge last season, 1-0 thanks to a late Glenn Murray goal. It was Jose Mourinho’s first ever loss to a newly promoted Premier League team. Crazy thing is that was less than 13 months ago.

Diego Costa is finally suspended after sitting on four yellows for a quarter of the season. He’s been essential to them on this win streak so that could mean a vulnerability. They’ve been able to find a way every time they’ve been stretched so far though, the Blues will lose eventually but for now you simply can’t pick it.

Wildcard’s Pick: Chelsea 2-0

Leicester City vs Everton

Tuesday 27 December, 4.00am (NZT)

Down 2-0 at half time and down to ten men. On the road, where they’ve been horrible all season. Flash forward 45 minutes and Leicester had snuck out a 2-2 draw. There’s a little of that champion spirit in them yet.

Everton were the opposite, letting a valuable point slip in the Merseyside Derby as Sadio Mane stepped up with the injury time winner. Silly Everton, didn’t they realise I’d picked a draw? All goods I guess, I’ve had a good couple weeks of predictions, getting back up to 50% on the season. Eat that, Mark Lawrenson.

Foxes at home = different story. They couldn’t get Jamie Vardy’s suspension overturned but I’m not sure that’s the worst thing. He finally scored again with that thrilling hat-trick against City and between that result and this one vs Stoke there’s reason to think they’re ready for a festive run of form… if you ignore the 1-0 defeat to Bournemouth in between. Having to switch up their way of play might help, like going with the two target men up top in Ulloa and Slimani. Seemed to work alright. Playing with ten men and a sense of injustice seemed to bring out the fiery underdog in them once again and if they can channel that again then bloody hell. Everton have lost four away games in a row, can’t say they look to have the same camaraderie.

Hey if you’re still looking for something to get me for Christmas, I’ll take literally anything from this page:

Wildcard’s Pick: 2-1 Leicester

Hull City vs Manchester City

Tuesday 27 December, 6.30am (NZT)

Next time I roll my ankle at five-a-side I’m expecting to get the same public funeral service that Ilkay Gundogan got for his season-ender. This has overbearing Guardiola sentimentality written all over it.

Wildcard’s Pick: City 3-1

Liverpool vs Stoke City

Wednesday 28 December, 6.15am (NZT)

Hugs for all!

Wildcard’s Pick: Liverpool 2-0

Southampton vs Tottenham Hotspur

Thursday 29 December, 8.45am (NZT)

There isn’t a game this week that feels more suited to a draw, not even Burnley-Boro. Spurs might snatch it because the Saints are having a few troubles putting goals away (they really do need another striker) but these along with Arsenal and Chelsea (maaaaybe Man United’s) are amongst the best defences in the league. Toby Alderweireld knows that, he’s played for both. And Virgil Van Dijk, also known as my favourite player, was bought to replace him. Add in some Vertonghen and some Fonte and a quartet of rapid full backs and see whassup from there.

File this under bad news for Southampton: Sofiane Boufal’s been included in Morocco’s preliminary squad for the African Cup of Nations. They’re so shallow for goal scorers it’s like they’re swimming in the kiddy pool.

One of the best centre-halves you’ve played with, son? What, you mean he’s better than Sébastien Bassong, Steven Caldwell and any of those Russell Martin? Better than any of those youth level England defenders you played with?

Wildcard’s Pick: 1-1

NEW YEARS FIXTURES

Hull City vs Everton

Saturday 31 December, 9.00am (NZT)

Courtesy of whoscored.com, here is the league table as of the half-way point last season…

Now here’s the league table as it finished. There oughta be enough motivation in there for both of these two teams…

Hull could use it too because their most creative player has been Robert Snodgrass and he’s off contract in six months. They offered him a new deal, he said no thanks and now he’s probably gotta be sold in January. Not necessarily, they might keep him to try stay up knowing that he’ll leave for nothing but that avoiding relegation is worth more but an unhappy chappie isn’t always the best idea in a relegation hunt where those intangible ideas of heart and passion and culture all come bleeding to the front. Snodgrass could be a handy addition for a team like Burnley, Middlesbrough or Stoke… possibly even West Brom or these Everton buggers too. But I’m a bit worried that Newcastle are gonna swoop in and pry another top flight player to their promotion campaign.

It’s hard to imagine anyone really wanting to play for Hull anyway.

Wildcard’s Pick: Everton 2-0

Burnley vs Sunderland

Sunday 1 January, 4.00am (NZT)

Burnley have lost five of their last six and while I’ve given them a draw on Boxing Day, if they can’t win here then they’re gonna find themselves still on the fringes of the drop zone. The good news is that it’s against Sunderland so if there’s a game all season they’re targeting it’ll be home against Sunderland…. And home against Hull and Swansea too. They’ve already buggered up by not beating Hull at home, although that was early one when Hull still had that first wind of energy.

These two teams play again at the opposite venue in the FA Cup exactly a week later. In between Burnley are away at Man City and Sunderland are home to Liverpool.

Hey look, Gary Neville and Jamie Carragher named their teams of the half-season. I’m gonna do mine in a week or so, which means you don’t get to see it yet but instead I’ll grace you with my destructive thoughts on their ones…

Jordan Pickford in goal? Good for Sunderland fans but hard to think he’s been better than the usual champs like Hugo Lloris, Petr Cech, Thibaut Courtois and David De Gea. Sort it out, Carragher. I’m not gonna argue with Neville taking Courtois though. Three quarters of the back four are the same, all goods. I’m considering making my team a 3-4-3, also I think Rose > Bertrand at LB. Lallana’s gotta be in there, fair enough, but not taking Sanchez is a travesty, even ahead of Zlatan whose form the last month has been a huge step up on his first couple months. A few people that got stiffed by each of them that didn’t deserve it:

  • Shkodran Mustafi
  • Laurent Koscielny
  • David De Gea
  • Paul Pogba
  • Coutinho
  • Wilfried Zaha
  • Sadio Mane
  • Marcos Alonso
  • Ander Herrera
  • Winston Reid
  • Christian Eriksen
  • Romelu Lukaku
  • Joe Allen
  • Idrissa Gueye
  • Antonio Valencia
  • Mesut Ozil

Wildcard’s Pick: Burnley… 1-0

Manchester United vs Middlesbrough

Sunday 1 January, 4.00am (NZT)

Jose Mourinho: “In Portugal the front pages say every player in Portugal is coming to Manchester United. It is normal the connection with me, but I keep saying the same - I like my squad, I want to keep my squad. I believe more in the summer market than the winter transfer window as it gives you more stability, more time and more choice. Let's see what happens. If we buy a player we buy a player, but we are not buying two, three or four. If we open the door for someone to leave, it is not because we push him but because he wants to leave.”

Lots of common sense in that, actually. I always beat the drum about January transfer bollocks – it’s for relegation teams and project players. You don’t hardly ever get a mid-season buy who immediately has an impact on a top team. Though I can definitely see Mourinho picking up a name, I’d imagine he sees this more as a chance to offload some of the people who’ve decided they’d maybe prefer to play for a team where they get to… well, play.

United get listed as a 4-2-3-1 every week but really it’s closer to a 4-3-3, with Pogba at the head of a midfield triangle, granted with the wingers still asked to get back and defend (whereas Chelsea’s top three doesn’t need to do that). It’s pretty much coincided with Pogba’s best form of the season and the club’s best run of results so far. And when I say ‘coincided’ what I really mean is ‘a direct result of’.

Keep an eye on Ben Gibson for Boro. That guy’s a great player.

Wildcard’s Pick: Man Utd 2-0

Swansea City vs Bournemouth

Sunday 1 January, 4.00am (NZT)

Guess what, Jack Wilshere finally got himself an assist last week – his first direct involvement in a goal since he joined Bournemouth… and it came in the game they pushed him further back to play in the midfield. That might not last and to be honest it wasn’t a great idea against a Southampton team that plays three through the middle to begin with. With Wilshere at the ten, he’s like an extra midfielder anyway, 2.5 guys through the middle. If he’s playing deeper than it’s almost like 1.5 and while he himself was pretty solid, despite the defeat, his partner Harry Arter was crap – completing 96.4% of his passes but getting completely overrun without the ball. Hey, they’ll have played again by the time of this one so we’ll have to see how things play out.

Shout out to Steve Cook. He’s played Conference footy, he’s played League One, he’s played Championship and he’s played Premier League and he should be on the fringes of an international call up some time soon. He’s still only 25 years old as well. He’s leading the league by a distance with 177 clearances.

Also, this is as endearing a story as I’ve heard in ages from a footballer. Mate the amount of times I’d felt like doing the same thing you wouldn’t even believe it. Unless you play Football Manager, then you’ll know the hurt and the pain:

Looks like I’ve picked Swansea to lose at home to two teams that are within the range of beatability for them. Gylfi Sigurdsson needs to get with Snodgrass’ agent and find himself an escape rope. The Swans were doomed the second they sold Ashley Williams – they’ve conceded at least three goals in four of their last five games and when you’re sitting in the relegation zone then that’s a recipe for disaster. They’ve scored more goals than Southampton, Stoke and West Ham yet have a -17 goal difference.

Wildcard’s Pick: 1-0 Bournemouth

Chelsea vs Stoke City

Sunday 1 January, 4.00am (NZT)

Some recent Chelsea transfer business:

  • Papy Djilobodji to Sunderland for £8m
  • Ramires to JS Suning for £24m
  • Romelu Lukaku to Everton for £30m
  • David Luiz to PSG for £42m
  • Andre Schurrle to Wolfsburg for £27m
  • Juan Mata to Man Utd for £38m

And now they’re talking about £60m for Oscar, who like all those other guys is a player who isn’t in their first XI. Now, Luiz and Mata would have been were it not for Jose Mourinho but it’s not like they weren’t also well covered for. The manager always gets the credit for that stuff but the real superstar is director Marina Granovskaia, who is considered one of Roman Abramovic’s most favoured allies and for good reason. She’s the chief negotiator at the club, not only in terms of transfers but also that little old £900m kit deal with Nike. That’s called taking care of business.

As indeed they oughta do at home to Stoke. The streak continues…

Wildcard’s Pick: 1-0 to Chelsea

Southampton vs West Bromwich Albion

Sunday 1 January, 4.00am (NZT)

Alright you cheeky buggers, you wanna see who’s winning the Niche Cache Invitational FPL League? I’ll give you a clue, it ain’t me. My team’s a disaster, although Matty Phillips and Wilfried Zaha are gonna save me… maybe. Probably not. Ah jeez, I need that wildcard so bad.

Wildcard’s Pick: Southampton 1-0

Leicester City vs West Ham United

Sunday 1 January, 4.00am (NZT)

Apparently West Ham have sent out inquiries to all the top five clubs about pretty much anybody not playing regularly for them. Anthony Martial, Dan Sturridge, Michy Batshuayi… anybody. They’ll take ‘em all on loan, whatever it takes. Not only strikers either but central defenders and fullbacks. Probably midfielders too. I’d imagine we see a bit of production on those fronts. Jose Mourinho is one who’s known to use January to offload, wouldn’t be shocked at all if he takes them up on it.

By the way, the top five doesn’t include Spurs, who are the other member of what’s really a big six. I remember when it was a big four… but I digress. Spurs and West Ham don’t like each other and they tend not to do business with each other. Arsenal ought to be the same but they think they’re better than West Ham so they don’t care, note Carl Jenkinson – who might be available again. And they are better, so no dramas.

If both of these teams are at their dramatic best then this could be a classic. Penalties left, right and centre, full of dramatic/calamitous defence and midfields completely overpassed by some creative geniuses. But… that’s not gonna happen, is it? I wouldn’t wanna be the ref of a game between these two, there was all sorts of drama last season and the way they’re each going there’ll be more here.

Wildcard’s Pick: 1-0 Leicester

Liverpool vs Manchester City

Sunday 1 January, 6.30am (NZT)

Biggest game of the busy week, it’s time for Liverpool to muster up against a big team again and as for City they’ve gotta keep up the momentum after a huge win over Arsenal. Even though all the pressure’s been on the Gunners for how they lost and how that fits into the standard narrative about them, the result is a pretty crucial one for the Citizens too. It’s been up and down, they really needed that. Without Aguero or Fernandinho either.

These two teams contested the EFL Cup (back when it was still the League Cup) final last season with City taking it on penalties. But in the league it was all red, Liverpool winning both games and by a combined score of 7-1. They’ve won four of their last five Prem games vs City. That’s bloody crazy, what a record. When you’ve got a team like City who are all about carfeul build up and dominant possession, trying to control the tempo and all that, a side that brings the chaos like Jurgen Klopp’s one is the worst kinda side to come up against. Plus, oh look, both teams have gone even further in each direction in the last nine months since they last played.

Another reason to lean red: Liverpool have 5 wins and 2 draws at home this season, from their seven games. Not a loss among them, while the two draws were a 0-0 stalemate against Man United where Mourinho more or less parked the bus and then 2-2 vs West Ham in their last home game which if they played the same game over a hundred times they’d win it 90 times. 68% possession and 18 shots but some crap keeping cost them a couple points. Goalkeeping’s been a theme for both of these teams.

Take that even further, actually. Defending in general has been a theme and so the chances of us being blessed with goals are extremely high.

Wildcard’s Pick: 3-2 to Liverpool

Watford vs Tottenham Hotspur

Monday 2 January, 2.30am (NZT)

A new contract for Hugo Lloris, sounds like a good idea to me.

As for Watford, regardless of all else they can still boast the best mascot in the division:

Wildcard’s Pick: Spurs 2-1

Arsenal vs Crystal Palace

Monday 2 January, 5.00am (NZT)

Wildcard’s Pick: Arsenal 3-1

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Written by Nick Robinson On Tagged ,