The Wildcard’s Premier League Predictions - Week 10

Last Week: 5/10

Overall: 46/90

Sunderland vs Arsenal

Sunday 12.30am (NZT)

Clearly they gave David Moyes the wrong job description. Here he is trying to execute a long term plan with all his young signings and he’s stuck in a perennially short term club. A loss to West Ham (shouts to Winston Reid) makes it nine games without a win to start things and it marks Sunderland’s worst ever start to a top-flight season. Two points from nine games, even worse than the three they took in 1969-70. QPR once went winless for the first 16 games of a Premier League season so there’s been worse but remember Sunderland also didn’t win last season until their tenth game last season – though they did bag three draws to keep things respectable, and at a better goal difference than the -14 they had in 69-70, hence that one was worse.

Oh and how’s this one:

Yeah that’s tragic. Though to be fair most teams that go winless through the first nine top flight games don’t tend to get another go at the top-flight the following season.

Last season they ended the drought at this exact point with a 3-0 home win over Newcastle – which must’ve hurt for the Magpies, for sure. But, ah, of the goal-scorers that day only Billy Jones remains at the club and he’s only played twice this season. Steven Fletcher is at Sheffield Wednesday after a loan at Marseille and Adam Johnson… well, he’s in prison.

Now spare a thought for Jack Rodwell. The lad has started 32 games for Sunderland and he’s not won a single one of them. He’s won a few games off the bench, sure, but after three years and five months the club has yet to record a victory with Roddy in the starting XI. It took Gareth Bale 22 draws and losses before he won a start with Spurs but Rodwell’s is a Premier League record. Hopefully his teammates haven’t heard this scoop yet or there might be violence.

So guts that they’re playing a rampant Gunners team who found themselves thwarted last week by that stubborn Boro team and aren’t all that likely to take it easy on them now. Especially with The Ox coming into some form! Not that he’ll play, of course. It won’t matter.

Here’s a Sunderland player’s attempt at a tweet. Puts it all in perspective, don’t it Vic?

Wildcard’s Pick: Arsenal 3-0

Watford vs Hull City

Sunday 3.00am (NZT)

Instead of putting any unnecessary focus on this one, instead here are seven things that I think:

  1. Daniel Sturridge will never be a first choice striker for Klopp, no matter how many goals he scores.
  2. Jose Mourinho doesn’t really know what to do when he’s not nursing an inferiority complex.
  3. Sergio Aguero is going nowhere – Pep is more flexible than people think.
  4. Virgil Van Dijk is the best defender in the Premier League.
  5. The line-of-sight argument for offsides (like Calleri for WHU last week) is really stupid. Judgement calls on ‘interfering with play’ or not are really stupid.
  6. Antonio Conte is allowed to whoop up his own fans. Jose Mourinho is allowed to be mad at that. It’s all part of the fun – and there’s nothing to get wound up over if your team didn’t just get whacked.
  7. Arsene Wenger is gonna come back next season.

Thanks for indulging me. Watford should win this because any team facing Hull at home should be plotting for a victory and the Hornets have sneakily taken five points from their last three games. Not the toughest schedule, and this game only adds to that claim, but that’s why they need to be making hay now. To be honest they were lucky to hold on to a point against Swansea – though luck tends to be a trait of teams that know what they’re doing.

Speaking of luck, they’ve had a bit of it in avoiding any serious punishments for forging a bank letter a few years back. Dumb buggers, the word is that they won’t be deducted points so whatever fine and slap on the wrist they do get won’t affect the fans or the players other than a little bit of embarrassment.

Wildcard’s Pick: Watford 1-0

West Bromwich Albion vs Manchester City

Sunday 3.00am (NZT)

That’s some sexual stuff right there.

But things aren’t the smoothest for City at the mo’, what with no wins in their last six games in all comps. It’s the longest drought of Pep’s career as a manager, so there you go. Though to be fair, it’s been a brutal stretch with Spurs away, Everton, Barcelona away, Southampton and Man United away all in there… though it started with a 3-3 draw in Glasgow against this funny bastard:

It was also his first ever loss to Manchester United, a team he’s faced in multiple Champions League finals before. But, come on, they started a bunch of kids in this one. Aguero and Sterling came off the bench, no De Bruyne or Silva. It’s only a worry in the larger context of the six games. The last time he went five games winless was with Bayern but that included games after the Bundesliga was already wrapped up. Also a 3-0 beating at the hands of Barca in a UCL semi but yeah.

They won a treble that season.

They’ll come right and probably reel off a dozen undefeated now though watching that EFL Cup game I’ve gotta say I’m not too optimistic about Vincent Kompany, finally playing in back to back games and he couldn’t make it past half-time. Not only that though, he was really poor for those 45 mins. Nic Otamendi didn’t help him by diving in all over the place but that’s just Nic being Nic. Vinnie looked rustier than the portholes of the titanic.

We can all guess how West Brom will approach this game. If they’re sitting back and City are popping 20 shots then this isn’t going to work for the Baggies. Hey I’ll be generous though. A very hard fought win to get them back on track.

Wildcard’s Pick: City 1-0, naturally

Manchester United vs Burnley

Sunday 3.00am (NZT)

I wish I didn’t have to go in depth on Man United every damn week but then Jose is just so good for it. He had to pick Fellaini, didn’t he? And then he went and told him to rush forward against the Chelsea defence. When that ball went over the top for the first goal 30 seconds into the game, Fellaini was running around in the CFC half for no reason. And when you pick a team that’s aim is to frustrate and keep it tight, then you’re buggered if you go behind that early. They looked rattled for twenty minutes, then they conceded again and Chelsea had the game in their pockets without even having to try. The two they scored in the second half were just lazy defending, the type of thing that happens when you’re chasing a game at the other end.

And yet Mourinho still gets a bad rap for all this stuff. Oh he hates Henrikh Mkhitaryan. How about the fact he didn’t pick him because there’s no way he’s match fit. There’s always gonna be someone left out in a big squad and the half-fit dude is usually the one. No dramas, he’ll come into the fold in the next few weeks as the fixture list is slightly kinder.

Ah but having said that, read what you may into these deleted tweets from Luke Shaw’s brother after the England defender was left out of the side that got smashed by Chelsea.

I agree, there seems to be something about Shaw that Mourinho doesn’t trust. He dressed him down after the Watford defeat and he hasn’t started a league game since, though he had been injured. But then Mou isn’t a guy that makes too many changes, he likes to stick with the winning formula and Daley Blind had been playing very well there. Now Eric Bailly is out for two months, which is a huge blow, Blind will move central and Shaw presumably returns as first choice. That’s tops, I love a bit of Luke Shaw. I think he’s a brilliant player.

And, uhh… I wouldn’t disagree with Ben Shaw over Marcos Rojo either, though the lad had a solid one in the League Cup win vs City. Can’t cook toast, by the way. You seen this before?

They’ll get a bit of confidence from knocking their rivals out of the EFL Cup, even though you could tell from the teams named that Utd cared about it a little more. And it really does get easier for the next couple weeks. Now is the time to make a run and climb a couple spots. With the top seven or eight teams all capable of beating each other this season, a few weeks can make a huge difference.

I’m not entirely sure how Burnley managed to win that game over Everton but it was a bloody sight to see, that’s the truth. Next to no possession and a 2-1 win. That’s the sign of a team all working towards the same cause. Hmm but while they’ve kept two clean sheets with seven points in their last three at Turf Moor, they’ve also conceded three in each of their last away games and this is at Old Trafford.

Wildcard’s Pick: Man Utd 3-0

Tottenham Hotspur vs Leicester City

Sunday 3.00am (NZT)

Premier League Players to make the 30-Man Ballon d’Or Shortlist:

  • Sergio Aguero (Manchester City)
  • Kevin de Bruyne (Manchester City)
  • Zlatan Ibrahimovic (Manchester United)
  • Hugo Lloris (Tottenham Hotspur)
  • Riyad Mahrez (Leicester City)
  • Dimitri Payet (West Ham)
  • Paul Pogba (Manchester United)
  • Jamie Vardy (Leicester City)

That’s 8 outta 30, though really you’d say that Ibra and Pogba did all their damage before they moved to England so they don’t exactly count. There were five nominees based in Germany, three in Italy and one in Portugal, with Spain leading the way with 13… unsurprisingly. Obviously it’s a travesty that Alexis Sanchez and David De Gea isn’t there, not even a fella like Leo Bonucci, but these things are always a bit subjective.

Both of these teams have nominees but the one I wanna really focus on is Jamie Vardy. From non-league to Ballon d’Or, right? Winning the Premier League, going good in the Champions League too. International caps. What a story, one we’ve all heard but one that lives on.

Except… Vardy’s been shite this season. He had a flash in the pan season for the ages but he hasn’t carried that on. He did score in the win over Swansea (a team that’s since sacked their manager) and he pulled one back against his bully boys Liverpool too but that’s it for his season goals. Since then he’s without one in his last nine appearances in all comps, two of those off the bench. 2 goals in 668 mins in the Prem vs 24 goals in 3140. Them ratios are not even close. He’s taking 1.4 shots a game against 3.2 last time. 0.8 key passes versus 1.3 of them. 0.4 dribbles against 1.1 and 0.1 fouls per game against 0.8 per game. It’s still a small enough sample size to be skewed by a bad ones but that’s a massive drop off.

And those number back up what I see on the park. He’s been more focussed in the Champions League and that’s okay though if he’s gonna be holding back that much in league games then he shouldn’t be playing in them. The effort is down. The runs aren’t coming as often. He’s not attacking defenders like he did before. He’s not unleashing shots. Hell, he’s making it easy for the people trying to defend him.

Meanwhile the hardest working striker in the league, Shinji Okazaki, found his way to the bench as Vardy kept on playing. I pointed out last week that the Foxes’ PL form isn’t as bad as people are saying – they’ve actually been pretty decent at home, it’s just away from home where they’ve been abysmal. And last week Ranieri dropped Vardy, recalled Okazaki, gave my man Musa a run and let Slimani loose.

The result was a comprehensive 3-0 win over Crystal Palace. Now that’s the blueprint. Which made me wonder if Arsene Wenger is wiping his brow over Jamie Vardy turning them down. That’s gonna go down in history as a huge ‘what if…?’.

Every time Leicester play a top team it’s a reminder of last season. These two actually played four times last season, including in both Cups. Two draws and a win each but Leicester’s win came in the league and that sure proved crucial in the end. Obviously this one isn’t gonna even the ledgers then but I do think they’ll win it. I don’t really have to justify that any further than saying: Leicester are playing away.

Also, I’ve said it a few times about Vincent Janssen struggling and with him yet to score from open play that’s starting to be a bit of a thing. I doubt the popularity of this column is so vast now that I’m affecting the pundits’ opinions, more likely they’re just seeing the same thing as me (though it’d be funny if that was the case because I’ve stolen more than a couple ideas myself in the past). So I wanna say this: he carved up in the Dutch league last year. 27 goals in the Eredivisie, and he’s only 22 years old. Now he’s taking a while to adapt to England. Very reminiscent of Memphis Depay, don’t you think? Don’t count either of them out for a year or two yet.

Wildcard’s Pick: Spurs 2-1

Middlesbrough vs Bournemouth

Sunday 3.00am (NZT)

Ah, here we have the two teams that went and spoiled the two predictions I was most confident of last week, the buggers. Clearly I misjudged Man United heading to Stamford Bridge (though I’m pretty sure there was something in there about impending doom if Marouane Fellaini was selected… true to form he was) and a few others, like Southampton holding City and Everton slipping up, I can live with for sure. But I thought the North Londoners woudla got the business done.

Instead Spurs drew with Bourney and Boro held the Gunners. Ooh and Jack Wilshere played all 90 minutes of that one for his first full PL game in, like, two years so there was that too. A small positive for Arsenal to lean on in it all – both of those two passed up the chance to go top of the table by drawing.

Boro needed their draw more but they still need a win to really haul themselves out of the mud. Seven goals in nine games. Guess who’s taken the fewest shots per game this season? Nope, you’re wrong, it’s actually Burnley with 8.7, and Hull with 9.0. But Boro are next with 9.1. They were a team I rated coming into the season and they’ve shown that for a promoted team their defence is really good. They hold the ball okay, they work hard. But… they’re not creative. Not even a little bit. Against Arsenal Aitor Karanka finally made a slight alteration to the shape, going 4-5-1 rather than 4-2-3-1 and that gave them a little more width and a little more presence in the middle. Except it takes away even more from an already limited attack. I dunno, it ain’t my problem to solve. To be fair they had the chances against the Gunners to have snuck that one. Only 25% possession though, the plan was clear and evident.

Wildcard’s Pick: 0-0

Crystal Palace vs Liverpool

Sunday 5.30am (NZT)

Crystal Palace once ended Liverpool’s famous Rodgers/Suarez title bid with a couple of late Dwight Gayle goals (that dude is on FIRE for Newcastle these days) but now the Reds seem to think they have a damn good chance of winning that elusive title this time around. The three teams above them all drew last week and, look, we’re only nine games in but there’s a single point splitting the top five teams in the Premier League. This is outstanding competition.

This was the line-up in Brendan Rodgers’ last game in charge – a 1-1 draw vs Everton:

Mignolet, Can, Skrtel, Sahko, Clyne, Moreno, Milner, Lucas, Coutinho, Sturridge, Ings

And now the starting XI that beat West Brom on the weekend:

Karius, Clyne, Matip, Lovren, Milner, Lallana, Henderson, Can, Mane, Firmino, Coutinho

Well now that’s a bit of a contrast. Since Klopp took over about a year and a week ago, he’s undergone a pretty substantial overhaul of this squad. Even the guys that are the same, he’s playing them in different roles often – Milner at left back, bro! Good to see Danny Ings back playing in the League Cup too, believe it or not it was his first appearance at the top level since that final Rodgers game.

Even more important is that he’s brought depth to the team. One injury doesn’t mean a drastic reshuffle. Not quite enough of it but it’s growing. Hey and I quite enjoyed the way that Trent Alexander-Arnold went about things in the EFL Cup. Good youngster there. Kevin Stewart has some potential about him as well.

Wildcard’s Pick: Liverpool 2-1

Everton vs West Ham United

Monday 2.30am (NZT)

I’m gonna give away a secret here, Romelu Lukaku’s been switched into being my fantasy captain this week. Why did I do that? Why, come along with me friend and I’ll demonstrate…

The last eight times Everton have played West Ham:

MAR 2016 -> Everton 2-3 West Ham (PL) – Lukaku scored

NOV 2015 -> West Ham 1-1 Everton (PL) – Lukaku scored

MAY 2015 -> West Ham 1-2 Everton (PL) – Lukaku scored

JAN 2015 -> West Ham 2-2 Everton (FA) – Lukaku scored

JAN 2015 -> Everton 1-1 West Ham (FA) – Lukaku scored

NOV 2014 -> Everton 2-1 West Ham (LP) – Lukaku scored

MAR 2014 -> Everton 1-0 West Ham (PL) – Lukaku scored

SEPT 2013 -> West Ham 2-3 Everton (PL) – Lukaku scored

Eight consecutive games against them and he’s scored eight goals. And then you factor in that he’s scored six times in his last six Premier League games with two assists as well and there you go.

Although West Ham did just put together a win streak at home, beating Sunderland in the last moment and then knocking Chelsea out of the League Cup. That is, finally, more like it. Edmilson Fernandes looks okay as a fullback, discovering the answer they needed right below their noses. Hey and one more time for Winston Reid, folks.

Wildcard’s Pick: 2-2

Southampton vs Chelsea

Monday 5.00am (NZT)

Nice to see Kurt Zouma getting back on the park for the under-23s, after that horrible injury he suffered last season. Especially nice for Antonio Conte because it doesn’t look like there’s too much left in the legs of John Terry.

This is bound to be a big one for Oriol Romeu, one of the many young Chelsea players cast from the club with no real path into the first team. Once upon a time he was manning the middle of the park in the Barca academy too. This season he’s finally making his name with the Saints, yet another guy thriving at the Saints after their typically on the money scouts spotted him.

I really rate Southampton and I think they make up the last team of a clear top eight on the league table, which is so good because only seven of them are gonna make Europe next season. And I dunno if I feel as highly about Chelsea or not, yet. Thumping Mourinho and co. 4-0 was really something but like I said before I’m not even sure they played that well. It all kinda fell into place for them thanks to Jose’s lack of ambition and United’s mistakes. Southampton aren’t going to make things so easy for them but equally I don’t know that they can break down the Blues defence either. Say what you will about the individual characteristics of that backline but they’re all cancelled out by Antonio Conte’s own.

Which leads me firmly towards draw territory.

Wildcard’s Pick: 0-0

Stoke City vs Swansea City

Tuesday 9.00am (NZT)

And this is why Stoke are way too good to be relegated. They have people like Xherdan Shaqiri who do things like that. Remember when he almost signed with Stoke and then said nah you guys are too crap and then changed his mind and joined them anyway? Remember when he saved Swiss arses in the Euros with that bicycle kick goal? He’s not the most reliable or consistent but damn when he’s on he’s really on. He only scores goals worth replaying over and over.

Two wins in a row for Stoke too, they could make it three and really put some early pressure on Bob Bradley. The Monday night kick off throws up a few tricks for both teams and I do like the idea of home field advantage in that situation. Yeah, book in Stoke for a win then. God, I can’t believe I even wrote those words.

Wildcard’s Pick: Stoke 1-0

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Written by Nick Robinson On Tagged ,