The Wildcard’s Premier League Predictions - Week 25
Last Week: 6/10
Overall: 125/380
Arsenal vs Hull City
Sunday 1.30am (NZT)
WENGER OUT! WENGER OUT! WENGER OUT!
Oh… hello, didn’t see you there. Yes I s’pose it’s time for a bit of Premier League picking then, aye? A few considered opinions on the state of things, a few stats and stories, a few hastily scribbled score predictions… you know what’s up.
Or we could just watch Arsenal Fan TV rants all day. WENGER OUT! WENGER OUT! WENGER OUT!
Look, Arsenal were always gonna lose to Chelsea. They’re a top team with aggressive players who play to a strict formula and that’s about the biggest Achilles heel for Arsenal. They aren’t that organised themselves so when they come up against a rigid side they struggle. Normally that means a lesser side sitting in and defending and allowing Alexis Sanchez 15 shots to eventually find a way through (not those two games against Burnley) but here Chelsea combined structure with talent and that wasn’t ever gonna go well.
Case and point, that goal from Eden Hazard. Brilliant strength and skill and a silky finish but the way that those Gunners sat off and watched was just shocking. The only dude that really got involved was Francis Coquelin and he made a first class fool of himself. Oh man, that was embarrassing.
Coquelin, as a defensive midfielder who only really knows how to defend, has got to know that it’s fine to give away the foul there. N’Golo Kante would have fouled if he had to. Ander Herrera would already have fouled him before anyone noticed the space in behind. Jordan Henderson woulda left three springs in his shinpad. That’s what a good midfielder knows to do. That way they don’t score and effectively kill the game, that way you don’t end up arse over tit on the grass.
Doesn’t help that they have a 100% record in the 13 games that Coquelin hasn’t started in across all competitions this season. Meanwhile this game cost Shkodran Mustafi his unbeaten Arsenal career.
Then again I also saw this, assume it’s from the last week so maybe Le Coq isn’t the biggest muppet of the last week.
Arsenal will be fine, they should finish top four and that’ll be okay. It’s far from a sure thing with the Manchester clubs rising but there’s lots to play for yet. What’s striking about these last two defeats is the commitment of some of their dudes. Theo Walcott probably shouldn’t play anymore but if he does it can’t be in the same team as Mesut Ozil because neither of them defend. Even Coquelin sometimes gets caught jogging back. It’s insane but then it’s Arsenal. Should get a win back against Hull here, the Tigers playing a lot better now but they’ll be setting up for a draw and, well, you know.
Wildcard’s Pick: Arsenal 2-1
Stoke City vs Crystal Palace
Sunday 4.00am (NZT)
Somewhere along the last few weeks things have gotten bad enough for Palace that what looked like a sure-thing three-team relegation pool has now expanded to six teams and you’d have to say that unless Monsieur Allardyce does that thing that he does in saving a team inexplicably then they’re looking damn likely for the drop. Them, Sunderland and Hull… as things stand anyway. Middlesbrough are in that group until they figure out how to turn some of those draws into wins and Leicester City, well… I’ll come back to them. Swansea are the side that’s swapper fortunes with Palace.
The drama’s reached the point where the Palace chairman Steve Parish (Alan Pardew’s best mate) went and visited the CPFC changing rooms after they got smoked 4-0 by Allardyce’s old team Sunderland to give them a lecture on ‘passion’ and all that. Things are bad, man. A fan ran onto the park at half-time of that game to yell in Damien Delaney’s face.
Yeeow.
Allardyce then demanded a 7am report time for training the next day (on a bloody SUNDAY!). Cracking the whip there, old fella. Anyway, Palace should be a little better with Jeffrey Schlupp, Mamadou Sakho and Luka Milivojevic all available after their transfers.
Clearly losing 4-0 to Sunderland is as bad as it gets. Things will be better against Stoke, though Stoke are six games without defeat at home so maybe better won’t be good enough. Then against Palace beat them 4-1 back in September and have in fact won five in a row against the ol’ Potters. Whatever that’s worth.
Nah, Stoke to win it, the deciding goal to Peter Crouch for #101.
Wildcard’s Pick: 1-0 to Stoke
Manchester United vs Watford
Sunday 4.00am (NZT)
You know what I hate about Jose Mourinho these last few months? He’s got this thing where he walks over into the tunnel for half time while first half injury time is still going. The game is on and he’s walking away and at Old Trafford that’s a bit of a stroll and it’s an obvious stroll as well down the unsheltered sideline. Everyone can see you, it’s a demonstration, so what are you trying to achieve there other than telling your players and fans that you’ve given up on the last couple minutes. Ain’t this Man United who play to the whistle and all that?
Undefeated in four games, with consecutive wins over Arsenal and Burnley. Not a bad month of work for Watford, man. All the way up to tenth on the table. Tom Cleverley’s brought a little something extra to that midfield and M’Baye Niang doesn’t look half bad on the wing either. He’s a fun bloke, more than a shade of Balotelli about him, and a permanent move in the summer looks likely. They’re a dangerous team, this time a year ago they were slumping on their way to obscurity but Walter Mazzarri has consistently given them those little shots in the arm that they need along the course of this season. They beat MUFC earlier in the season too, don’t forget.
Here’s an incredibly unexpected stat: Man United have only won two games in which Marcus Rashford has started this season, both against Leicester City. That’s only counting Premier League but still… bloody hell. Meanwhile they’ve won all nine of Wayne Rooney’s last starts. Wazza’ll play his 550th league game next time he takes the park.
Wildcard’s Pick: 2-1 to Man Utd
Middlesbrough vs Everton
Sunday 4.00am (NZT)
2016-16 PL Top Goalscorers:
- Romelu Lukaku (EVE) – 16
- Alexis Sanchez (ARS) – 15
- Diego Costa (CHE) – 15
- Zlatan Ibrahimovic (MUN) – 15
- Jermain Defoe (SUN) – 14
- Harry Kane (TOT) – 14
There you go, Rommy. All the way to the top.
Hmm, Boro will offer more of a resistance than Bournemouth did but then Everton look pretty sharp at the moment. It’s been seven games since they last lost, only Man Untied and Spurs can top that active run. Coincidentally seven games is also how long it’s been since Middlesbrough last won. Cute how these things line up like that.
I think chucking Ramiro Funes Mori in at centre back has helped things, bringing a younger defender in alongside Ashley Williams. Plus he means they can go three at the back or four, with their fullbacks good and fast enough to play slightly further forward. Morgan Schneiderlin, Gareth Barry and James McCarthy make for a midfield that’ll offer heaps of protection and enough play to get the front fellas involved, very decent. Boro’s goal difference is their best trait right now. They could be in the relegation zone in a couple days if they don’t win this… and I don’t think they will.
Wildcard’s Pick: 2-1 to Everton
West Ham United vs West Bromwich Albion
Sunday 4.00am (NZT)
Wildcard’s Pick: 1-1
Sunderland vs Southampton
Sunday 4.00am (NZT)
JACK RODWELL FINALLY WON A GAME! His whole Sunderland career, he’d never been on the winning side of a game he’d started, three years, eight months, four weeks and two days since his first game and finally a victory. That’s 1368 days if you’re having trouble with the maths. His 39th game started, a full season of football even. Here’s the result progression:
LLDDLDDDLDLLLDLLLDLLDDLLDDDDLLDLLLDLLDW
Bless the man, he’s been through a lot. Although… he didn’t get to celebrate this one. Nope, Rodwell was watching at a distance because he’d been subbed off injured early in the second half. Granted Sunders were already 4-0 up against Palace… God were Palace awful. But shout out to Jermain Defoe because that one goal he scored on the turn… voila.
Southampton are batting on a sticky wicket too. Virgil Van Dijk is out for a couple of months and Jose Fonte has been sold. That’s their superb central defensive pairing gone. Maya Yoshida is an able deputy and they have a couple good youngsters – Jack Stephens has been filling in, the England U21 fella doing some decent stuff. But just in case they’ve also made a move for free agent defender Martín Cáceres, formerly of Juventus and Barcelona. So long as the Uruguayan gets a work permit. Decent enough move so long as his fitness and motivation haven’t faltered after a year out of the game. The Saints need something, they’ve lost six of seven in the PL and the one win was against Leicester City.
Wildcard’s Pick: 1-1
Liverpool vs Tottenham Hotspur
Sunday 6.30am (NZT)
God, things have gotten rotten in a hurry for Liverpool. Sadio Mane is back but the stench seems to have set in, they’re short on confidence and this is a confidence team. Jurgen Klopp is a confidence manager. To be honest, before the season there can’t have been too many people picking Liverpool to challenge for the title. They didn’t buy anyone spectacular, just some solid first teamers and while those guys, Mane, Wijnaldum and Matip in particular, have improved things, they don’t have the squad of an Arsenal or Man United… nor the first XI of Spurs, City or especially Chelsea.
Point being that they’re a team built to challenge top four and probably not much higher. Still, one win in ten games is not top four standard. This is a minor crisis, here are their last ten results, starting with the most recent:
- Hull City 2-0 Liverpool (PL)
- Liverpool 1-1 Chelsea (PL)
- Liverpool 1-2 Wolves (FA)
- Liverpool 0-1 Southampton (LC)
- Liverpool 2-3 Swansea (PL)
- Plymouth 0-1 Liverpool (FA)
- Man Utd 1-1 Liverpool (PL)
- Southampton 1-0 Liverpool (LC)
- Liverpool 0-0 Plymouth (FA)
- Sunderland 2-2 Liverpool (PL)
Kinda tragic, although on the positive side of things they’re playing against Spurs here and the one thing about Liverpool is that they rise to the occasion against the big fellas. They’ve beaten Arsenal, Chelsea and City while drawing twice with United as well as once with Spurs and again with Chelsea. That’s 13 points from seven games which is better than any other jokers, even Chelsea who lost a few ones early on before they turned into the unstoppable force of today. Meanwhile the four defeats that Liverpool have had in the league have come against Burnley, Bournemouth, Swansea and Hull. What the hell, aye?
Both teams have strong home records so good for Pool that they’re the hosts. Plus while these two teams have a lot of similarities in their recent seasons, it’s notable that Liverpool haven’t lost to Spurs in any competition since 2012, with six wins and three draws since then. The Reds are now in the danger zone where a defeat and they could slip to sixth (meaning that Man Utd might finally rise a place on the table – 15 games unbeaten and they’ve never left sixth place). Interesting, very interesting. I don’t think that Spurs are quite built to carve Liverpool up and I don’t think that the Tottenham defence is as compromised as some would suggest with their injuries. Dammit, this feels like a bloody draw.
Say look, it’s Adam Lallama!
Wildcard’s Pick: 1-1
Burnley vs Chelsea
Monday 2.30am (NZT)
Nine points clear with 14 games to play, Chelsea are now officially in the: ‘Theirs To Lose’ phase of the title challenge. There are no other distractions, just the FA Cup where they have a favourable draw away at Wolves, and of the top six they still have to play Man City at home, Man United away… and that’s it. So basically they can lose both of those games and still cruise home if they don’t drop points elsewhere, which they haven’t been doing anyway. It’s the secret of their success that they don’t slip up. Early in the season they drew with Swansea and lost to Liverpool and Arsenal. Since then they’ve lost to Spurs and drawn with Liverpool. That’s it. Two points dropped against teams outside the top six. Are Burnley gonna change that? Will Watford or Stoke or Bournemouth get anything done? Mate, even if they do then those dropped points will probably be offset by dropped points in other places by their rivals.
Man Management from Antonio Conte, Lesson #35:
Shouting. That’s the secret, folks.
Wildcard’s Pick: Chelsea 2-0, as always
Swansea City vs Leicester City
Monday 5.00am (NZT)
Two teams on the same number of points, one on the rise and one sinking quick. There’s a lot more to say about Leicester and they deserve their own column delving all into it. They’ll get one too, watch this space. In the meantime let’s breeze over things, like the fact that they haven’t scored a Premier League goal in all of January. Five games scoreless, it’s bloody pathetic really. There are rumours all over that the players are sick of Ranieri, who is definitely a peacetime general, but those players need to take a look in the mirror first coz they’re awful. Wes Morgan and Robert Huth were terrible against Man United. You can make strong clearances and heavy blocks and look good for 80 minutes but the stupid mistakes that you make mean those other efforts are worthless. They each played at such a high level last season. For older CBs, that was probably never repeatable but while Leicester got busy looking for a Kante replacement they overlooked the defence. Yeah… whoops.
The motivation isn’t there any longer for these players. Last year was a wave of destiny and without that they’re back to being the team they were the season before. The board has backed Claudio Ranieri, as they should, but the real riddle comes down to this: Do you sack the man who brought you the greatest achievement your club will ever have if it’ll keep you from getting relegated?
On one hand, yeah of course. Footy’s a business and it’s ruthless. Then again… Leicester winning the title was the antidote to the cynicism of the modern game, they mean more than that. They’re a beacon to the rest of footballing fandom, a living proof that romanticism still exists and miracles happen. If they were to sack Ranieri, it’d be a kick in the bollocks to everyone.
Guts to Swansea, so close to getting something off of Manchester City. They’re still far from decent but they’re good enough under Paul Clement to survive. For the first time since they first fell into the drop zone, you can say that about them.
Wildcard’s Pick: 1-0 to the Swans
Bournemouth vs Manchester City
Tuesday 9.00am (NZT)
The struggles are setting in for the Cherries and leaking six against Everton only highlights a defence that’s been playing poorly for ages… ever since Nathan Ake left one might say. That’s overlooking plenty as there have been other injuries and suspensions in there which haven’t helped. Still, 19 goals conceded in their last six games. Something’s gotta change, it ain’t too late to slip back into the relegation battle. Problem is it’s about to get worse before it gets better – can you imagine them beating Man City right now? Can you see them beating West Brom or Man United away? Those are their next three games.
They do close the season with a trip to Leicester though, imagine how important that one could end up being the way those two are playing these days. For now, six points is heaps at the bottom and that’s the difference between them and 18th. That could evaporate in a couple weeks though with the bottom four all having won in their last two games.
No, you don’t sell Sergio Aguero because somebody else has arrived and is very good. You don’t sell one of your very best players at the first possible sign of weakness. Absolutely trigger happy, that idea. That’s tabloid arsery. Ask Liverpool what depth means for a team. The only way you even begin considering a sale is if Aguero begins demanding one. Which… it sounds like he might soon. There’s reason to accept it if that all comes to pass because Aguero is older now, he’s still great but there’s bound to be a decline in the future. His worth now is as much as it’ll ever be again… though money doesn’t matter for City.
The real reason you’d let him go is out of loyalty, weird as that sounds. He’s done so much for this club that if he feels his career deserves another twist and the club no longer sees him as necessary then that’s when it becomes a situation. But if given the choice of having Sergio Aguero as a second striker or as a sub then Pep Guardiola will snap your arm off shaking that deal closed.
Wildcard’s Pick: City 3-1