The Wildcard’s Premier League Predictions - Week 29
Last Week: 1/5
Overall: 141/273
West Bromwich Albion vs Arsenal
Sunday 1.30am (NZT)
Haha, whaddaya know we all forgot about Arsenal for a second? All that madness last week with Alexis Sanchez and Bayern Munich and 10-2 and Arsene Wenger… this week it was a routine win against a lower league Lincoln side and we’re all talking about the Champions League and Jose Mourinho and Leicester and City and Antonio Conte and Eden Hazard.
Probably a nice thing for Mr Wenger to get that reprieve. Granted, a lot of that is on his shoulders for not giving a definitive on the contract situation - nobody knows what they’re all thinking there and it’s not exactly helping, especially when it feels more and more likely that Wenger will stay on. He might not, he might wanna move on but not make a big deal and that’s what all this is. Beats me, we can speculate but it’s all guesswork until we know for sure. Schrodinger’s Football Manager.
Tony Pulis, speaking this week: “A man of his esteem should be given the credence and respect he deserves. You don’t like to see any manager under that much pressure especially after what he's done at the club. It's for Arsenal to decide what to do. I don’t think it's for anyone else to decide Arsene's future. Over the past however many years, he's not only been in charge of a great football club, he's produced great sides. In that he's built a stadium second to none in the Premier League, he's built a training ground second to none in the Premier League, all within a budget that has kept Arsenal in the black. He's achieved remarkable things on the pitch and remarkable things off it.”
Huh. Are we… are we talking about the same Tony Pulis here? The man who once said that Arsene Wenger “moans like a drain”? The man that used to single out Wenger as an antithesis in his defence of that roughhouse Stoke team? They’re… what, friends now?
Arsenal never let the headlines escape for too long. That probably means another Granit Xhaka red card, another injury in the defence, another Wenger tantrum and another couple of dropped points.
Wildcard’s Pick: 1-1
Crystal Palace vs Watford
Sunday 4.00am (NZT)
Somewhere in here is an interesting narrative or rivalry or drama or anything at all really… I can’t think what it is though. God, not the most exciting game, is it? You can probably get both Big Sam and Wally Mazzarri to shake hands on a goalless draw already if you asked them. That might be illegal, though ‘illegal’ ain’t gonna bother Big Sam. He has ways and means.
Wildcard’s Pick: 0-0
Sunderland vs Burnley
Sunday 4.00am (NZT)
They may have been leading for a while there but a 2-1 defeat against Liverpool means that Burnley’s away record in the PL now reads:
14 G | 0 W | 2 D | 12 L | 9 GF | 30 GA | -21 GD | 2 PTS
Well, if they’re ever gonna win one then the bottom of the table team sounds like the opportunity. Actually they should have a couple more chances with Middlesbrough, Everton, Crystal Palace and Bournemouth remaining on the away schedule. They’ve already played Sunderland once at the Stadium of Light actually, a 0-0 draw in the FA Cup. For what that’s worth.
Sunderland are buggered, aye. Three tough games in a row against Southampton, Everton and Man City but in those they’ve been beaten by a combined score of 8-0. While the rest of the bottom clubs (except Middlesbrough) are getting desperate and picking up the odd win here or there, Sunderland are toiling away as badly as ever. Davie Moyes just doesn’t seem like the most inspiring chap.
Wildcard’s Pick: 1-1
Everton vs Hull City
Sunday 4.00am (NZT)
Oh yes, the Oumar Niasse Derby. Fresh off of a match-winning brace against Swansea and fresh off Everton’s best striker saying he’d rather play Champions League and win trophies than be an Everton lifer. Curious timing because after they beat West Brom there started these pundit chats like: ‘can Everton crack the top six?’ No, they can’t, and as close as they are right now that’s coz Arsenal and Man Utd have games in hand.
Still, this Lukaku thing seems legit. They offered him a five year deal on big wages (comparative for EFC) and he said no way, bro. It’s not just his agent talking, he’s said some words himself about ambition and the future. He’s worth too much to let that contract run down so if they don’t think they can retain him, it’s in everyone’s interests that he’s sold in the summer… and what does that mean? Here are my most probable scenarios:
Lukaku to Chelsea – Diego Costa will leave and his old club will have a ready-made spot for him. Reigning English champs, most likely, and recent Champions League prowess from both the cub and the manager. Already familiar with the stadium and facilities.
Lukaku to Man Utd – Jose likes a physical type up top, he could be the new Ibra is Zlatan moves on to wherever he might go. Would be reunited with Fellaini. Not ideal for Marcus Rashford but it’s the kind of deal Jose might make… even if he’s already sold Lukaku once before. The fit is good but the Champions League footy’s still a question mark.
Lukaku Stays at Everton – The club calls his bluff and promises big reinforcements in fellow creative players (better than Mirallas, pretty much). Their ambition matches his, he’s already comfortable and successful there. Pay rise. Will be bloody tough to challenge those top four spots though.
Lukaku to Real Madrid – Doesn’t he seem like a Real kind of player? In terms of current progression, I really do think in two years’ time he could be a better striker than Karim Benzema. Will never miss UCL but might not always play.
Lukaku to… France? – Well where else is there? Arsenal won’t pay that much, Spurs can’t pay that much, Liverpool are bound by rivalry and Man City already have Gabriel Jesus who they’re committed to. Outside of that the Italian clubs have no money (except Juventus who just broke the bank for Gonzalo Higuain), Bayern have Robert Lewandowski and Barcelona are stocked for good. Maybe Atletico Madrid, otherwise Paris Saint Germain. Or, like, Celtic as a backup if Champions League is really that crucial.
My bet is on Chelsea. Feel free to roll the dice for odds.
Wildcard’s Pick: Everton 2-0
Stoke City vs Chelsea
Sunday 4.00am (NZT)
The Amended Guide to Beating Chelsea
Edition #274, Editor: Jose Mourinho
- Pick a back four full of centrebacks
- Pick two more defenders to bring the width
- Effectively play then as a back six
- Man-mark Diego Costa with one CB
- Have the outside CBs track Hazard & Willian
- Foul, foul and foul again
- Get a key midfielder sent off
- Sub on Fellaini for your most creative player
- Play almost an hour with ten men but only use one more sub
- Lose 1-0
To be honest, Stoke can probably do that to the exact number if they want to. They have the players and the reputation. Although Mou’s plan fell to pieces when Andre Herrera got sent off, United were in that game up until that moment. Up until Eden Hazard put Chris Smalling in the spin cycle a few minutes earlier, maybe. Jeez, how good was Eden Hazard there? Got completely smashed in the Hack-A-Hazard strategy but continued to get back up and dominate. He was brilliant, barely missed a pass all game and looked a threat with every swivel of the hip. That’s one of the best couple of games I’ve ever seen him play and watching the cynical way Jose set up to combat that reminded me of back when Mourinho was talking him up as the third best player on the planet.
Speaking of Mourinho…
Ooh, shade. Normally I’d say the way the Chelsea fans treated Jose was pretty shameful but in this case it goes both ways so no dramas, just a whole lotta fun. That game was superbly entertaining and the match itself wasn’t even that great.
You know what else? It might have been close for 30 minutes, United might have even thought they were getting on top but Chelsea do that all the time and they don’t conceded and they find a way to win. Once more it happened here, in a massive game. They haven’t lost to Man United for 12 straight games now and they won’t lose to Stoke.
Wildcard’s Pick: 2-0 CFC
West Ham United vs Leicester City
Sunday 4.00am (NZT)
There is one English team remaining in the Champions League ahead of the quarter-final draw… and it’s the reigning Premier League champions. I mean, when you put it that way it makes perfect sense.
But then nothing about Leicester makes sense. They committed the atrocious profanity of sacking Claudio Ranieri and now they’re back to almost the team they were last season. You can’t even rule them out come the quarters because they’re the unexpected there, they’re the unknown. At least against Barca and Real you know what you’re up against. Gigi Buffon has already said he doesn’t want Juventus to pluck the Foxes from the fishbowl.
It felt sorta inevitable as well. I had the same feeling with Barcelona overturning that 4-0 defeat against PSG and although Leicester wasted some golden chances – looking at you Vards – they defended sharply and took the ones that mattered. Oh and Kasper Schmeichel saved a penalty. Absolute madness. Argh and another thing happened: Samir Nasri got sent off…
Samir Nasri: “For me, he is a cheat. Because if he was a foreign player, you, the English press, would say he is a cheat. They were winning 2-0; play the game like a man.”
Yeah, pretty much. Vardy has always been a bit of a prick, he was like that last season. Remember when he got racist at the casino? But he scored heaps of goals and has that relatable lower-league charm so he won every one over. Still got some mongrel to the lad though. Also, funny to see that his most valuable contribution, while he worked hard all game, was a fake-out headbutt and dive. It wasn’t his goals for damn sure. Meanwhile Riyad Mahrez was left on the bench and N’Golo Kante is out there gunning with Chelsea. Their three key players all struggling and yet they look great again. That ol’ Leicester spirit runs deeper than you think.
And for all the Richard III stuff last season, they’re now managed by a man named Shakespeare.
It’d make sense for a hangover bleeding into the weekend now. West Ham don’t much like their new ground but they’re getting better there and Leicester remain a team that ain’t that good on the road. The Hammers’ concern is that the Reid/Fonte partnership is yet to stick at all, conceding 13 goals in six games with no clean sheets. Only one win in there too (a 3-1 against Fonte’s old Southampton buddies). That’s not an easy thing to get right on the fly in the middle of the season and those two are good enough that it should come eventually (if not, the worry is that they’re a little too similar as players). Eh, I reckon they might win this one.
Wildcard’s Pick: 2-1 to West Ham
Bournemouth vs Swansea City
Sunday 6.30am (NZT)
Put it this way, if Swansea revert to the kind of defending they showed against Hull then they’ll lose to a team that missed two penalties last week and still score three. Defence, as Paul Clement rightly says (he is the manager after all), has been the foundation of their success since he took over. That and Fernando Llorente’s poaching. The Swans are not a team that can handle anything less than their best at the back.
Same for Bourney though, their defence is equally dodgy. They probably hate Antonio Conte right now after he took Nathan Ake away from them to fill in on the bench for Chelsea where he never plays. They definitely hate the FA for banning Tyrone Mings but that was more justified. Makes this one an odd little match-up now. Vulnerabilities abound and Swansea just took a huge backwards step in losing to Hull (while the Cherries went the other way by beating West Ham).
Wildcard’s Pick: 2-2
Middlesbrough vs Manchester United
Monday 1.00am (NZT)
I can understand a lot of the Pogba criticism. That doesn’t mean I agree with it. Here are my rebuttals, consider yourself armed:
- His finishing sucks but he’s not a striker and he creates more chances than any other player in that team.
- He literally does everything else. He can tackle, dribble, pass, shoot, hold off a defender, nutmeg a defender, chip a perfect pass 40 yards over the defence… he gets the ball and he has like 10 options available to him. That’s hard and he’s still a young player. N’Golo Kante knows his job is to pass. Pogba’s role is more entitle than that and he has to find the balance.
- He’s doing all this without having had a pre-season to work with. He’s making it up on the spot.
- Mourinho is playing him too much. Sometimes the dude just looks… not tired but lethargic. There’s a difference. I think that difference is a mental fatigue.
- Say what you will about dominating big games but Mourinho is the only one who is allowed to dominate big games in which Mourinho is involved. Look at the defence he picked against Chelsea and look how The Pog was left with only Rashford in front of him and only Fellaini beside him. You try get the best of Kante in those situations.
- His assists would be higher if his strikers/wingers were better at finishing. How many games have you seen where they boss the game and waste an Olympic swimming pool’s worth of chances to score only to draw 1-1? Yeah, way too often. This team doesn’t score a lot of goals.
- A transfer fee does not equal ability. It’s a complicated bit of maths based on contract availability, willingness to sell, potential, talent, potential talent, marketability, etc. None of that was in Man United’s favour when that deal was made.
- He’s there on a long-term contract. Don’t judge him on eight months.
Wildcard’s Pick: 1-0 to MUFC
Tottenham Hotspur vs Southampton
Sunday 3.15am (NZT)
The highlight of this contest oughta be seeing Virgil Van Dijk marking Harry Kane but… yeah, nah. Both out injured. Both out long term.
That’s a kick in the testicles for Spurs even if he is back before the season ends like they think he might be. The ground they could lose until then might even be enough to fall out of the top four. Now, that’d be drastic. Kane is as crucial as they come for Tottenham and he’s been scoring for fun lately. There is no top six standard striker in their midst beneath him, although hat-trick hero Son Heung-Min can kick a ball at false nine for sure. Likely their best bet; either that or roll with Dele Alli in the same role. That lad’s been on fire lately too and not just on the footy field.
Gotta throw some more love to the FA Cup, we all love an underdog but seeing four of the top five placed teams in England in the semis shows something even more important: this is a competition worth winning. With the upper echelon so tightly fought this season, and probably will be into the future, trophies are at a premium and as much as Chelsea wanna do the double (you’d chuck them in as faves right now for both), Arsenal, Spurs and Man City also know this is their last chance to win something this season.
Last FA Cup Victory:
- Arsenal – 2014-15
- Chelsea – 2011-12
- Man City – 2010-11
- Tottenham – 1990-91
Wildcard’s Pick: 1-0 to Spurs
Manchester City vs Liverpool
Monday 5.30am (NZT)
Yeah but this is City, nothing all that shocking there. Also that Monaco team is outstanding and when all those young players are being snapped up by rich, successful teams in a few months we’re gonna realise how stacked they are. And in 5-10 years we’ll look back and they’ll be a quiz question. Honestly, that team is gonna threaten whoever they draw in the quarters.
Although at the same time City bottled it after getting the first leg victory. Being short on defenders, that’s also not surprising… only disappointing. Pep needs a midfield before he can do anything with this lot and you can expect a fair bit of squad turnover again in a few months. They need it. As I saw tweeted but can’t find the tweet of to use here, Pep’s stuck using Arsene Wenger’s rubbish fullbacks from ages ago (harsh, they’re not that bad, but also point taken). The attacking dudes are magnificent, what they need now is any kind of possession-heavy midfield and they’ll be scary.
Liverpool are the same, they’ve got the makings of a fine squad but this is too soon for them. I know that footy is supposed to be fast-paced and instantly gratifying in the modern era but I appreciate the fact that City and Pool are both taking their time with the squad overhauls. You’ve gotta do it over a few seasons or else it’s all chaos.
So what does that mean for this Match of the Day classic? It means that Liverpool are bound to get up for it being as good as they are against top sides. It also means that City might dread this a little given the emotional weight of that Monaco defeat. Especially against a team that’s beaten them the last four times they’ve met in the league.
The signs are pointing towards Liverpool again, aren’t they?
Wildcard’s Pick: Liverpool 2-1