The Wildcard’s Premier League Predictions - Week 31
Last Week: 3/5
Overall: 117/293
Everton vs Arsenal
1.45am Sunday (NZT)
Oh Arsenal. Oh Arsenal, Arsenal, Arsenal. Oh Arsene. Oh Arsene, Arsene, Arsene.
Hey the good news is that now they can focus on making sure they finish third or fourth in the Premier League… although let’s not bank on them not blowing that. I’d expect them to scrap through there but since beating Leicester City in the game that seemed to reinvigorate their title hopes, these are their results:
- D 0-0 vs Hull (FAC)
- L 0-2 vs Barcelona (UCL)
- L 2-3 at Man Utd (EPL)
- L 1-2 vs Swansea (EPL)
- D 2-2 at Spurs (EPL)
- W 4-0 at Hull (FAC)
- L 1-2 vs Watford (FAC)
- L 1-3 at Barcelona (UCL)
A single win in eight games and it was a replay against a second division team. That’s fewer wins than competitions that they’ve been knocked out of in that time. Hull, Man Utd and Swansea were all below full strength. That is so far from acceptable that it’s insane.
Sacking Wenger is not the answer, nor is it even a possibility. What they need to do first is maybe sack the physio because the running joke of Arsenal injuries is getting ridiculous and probably has a lot to do with why they always fade late in the season than anything else. Can Alexis Sanchez and Mesut Ozil play together at their best? Of course they can, that’s a poor excuse. Things have gotten worse since Santi Cazorla was injured and not Aaron Ramsey, not Mathieu Flamini (Ha!), not Francis Coquelin have been able to fill in. I like Mohamed Elneny but he’s fresh to the club. Ramsey is attacking with no concept of defence. Coquelin is all defence with no concept of attack. Flamini… well he’s barely even a footballer. Subbed off before half time against Barcelona, already on a yellow card and the only surprise was that he started in the first place – except who else was there?
I liked the way Arsenal played Barcelona in that second leg. Danny Welbeck was a good choice, making runs across and behind the defence which created room for Ozil to work in. There was some superb passing – good quick moves, triangles and stuff. The problem was that they had 20 shots and only 3 were on target. Also the problem was that Flamini had to play. Picking Welbeck in place of Giroud/Walcott and picking Gabriel in place of Mertesacker… both great selections by Wenger. Picking 19 year old Alex Iwobi in his first Champions League start (away at the Nou Camp with a 2-0 deficit) was not so smart. As for his dive, the clipping of his own heels was creative, I’ll give him that. A more comfortable player takes that towards goal and gets a shot off though. I’m sick of players turning down shot attempts to tumble to the ground, if it was a foul then the ref should bring it back if your attempt is obstructed anyway. If anything it looks better if you try to stay on your feet, it takes out the diving option.
Right now. Everton at home, that’s a tricky one as over their 15 home league games this season they’ve won 4 – that’s bad enough to leave them in 17th (ahead of Sunderland only on goal difference). Meanwhile on the road they’ve only lost once and would be sixth on the table – possibly third if they win the two games they’ve played fewer than the five teams above them. Theirs are some difficult fans to please, although the Goodison faithful have seen Cup wins over Man City and Chelsea. Oh, and that one away game they’ve lost? 2-1 to Arsenal.
I’m betting on a hangover from their respective last fixtures. Romelu Lukaku is unstoppable when he plays like he did against Chelsea, Arsenal are a tad directionless up the top. Argh, do I give them a draw? Umm… nah.
Wildcard’s Pick: 2-1 Everton
Crystal Palace vs Leicester City
4.00am Sunday
Gary Lineker wrote a thing about Leicester for the Guardian this week (I’ve already read it, look it up ya’selves!) in which he said very little of any pertinence about the team other than that it’s amazing and unprecedented what they’re doing. Good on ya Gary, you’re a champion. But he did expose me to this one conspiracy theory as to why the Foxes are suddenly the best team in England. I love conspiracy theories. Here it is in all its glory:
A King's Bones and the Foxes Fortunes...
Okay, first off you have to transport back in time to 1485 when Richard III of England was killed in battle at Bosworth Field. Shakespeare wrote a play about it. If you’ve ever heard the phrase “A horse, a horse! A kingdom for my horse!”, that’s from that play. He was the first king to die in battle since Harold II at the Battle of Hastings in 1066 and the last since.
For more than five hundred years his remains were considered lost but in 2012 there was an excavation and his bones were discovered beneath a council car park in Leicester. On the 26th of March 2015, those bones were reburied in Leicester Cathedral… less than a mile from the King Power stadium.
Their following game was a 2-1 win over West Ham and they went on to win seven of their last nine games (with a draw in there) to mystically avoid relegation. They have won 18 of 30 with only three losses this season. No team can match that.
Coincidence? I think not.
And here’s that Shinji Okazaki goal in all its glory:
It’s telling of a top team that when they need to squeeze out these tough results (and Ranieri has said that at this stage it’s all about results, not performances), they’ve been able to get them courtesy of all these different names. 10 points in four games since the loss to Arsenal and they’ve gotten goals from Okazaki, Riyad Mahrez, Andy King, an own goal deflected from a Danny Drinkwater shot and Leo Ulloa. Not to mention a few crucial Robert Huth goals before that. A variety of players all doing what they can to step up when the team needs it. That’s incredible.
Meanwhile you know how I was slamming Everton’s home form before? Well Palace have lost five home games in a row and their 14 home points are better only than the comically abysmal Aston Villa. Not only do they not win at home, though, but they don’t win at all anymore except for in the FA Cup. They should be fine since the teams below them are terrible but in 15th place with 33 points, they really need a couple more wins to exhale and they don’t look like they’re coming any time soon. 12 league games without a win, what the hell, Pards?
I will say that I expect Palace to randomly win those two or so games all of a sudden when nobody expects it. And when it happens it will be swift and unpredictable.
Wildcard’s Pick: 1-0 Leicester
Chelsea vs West Ham United
4.00am Sunday
Start of the season, West Ham were saying “just don’t get relegated, we can’t afford it” and now they’re doing all they can to get into Europe and maybe add a few more midweek revenues to the stadium loan fund. Funny how dramatically times change, and we don’t even need to get into what a difference those months have made for Chelsea.
In fact I don’t wanna talk about Chelsea at all. They bore me. Instead I wanna remind you that Diego Costa is suspended and Eden Hazard injured and then leave you with this (make sure the sound's turned up):
Wildcard’s Pick: 1-1
West Bromwich Albion vs Norwich City
4.00am Sunday
Oh boy. No. You are not gonna get me watching this one. A brief highlight package in the morning for professional purposes mainly but nothing more. Look, Norwich got a very impressive scoreless draw against City. Timm Klose was magnificent. But I really don’t see too many goals in them. With ten games now since their last Premier League win I can’t imagine there’s too much belief left that they can survive into another season at the top. Which is about what I say every week about them, I’m sorry for not being better at writing about Norwich. But, come one, they’re getting relegated.
Wildcard’s Pick: 1-0 WBA
Watford vs Stoke City
4.00am Sunday
Make that FA Cup semi-finalists Watford. And League Cup semi-finalists Stoke City for that matter. One of those things is better than the other, to be fair. This is Watford’s best FA Cup run since 2006-07 and they have a great chance against Crystal Palace to make their first final since 1984, when they lost 2-0 to Everton courtesy of goals to Graeme Sharp and Andy Gray.
Is that a distraction? It shouldn’t be, they don’t play that game for like a month and if anything it’s a welcome boost, to beat Arsenal during what’s been a tough spell for the Watters. The thing is though, it hasn’t been that bad, just a tough stretch of games. Scoreless draws with Chelsea and Bournemouth, a win over Palace and 1-0 losses to Spurs, United and Leicester. The worry for them is that Odion Ighalo, such a source of goals in the first half of the season, has scored just once since January ended. He broke a seven game dry spell with a goal against Arsenal, so that’s positive, though some of the chances he’d been wasting were ones he was scoring three months ago. Especially in the Man United game.
Here’s a kicker: Stoke are only eight points off fourth place. Most of the teams they have to pass to get there have a game in hand (Liverpool have two) but for comparison, Man City are 12 points off first place and Newcastle are nine points off sixteenth. There’s a fair bit of shuffling to come in the table and those teams with games in hand, those games are gonna be crammed in midweeks. Hardly bankers, those.
But I’m taking Watford here. Troy Deeney with a goal and one to a winger or something. I’d like to see more Mario Suarez too, if he starts then his battle with Giannelli Imbula will be a cracker. Two January transfers, two formerly well-rated dudes who fell off the pace at their last clubs. A chip on the shoulder seems to help in English footy.
Wildcard’s Pick: 2-1 Watford
Swansea City vs Aston Villa
6.30am Sunday
Jeez, another one. My grandad has this theory with cards that if you have a rubbish hand then someone else probably has a great one. Similar goes for footy fixtures and if you get a Manchester, East London and Tyneside derby all in one week then there are bound to be a couple stinkers elsewhere.
If you do have to watch this (and I’m assuming some will feel obliged because for some reason this has gotten the late kickoff – dammit why can’t they push it for CHE-WHU or something?) then let your strained focus lie on the Ayew brothers. It’s not too often a pair of bros get to go head to head at this level.
Most Combined EPL Games between Brothers:
- Gary & Phil Neville – 903
- Rio & Anton Ferdinand – 721
- Kolo & Yaya Toure – 538
- Kieron & Nathan Dyer – 367
- Shola & Sammy Ameobi – 352
I honest to God only just found out that Nathan Dyer is Kieron Dyer’s little brother.
Wildcard’s Pick: 2-0 Swansea
Newcastle United vs Sunderland
2.30am Monday
It’s a travesty that we’re either being deprived of Sam Allardyce or Rafa Benitez in the Premier League next season. At the time Big Sam took over I was certain Sunderland were going down. He’s straightened things up but not to the point where they’re likely to hold off their local rivals, supposing that Rafa has a few tricks up his sleeve.
They showed signs against Leicester. Newcastle were legitimately the better team for the entire second half and the only reason they didn’t score appeared to be a shortage of confidence and a bit of wastefulness. You’ve gotta think that playing for a guy who last managed Cristiano Ronaldo and Real Madrid is as inspiring a manager as you can hope for in Newcastle’s position, if the players can’t rise for that then they won’t for anyone. Hey and Rafa’s a cup manager. Target a few key games (so… all the home ones) and go all out like they’re semi-finals. There ya go. Bloody Newcastle, they’re absolutely spoiled to be as dumb and pointless as they’ve been all season and get the sacked Real manager with two months to play. Ridiculous.
It’s a late power play from Mike Ashley and it’s also a bit of synchronicity because the last four Sunderland managers – including Sam Allardyce with his 3-0 win in October – have won their second game in charge and all four have been against Newcastle. What a way to turn the tables, Rafa’s second game in charge and it’s against Sunderland. It’s gotta be.
This game is enormous. Loser drops odds on relegation. Also it’s a derby. We’re officially in the time of the season when the bottom quarter of the table becomes immensely watchable again.
Wildcard’s Pick: 4-3 Newcastle, because of course.
Southampton vs Liverpool
2.30am Monday
Once upon a time (as in: while Brendan was still there), this was a clash between either Liverpool and their reserves or Southampton and their reserves – depending on your affiliations. Given where we are now with those guys, I’ll take the Southampton Reserves side, but then Adam Lallana and Nathaniel Clyne are having pretty decent seasons.
Liverpool are fairly distracted by the Europa League game against Man United (I’m writing this Thursday morn, no spoilers please) so whichever way that goes, you can expect a few tired bodies down on the South Coast.
Good news for the Saints, Sadio Mane is free to play after his bollocks red card vs Stoke was overturned. Southampton have lost four and drawn one against Pool since the exodus began (Adam Lallana, Dejan Lovren and Rickie Lambert in 2014, followed this season by Nathaniel Clyne). Last time they played was Divock Origi’s official unflopping, a 6-1 League Cup win – which goes to show how ridiculous it is to label players a flop before they’ve even played for their new team. If they’re under 25 then you have to give them at least a couple seasons before you write them off, look how long it took 29 year old Jamie Vardy to get there. At this point, he’s overrated now. Good for him.
Anyway, that all hardly fills me with confidence for Southampton’s chances and yet I have an inkling. An itch in my footballing soul that needs scratching. Maybe it’s just Virgil Van Dijk’s hair but I like the look of Southampton. Grazzy Pelle finally scored too, though I’d sooner back them with Charlie Austin, tbh. Not a huge Pelle fan, the dude can’t shoot straight. As for Shane Long, well I think we know not to expect too much from Irish players this soon after St Patrick’s Day. (Is that racist?)
Wildcard’s Pick: *deep breath now* … 1-0 Saints
Manchester City vs Manchester United
5.00am Monday
City, aye? The last English team left in the Champions League. Some absolute morons are criticising them for their drab 0-0 draw at home in the second leg but, like, they did the hard work in the away game. For God’s sake, they made it through and that’s never a bad thing. And I fully now expect them to go all in on the next round, regardless of who they get. Can they win it? Maybe. I mean, it ain’t impossible until they’re kicked out. There’s a lack of belief among most Premier League fans though, as far as European competition goes. They’re all worried about the coefficients (those magical numbers!) but that’s all missing the point that the reason English teams aren’t doing well in Europe is that they aren’t very good. Compared to the best teams out there, they just aren’t. Liverpool and Manchester United ended up in the Europas, Chelsea out in the UCL first knockouts – those are the teams with a history of success in those comps. Arsenal and Man City there’s a feeling that they’re too weak or fragile to properly compete. With the Gunners that is probably the case. With City… eh, they’ve got more to show, but beating Barcelona takes both technical and tactical brilliance and we’re yet to see both from City this season. All things considered… they should be ten points clear about now. There’s a reason that Leicester and Spurs are top of the table and not competing in the Champions League and that is because none of the traditional top teams are anywhere near where they want to be.
What a massive week for Manchester United. On the 18th they play Liverpool, trailing 2-0 but playing at home. That could be their best chance of Champions League footy slipping away. Three days later a Manchester derby away from home (but not very far away from home) where they have a desperate chance to slip the fourth placed team a big banana peel under their feet and officially re-open the battle for fourth (which with Juventus getting knocked out of the Champs Lge is definitely gonna mean Champions League – unless a strange set of circumstances occur in which both Liverpool (/Spurs/MUFC) and City win the Europas & Champs Lge and neither finishes in the top four). So, yeah, this game is very important and will take even more relevance if they do indeed get eliminated from Europe. But then a further two days later there’s the Reds’ FA Cup rematch with West Ham. Arsenal went and got kicked out of everything (bar top four in the PL) within a few days. United dodged that initially with Martial’s goal against WHU but there’s a very real chance they don’t escape the second time. The last Cup game at Upton Park, after all… (and a third game in five days).
Ryan Giggs: "If I was playing, I'd be looking forward to this week. Two brilliant games -- Liverpool at home and then City away.”
Easy for you to say, champ. Get these players up for it and I’ll offer to do some terrible things to keep Jose Mourinho from taking that manager’s job from ya, Giggsy. Actually, I’m ready to do that already so no big promise.
City can still salvage a title run with a good win here but they’ll have to do it without Vincent Kompany, who was big last time they played out a 0-0. Otamendi’s a shot though. As for United’s injuries, the list is lessening but none of them are all that crucial. Yay, Antonio Valencia’s good for the bench. No big difference. If Marouane Fellaini could perhaps not play, that’d be cool. He is the anti-footballer.
It’d be easy to write United off on their lack of inspiration but they’re actually quite decent against the top teams. It’s losses to Swansea, Bournemouth, West Brom, Norwich and Sunderland that are costing them. Add 10-15 points to their season and they’re up there with Spurs and Leicester. The problem is that neither City nor United feel like they can build up any momentum.
Wildcard’s Pick: 1-1
Tottenham Hotspur vs Bournemouth
5.00am Monday
The most incredible stat I read all week is that if you take the Premier League table from the start of December then Bournemouth would be in third place.
Eddie Howe’s done an amazing job with them and he’s shown a lot of guts in not doing the usual thing by bringing in a bunch of new players and adopting a more conservative style. Nah, man, Eddie’s stuck to his guns and it took a while for his players to adapt to the top level but they’ve been wonderful since. Third place, wow. Their season’s top scorer is still Callum Wilson and he hasn’t played a game since September.
Notice Man United aren’t on that table, they’ve only 19 points – although it’s all a bit skewed by the games in hand. Other notes: Everton are 15th, Crystal Palace are second to last, Chelsea’s resurgence shows prettily (but would more so if you brought the dates forward) and you can see the stutters of the League Cup finalists in ninth and tenth – although they have an extra game there to play. Aston Villa are still last.
If Spurs win all of their remaining games, I’m confident they’ll finish ahead of Leicester. Five points is hardly insurmountable, especially since the Foxes have been scraping by lately. Pochettino’s been doing very clever things by putting the emotional pressure all on the leaders. I think they do for Bournemouth here in a close but comfortable one. Based on the team they picked – and they result they got – against Dortmund last time, they’ll probably write that off and rest the men that matter.
Sidenote: Harry Kane has drawn level with Jamie Vardy in the Golden Boot stakes. Romelu Lukaku is one behind them. Sergio Aguero is fit and in range too, same for Riyad Mahrez. These players care about this, make no mistake. Yet another little thread to follow to the conclusion.
- Harry Kane – 19
- Jamie Vardy – 19
- Romelu Lukaku – 18
- Sergio Aguero – 16
- Riyad Mahrez – 15
Wildcard’s Pick: Spurs 2-0