The Wildcard’s Premier League Predictions - Week 5

Last Week: 5/10

Overall: 21/40

 

Chelsea vs Liverpool

Saturday 7.00am (NZT)

FRIIIIDAY NIIIIIIGHT FOOOTBAAAAAALL! Yo, the fans in England can moan about late trains home and all that but over here on the other side of the world our public transport system is crappy and watching football first thing on a Saturday morn is awesome.

Especially so when it’s two teams who have contributed so many great games in the past and this one has a whole new flavour because it's Conte vs Klopp and it’s Hazard vs Firmino, each playing wonderfully and all that. Diego Costa getting niggly with them and Adam Lallana doing that weird thing where his shots go on target with some power. Could be a great game, especially with the Friday Night factor taking everyone out of their comfort zone just a little.

Nice to see that there’s still an element of Jose about Chelsea these days:

My favourite bit: “You could be sat on the moon, on the top of the stand, anywhere…”

Big difference there, lad. It probably was a foul, by the way. Still sloppy defending though.

A lot has changed over this time but the last ten matches between the teams have yielded only one Liverpool win. It did come last season though and they haven’t lost in the last three. I’m gonna suggest that changes. I could easily be wrong because Liverpool are one team out there who could beat any Premier League team on their day but they do struggle against organised defences and Antonio Conte is Italian after all. Hazard running at that defence is trouble, as is Costa lurking around the six yard box feeding on missed clearances. And N’Golo Kante is going to boss the middle of the park you can bet on that. Should be goals for both teams though.

Hey and if there’s a Chelsea fan out there not following Michy Batshuayi on twitter yet then get the hell onto it, mate. That dude has a sense of humour. I’ll bet John Terry loves him.

Wildcard’s Pick: 2-1 Chelsea

Hull City vs Arsenal

Sunday 2.00am (NZT)

So hands up who had Mike Phelan winning Manager of the Month for August? Liar, he wasn’t even a manager at all a couple weeks before the season. Nor is he technically a full-time one now, still just a caretaker. But after those first two wins, he’s seen his side beaten in a gutsy clash by Man United and then draw at Burnley. Six points from two, one from two following that. Still good performances, but you’re likely to see this trend continue, I reckon. That slim squad can fight as hard as they possibly can but they’re gonna tire doing so – a lot quicker than most other teams. Their next three league games are against Arsenal, Liverpool and Chelsea too so expect a tumble down the table somewhat.

Hopefully the events of the last few weeks have soothed a few scorned Gunners fans too. Boohoo they lost to Liverpool in the first game – they had half their defence out injured, take Stones and Kompany out of City and they’ll have trouble against Liverpool as well. But two wins in a row and a Champions League draw in Paris against PSG are all commendable results. Alexis Sanchez is perfectly fine playing through the middle. Arsene Wenger has bought players. Good ones too. There’s nothing more they could be doing so don’t get sucked up into the drama vortex. I enjoy a watch of those Arsenal Fan TV lads as much as anyone but just remember that those guys all get free tickets to games for what they do. They’re not plucked off the street, they’re cultivated talent. The more hyped they get the more views their vids get, they’re playing it up – that ain’t reality.

David Ospina was brilliant against PSG – he earned that point for them. I wonder what he’d have to do to challenge Petr Cech’s place in the PL team? To be fair, a keeper like Cech offers so much in terms of leadership and guidance even if he isn’t making some of those same saves. Their defence has always needed that element to it. Shouldn’t be a problem against Hull, picking a close one after 45 which Arsenal then cruise away with by 90.

By the way, headline of the week goes to Football365 with this beaut:

“Wenger gets away with merde in France”

Don’t agree with the sentiment but I love the pun. Xhaka will be starting over Coquelin eventually, but he’s new to the club and Henrikh Mkhitaryan can tell you that it isn’t a quick transition for every player. Some of them, sure. But plenty more you don’t get your money’s worth for a month or two – some not even until the next season (I have a feeling Vincent Janssen at Spurs is one of those – missing out on that notoriously harsh preseason training looks like it might have affected him girth-wise).

Wildcard’s Pick: Gunners 2-0

Manchester City vs Bournemouth

Sunday 2.00am (NZT)

Goddammit can people shut up about Claudio Bravo already? It took one mistake on debut (in a massively high profile game – no pressure) and already he’s being written off by the dumbasses in the English footy media. One mistake, that’s all there was. I don’t even think that supposed foul on Rooney was worth anything, I thought that was the right no-call – though naturally Jose Mourinho disagrees with me. Which is fine because I disagree with him about his team selection in the Manchester Derby. I wanted Lingard in there but he and Mkhitaryan both was too much risk – neither was fully fit.

Anyway I digress. Every time Bravo got the ball at his feet in the second half, the United fans jeered to put pressure on him. This is such a typical anglofied way of treating goalies. The same thing happens in New Zealand and Australia by the way. It’s assumed as soon as the ball gets to their feet, that everyone should panic. What’s this joker doing tryna play footy with the rest of us? This is why Joe Hart got the flick. It’s such a ridiculous and antiquated way of thinking, like just do your one job and all that. Nah, if the keeper can play like Bravo then he’s holding down that entire final third. Your defence can push further up the field and the whole team can press higher up. The English instinct is to assume Bravo is taking a massive risk when he makes a pass that literally anybody else on the team would be expected to make with their eyes shut. It’s not a risk for him, it’s just football.

Yeah, he did cock up that cross for Zlatan’s goal but John Stones wasn’t exactly decisive himself. If that were Hart and Kompany, that’d be an issue. But it was two players playing together for the very first time. It’ll be fine. In fact John Stones is a great example of why Bravo has nothing to worry about. Two months ago people thought he was a loose cannon at the back. Nope, he was just playing for Roberto Martinez is all.

Harry Arter: “I get a little bit of stick from the lads when we are signing players for millions and there is me priced at £4,000. But for every player there is a different story and I’m really proud of how I’ve got to where I am. It’s been a lot of hard work and continues to be. I’d rather keep the £4,000 tag quiet and maybe add a few extra noughts on the end.”

I really loved that quote from the Bournemouth midfielder. It reminds you how far this club has come in a relatively short amount of time. And also why they won’t be getting anything from this game. City are on the verge of five straight wins to start the season in consecutive years. Only Chelsea has ever done that before.

Wildcard’s Pick: Man City 4-1

West Bromwich Albion vs West Ham United

Sunday 2.00am (NZT)

*gasp*

This is what we were missing without Dimitri Payet. I know the Hammers bottled it in the end that game but for this one moment we saw something sublime. It’s footballing pornography. That goal gave me a raboner.

I, err… I’ll be back, I have to go, ah, clean up.

On that note, also enjoy the always delightful Chris Kamara not knowing what a rabona is:

Wildcard’s Pick: 1-1

Leicester City vs Burnley

Sunday 2.00am (NZT)

Pop Quiz time: Name the ten English clubs to have played Champions League footy. (Don’t scroll down if you don’t wanna cheat).

Times up. The answers:

  • Manchester United
  • Chelsea
  • Manchester City
  • Arsenal
  • Tottenham
  • Liverpool
  • Leeds
  • Newcastle
  • Blackburn
  • Leicester City

Not even lying, I got ten outta ten on that sucker. The idea that Leeds, Newcastle and Blackburn all once played on the highest stage is a little baffling though.

A run in Europe will probably cost the Foxes on domestic soil but man it’d be worth it. And I think it can happen too – if anything their particular brand of counter attacking footy is even more suited to playing in the continental stuff where teams can be pretty cautious, the kind of cautious that leads to silly mistakes like the ones they drew outta Club Brugge. What a great way to go in their first ever UCL game, and the kind of result that buries the disappointment of the Liverpool game (there’s still an N’Golo Kante sized hole in that midfield and it’s gonna be an issue – might have to switch to three in the mid).

A lot better than this lad managed after winning his first Old Firm derby.

The hilarious thing is that one of those is a real quote!

Wildcard’s Pick: Leicester 2-1

Everton vs Middlesbrough

Sunday 4.30am (NZT)

Yeah, alright then Everton. Sitting all the way up the table like that. You cannot say Ronald Koeman doesn’t start with a splash, that’s four games unbeaten so far, three of them wins after a draw with Spurs. His Southampton reign began with a defeat to Liverpool at Anfield (Dan Sturridge with the winner in the 79th) and he then went unbeaten in the next five, dropped a game 1-0 to Spurs and won four more on the trot – including 8-0 over Sunderland.

Romelu Lukaku is the difference maker. He’s surrounded by a lot of good player, many of them not exactly meeting their potential under Martinez, but if he’s playing like he did against Sunderland then the ceiling is very high for Everton.

Ronald Koeman: “We need to fight for European football. The players showed the level they can be at and that was in the second half. They are not stupid. They know how they can perform.”

It’s funny right? Koeman comes in and starts building from the back like he did at Southampton (signing Stekelenburg and Williams, as well as Gueye to shield them) and suddenly the players in front them are playing more consistently too. It doesn’t always have to be rocket science. Well, except for Ross Barkley but he’ll get there. His roaming role under Martinez isn’t really there under Koeman so he’ll have to adapt but he has all the skills to do that.

I think I said last week that Everton had a crappy deadline day, which was true and I stand by that, however overall they did superb work in the transfer window. John Stones was always gonna leave so no worries there. Yet they’ve still strengthened in more or less every area. Can’t argue with that.

Plus, plus, PLUS… they donated £200k to the family of a young Sunderland mascot last week to help the kid pay for his cancer treatment. That is the classiest of classy moves. Makes you wonder why footy clubs can’t give back more often with all these record profits but that takes nothing away from this gesture.

Finally, shout out to Gareth Barry who’ll make his 600th Premier League appearance if he gets on the park in this game.

MOST PL APPS:

  1. Ryan Giggs – 632
  2. Frank Lampard – 609
  3. Gareth Barry – 599
  4. David James – 572
  5. Gary Speed – 535
  6. Emile Heskey – 516
  7. Mark Schwarzer – 514
  8. Jamie Carragher – 508
  9. Phil Neville – 505
  10. Rio Ferdinand – 504

Boro will be more solid than Sunderland, you won’t see any three goals in eleven minute periods here. They’ve also had a fairly easy start to life in the top flight with games against Stoke, Sunderland West Brom and Crystal Palace so far. Could be a difficult step up. Then again, there’s a lot to like about Boro…

Wildcard’s Pick: 1-1

Watford vs Manchester United

Sunday 11.00pm (NZT)

Jose Mourinho: “I didn’t [make a] change after 20 minutes because I don’t want to destroy the players. I didn’t want to make three changes at half-time but if there were a free number of changes and changes during the first half were normal, I would have done it after 20 minutes.”

Sure, Jose held himself back to spare the feelings of a player or two. That sounds exactly like him.

New Nick Cave and the Bad Seeds album out now, mate. Check that bugger out and be ready to confront some genuine darkness.

Wildcard’s Pick: MUFC 2-1

Crystal Palace vs Stoke City

Monday 1.15am (NZT)

I didn’t even notice that Palace had signed Christian Benteke’s brother until he got named in the team for the Boro game. And once I got thinking about it… something smelt fishy.

Joran Benteke scored twice in 21 games for Zulte Waregem in Belgium. He’s 21 and they got him for peanuts. Christian Benteke just signed for a club record £27m, a fee subject to rise. What do you reckon the chances were that signing his brother had a little something to do with signing him in the first place?

Alan Pardew on Jordan Benteke: “He is a young striker with natural talent, and they are not easy to find. This one was because of Christian, really. He highlighted him to us. We checked him out and liked the look of him. It was not a big fee so he comes here under no pressure. He is not up to his brother’s level yet, he would readily admit that, because Christian is a top-line player. But Jonathan is very enthusiastic and has settled in very well. Hopefully, he might surprise one or two.”

Yeah, that sounds like maybe something the agent snuck into the deal to me.

Wildcard’s Pick: 0-0

Southampton vs Swansea City

Monday 1.15am (NZT)

Something is a little wrong when Southampton cannot keep a clean sheet. Without a win in four league games so far with six goals conceded, that makes it 16 games in a row without blanking their opponent. That’s mental because they kept 15 clean sheets in the 2013-14 season and another 15 in 2014-15. Hell, they kept 12 of them in 2015-16 until this barren run kicked in. Obviously blokes like Nathaniel Clyne, Dejan Lovren and Toby Alderweireld have left in that time but Virgil Van Dijk and Jose Fonte should be a standout combo.

The problem then? Well they’ve also lost Victor Wanyama a year after losing Morgan Schneiderlin. They have a heap of good midfielders but nobody who is doing the sweeping up in front of the defence that other duo used to do. Even when Wanyama’s form was all over the place last year, he still worked damn hard and threw himself around.

  • Victor Wanyama – 1.88m & 76kg
  • Morgan Schneiderlin – 1.85cm & 75kg
  • Steven Davis – 1.73m & 72kg
  • Oriol Romeu – 1.82m & 79kg
  • Pierre-Emile Højbjerg – 1.85m & 81kg
  • Jordy Clasie – 1.69m & 68kg

Kinda interesting that. I’m going on record as saying that Wanyama is definitely a bit heavier than recorded there but whatever. Clasie is a midget, Davis is a bit bigger but still gives up size to Wanyama/Schneiders. Romeu is a fairly chunky lad and he’s slowly establishing himself there while Hojberg is fresh on the scene. Again, it takes time for new players to settle in and for teammates to figure out how to play alongside them best. Romeu is the man who’s mostly been tasked with the role in front of the back four. Just like that other pair, he likes a tackle so keep an eye out.

To be fair to the Saints, they’ve been very unlucky not to have gotten more from their games so far – particularly the Arsenal one. This should be a simpler task and wouldn’t you know it but the last team that Southampton kept a clean sheet against? Yeah, it was Swansea. Shane Long scored the winner that day and it made for six straight clean sheets in the Premier League. That was in Jan-Feb 2016. Presumably Swansea aren’t about to get gift goals like they did against Chelsea.

Wildcard’s Pick: Southampton 2-0

Tottenham Hotspur vs Sunderland

Monday 3.30am (NZT)

It’s at times like this when you remember just how young and inexperienced Harry Kane is. For a guy that’s expected to lead the line, that matters. Marcus Rashford or Kelechi Iheanacho have the freedom of Zlatan and Sergio but Kanos is all on his own and for a dude who needs his confidence right up there, that means he’s prone to some sloppy stretches. I wonder if he one day (God forbid) inherits Wayne Rooney’s title as the England player who no matter what he does, at least 50% of people will think he was useless.

Last season Kane started every game scoring 25 goals and shooting 4.2 time per match. This season he has one goal and it was a slimy tap in and in four games he is averaging 2.3 shots. It’s a small sample size I know but that is a significant drop off. With the glut of attacking mids around him, it’s possible that they’re not getting him the ball as much, though he’s also looked slightly off his game. Against Monaco he drifted into a great position to equalise deep into the second half and his first touch to make room for the shot on his left foot was superb… but then he dragged it back and straight at the goalie. A gentle tap into the far post and it was a simple goal. Kane does this. Sergio Aguero scores some stunners but he knows that the goal is all that matters and he wouldn’t have fluffed that.

That Monaco game will have been a wake up for Tottenham. They’ve been a couple years out of the Champions League and this is a much different squad than the Gareth Bale Brigade (Bale has won the damn thing twice since then). A bad first 20 minutes or so doomed them against Monaco. These teams are all so good (Monaco top of Ligue 1 right now) and you don’t get do-overs at this level. It’s fine, they’ll learn from this, although they weren’t helped by Pochettino dispatching Dele Alli in central midfield. That strategy should probably be retired, especially with Wanyama and Sissoko coming in. Moussa Sissoko looked really sharp playing on the wing when he came on, storming past defenders as he carried the ball forward. I get it if he isn’t trusted to play from deeper yet, given his tendency to nod off for Newcastle, but when he’s on his game there he brings a dynamism to central mid that few others can in England. Not to mention that Alli is just so much better playing further forward – as he showed at Wembley. By the way, why are they playing at Wembley in the Champs Lge? It’s because UEFA are stricter than the FA when it comes to stadiums with developments. Also an advantage is that they packed 85000 bastards into the ground, a fantastic record crowd.

All of these issues, this is a game where they can sort most of them out. The past 12 times they’ve played Sunderland, Spurs have won nine and drawn three. Zero losses. After hitting a bit of form against Stoke last weekend you’d figure this will be something similar.

Wildcard’s Pick: Spurs 3-1