The Wildcard’s Premier League Predictions - Week 8
Week Seven: 6/10
Overall: 36/70
Chelsea vs Leicester City
Sunday 12.30am (NZT)
Ooh, awkward for N’Golo Kante, right? The only one of the title team to voluntarily move on and now for the first time he gets to play against all those Champions League players he stiffed in leaving. Hey, Jamie Vardy didn’t leave. Riyad Mahrez at least is waiting one more season to squeeze more blood from this miracle stone.
Nah, Kante had every right to bugger off south to London, no worries there. But it will be fun to see him and Danny Drinkwater on opposite sides.
These are the two most recent Premier League champs and what’s funny is that with eight points from seven games is actually identical to what Chelsea were at this time last season. Identical. Ain’t it weird how the perspective shifts? What that stat ignores though is that Chelsea didn’t get better after seven games. In fact they were then only a match removed from beating Arsenal 2-0 (Costa getting bitches red carded, remember?) and people still thought they’d turn it around from there. Not gonna lie, I was one of them. But from matches 8-12 they lost four times and also beat Aston Villa (which was a sitter even for them).
After this game Leicester play: Crystal Palace, Spurs (A), West Brom, Watford (A), Middlesbrough and Sunderland (A). So… there should be a few more points before then even with Champions League games to balance. After 14 games last time, Chelsea had 15 points. In their 16th game they lost 2-1 to Leicester and Jose Mourinho was sacked.
It was only against Hull and they were always going to be a lot better following that horrific Arsenal defeat but Chelsea really did look a lot better in that game. 3-4-3 is surely the way to go for Antonio Conte, he’s usually worked with three-man defences in the past and that’s the formation that’s gonna get the best out of his new signings as well – specifically Luiz and Alonso, while N’Golo Kante is such a champ that the midfield won’t suffer from this and it also means Eden Hazard can angle in towards goal more often. It’s a strong style to play and I wonder if Conte deliberately eased them into this over time or if he’s reverted because of the slow start.
Leicester like themselves some space to move in and they’ll definitely look to take advantage if the wingbacks don’t track. Same goes for the positioning of those centre-backs. David Luiz is known to roam, Cesar Azpilicueta played RCB against Hull and he’s usually used to playing wider while Gary Cahill runs on a treadmill as it is. Leicester are a team that plays with width as well, which many teams don’t. Mahrez vs Alonso should be a belter, as should Vardy vs Luiz. Tell ya what, this is a pretty excited game over here.
In other news…
GodDAMN that’s a lot of money.
Wildcard’s Pick: 1-1
Arsenal vs Swansea City
Sunday 3.00am (NZT)
Well, hey there! Welcome to Eng-erland, Mister Bradley! Now you just pop that there hat down there on the table and let me take that coat, there you go buddy. Take a seat, friend. Anything I can getcha? Coca cola? Maybe a Bud Light? Okay then, yeehaw. Now make sure you tell the people how excited you are to be coaching in the British Premier League and don’t forget to call it ‘football’ and not soccerball.
Time Magazine: “Soccer coach Bob Bradley has become the first American to lead a team in one of Europe’s major soccer leagues, as Swansea City club announced his hiring as head coach Monday.”
Yeah that sounds about right. On one hand it’s awesome to see Swansea reach outside the box to find their new boss, bringing in a guy who feels he has a lot to prove and from a place where you don’t get too many chances in this game… but on the other hand did it have to be an American? I’d almost rather see an Aussie boss in the Premier League. Bob Bradley’s a good manager though and so long as the players can understand his accent I think this is a definite improvement over Guidolin, who was unlucky to be sacked but shouldn’t have been given the job full-time anyway so all goods.
By the way, how hilarious is it that they had Bradley’s first presser at a local hotel and right before it was due to start, their old boss Guidolin comes stumbling into the room? He was staying at the hotel and had arranged to meet someone without even realising that his old club were unveiling his replacement there. Swansea officials quietly shuffled him out the door, which sounds almost tragic.
This is what you call a rude awakening game. Bradley knows what he’s in for but getting thrashed by Arsenal in his first game still won’t be very fun. The Gunners are the next best team to City right now and the gap between those two might be smaller than the gap between Arsenal and whoever is fourth best (because Spurs are also amazing right now).
Wildcard’s Pick: Arsenal 3-0
West Bromwich Albion vs Tottenham Hotspur
Sunday 3.00am (NZT)
Speak of the friggin’ devil, here are those Spursy buggers. The only unbeaten team in the league and coming off their best match of the season and a win that ranks with anything they did last year (big victories over City and United there are a little overshadowed by how poor those teams were at the time). It was only 2-0 over MCI but could well have been 4-1 like they did them last year.
Because of that, Spurs are high on the list of teams who maybe didn’t want the international break when they got it. Everton will be wishing they got it a couple weeks earlier while a team like Man Utd would have been desperate to get back into things after dropping points last time out. Spurs though, they’ll cop it if it means one less game they have to play without Harry Kane. Word is Harry Hotspur is back in training next week.
Last season this pair drew 1-1 both times and it was drawing games like that which eventually took the sting out of Spurs’ title challenge before it had the chance to really push home – particularly those draws at the start of the campaign. WBA have only beaten Spurs once in the last 13 times they’ve played but there have been seven draws in there, confirming once again that they’re a tough team to beat. Hence, you know, this is a big one for Spurs. Gotta find a way to win it.
And I think they will. West Brom are gonna do their usual thing of ceding possession and pumping plenty of crosses in when they can. Well, those also suit the way that Spurs play so I’m not sure how they’re expecting to score. Spurs hardly leak a thing off set pieces, for example. My weird inkling here is that there’ll be a deflected goal in Tottenham’s favour.
Wildcard’s Pick: Spurs 1-0
Stoke City vs Sunderland
Sunday 3.00am (NZT)
Last round we had a clash between the last two unbeaten sides and now we have one between the only two teams without a win so far. Quite literally this is a battle between the two worst teams in the Premier League. Both Mark Hughes and David Moyes are edging ever closer to the brink (Hughesy closer because Stoke had higher expectations). This is a disaster zone. This is one you probably want to avoid, even the highlights, unless you’re watching ironically like you might a crappy low budget trash film. Like this one, a personal favourite of my own as directed by the legendarily, erm, challenged Ed Wood.
So that’s whats up here.
Wildcard’s Pick: 2-1 Stoke
Bournemouth vs Hull City
Sunday 3.00am (NZT)
Haha, oh mate. If you, like myself, are a devotee of The Guardian’s Football Weekly Podcast, then you’ll be aware of the fact that Steve Bruce, Hull City manager up until a few months ago and now the new Aston Villa boss despite having formerly managed their biggest rivals in Birmingham, once published a trio of detective fiction novels about a football manager named Steve Barnes who solved mysteries and stuff. I know, it’s too good to be true.
This is supposed to be a preview of Bourney vs Hull but the tenuous connection to Brucey is enough and so I’m heading off on this tangent. Please, come with me…
The first book was called ‘Striker!’ and it was followed ‘Sweeper!’ and ‘Defender!’ They were written in the late 90s while he was at Huddersfield Town – which explains why Steve Barnes is the manager of a club named Leddersfield Town in the books. This is what his publisher had to say about it back in 1999 as it was released:
"Steve's not TS Eliot or Samuel Becket, but the book's a damn good read. It's full of twists and turns, excitement and cliff-hangers and it's written in popular, simple, language."
When you start with an insult and then work your way round to some positivity and then belittle it in the last bit, that’s not the most glowing recommendation and perhaps predictably nobody really bought the books. But in the following years they’ve become a bit of a cult classic. For example there’s one version of Sweeper! On Amazon, it’s used and it’s going for $282.
Striker! begins with one of his players murdered and Barnes framed for the act. He spends the next 120-odd pages trying to clear his name while also prepping the lads for a massive game on the weekend. Based on Amazon reviews it sounds like perhaps the editors didn’t do their job in fixing all he spelling mistakes and maybe giving a little flow to the prose but that’s all part of the mystique. One day I’ll find a copy and fill ya in on how it goes. In the meantime, know that Bruce once called them the “biggest load of crap ever written” and enjoy this review of the second book on The Set Pieces and this lil reading from the Football Weekly pod:
Oh boy. It really is a magnificent load of crap, I love it.
Anyway, Bournemouth have taken seven points from their last four games, the only loss being a thrashing to Man City which they aren’t alone in experiencing either. They’re doing some pretty solid things and with a young team and a few new signings in key positions, you can expect them to keep getting better as things go along as well. I said during the English summer that their apparent policy of buying up players full of potential seemed like a perfect plan for a team in their position – I can picture a future in which they carve out a spot like Southampton have as a talent-spotting hub, buying them cheap and selling them expensively to bigger teams. And since then they’ve done just enough to say it’s been worth it. But yeah, this is a team that should improve as they go… which is something I’d not at all say about Hull.
Wildcard’s Pick: Bournemouth 2-0
Manchester City vs Everton
Sunday 3.00am (NZT)
Sergio Aguero: “It seems that one time, [Pep] entered the massage rooms and saw one of my team-mates, I don’t know who it was, relaxing with his phone and, I don’t know, maybe he did not like it. From then, he cut the internet.”
And there we have it, the inside word and confirmation of Guardiola’s wi-fi ban at the City training complex. No checking emails in between shuttles, no Pokemon Go during lunch, no twitter notifications beeping out of pockets. None of that. Oh that Pep, he’s such a maverick!
Now for a tale of sadness and woe that would threaten any of Shakespeare’s great tragedies:
- In February Oumar Niasse signed with Everton for £13.5m
- Having not played competitively for a few months because of the Russian season (where he’d been slaying, btw), he’d have to wait two months for his first start under Roberto Martinez.
- Niasse only played 152 minutes in his first season.
- Robert Koeman takes over as manager after Martinez is sacked, giving Niasse the chance to impress a new boss given that the one who signed him quickly figured him for a dud.
- Niasse plays 45 minutes in a pre-season game.
- Koeman tells him two days later that he’ll need to leave the club as he has no future there.
- Niasse is stripped of his squad numbers.
- Niasse is relegated to the U-23s where he doesn’t even have a locker. A stranger in a strange land indeed.
ON: “I’m in the dressing-room with the under-23s but I don’t have a locker. The other players have where they put their stuff but I don’t. I come with my bag and I just have a place I know. I put my bag down, I train and after, I put everything in my car and go home.”
What a sorry situation. SOMEONE GIVE HIM A LOAN IN JANUARY, FOR THE LOVE OF ALL THINGS GOOD AND HOLY!
Let’s brighten the mood with another anecdote out of Everton. Enner Valencia played for Ecuador the other day and they pulled off a fantastic result in beating Chile 3-0. Valencia himself was subbed off after 82 minutes, appearing to be pretty injured and needing to be wheeled off on the buggy. Something serious? Kinda. See, the other day at training police and lawyers had shown up trying to detain Enner for alleged unpaid child support. Police were also at the game and it seems Valencia had, like a bad action movie, figured out a genius way to get out of there with his wallet and freedom untouched. He faked an injury and got stretchered off, leading to a Benny Hill-esque farce where he was being taken off to an ambulance while the police chased behind.
Hehehe. As it turns out, the police have reportedly dismissed the warrant on Valencia and his lawyer claims he’s always been good with his payments and has been trying to earn more visiting rights with his daughter, the lawyer blaming dodgy laws for getting in the way.
Okay now, before the break Everton’s hot form had tailed off with a 1-0 loss to Bournemouth and a 1-1 draw with Palace taking the steam out of things (and it all started with a League Cup defeat to Norwich). City also just lost to Spurs so both teams are in need of a pick-me-up win. But before I say anything else, let me point out that I’m almost always going to pick City at home this season, just so you know. I hate ‘em but I respect ‘em.
City plays away at Barcelona after this bad boy. Surely Peppy has one eye on that one, although the players might not realise it what with no internet and all that. I fancy their attack against a great but slow Everton central defence – which is a factor too because hey look John Stones is back! Someone who’s marked Romelu Lukaku a few times before in trainings, and someone who’s coming off an international break where he was probably England’s best player.
There’s a chance that both Raheem Sterling and Kevin De Bruyne are both available here, and a chance neither are. More likely Sterling plays and KDB doesn’t. Koeman’s talking up hitting the “space behind” that City defence but they don’t really have the pace that, say, a Leicester or a Tottenham has there. Yannick Bolasie should be a key man in that case and Moussa Sissoko has played well against the Citizens in the past.
Wildcard’s Pick: 2-1 City
Crystal Palace vs West Ham United
Sunday 5.30am (NZT)
Palace aren’t as good as their results show and West Ham aren’t as bad as their own. Normally when struggling for something to say about a West Ham game I’ll fall back on the majesty of Dimitri Payet but here I’d rather throw some love towards NZ’s finest Winston Reid, who was absolutely brilliant for the kiwi side as they drew with America the other day. Better than he’s played for West Ham in any game this season, though he was pretty solid in their last effort and that means there’s a bit of form in the growing for Winnie.
Though he’s got his work cut out against Christian Benteke who you can say the same thing about.
Wildcard’s Pick: 1-1
Middlesbrough vs Watford
Monday 1.30am (NZT)
Ah mate, I dunno. Middlesbrough have had troubles putting the ball in the net while Watford have scored 12 of them already including three past Man Utd. But Watford have also leaked plenty and whole Boro teased a decent defence in the early games they’ve been letting them in too ever since. Doubt this will be the most watchable of games, so mark it a draw and let’s move on.
Non-promising stat for Boro: Gaston Ramirez and Marten De Roon are the two most dribbled-past players in the Premier League so far (37 times combined).
Wildcard’s Pick: 1-1
Southampton vs Burnley
Monday 4.00am (NZT)
Since losing 2-1 to Arsenal, Southampton have won four games and drawn two in all competitions which is nice but even nicer is that they haven’t conceded a single goal in the process. Santi Cazorla scored an injury time penalty on that occasion so that makes it a tidy 540 minutes since they last conceded. Now they play a Burnley team that has scored five times in seven PL games, kept scoreless on four occasions (plus once more in the EFL Cup) already. Which, uh, kinda gives this one away.
Only Ben Mee and Phil Jagielka have made more defensive clearances than Virgil Van Dijk’s 59. Ben Mee plays for Burnley so these two might not wanna be swinging in too many hopeful crosses into the zone. Tom Heaton is also making more saves than any other joker but he’s sitting behind Fraser Forster in the England keeper ranks. Forster hardly has a save to make himself, just eight in seven games so that gives you a clue as to how well he’s protected.
Wildcard’s Pick: 1-0 Southampton
Liverpool vs Manchester United
Tuesday 8.00am (NZT)
Mate he's as English as fish n' chips on a wet day, ol' Jurgen.
I have to say it, Liverpool are pretty great to watch this season. There are worries about Jurgen relying too much on his coaching rather than transfers (because I’d suggest most other top teams had much better summer windows) but he’s had the time with the team to start seeing genuine results now in the way that they play. There was a thought I had, like Klopp is one of those managers with a style and he brings in players to suit that. I can 100% see a time in a decade where he has become Arsene Wenger, criticised for not buying the right kinda players and all that. Of course, with Wenger his problem is that of his own prior reputation having won a few PL titles and all that. So… Klopp would have to do the same and he coaches Liverpool so yeah.
But they are a contender. If I was to split the teams into those I think have a possibility of winning from here and those that don’t then I reckon you’ve got Man City way out in front but in that challenging pack sit Arsenal, Spurs, Man Utd and Liverpool. Don’t see Everton or Leicester doing anything like that this time around and Chelsea have too many holes to provide any real confidence there. Very good team, will be battling for the Champions League… but they can’t win it.
This is gonna be a fascinating game, they always are between these two. But this time less for the personalities (well, managers aside there) and more for the tactical contrast. Even when Marouane Fellaini doesn’t play, United are still a team that’s slow in possession. Part of that is trying to build past the Van Gaal stuff but then also they have older players in some key attacking positions, particularly Rooney and Ibra. Mata isn’t a speedster, neither is Carrick should he get the chance. They prefer to pass it around, working little angles and then zip-zap-bang with a quick little one-two or something. They were all over Stoke with that stuff but couldn’t put ‘em away.
Liverpool meanwhile are more of a hustle bustle lot. Gegenpressing is starting to enter the middle-aged English footy pundit’s vocabulary finally (those people are always so hilariously behind the times) and that’s what they’ll offer vs Man Utd. Pressure on guys like Herrera and Pogba, looking to turn it over and hit hard before they’re set. Pogba is strong enough that he’s not often dispossessed in the tackle though he does spray a wayward ball or several each game. This is why playing Fellaini (or even my man Carrick) would be an error… though that hasn’t stopped Jose before and you just know he’ll blame the player for it if he does. But yeah, supposing Pog and Herrera are in, I’m not sure the United backline will be as exposed as some might think. Add in that Smalling and Bailly are both very quick and good at recovering.
Then you have the United team that slaughtered Leicester from set pieces up against a Liverpool team that cannot seem to defend them and there’s an outlet right there. Tricky stuff but this is also being played at Anfield and it’s an Anfield full of renewed passion with how Klopp’s lads are going this season. Only their third home game too, adding to the hype. Call in sick for the morning on Tuesday, this is one best not missed. I’m picking it comes out of the wash roughly even but it could go in any direction, really.
Wildcard’s Pick: 2-2