It’s pretty much over, we all know that. If the Nix were gonna save this thing then they really needed somehow not to lose to Western Sydney Wanderers on the weekend. Still, William Wallace mooned the Englishmen because you have to see things through to the bitter end, no pun intended, and the Wellington Phoenix remain in mathematical contention.

Win this weekend and they can think about winning next weekend. Do that and they’ll maybe even win the week after that and, well, after that they might not even need to win the last one. A draw might be enough by then. Look, until it’s done and dusted we at least have to try – that goes for us as fans as well.

That there is what we’re up against. Four more games and now five points off of Western Sydney after losing to them on Sunday night. They really couldn’t afford that result but then on recent form it’s also hard to imagine other outcome. Right now the Nix are a mix and match kinda team. There doesn’t seem to be any consensus to team selection, or even tactics, as Greenie and Buck hustle for whatever the magic formula might be.

Given there’s a maximum of 12 more points they can take, the Phoenix can still finish in fourth but that’d require the Roar getting no more than a single draw in their last few games. We play them in the last rough though, so if they do get slumping then it’ll be in Phoenix hands for the lasts hurdle. There are some tough games for Brisbane coming up too. Gonna need Central Coast to do something special there, however.

Similarly Perth are only a point behind Brisbane and unlikely to screw it up from here. Three home games from four is sure to mean at least the three more points they’ll need to ensure finals footy. This is also bearing in mind that the Nix’s goal difference is well off the rest of the contenders. Chances are they won’t fix that leak in the short term.

So the only realistic way of edging up that table is getting Western Sydney by the coattails and dragging them down somehow. It’s been a shocking season for them, only six wins from 23 games after making the Grand Final last time and that’s including the three points nicked off the Nix the other night. Thing is, the Phoenix have only won six themselves and have drawn plenty fewer. With both Melbourne teams to play, that could mean six points dropped there and an avenue back in for Wellington, of course that requires Welly to win their own games too and that’ll be where this falls apart. (Can’t ignore the Jets either if we’re still giving the Nix a shot).

Remaining Fixtures:

Wellington Phoenix - Newcastle (H), Victory (A), Sydney (H), Brisbane (A)
Brisbane Roar - Victory (H), Central Coast (H), Perth (A), Wellington (H)
Perth Glory - Sydney (H), Adelaide (A), Brisbane (H), Melbourne City (H)
Western Sydney Wanderers - Melbourne City (H), Newcastle (A), Victory (H), Adelaide (A)
Newcastle Jets - Wellington (A), Wanderers (H), Central Coast (A), Sydney (A)

Sydney and the Melly Victory are the two best teams in the A-League this season and by a distance. In four games so far against them the Phoenix have won one and lost three conceding 10 goals and scoring only five. Most of that coming in the 3-0 home win over the Victory, who’ll be hosting in this decisive one. Then it’s away to Brisbane where Wellington won a couple weeks back. Sweet, so there’s prior form there at least… just gotta get it to the last game somehow.

The one simple fixture in there is a Should Win against the Newcastle Jets at home. A win and a draw against them so far this season and this one’s at Westpac. Yeah… except this game also falls smack-bang in the middle of two All Whites qualifiers so the team will be without Glen Moss, Tom Doyle, Andrew Durante, Michael McGlinchey and Shane Smeltz. Oh and Alex Rufer, for what that’s worth. Plus they’re playing Fiji so count Roy Krishna out as well. Hmm, wonder how Sydney or the Victory would go if they were forced to play without six first teamers (and a reserve)…

If you can find the optimism in there then good luck to you. The task now is the same as it’s always been, one game at a time, the relief being that most fans have already resigned themselves to another year without the playoffs. Mossy said it best when he said they don’t really deserve it anyway. True, conceding 41 goals in 23 games shouldn’t get you a post-season match. Nor should six wins and five draws in those 23 games. A coach sacked mid-season, don’t ignore that fact either. And it’s not like they were a perennial playoff team already before this campaign. No, they were about where they are now. Keeping steady wasn’t gonna be enough, they had to make big improvements and those didn’t come.

Which leaves us with plenty of questions about the coaching situation. About whether we oughta be developing some young players in the last few weeks. About who is gonna stay and who’s getting the hell out next season. Lots of questions, the kind of stuff that’s normal at the end of a frustrating season. You need all that to keep everyone accountable.

But we’ll save the post-mortems ‘til the corpse is cold.