Impending Crossroads: Mitchell Santner & Kiwi Cricket's Status-Quo
We're not quite graced with the same luxury of pure cricketing depth in Aotearoa as other nations, which in a way excused the rapid rise of Mitchell Santner. Despite passing the 'eye-test' with flying colours thanks to some nifty flight and gorgeous stroke-play, Santner's stats in domestic cricket do little to demand an international call up, let alone the immesne faith that has been placed upon his shoulders.
This is a bloke who has appears to be the second-coming of Daniel Vettori, yet his First-Class averages with bat and ball are the complete opposite of what they should be. Santner has been anointed the No.1 spinner for the Blackcaps and Aotearoa's top spinner has a FC bowling average of 47.50, which doesn't appear to be overly flash and a strike-rate of 91.9 (meaning he takes a wicket every 91.9 deliveries) has Santner lurking deep in Vettori's shadow.
Directly comparing Vettori's FC bowling stats of 31.82avg, 2.61rpo and 73sr to Santner's 47.50avg, 3.10rpo and 91.9sr can only leave you wondering how Santner has come to be the lad to take over from Vettori. Santner's promotion to this position and the perceived lack of strike-power he offers the Test team combined with a Test batting record that doesn't have any of us confident that Santner can reach his potential, leaves us in a rather interesting situation with our No.1 Test spinner.
Santner hasn't scored enough runs, or scored his 321 Test runs quickly enough (42.62sr) to warrant a batting spot in the top-six. Having a spinner who can clearly wield a bat like Santner, had us all excited about the prospect of Santner being a legit all-rounder who can play in the same team as the likes of Jimmy Neesham, Corey Anderson and Ish Sodhi, opening all sorts of selection possibilities. Santner could definitely blossom as a batsman, however right now, Santner is simply our No.1 Test spinner who is a handy lower order batsman.
How Santner fits in as the No.1 spinner and lower order batsman, reflects Blackcaps Test teams of yester-year, especially when Santner is conceding just 2.95rpo. That's where similarities between Santner and Vettori look encouraging - depending on what you want from the Blackcaps - as Santner's Test record (37.92avg, 2.95rpo, 77sr) isn't too far behind Vettori's (34.36avg, 2.59rpo, 79.5).
Much of Santner's Test cricket will come in Aotearoa, where conditions suit the seamers and this is where Santner nestles into his niche within the Blackcaps Test team. Santner has the control to keep one end tight, while the Blackcaps seam attack are rotated from the other end and skipper Kane Williamson can trust that Santner's able to maintain pressure over a period of time.
Without the experience of Vettori and a wide variety of deliveries, Santner is simply not going to be a major attacking weapon. In saying that, Santner has gone wicket-less in just one of his 11 Test matches and he's taken more than a single wicket in eight of those Test matches. Santner has taken more than 3 wickets in five Test matches, with his best Test hauls (5 and 4 wickets) coming in India, against the best players of spin in the world on their home turf.
Nathan Lyon is a spinner who enjoys a fairly similar team situation to Santner as Lyon plays most of his Test cricket on pitches that favour everyone else (including batsmen) over him. Santner's record (37.92avg, 2.95rpo, 77sr) isn't a whole lot worse than Lyon's 33.87avg, 3.19rpo, 63.7sr and with Santner only going to play more cricket in the sub-continent, there's a fair chance that in 12 months his numbers will be far closer to Lyon's.
Let's go right to the top and compare Santner to the world's best; Ravi Ashwin has a bowling average of 24.96, rpo of 2.91 and strike-rate of 51.3. Again, this doesn't reflect poorly on Santner and the context of Santner still being at the beginning of his Test cricket journey.
England's Moeen Ali was also quickly anointed England's No.1 spinner, yet Santner has a better average than Ali's 42.22 and concedes less runs than Ali's 3.72rpo while Ali has a better strike-rate of 68.
I've harped on a lot about the young crop of seamers who are coming through in Aotearoa's domestic cricket and in landscape of the Blackcaps typically relying on their seam attack to do the job, Santner can settle as a economical spinner who chips in with a couple of wickets each Test. Right now the Blackcaps don't have one or two seamers who can dominate around the world (given the plateau of Tim Southee and Trent Boult) and it's hard to see any of the young crop really blossoming into dominant international bowlers.
Do we have a Kagiso Rabada or Josh Hazlewood/Mitchell Starc coming through?
No, we've got solid seamers who can do a job, but we don't have genuine individual match-winners.
That's where Santner and his all-round ability could give the Blackcaps a point of difference moving forward.
We need to be 110 percent honest about the Blackcaps; will they be the best Test team in the world with Williamson, Latham, Santner and a few medium-pace seamers?
No, silly. Look around the Test cricket world and you'll see numerous teams with all sorts of weapons.
The status-quo of kiwi Test cricket is a trio of seamers and a spinner, which is good enough to win Test matches at home against weaker teams without doing much damage against the best. If the status-quo of a bowling attack consisting of medium pace seamers with a economical spinner remains, the status-quo of the Blackcaps being a mediocre Test team will remain.
If Santner can develop as a batsman, then the Blackcaps can play another spinner and/or roll with the power of Anderson and Neesham with the bat. A bowling attack of three seamers, Santner and Ish Sodhi for example would give the Blackcaps attacking weapons that will at least give them the chance to chase wins overseas. Key to that however is runs from Santner's bat, as the Blackcaps can't carry a wildcard like Sodhi in their team if Santner isn't batting at No.6.
Keep in mind that Lockie Ferguson's best work has come in Plunket Shield cricket and not 50-over or T20 cricket. A bowling attack including Ferguson's pace, Sodhi's leggies, Santner's economy and the swing of Ben Wheeler/Ed Nuttall ... or the bounce and movement of Canterbury's Kyle Jamieson, would give the Blackcaps some attack funk in the future.
Santner reflects the situation of the Blackcaps Test team as he's the perfect bowler to maintain status-quo, which also means he's the perfect bowler to build an aggressive bowling attack with numerous weapons around.
How you view this situation all depends on whether you want the Blackcaps to keep truckin' along as an average Test team, or if you want them to genuinely have a crack at the top spot. In the next few years, the Blackcaps can make moves to have a crack at that top spot and most of those moves involve having as many weapons as possible, building around the steady core of Latham, Williamson and Santner.
Much of that centres on Santner developing as a batsman and if he can, then the Blackcaps have more room to offer funkier Test teams that could shake things up. The likes of Santner, Neesham and Anderson haven't done enough with bat and ball to demand all-round Test spots right now, just as Sodhi hasn't quite done enough to demand an attacking Test spinner spot. At some stage soon, the Blackcaps will need to take a risk on these blokes and give them time to settle into their roles in this team and Test cricket.
The quicker that happens, the better. The quicker Santner can suss out scoring runs against quality opposition, the better. If that doesn't quite happen, then it's a case of sticking with the status-quo or spicing things up in a legit pursuit of Test cricket glory.