Kiwi Cricketing Thoughts: Exploring Some Test Options
The joy of a fumbling Blackcaps team is that calls to drop this player, or that player, intensify to the point where they get a bit crazy. This really hit home when watching the Blackcaps fluff that second Test against South Africa and the lovely commentators then went down a rabbit-hole to try come up with a few options to replace Tom Latham. Granted, many of those commentators thought it would be silly to drop Latham but their thoughts on this matter led me to believe that these commentators don't read The Niche Cache as they had no idea who was actually in the frame as a possible Test opener.
When considering who should be dropped, the trickiest bit is always coming up with a legit option as to who should come into the team. This is where things get weird as personal opinions don't quite connect the dots of information that the selectors/decision-makers have provided. Yes, this information can be incredibly confusing and in recent times it has failed to make any sense, but they are the dots that we are working with here.
So given those dots, and knowledge of the domestic game, here's somewhat of a depth-chart thingy, or just possible and logical options.
At the top of the order, Jeet Raval has secured his spot for now and the questions revolve around Tom Latham. George Worker's name has been mentioned and his spinning ability fits the Blackcaps trend of picking blokes on their weaker attribute, plus Worker is averaging 47.50 in the Plunket Shield this season.
The issue here is that Worker's two half-centuries this season came with Worker batting at No.3 and No.4, not opening. Greg Hay (FC average of 41.50) and Ben Smith (37.98avg) are Central District's top opening pair and Worker's got a First-Class average of 27.93. Hence Worker will probably struggle to get a opener's gig in Test cricket.
As I explored here, the only real option with Latham's lack of form (besides the logical move of letting him find some form) is to bring in a veteran to cover the gap short-term. Brad Wilson, Luke Woodcock, Hay and Michael Papps are all on fire this summer so they could do that job, however there's minimal benefit to kicking Latham to the curb for the last Test of the summer.
The middle order has been a contentious topic, with many calling for Henry Nicholls' head (at least until his Test ton). Neil Broom is averaging 53 in the Plunket Shield this summer and as a veteran, he's a fine like-for-like replacement for Ross Taylor. I wouldn't bank on Broom having any substantial future in Test cricket, he's just doing a job.
Colin Munro appears to have been black-balled, so regardless of how much you froth over his Plunket Shield numbers, it doesn't look like he's gonna get selected any time soon. Tom Bruce is the bloke who should be next-up and his current Plunket Shield average of 48 reflects his career FC average of 46.47, having hit four centuries and 12 half-centuries in just 24 games. Bruce will likely have to wait until Nicholls grants him an opportunity with consistent failures, or Bruce could get a looksie at the No.4 spot if Taylor's future is up in the air for whatever reason and Broom doesn't take his opportunity.
Bruce is actually a low key all-rounder with his off-spin giving him a reasonable FC bowling average of 33.76 and this season Bruce has a Plunket Shield bowling average of 25!!!!!
Given how much we hear about bowlers who can bat and batsmen who can bowl, Bruce is the perfect bloke right? Bruce and Williamson offering runs and some off-spin options? Meh, Bruce is good enough to be viewed strictly as a batsman and a batsman who should get the next opportunity.
That fascination with all-rounders is a kiwi tradition and with Scott Kuggeleijn out of action this summer - expect Kuggeleijn to give Corey Anderson and Jimmy Neesham some stiff competition in the next 24 months - it's probably a good time to point out that we have a bloke who averages 40.30 with the bat and 23.28 with the ball this season. The only thing holding Andrew Ellis back appears to be his age and while I'm all for giving the fresh wave of young cricketers a chance to establish themselves in Test cricket, I'd happily entertain a case for Ellis to take the current spot held by Neesham.
I prefer bumping BJ Watling up to No.6 and playing five certified bowlers though; Ellis could legit be selected as just a seamer, who can bat, of course.
Tim Southee, Trent Boult, Neil Wagner and Matt Henry are Aotearoa's best seamers. That's what the decision-makers reckon anyway, don't forget Doug Bracewell who has always been in the mix and took 6 wickets @ 24avg in the two games before he got injured. So The Stable currently consists of Southee, Boult, Wagner, Henry and Bracewell.
Seth Rance is a dominant force in domestic cricket and is averaging 20.05 this summer. He's consistently been up there as one of Aotearoa's best bowlers in recent seasons, however I'd put the chances of him earning a Blackcaps Test call up at very slim. The dude should definitely get a go, I just can't see it happening. I'd chuck Brent Arnel and Hamish Bennett in there as well, even if their upside isn't quite as high as others.
Kyle Jamieson is an intriguing prospect given his height and ball movement, however he's out for the season after owning an average of 18 through five Plunket Shield games. Kuggeleijn is the leading wicket-taker for seamers but an honourable mentioned should go to Wellington seamer Matt McEwan who has 16 wickets @ 23.06avg.
Rance, Kuggeleijn and McEwan are deserve to be in the conversation and I certainly wouldn't be mad if one of those three got selected. However, I can't go past Auckland quick Lockie Ferguson who you may recall as the wild limited-overs speed gun. Well Ferguson actually has a FC average of 25.83 and an average of 25.25 this season, he's only conceding 2.85rpo and if you had any concerns of Ferguson's durability then you'd be pleased to know that he's got through 212.3 overs in seven games.
In the three domestic formats, Ferguson only averages under 30 in four-day stuff. So it makes sense to seriously consider him as a strike-weapon in the Test team.
As for the spinners, well it's really a case of take your pick as you could easily say that Ajaz Patel deserves a shot as the leading wicket-taker, or that Todd Astle and Tarun Nethula's leg-spin deserves a crack over Ish Sodhi's. Ajaz Patel, Mitchell Santner and Jeetan Patel are similar in that their accuracy and subtle variations get them wickets and since Santner is our Test spinner (kinda), it's difficult to see Ajaz being selected as he and Santner do the same thing; although perhaps Ajaz does it better...
Ajaz Patel: 33 games (FC), 133 wickets @ 32.39avg/3.24rpo, 59.9sr.
Mitchell Santner: 37 games, 55 wickets @ 47.94avg/3.04rpo, 94.5sr.
Lol.
Santner is clearly a favourite and as I look into my crystal ball, I can see Ajaz back up two tremendous summers with a third and still not get a chance. As rough as that sounds, it appears highly likely that's how it will pan out. Partly because, well, Santner can bat a bit as well - peep the silly trend.
As to which spinner is next in line, it's hard to tell. In theory Sodhi should be as he's a young leggy who would operate well in conjunction with Santner or Ajaz with the finger spinner holding an end down while Sodhi attacks. But the reality is that we've see a Blackcaps Test team with Santner and Jeetan Patel, so yeah.