Blackcaps x Champions Trophy: Game One vs Australia

Haere mai Cozza Cozzo, it's been a while.

Friday night signals the start of the Blackcaps Champions Trophy tournament and after their second warm-up game against Sri Lanka, we really are none the wiser. Both teams took the piss, just as most other teams playing warm-up games did and there's nothing wrong with that. Martin Guptill and Kane Williamson retired after having a decent period in the middle and nine kiwi bowlers were used, even Tom Latham was thrown the wicket-keeping gloves for the first time since the start of the tri-series.

While the headlines zoned in on Guptill's century, you'd be silly to overlook the fact that no kiwi bowler conceded less than 5.50rpo. Sri Lanka scored a pile of runs and while I can't place any importance on Trent Boult conceding 9.40rpo and taking his 2 wickets late in the innings, or Jeetan Patel going wicket-less in his 6 overs @ 8rpo, or Jimmy Neesham conceding 15 off his lone over, or even on a positive note we had Corey Anderson bowling 7 freakin' overs (!); these are merely intriguing, possibly meaningless observations. 

Giving Latham the keeping gloves for this game was very weird and now I'm wondering if we will see Latham used as a wicket-keeper/opener for the opening game against Australia. Latham has scored the runs needed to keep Luke Ronchi out of that opening spot and most of Aotearoa wants Latham to open with Guppy; scores of 52, 15, 54, 104, 84 and 44 in Ireland/England can't be ignored. 

As I've said all along though, things get weird because Latham was solely used as batsmen on tour and Ronchi has been getting all the reps behind the stumps. We know Latham is the best opening partner for Guptill and on the eve of the opening game, we don't know who the No.1 wicket-keeper/batsman is. That's kinda strange, may we all send a prayer to the stars, Jah, Buddha, Allah and God that Latham is ready for some silky glove-work.

Given my Latham loving, this is how I expect the Blackcaps to line up against Australia: Guptill, Latham (wk), Williamson, Taylor, Broom, Anderson.

That leaves five spots up for grabs, chuck Tim Southee and Trent Boult in there, leaving three spots. I don't think there's much room to play both Mitchell Santner and Jeetan Patel, but this will depend entirely on the conditions and I'd also suggest that Santner has his nose in front thanks to the desire from the Blackcaps to stack their batting line up. Yup, it's debatable whether Santner can score crucial lower-order runs but they need another hitter at No.7.

Don't get caught up on Santner and/or Neesham though as the Blackcaps have faith in Adam Milne's ability as a batsman and if there was any kiwi batsman who I'd want coming in to either boost the total by 50 runs in a few overs, or chase down total @ 9rpo in the last few overs, it's Colin de Grandhomme. De Grandhomme is simply our best finisher and while his style may not suit saving a Test, it's nicely suited to a one-day tournament. 

The best case scenario is that Santner and Patel are selected based purely on their ability with the ball; who is the best spinner for this game? Then move forward knowing that with Anderson at No.6 and de Grandhomme at No.7, you have a middle/lower order that can score quickly and freely. Then they can also chip in with the required bowling workload.

With Southee and Boult there, we're left with Santer/Patel to spin and then it's a decision of whether you want two spinners, or Mitchell McClenaghan, or Adam Milne. Playing two spinners with Southee, Boult, de Grandhomme and Anderson as seamers isn't such a bad idea, especially if conditions are a bit slower and that would also help de Grandhomme's dibbly-dobblers. 

If it's one spinner, then I want McClenaghan's wicket-taking ability in there against Australia.  McClenaghan can serve up a heavy-ball, then flip through a bunch of variations, carrying his feisty nature throughout which will be lovely to watch against those Aussies. This would give a bowling attack of (starting with No.7): de Grandhomme, Santner, McClenaghan/Patel, Southee, Boult. 

What can we expect from Australia?

David Warner and Aaron Finch will open, followed by Steve Smith. Rather impressive top-three and then we could see Chris Lynn, Travis Head, Glenn Maxwell, Mathew Wade (wk) and Marcus Stoinis make up the middle order. Head and Maxwell can both offer spin, otherwise Australia have leggy Adam Zampa in their squad but I reckon that Head, Maxwell and Stoinis will fill in when required and let Mitchell Starc, Pat Cummins and Josh Hazlewood lead the attack.

Australia can bolster their bowling attack by taking out Lynn and including Zampa, James Pattinson or John Hastings. Either of those three are great options and this gives Australia immense batting power/craft along with a bowling attack that can legit blast a team out of the contest. How the Blackcaps batsmen handle Australia's bowling attack will lead my intrigue as it's going to be difficult for Broom, Anderson and de Grandhomme (or any other No.7) to dominate Australia's bowlers late in the innings. 

The responsibility falls on the shoulders of the top-four and that's where I like having Latham as he's far more solid than Ronchi. Not only can these batsmen take the game away from Australia, but they are best-equipped to adjust to the game's scenarios and if the middle/lower order are trying to sum things up in the 34th over, the kiwis will have problems.

Be optimistic about our bowlers and hope that they can execute to the very best of their ability. I'm realistic here and am struggling to see how any combination of Blackcaps bowlers can roll through, let alone restrict Australia's batsmen as they are all fine batsmen who can tick things over and take a bus to boom-town. 

Ultimately we are banking on out best players to perform. Guptill, Williamson and Taylor need to score the runs, while Southee and Boult must put a dent in Australia's batting line up early. If this was a franchise competition, this would be why these players are paid the big bucks and there's no use in these lads performing at their best during a home summer, if they struggle to translate their ability into a major tournament.

Is Corey Anderson on that same level? We don't know, no one knows right now as we haven't seen Anderson do his all-rounder thing in a while. He's the wildcard, the x-factor and as he's been absent for a period of time, Anderson will be eager to stamp his mark on this tournament. While there has been a lack of planning and foresight in selecting this squad, there was a clear plan in place for Anderson over the kiwi summer and everything was building towards this game.

Anderson batted all summer long and had his bowling workloads wisely restricted, gradually increasing as we neared this moment. This is not only a case of wanting to see what Anderson's got; Aotearoa needs Anderson to be at his best, or even better than he was before.

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