How Far Up The All-Time Test Run Scorer’s Chart Can Kane Williamson Get?
Kane Williamson is going to break all of New Zealand’s relevant batting records. If only you had a dollar for every time you heard somebody say that, right? From the most knowledgeable of commentators and pundits to Jerry down at the pub, Kane Williamson’s greatness is non-negotiable at this point and since greatness is generally expressed in statistics – Bradman’s average, Tendulkar’s centuries, etc. - that means that Williamson is destined to shatter records, no doubt about it. To say otherwise would be sacrilege.
But that’s boring. It’s too easy to say he’ll sit atop all our batting charts someday, what’s more captivating is by how much and how that’ll compare to the worldwide records. Most Test runs, most centuries, best average as a Blackcap... he’s well on pace for every one of those numbers and it’s not particularly close - in fact he’s already got the hundreds record and his average is miles ahead of the competition. For him to drop under JF Reid’s average he’d have to get ducks in each of his next 13 Test innings in a row... this a fella who only has nine ducks in 140 Test innings so far. Here are those three main Blackcaps batting stats as they currently stand...
The only question there is how long Ross Taylor can hold him off with the runs, which in turn depends on how much longer Taylor chooses to play and at this point that doesn’t feel like retirement will be any time soon... fingers crossed, knock on wood, please God don’t forsake us now. Those kiwi numbers are pretty well in the bag for Prince Kane though, which naturally makes you wonder how far up the global charts he can climb. That’s the difference between being a New Zealand legend and a legend of the very sport itself. Hmm...
Okay so forget about those averages. To be honest, as long as he keeps it above 50 then he’s keeping it special – especially doing so whilst playing for New Zealand. As for the other marks, it seems the modern standard for Indigo Plateau entry is 10,000 runs and 30 centuries. Of the 13 men with 10k runs, only two of them didn’t play during this century (Border & Gavaskar). Ross Taylor’s 7238 runs have him down in 46th all time, although as we well know the esteemed Rossco is still making his way steadily up that list. He’s just turned 36 and if he can play for 2-3 more blessed years (taking him through to the next World Cup) then he should hopefully make it to 8000 runs and maybe 22 hundreds or so. 30 men have topped that 8k figure. Joe Root, David Warner, and Virat Kohli are on pace to get there before Taylor but that’s a fair target to aim for regardless.
Kane Williamson is six years younger. That’s six more years of prime performance to work his way up the ladder. He turns 30 in early August, and the Blackcaps won’t have played Test cricket prior to that, so we can lock in his current numbers up until that life milestone. Unsurprisingly, he’s about a billion miles beyond every other New Zealand batsman prior to turning 30; Williamson is literally more than two thousand runs ahead of closest challengers Fleming and Crowe at the same age, and also eight hundies ahead of Crowe. Ross Taylor is fourth in runs and tied third in hundreds (tied with Tom Latham, how about that? Latham’s still got two years to go until his numbers <30 are final too).
There aren’t many kiwi batsmen who have been drastically better after their thirtieth birthday, Fleming is one who did get more consistent but most of them carry on the course they’d already been heading on, at least in Test cricket anyway. Taylor averaged 46.94 before 30 and has averaged 45.00 ever since, for example. Pretty stable. Brendon McCullum is an exception to that rule – 37.24 ave/6 100s before 30 compared to the same amount of hundreds (in fewer innings) at an average of 42.11 afterwards. Daniel Vettori is another, two hundreds at a 27.44 average before thirty and four hundreds at 37.34 after. But those are the local hombres whereas Kanos’ ideal parallels are from the prestige worldwide portfolio.
Looking worldwide then, Williamson has the 8th most Test runs before his 30th birthday – and none of those ahead of him did so in fewer Test matches. Eighth most all time, read that sentence again for effect. That’s more runs than Ricky Ponting had at the same age (in three fewer matches), more runs than Virat Kohli or Steve Smith at the same age (they’re a couple years older, so they top him on the overall numbers). Joe Root is third on that list but having played a dozen more matches and he’s got fewer hundreds and a worse average. Of the thirteen fellas in the 10k runs club, Williamson has more runs than all but three of them did at the same age. Williamson’s 21 centuries are also tied for 7th most aged under 30... tied with Don Bradman no less. Sachin Tendulkar leads the way both with 8811 runs and 31 hundreds before the age of 30 but Sachin was playing Test cricket as a sixteen year old and continued until he was forty so his numbers are untouchable, no need to worry about that. As far as what Kane Williamson has achieved to date: so far so good. Now the subject turns towards what he can do with the rest of his time.
Most Test Runs Prior To 30th Birthday
John Wright leads the way for New Zealanders after turning 30. He scored 3748 runs from 51 matches, averaging 42.11 with 9 hundreds. If Williamson can match that then he’s gonna get himself into that exclusive 10k runs/30 tons club – in which only twelve legends currently reside (although Smith, Root, and Kohli feel destined to race Williamson to that mark, maybe even Warner although he’s a bit older). If he keeps his average above fifty then that knocks two more out of the club as well. The only folks with 10k runs/30 tons/50+ average are: Tendulkar, Ponting, Kallis, Dravid, Sangakkara, Lara, Chanderpaul, Waugh, Gavaskar, and Younis Khan. Every one of them needed at least 213 Test innings so Williamson would need to log another 70-80 just to get into the lower ground of that territory... which means about another 50 Tests. With the rate we play them at compared to other nations and with the current confusion about everything he’d possibly need to play until he’s 38 to do that. But remember that at this current point of his career he’s very much on pace with those current club members.
Further on that idea, these fellas are the six top active Test run scorers at this current moment. Keep in mind that every innings fewer that Williamson has compared to the others is fifty runs that’s missing from his tally. Also keep in mind that everybody moved up one when Hashim Amla - 9283 runs at 46.64 with 28 hundreds - retired last year. Here’s the list...
Joe Root (born 1990) – 92 MAT | 7599 RUNS | 48.40 AVE | 17 100s
David Warner (1986) – 84 MAT | 7244 RUNS | 48.94 AVE | 24 100s
Virat Kohli (1988) – 86 MAT | 7240 RUNS | 53.62 AVE | 27 100s
Ross Taylor (1984) – 101 MAT | 7238 RUNS | 46.10 AVE | 19 100s
Steve Smith (1989) – 73 MAT | 7227 RUNS | 62.84 AVE | 26 100s
Kane Williamson (1990) – 80 MAT | 6476 RUNS | 50.99 AVE | 21 100s
The race is most certainly on.
Globally speaking, John Wright is only 42nd in terms of runs scored after the age of 30. Rahul Dravid leads the way there with 7674 of them. Batting is an art form that doesn’t necessarily diminish with age, the toll on the body doesn’t compare to what seam bowlers put themselves through for example. Most of the greats on that all-time run scorers list got there by playing deep into their 30s and continuing to tally up the runs and tons. Alec Stewart, incredibly, played 107 Test matches after his 30th birthday. Tendulkar and Dravid played 95 of them. Steve Waugh 92. But, yeah, England and India and Australia tend to play more matches than anyone else so they aren’t really safe reference points for what Williamson might do.
The best reference is probably Ross Taylor. Rossco is also one of NZ’s three modern icons of batting and playing in the same era should make him the closest in terms of expected games too, you get the idea.
Prior To Their 30th Birthday:
Ross Taylor – 98 INNS | 4178 RUNS | 46.94 AVE | 11 100s
Kane Williamson – 140 INNS | 6476 RUNS | 50.99 AVE | 21 100S
After Their 30th Birthday:
Ross Taylor – 80 INNS | 3060 RUNS | 45.00 AVE | 8 100s
Kane Williamson - TBD
So, let’s assume then that over the next six years Kane Williamson can exactly match what Ross Taylor has achieved over the past six years. Run for run, an exact copy of his record. That’ll put him in this kind of territory...
220 INNS | 9536 RUNS | 48.90 AVE | 29 100s
But then also Williamson averages five runs more per innings than Taylor does, roughly. Add five runs per innings to all that and here we go...
220 INNS | 9936 RUNS | 50.95 AVE | 29 100s
(Sidenote: If Taylor and Williamson keep going at their respective career averages and never retire, each playing every single match with the exact same number of innings, and the Blackcaps play an average of ten Tests per calendar year... Williamson will overtake Taylor’s run total sometime around 2035, by my quickfire maths. Williamson does bat one spot higher so he probably will get a few bonus innings but point being that the 762 run difference between them should be safe for Rossco until he retires. He can enjoy a few years as Aotearoa’s All Time Top Run Scorer in the meantime).
If all that carries on for the next six years then Williamson has the rest of... however much is left in his career from there... to score that one last hundy that’ll tip him into that illustrious company. That’s assuming that he continues on his current career trajectory, that he plays every game, that his form never drops off (or even picks up further), that he doesn’t suffer any long term injuries, that he doesn’t get bored and retire early... this is all some very loose speculation. Check out that list of the top ten run scorers prior to thirty and three of them are active players, a couple of them retired relatively young, a couple more were just that little bit more inconsistent in their later years. It’s not a list that correlates with the all time top run scorers - only Tendulkar, Kallis, Cook, and Ponting are there which is less than half of them... although s’pose if Williamson, Kohli, and Root carry on the way they’re going then soon enough it will.
What that really shows, I guess, is that there are those like Alastair Cook who did the bulk of his work before the age of 30. There are those like Rahul Dravid and Kumar Sangakkara who did their best work in the back half of their careers. Then there are those like Sachin Tendulkar who were incredible the whole way through... except maybe for those last 18 months or so (come on, even the diehards have to admit that Sachin played on too long just to get to that century of centuries in Tests + ODIs combined).
That all means that predicting where Kane Williamson might end up on that list is impossible unless you’re proficient with a crystal ball and that’s exactly the way it should be – the future’s more fun when it’s unwritten. In other words, enjoy it in the moment because to get a permanent answer to that main question means his career will be over. But keeping it in a nice, wide ballpark here... ten thousand runs and thirty tons are very much on the cards at his current pace. Jeezus, imagine that.
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