The Tim Southee & Trent Boult T20 World Cup Impact
Spin, spin, spin. We're all sniffing around covid pondering about the value of spin bowling at this T20 World Cup. Not just the lads delivering spin, this flows into how batsmen negotiate the best 4-over spinners in the world and in Aotearoa we tend to roll through a summer with limited spin funk. Aotearoa has two high quality spinners that I've explored here, plus in Kane Williamson there is a pure craftsman capable of handling any spin and any situation.
This Blackcaps T20 World Cup squad also has two of Aotearoa's best seamers ever in Trent Boult and Tim Southee. Since January 1st, 2017 (after last World Cup) these two are joined by Ish Sodhi (1st) and Mitchell Santner (3rd) as the leading Blackcaps wicket-takers in T20I cricket. Chuck in Lockie Ferguson (5th) and the five best T20I bowlers in the last three years are all part of this squad, plus I'd go as far as saying that these five would be by main bowling unit to play Pakistan and India.
Southee is 2nd behind Sodhi with 53w and Boult is 4th with 31w. Both have records around 24avg/8.5rpo and that's a great sign as Southee has played twice as many games as Boult; they are equally as effective despite the disparity in game time. For all T20I bowlers since start of 2018, Sodhi is the best kiwi ranked 5th and Southee is right behind him in 6th. Santner is then ranked 15th and Boult's 36th. There are 41 bowlers in the world with 30+ wickets, four of them are kiwis with two spinners and two seamers.
Despite all the similarities shared between Southee and Boult along their cricketing journeys, they have very different T20I usage. Southee's record is boosted by a lot of T20I cricket in Aotearoa and this is a tinge across all of the Blackcaps, resulting in Southee currently being in his best calendar year of T20I cricket. Southee's 12w @ 19.50avg/8rpo record this year is the only year of his career (since 2008) in which he's averaging below 20 with at least 5 wickets.
Southee is vastly experienced and has a solid record of 24w @ 22avg/8rpo through 19 games in 'Asia'. Southee was also solid in three IPL games recently with 3w @ 31.66avg/8rpo which rounds off as Southee's second best IPL campaign of his seven years playing IPL. Ultimately though, Southee has an IPL record of 31w @ 44.77avg/9rpo and this is in contrast to Boult.
In 62 IPL games, Boult has 76w @ 26.09avg/8.39rpo. Boult just got through his second consecutive campaign with 10+ games and after a hot start in the IPL's first stanza, Boult hit a plateau in the recent second stanza to finish with 13w @ 31.23avg/8rpo. Boult also has a fantastic record in Asia (10w @ 14.10avg/8rpo) and Boult hasn't actually played a T20I in United Arab Emirates while he's gathered plenty of IPL-UAE experience.
Boult is the leading kiwi wicket-taker in IPL cricket with 76w - ranked 36th. Mitchell McClenaghan has a better record with 71w @ 25.39avg. However you want to slice this, it's pretty obvious that Boult is one of the low key best T20 bowlers in the world and we can combine that with Southee being in the best year of his T20I career - even though it's all in Aotearoa.
That context is important in setting up these two at a major tournament. We don't quickly associate these two with T20 cricket and the only slight negative about their careers is Southee's ODI/50-over mahi. Otherwise these two lads are as good in Test cricket as they are in T20 cricket and that vibe has me curious to their T20 World Cup impact.
Both have rolled out funky deliveries in recent years, specifically the 'three-quarter-seam' delivery that follows on straight instead of swing out/in. Both will have a quiver of change-up deliveries and they are the two kiwi bowlers best equipped to execute a planned line or length. T20 cricket is about match-ups and these two have that Williamson-like craft to handle any scenario.
I don't see a need to over complicate the bowling line up; Southee, Boult, Ferguson, Sodhi, Santner and Jimmy Neesham, possibly Glenn Phillips popping up for an over or two. That's the strongest line up, although Southee has now entered Kyle Jamieson territory of being far too expensive. Southee conceded 10.50rpo in the warm up game vs Australia, followed by 10.33 overnight vs England.
Jamieson's T20 mahi isn't very good with 2w in his last nine games. You can add Jamieson's 10.66rpo vs England to that tweet above and let's not forget his 11.66rpo in four games vs Australia to start this year. Had Jamieson been on fire in T20 cricket, I'd be more willing for him to bowl ahead of another seamer. Right now though I reckon the foundations are in a five-headed beast of Southee, Boult, Ferguson, Sodhi and Santner.
Southee and Boult have another Blackcaps staple in their favour with learning, growing and adapting key factors in tournament success. They probably won't be able to swing their way to wickets, opening up the wrinkle of these two showcasing a wide range of variations and clinical execution. This will not only give the Blackcaps the best chance of success at this T20 World Cup, this will also amplify the legacy of these legendary kiwi seamers.
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